Telecom Research, Forecasts & Analysis

6 Nov 2026 · Digital Regulation · Brief· NEW

New Zealand's LEO and Hyperscaler Regulatory Gap: The Case for Reform

: New Zealand's telecommunications regulatory challenge differs structurally from Australia's. The primary risk is operational, not fiscal. Chorus is publicly listed, and the UFB network covers approximately 87% of the population with gigabit-capable fibre. The exposure lies elsewhere: a civil defenc…

29 Oct 2026 · Telecom · Explainer

Channelling the Constellation: How Six Regulators Are Responding to Starlink

: This report examines how regulators in six markets, the European Union, India, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United Kingdom, are responding to the competitive threat that SpaceX's Starlink poses to local telecommunications operators. It covers both threats: Starlink's fixed satellite broad…

26 Oct 2026 · Telecom · Report

What Agentic and Physical AI Will Mean for Wholesale Networks and Regulation

: This report takes a ten-year view of how agentic AI and physical AI will reshape "North-South" demand in the fixed access network, as distinct from the "East-West" traffic generated in data centre interconnection. It examines what that means for wholesale products, market structure and regulation i…

19 Oct 2026 · Telecom · Report

Sovereignty Stack at Risk: Three Tech Dependencies That Threaten Australia

: Australia's digital economy now depends on three categories of infrastructure that are controlled, directly or indirectly, by US entities: frontier AI models, hyperscaler cloud and data centre services, and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite connectivity. Assessed individually, each dependency carries…

24 Sept 2026 · Telecom · Forecast

Australia Consumer Mobile Forecast 2026

: We expect consumer mobile revenue (both service and hardware) to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% over FY26/31. In FY26, we estimate that mobile constituted 63% of total consumer telecommunications revenue in Australia. We forecast this share will remain flat over the FY26/31 forecast period, as growth flows…

16 Sept 2026 · Telecom · Forecast

Australia Consumer Fixed Telecommunications Forecast 2026

: This report provides a comprehensive forecast and analysis of the Australian consumer fixed telecommunications market through 2031. It examines key drivers and trends across fixed broadband and voice-only services, including household penetration, ARPU dynamics, fixed wireless access growth, and sh…

2 Sept 2026 · Telecom · Report

FY26 ANZ Telecommunications Results: Refocus on AI Efficiency and Capital Redeployment

: This report examines the financial and strategic performance of the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications sectors in FY26. It explores how market participants are navigating a transition from traditional retail-centric competition toward advanced platform models, wholesale enablement, and i…

24 Aug 2026 · Enterprise ICT · Explainer

Quantum Cryptography Explainer: Technologies To Beat the Quantum Threat

: This report examines the accelerating threat of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers and the strategic imperatives for enterprise security architectures. It is a companion to our "ASD Accelerates Post-Quantum Timeline: Traditional Cryptography Faces 2030 Sunset" report. It details the Austr…

30 July 2026 · Telecom · Report

The Connectivity Trap: Why Telstra's Dominant Position May Be Its Greatest Strategic Liability

: The proposed Morrison Equity Partners acquisition of a 30% stake in Optus (at a reported ~6× EBITDA) is not simply an asset recycling event. It is a signal from Singtel's board that connectivity economics in Australia are a diminishing return on capital, and that the future belongs to the infrastru…

24 July 2026 · Telecom · Report

The Great AI Gamble: How Investors And Telcos Must Manage AI Capacity Uncertainty

: Australia's formal AEMO data centre pipeline totals 5.4 GW in grid connection applications. The IEA simultaneously says that energy per Al task is falling at least an order of magnitude annually. Those two facts imply that the pipeline is overbuilt. We think that reading is too quick. The same IEA…

9 July 2026 · Telecom · Report

How Regulation Squeezes Investment in Telco Network Resilience: What Needs to Change

: This week's Telstra outage has triggered an almost ritual cascade of condemnation from politics and media. But the Australian mobile network isn't getting more unreliable objectively. Rather, our dependence on it is growing. The only solution is more investment to meet this need. This report looks…

29 June 2026 · Telecom · Brief

Moose Mobile's TPG Shift Ignites Price War as MVNO Growth Slows

: Swoop Holdings' decision to move Moose Mobile's 135,000 subscribers from Optus to TPG Telecom aims to reduce wholesale costs and boost margins by 50%. This migration, however, introduces significant churn risk in a maturing MVNO market, where growth is projected to slow to 3-4% by FY31. The move ha…