Telecom Research, Forecasts & Analysis

29 June 2026 · Telecom · Brief

Moose Mobile's TPG Shift Ignites Price War as MVNO Growth Slows

: Swoop Holdings' decision to move Moose Mobile's 135,000 subscribers from Optus to TPG Telecom aims to reduce wholesale costs and boost margins by 50%. This migration, however, introduces significant churn risk in a maturing MVNO market, where growth is projected to slow to 3-4% by FY31. The move ha…

27 Nov 2025 · Telecom · Brief

Time to Abolish the Regional Broadband Scheme?

: News has emerged today that the Minister for Communications has approved an ACCC recommendation to reduce the Regional Broadband Levy from $8.46 to only $2.17 per month per broadband line for 2025-26. Despite its name, the Levy is actually paid by nbn Co’s urban fibre infrastructure competitors. In…

14 Nov 2025 · Telecom · Brief

TPG's Strategic Shift to Telecom Sustainability

: This brief looks into the strategic shift of TPG Telecom towards an asset-light business model, and how this transition can improve return on investment and shareholder value following its significant infrastructure divestitures. Recent moves, including a $3 billion capital return strategy and a pr…

18 Sept 2025 · Telecom · Brief

FY25 results - Australian telco industry splits into four camps

: The 2025 financial year confirmed a great divergence in Australian telecommunications, where the sector's growth was overwhelmingly driven by challengers leveraging wholesale contracts and M&A to gain scale. While incumbents like Telstra and TPG focused on cost discipline and shareholder returns, c…

28 May 2025 · Telecom · Brief

Telstra’s Connected Future 30 drives a new industry narrative

: Telstra’s Investor Day announcement of its new Connected Future 30 Strategy is a watershed for the telecommunications industry. But this is not because there is anything new about AI technology or digital infrastructure. Telstra’s achievement is to craft these elements into a narrative of growth an…

27 Mar 2025 · Telecom · Brief

USO reform - the Budget dog that didn’t bark

: Abstract: This week’s Federal budget suggests stability for the USO program to the end of the decade. This is despite the impact of LEO satellite services in regional areas, which the Government plans to incorporate into the existing USO policy framework. In our view, this is a lost opportunity for…

14 Mar 2025 · Telecom · Brief

The tariff debate ignores Australia’s digital dependence

: Australia’s tariff debate is missing the real issue. Our dependence on US technology and digital services is the real economic vulnerability, not steel and aluminium. While we fixate on minor tariffs, Australia imports A$88.2 billion from the US while exporting only A$37.5 billion, with IP charges…

6 Mar 2025 · Telecom · Brief

TPG network sharing deal is lifting mobile competition

: TPG’s full year results announcement included remarks on the emerging impact of TPG’s recently activated network sharing deal with Optus. TPG reported significant boosts in prepaid and postpaid signups on the strength of its expanded network coverage and depth. We expect Telstra to be most affected…

28 Feb 2025 · Telecom · Brief

Mobile USO is obsolete before it has begun

: The Australian Government has announced that, for the first time, mobile will be subject to an Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation (UOMO). The aim is to ensure that LEO satellite technology is deployed to expand voice, text, and ultimately data connectivity as widely as possible. In our view, this…

20 Feb 2025 · Telecom · Brief

No surprises in Telstra’s improved 1H25 results

: Telstra’s 1H25 results were close to guidance. We see broadly stable trends in segment revenues, and a profitability boost from heavy cost cutting in response to last year’s slump. This has led to a recovery in profit margins which allows Telstra to justify ongoing network capex.

10 Feb 2025 · Telecom · Brief

DeepSeek’s Disruption – AI, Geopolitics, and Market Shifts

: DeepSeek has disrupted the global AI landscape, demonstrating that high-performance models can be developed at a fraction of the cost of Western alternatives. This breakthrough has triggered a US$1 trillion stock market sell-off, raising critical investment, regulatory, and national security concer…

12 Dec 2024 · Telecom · Brief

ACCC broadband stats show LEOSat potential - but also problems

: This report analyses the ACCC’s December 2024 Measuring Broadband Australia report, which benchmarks satellite broadband for the first time. While Starlink demonstrates high average download speeds, it exhibits significant performance variation and capacity limits during the 5pm to 10pm busy period…