Telecom Research, Forecasts & Analysis

What Agentic and Physical AI Will Mean for Wholesale Networks and Regulation

: This report takes a ten-year view of how agentic AI and physical AI will reshape "North-South" demand in the fixed access network, as distinct from the "East-West" traffic generated in data centre interconnection. It examines what that means for wholesale products, market structure and regulation i…

Sovereignty Stack at Risk: Three Tech Dependencies That Threaten Australia

: Australia's digital economy now depends on three categories of infrastructure that are controlled, directly or indirectly, by US entities: frontier AI models, hyperscaler cloud and data centre services, and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite connectivity. Assessed individually, each dependency carries…

FY26 ANZ Telecommunications Results: Refocus on AI Efficiency and Capital Redeployment

: This report examines the financial and strategic performance of the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications sectors in FY26. It explores how market participants are navigating a transition from traditional retail-centric competition toward advanced platform models, wholesale enablement, and i…

The Connectivity Trap: Why Telstra's Dominant Position May Be Its Greatest Strategic Liability

: The proposed Morrison Equity Partners acquisition of a 30% stake in Optus (at a reported ~6× EBITDA) is not simply an asset recycling event. It is a signal from Singtel's board that connectivity economics in Australia are a diminishing return on capital, and that the future belongs to the infrastru…

The Great AI Gamble: How Investors And Telcos Must Manage AI Capacity Uncertainty

: Australia's formal AEMO data centre pipeline totals 5.4 GW in grid connection applications. The IEA simultaneously says that energy per Al task is falling at least an order of magnitude annually. Those two facts imply that the pipeline is overbuilt. We think that reading is too quick. The same IEA…

How Regulation Squeezes Investment in Telco Network Resilience: What Needs to Change

: This week's Telstra outage has triggered an almost ritual cascade of condemnation from politics and media. But the Australian mobile network isn't getting more unreliable objectively. Rather, our dependence on it is growing. The only solution is more investment to meet this need. This report looks…

SpaceX’s Starlink Ambition: How LEOSat Threatens Telcos’ Grip on the ANZ Connectivity Market

: This report explores the impact of expanding Starlink LEOSat capacity in the ANZ market, and how domestic telecommunications operators in these markets will be affected by growing competition from Starlink broadband and mobile services.

New Spectrum Taxes: Why “Business As Usual” is a Perilous Assumption

: The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has finalised a $7.32 billion spectrum license renewal fee, a decision that has met with significant industry resistance. This report analyzes the disconnect between regulatory pricing models and the emerging reality of the digital economy, w…