Question 1

Is there any meaningful growth left in the Australian telco market?

Accepted Answer

Total market revenue is forecast to reach A$42.5 billion by 2020, but growth remains sluggish at a 1.6% CAGR. This modest expansion is primarily driven by mobile hardware and fixed broadband, which mask a terminal collapse in legacy high-margin services.

Question 2

How severe is the decline in traditional fixed-line services?

Accepted Answer

Fixed voice revenue is projected to contract at a sharp -10.4% CAGR through 2020. Blended ARPU will fall to A$28 as NBN-enabled VOIP bundling erodes the traditional PSTN margins that previously anchored incumbent profitability.

Question 3

What is actually driving the growth in the mobile sector?

Accepted Answer

Mobile revenue growth of 2.6% CAGR is almost entirely dependent on device turnover rather than service premiums. Hardware sales alone account for 72% of the sector's total growth, indicating that service revenue is effectively stagnating.

Question 4

How is the NBN rollout impacting market share for major players?

Accepted Answer

The transition is breaking the incumbent's grip on the home, with Telstra’s fixed broadband market share forecast to drop to 46% by 2020. Challengers like TPG and Optus are successfully using the 6.6% wholesale revenue growth to scale their footprint in regional markets.

Telco Market Outlook – NBN putting the squeeze on Fixed Voice

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