Question 1

Is there any meaningful growth left in the New Zealand market?

Accepted Answer

The market is largely stagnant, with total retail revenues forecast to reach NZ$5.5bn by 2023 at a marginal 0.4% CAGR. Growth is concentrated almost exclusively in the mobile segment, which is expected to account for 61% of total market revenue by the end of the forecast period.

Question 2

How quickly is the traditional landline business disappearing?

Accepted Answer

Fixed voice is in a state of terminal structural decline, contracting at an annual rate of 11.5% as users migrate to mobile and VoIP alternatives. Operators must pivot to high-speed broadband tiers to offset these losses, noting that 88% of fibre users already demand plans of 100Mbps or higher.

Question 3

Will 5G actually replace home fibre connections?

Accepted Answer

Wireless broadband poses a significant threat, with 18% of consumers expressing a willingness to ditch fixed lines for wireless alternatives within two years. In response, infrastructure providers are deploying Hyperfibre with speeds up to 4Gbps to maintain a performance lead over emerging 5G services.

Question 4

Which players are successfully taking market share from the big telcos?

Accepted Answer

Challenger brands and utility-telco hybrids are the primary disruptors, projected to capture a 28% share of total revenue by 2023. These providers are leveraging convergence and bundled services to attract price-sensitive customers in a low-growth environment.

New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

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Key Takeaways

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