New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

Mobile and fixed broadband emerge as the primary battlegrounds for competition as fixed voice services continue to fade away.

Vinay Chhoda · Venture Insights1 December 2017Period: FY1712 min read

Last updated 10 June 2026

NZ$3.5bn↑

Forecast Total Mobile Revenue (2021)

1.1%→

Retail Telco Market Revenue CAGR (FY17-21)

Locked

+2more stats

Companies covered:SparkVodafone NZChorus2degreesVocusTrustpowerMyRepublicSkyNetflixLightboxTVNZ

Abstract

This report provides a comprehensive outlook on the New Zealand telecommunications market, forecasting a shift toward mobile dominance and high-speed fiber adoption. While the overall retail market is expected to remain flat with a 1.1% CAGR through 2021, mobile revenues are projected to reach NZ$3.5 billion, driven by 4G/5G migration and post-paid plan growth. The analysis details the impact of the Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) rollout, regulatory reforms, and the competitive dynamics between incumbents and new energy-sector entrants.

Key Takeaways

The New Zealand retail telco market will remain largely flat with a 1.1% CAGR through 2021 as mobile growth offsets fixed voice decline.
Mobile revenue is the primary growth engine, forecast to reach NZ$3.5 billion by 2021 at a 6.2% CAGR.
Fixed voice continues a structural collapse, projected to shrink at a 13.3% CAGR and fall to just 13% of market share by 2021.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Overall market growth is marginal, with a projected 1.1% CAGR through 2021. However, mobile revenue serves as the primary engine, forecast to grow at a 6.2% CAGR to reach NZ$3.5 billion by 2021.

The UFB rollout is ahead of schedule and will reach 87% of the population by 2022. This infrastructure is driving a massive shift in consumption, with 62% of households already on unlimited data plans to support a 10-fold increase in data demand since 2012.

Fixed voice is in a state of structural collapse, expected to shrink at a 13.3% CAGR through 2021. By the end of the forecast period, fixed voice will account for only 13% of total telecommunications market revenue.

Yes, Spark is projected to see its fixed broadband market share decline from 57% in FY17 to 54% by FY21. This erosion is largely due to aggressive competition from new entrants in the energy sector.

New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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