Question 1

Is the New Zealand market finally growing again after the pandemic?

Accepted Answer

The market has entered a post-pandemic recovery phase, with total retail service revenue projected to reach NZ$4.48 billion by FY28. This represents a consistent 2.0% CAGR, driven by the stabilization of international roaming and steady population growth.

Question 2

What is the primary driver behind increasing broadband revenues?

Accepted Answer

Fixed broadband revenue will expand at a 3.8% CAGR to reach NZ$1.86 billion by FY28. This growth is fueled by CPI-linked wholesale price increases and a rapid migration to premium tiers, with 57.4% of mass-market fibre users already on 300 Mbps plans.

Question 3

How dominant is mobile compared to fixed-line services?

Accepted Answer

Mobile is the primary revenue engine, forecast to capture a 55% share of the total New Zealand telco market by FY28. Mobile service revenue will grow at a 2.1% CAGR to NZ$2.46 billion, supported by a handset penetration rate of 124%.

Question 4

Is there any remaining value in traditional landline services?

Accepted Answer

Fixed voice is in a terminal structural decline, with revenues expected to plummet to NZ$164 million by FY28. Operators must accelerate the migration of the remaining user base to mobile or VoIP alternatives to manage this transition.

Question 5

How are operators improving margins in a mature market?

Accepted Answer

Operators are aggressively utilizing Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) to bypass wholesale payments and capture higher margins. Spark has already achieved a 30% FWA share of its own broadband connection base as of June 2023.

New Zealand Telco Market Forecast & Outlook 2023

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