Question 1

What is the projected growth for the New Zealand mobile sector over the next few years?

Accepted Answer

Total mobile revenue is forecast to reach NZ$3.2 billion by 2022, expanding at a 3.1% CAGR. This growth is primarily driven by a structural shift in the connection mix, with the postpaid segment expected to rise from 51% in 2018 to 57% by 2022.

Question 2

Which major players are gaining or losing ground in the current competitive environment?

Accepted Answer

Vodafone NZ is at the highest risk of contraction, with its subscriber market share projected to drop from 40% to 37% by 2022. Conversely, 2degrees is successfully capturing market share through an aggressive focus on high-value postpaid subscribers.

Question 3

How is the massive increase in data consumption affecting operator margins?

Accepted Answer

While mobile data usage has surged 25x over the last six years, blended ARPUs are expected to remain stagnant at NZ$30 through 2022. Competitive pricing pressure and the need to subsidize 4G and 5G migrations are offsetting the revenue gains from higher data consumption.

Question 4

Is there a significant appetite for 5G among New Zealand consumers?

Accepted Answer

Consumer demand is robust, with over 30% of survey respondents indicating they intend to migrate to 5G services within two years of launch. This provides a critical window for operators to capture early adopters and potentially improve ARPU through premium tiering.

Question 5

What is the current state of the wholesale and MVNO market?

Accepted Answer

MVNO penetration is currently anemic at just 1% of the total market. However, a pending review by the Commerce Commission represents a potential catalyst that could force greater network access and stimulate growth in this underdeveloped segment.

New Zealand Mobile Market Outlook

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Key Takeaways

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