What is the total growth opportunity in the New Zealand consumer mobile sector over the next five years?

Total consumer mobile revenue will expand at a 2.6% CAGR through FY29, reaching a market value of NZ$2,734 million. Growth is concentrated in mobile service revenue, which will outpace the general market with a 3.7% CAGR to reach NZ$1,926 million.

How is the revenue mix between different contract types changing?

The market is undergoing a structural migration from prepaid to postpaid, with the latter expected to account for 49% of all service revenue by FY29. This transition is the primary catalyst for blended consumer ARPU rising from NZ$26.5 in FY24 to NZ$30.6 by the end of the forecast period.

Is there any remaining room for subscriber volume growth?

The market has reached a saturation point with population penetration for consumer handsets stabilizing at 96%. Operators must pivot from volume-based acquisition to value-based migration, as hardware revenues are projected to contract at a 0.3% CAGR due to extended device lifecycles.

Which operators are expected to shift the competitive landscape?

While the overall market structure remains stable, 2degrees and MVNOs are forecast to achieve modest gains in connection share at the expense of incumbents. Success for these players will be measured against a total service revenue pool projected to hit NZ$1,926 million by FY29.

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New Zealand Consumer Mobile Forecast 2025

Mobile service revenue will grow at a 3.7% CAGR as the market shifts from prepaid to postpaid plans and 5G adoption scales.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights15 May 2025Period: FY256 min read

2.6%↑

Forecast CAGR for total consumer mobile revenue over the FY24/29 period

NZ$2,734m↑

Projected total consumer mobile revenue in New Zealand by FY29

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Abstract

The lack of detailed operational data from privately held telecommunications companies that are now a majority of the market makes a full bottom-up approach to the historical data set impracticable. Our historical data set now relies heavily on the Commerce Commission’s (ComCom’s) annual monitoring reports and its annual telecommunications survey for connection, revenue, and technology data. We rely on StatsNZ projections for population and households, and RBNZ projections for CPI and economic growth. All forecasting is based on a June year end. All dollar amounts are NZ$.

Key Takeaways

Total consumer mobile revenue is forecast to grow at a 2.6% CAGR from FY24 to FY29, reaching NZ$2,734 million.
Mobile service revenue will outperform the broader market with a 3.7% CAGR, reaching NZ$1,926 million by the end of the forecast period.
The market is seeing a structural shift from prepaid to postpaid, with postpaid expected to account for 49% of service revenue by FY29.

New Zealand Consumer Mobile Forecast 2025

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Methodology

Introduction and methodology

NZ consumer mobile market forecast

Consumer shares by operator

Consumer shares by contract type

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Methodology

Introduction and methodology

NZ consumer mobile market forecast

Consumer shares by operator

Consumer shares by contract type

Frequently Asked Questions

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