Is the New Zealand fixed market actually growing or just stagnating?

The market is expanding at a 2.5% CAGR, reaching a total value of NZ$2,172 million by FY29. This growth is entirely underpinned by the broadband segment, which will offset the collapse of legacy services to reach NZ$2,152 million in revenue.

What is the outlook for legacy voice services?

Standalone voice is in terminal decline, with revenue projected to plummet from NZ$98 million in FY24 to just NZ$20 million by FY29. The total phase-out of copper infrastructure within the UFB footprint by FY26 will force the final migration of these customers to fibre or mobile alternatives.

Who is currently winning the market share battle?

Incumbents are under pressure as Spark’s broadband connection share is forecast to contract to 31% by FY29. Challengers like 2degrees and energy-sector entrants like Mercury are successfully capturing share from Spark and One NZ.

Is Fixed Wireless Access still a major growth engine?

FWA reached a 19% penetration rate in 2023, but the segment is now approaching saturation. Future revenue growth will rely more on CPI-linked price adjustments and migration to higher-speed tiers rather than net new FWA connections.

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New Zealand Consumer Fixed Forecast 2025

Broadband revenue growth of 3.4% CAGR will offset the structural decline of voice-only services through FY29.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights15 May 2025Period: FY258 min read

2.5%↑

CAGR for total NZ consumer fixed market revenue FY24-29

NZ$2,152m↑

Forecast consumer fixed broadband revenue in FY29

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Abstract

This report provides a detailed analysis and five-year forecast for the New Zealand consumer fixed telecommunications market. It examines the diverging paths of the fixed broadband and voice-only segments, highlighting a 3.4% CAGR for broadband revenue against a sharp 27.4% decline in standalone voice. The analysis explores key market drivers including CPI-linked price adjustments, the phase-out of copper infrastructure, and the competitive dynamics between incumbent operators and rising challengers in the energy and satellite sectors.

Key Takeaways

The total New Zealand consumer fixed market is forecast to grow at a 2.5% CAGR from FY24 to FY29, reaching NZ$2,172 million.
Fixed broadband revenue is expected to grow at a 3.4% CAGR, driven by CPI-linked wholesale price increases and migration to higher speed plans.
Consumer fixed voice-only services are in structural decline, with revenue projected to fall from NZ$98m in FY24 to just NZ$20m by FY29.

New Zealand Consumer Fixed Forecast 2025

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Introduction and methodology

Methodology

NZ consumer fixed voice-only market forecast

NZ consumer fixed broadband market forecast

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Introduction and methodology

Methodology

NZ consumer fixed voice-only market forecast

NZ consumer fixed broadband market forecast

Frequently Asked Questions

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