NBN RSP Outlook –Australia’s next oligopoly

This report analyses the structural shift in the Australian telecommunications market as the NBN rollout progresses. It forecasts a transition toward an oligopolistic market where 3-4 players dominate over 95% of market share. The analysis highlights how the uniform wholesale access price removes traditional on-net margin advantages, forcing RSPs to differentiate through content bundling, customer service, and scale. Key impacts include significant margin erosion for incumbents like Telstra and TPG, while off-net players like M2 are positioned for margin improvement.