Question 1

Is NBN actually growing or has it hit a ceiling?

Accepted Answer

Growth has slowed significantly, with net connection gains of just 45,000 in FY24 and 34,000 in FY23. This performance leaves the total installed base at 8.801 million, missing previous forecasts that targeted a 9.0 million user milestone.

Question 2

Where will the projected growth come from in the next three years?

Accepted Answer

The FY27-FY29 strategy relies on capturing the 15% of Australian households that currently lack any fixed broadband connection. Success depends on an aggressive acceleration in greenfields FTTP take-up and converting users within the fixed wireless footprint.

Question 3

How does NBN plan to improve its financial position if connection growth is weak?

Accepted Answer

NBN Co is targeting full cost recovery by FY31 by driving wholesale ARPU higher through customer upsells. The plan uses lower pricing on high-speed tiers to migrate the existing base to premium plans, offsetting the slow pace of new net additions.

Question 4

What are the primary threats to this connection forecast?

Accepted Answer

Mobile network operators and LEO satellite providers are actively eroding NBN’s brownfields footprint. This competition complicates the goal of connecting the remaining 15% of households that have opted out of fixed-line services to date.

NBN anticipates big lift in NBN connections

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