FWA keeps up the pressure on fixed broadband

NBN faces renewed competition as MNOs leverage pricing gaps and 5G performance to drive FWA adoption.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights27 September 2024Period: June 20244 min read

549,000↑

Total MNO FWA Subscribers (June 2024)

8%↑

Half-on-Half Growth in Total FWA Services

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Abstract

This report analyses the resurgence of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) in Australia, where subscriber growth reached its highest level since mid-2022. Following a slowdown in 2023, the market grew to 549,000 services by June 2024, driven by NBN wholesale price increases and aggressive MNO promotions. The brief forecasts that FWA could reach 900,000 services by FY28, placing significant competitive pressure on NBN Co's lower-tier plans and potentially triggering new regulatory interventions regarding the RBS levy and separation requirements.

Key Takeaways

FWA subscriber growth in the June 2024 half was the highest recorded since the June 2022 period.
Total FWA services reached 549,000 in June 2024, with TPG maintaining the largest share at 245,000 subscribers.
NBN wholesale price hikes for Basic and Standard tiers are driving consumers toward more stable-priced FWA alternatives.

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Frequently Asked Questions

NBN wholesale price increases for Basic and Standard tiers have created a significant price gap, allowing mobile operators to offer FWA plans with a $15-$20 monthly price advantage. This cost differential propelled the market to 549,000 total services by June 2024, the highest growth rate since mid-2022.

TPG remains the market leader with 245,000 subscribers, though Telstra is gaining rapid momentum. Telstra expanded its FWA base by 25% in the half ending June 2024, reaching 85,000 services as it prioritizes higher-margin on-net products over NBN resale.

The market is on a trajectory to reach 900,000 services by FY28. While this is a slight downward revision from previous million-subscriber estimates, the 8% half-on-half growth recorded in June 2024 confirms that FWA is a permanent and expanding fixture of the broadband landscape.

MNOs are aggressively promoting FWA because it offers superior on-net margins compared to the thin returns of NBN resale. By capturing 549,000 subscribers on their own infrastructure, operators are significantly improving their overall contribution to group profitability.

FWA keeps up the pressure on fixed broadband

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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