Question 1

How much of the current fixed-line customer base is actually at risk of moving to mobile-only plans?

Accepted Answer

Approximately 30% of Australian fixed broadband households are currently at risk of switching to wireless-only solutions. The threat is most acute among the 50% of users who consume less than 200GB per month, as these low-to-mid usage tiers are the primary targets for 5G substitution.

Question 2

What will the entry of a fourth mobile operator do to industry pricing and revenue?

Accepted Answer

TPG’s entry is expected to trigger a $2.8 billion loss in total mobile market revenue as they pursue a 12.5% to 20% market share. Competitors should prepare for ARPU compression between 20% and 50% resulting from this aggressive price competition.

Question 3

Is the shift toward mobile revenue a temporary trend or a structural change?

Accepted Answer

The shift is structural, with mobile services projected to account for 56% of total telco market revenue by 2021, up from 44% in 2011. This transition is being accelerated by 5G technology, which delivers a 10x increase in peak speeds compared to 4G.

Question 4

What is the long-term outlook for fixed broadband penetration if these trends continue?

Accepted Answer

Under a full fixed-mobile substitution scenario, fixed broadband penetration is forecast to collapse to 50% by 2025. This represents a significant retreat from the 81% household penetration rate recorded in 2017.

Telco Roundtable Breakfast – key findings: The impacts of fixed-mobile substitution

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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