Question 1

What is the growth outlook for broadband across the Tasman?

Accepted Answer

Australia’s fixed broadband market is valued at A$5.7 billion and is projected to grow at a 2.6% 5Y CAGR through 2024. New Zealand will see more modest growth of 1.6% over the same period, reaching a market value of NZ$1.48 billion in 2021.

Question 2

How much of a threat does 5G wireless pose to traditional fixed lines?

Accepted Answer

5G Fixed Wireless Access is a significant disruptor that is expected to capture 13% of Australian households by 2025. This migration will place direct downward pressure on the margins of wholesale providers like NBN Co and Chorus.

Question 3

Are retail service providers actually making money in this environment?

Accepted Answer

Profitability is under severe pressure, as evidenced by a 51.9% decline in Telstra’s fixed service EBITDA for its C&SB division in 2021. While the market is approaching an inflection point as migration concludes, value continues to transfer from retailers to wholesale infrastructure owners.

Question 4

Who currently dominates the retail landscape in these markets?

Accepted Answer

The Australian market is highly consolidated, with Telstra and TPG commanding a 70% subscriber share. In New Zealand, Spark and Vodafone NZ maintain a similar grip on the market with a combined 63% share.

Fixed Broadband in Australia and NZ: Industry Snapshot & Forecast

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