Is Fixed Wireless Access a legitimate long-term threat to fibre's market dominance?

No. While FWA is projected to reach a 23% market share by FY29, its utility is confined to price-sensitive users with legacy data requirements. As AI applications raise performance thresholds, fibre is expected to maintain a dominant 70% market share due to its superior capacity to handle symmetrical traffic.

How will the rise of AI change what customers actually pay for?

The market is shifting from 'good enough' connectivity to high-performance headroom, with the Fibre Max tier projected to capture 25% of the market by FY29. AI-driven demand for ultra-low latency and symmetrical bandwidth will make these the primary KPIs for high-value subscribers.

What should we do with our remaining copper and cable customers?

Legacy xDSL and cable assets are terminal, with their combined market share expected to collapse to just 3% by FY29. Operators must aggressively migrate these users to fibre to prevent churn to FWA and to prepare the subscriber base for AI-driven demand shocks.

How should we value our wireless versus fixed infrastructure assets?

Wireless assets face capacity constraints that make them tactical tools rather than strategic anchors in an AI-powered economy. Investors should prioritize fibre assets, which serve as a strategic hedge against uncertainty and are positioned to secure 70% of the total market through the end of the decade.

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Fibre versus FWA in the AI age

Fibre is projected to maintain over 70% market share through FY29 as AI applications shatter the 'good enough' FWA threshold.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights11 July 2025Period: FY256 min read

70%→

Projected combined fibre market share throughout the forecast period to FY29

25%↑

Projected market share for Fibre Max tier by FY29

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Abstract

This report provides a strategic analysis of New Zealand's fixed broadband market, repositioning the competitive dynamic between fibre and FWA within the context of the impending AI revolution. Our central thesis is that the current market, driven by a price-performance trade-off, represents a temporary state of play. The "good enough" value proposition of FWA is predicated on legacy usage patterns that will be rendered obsolete by AI-driven applications.

Key Takeaways

The New Zealand broadband market is shifting from a price-based skirmish to a strategic re-evaluation driven by AI demand.
Fibre is positioned as the ultimate strategic hedge due to its scalable capacity, low latency, and symmetrical bandwidth.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is viewed as a tactical instrument for monetising excess mobile capacity rather than a long-term fibre competitor.

Fibre versus FWA in the AI age

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

The AI Demand Shock

Part I: The Current Market: A Prelude to Disruption

Part II: The AI Prelude: Early Indicators of a Paradigm Shift?

Part III: Navigating the AI Demand Shock: Impact on Infrastructure

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

The AI Demand Shock

Part I: The Current Market: A Prelude to Disruption

Part II: The AI Prelude: Early Indicators of a Paradigm Shift?

Part III: Navigating the AI Demand Shock: Impact on Infrastructure

Frequently Asked Questions

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