Question 1

Is there any actual growth left in the Australian retail market?

Accepted Answer

The total retail market is entering a period of contraction, with a forecast -0.6% CAGR through 2023. While mobile revenue will reach $21.2bn, this growth is insufficient to offset the structural collapse of fixed voice and a -3.6% CAGR decline in the corporate data and IP sector.

Question 2

Can we rely on 5G to drive higher average revenue per user?

Accepted Answer

Consumer resistance to 5G premiums is hardening, with 54% of respondents now unwilling to pay extra for the service, up from 43% in 2019. Revenue growth in mobile will instead be driven by M2M connectivity, which is projected to grow at a 16.9% CAGR through 2023.

Question 3

What is the outlook for the fixed-line business?

Accepted Answer

Fixed broadband remains a modest growth area with a 2.8% CAGR, reaching a $6.0bn valuation by 2023. However, fixed voice is in terminal decline, contracting at -18.6% annually and expected to hold just a 4% market share by the end of the forecast period.

Question 4

How will the TPG-Vodafone merger impact market pricing?

Accepted Answer

The merged TPG-VHA entity is expected to prioritize price stability over aggressive market share acquisition. This shift supports a mobile sector that will account for 60% of total retail telecommunications revenue by 2023, even as handset revenue remains flat.

Australian Telecommunications Market Outlook

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