Which providers are currently winning the most market share?

Smaller challenger brands are outperforming incumbents by leveraging aggressive pricing on high-speed tiers. Superloop saw its SIO growth rate accelerate from 5.8% to 9.2% in late 2024, while Vocus (Dodo) achieved 2.1% quarterly growth through targeted discounting.

How are the major incumbents responding to this aggressive competition?

Telstra and Optus are prioritizing margin preservation over volume, resulting in market share losses despite rising revenue per user. Telstra’s RSP ARPU reached $86.6 in the December 2024 half, even as price-sensitive customers migrated toward cheaper challenger offers.

What is the typical discount required to attract new broadband customers today?

RSPs are currently deploying introductory discounts ranging from $10 to $30 per month for the first 6 to 12 months of service. These front-end offers are the primary driver of churn, as consumers frequently switch providers or downgrade to NBN 25 plans to maintain those $10 to $30 monthly savings once promotions expire.

Will the current price war subside in the near term?

Heavy discounting will remain the dominant competitive tool throughout 2025 as challengers seek the scale necessary for long-term viability. The market is adjusting to NBN Co’s July 2024 wholesale changes, which structurally increased retail prices for NBN 25 and 50 plans while lowering the floor for high-speed tiers.

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Australian NBN discounting drives challenger growth

Challengers like Superloop and Vocus (Dodo) drive growth through aggressive 6-12 month discounts on high-speed NBN tiers.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights4 April 2025Period: Q4 FY24 to Q2 FY256 min read

9.2%↑

Superloop SIO growth rate in December 2024

2.1%↑

Vocus (Dodo) quarterly SIO growth in December 2024

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Abstract

We saw significant re-balancing of retail broadband prices in July 2024, driven by nbn Co’s changes to its wholesale price structure (see our report “AU Consumer Telco Pricing – Q4 FY24 Update”). High speed plans were down, and low speed plans up. Since then we have seen price stability, with Belong and TPG/iiNet the only retail service providers (RSPs) to lift prices. These uniform price rises were more of a re-basing than a re-balancing. But headline price stability disguises a trend towards heavy discounting, especially of plans at 100 Mbps or higher. This was led by Optus, Superloop, and Vocus (Dodo) but more operators are now joining the fray. The overall result is that the smaller challengers are attracting more customers.

Key Takeaways

NBN Co wholesale price changes in July 2024 led to retail price increases for NBN 25 and NBN 50 plans.
Incumbents Telstra and Optus have lost broadband market share over the last two years while gaining ARPU.
Challengers like Superloop and Vocus (Dodo) are gaining share by offering aggressive discounts on high-speed plans.

Australian NBN discounting drives challenger growth

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Incumbents losing broadband share, gaining ARPU

Headline broadband prices - calm after the storm

Discounting accelerating into 2025

Why does this matter?

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Incumbents losing broadband share, gaining ARPU

Headline broadband prices - calm after the storm

Discounting accelerating into 2025

Why does this matter?

Frequently Asked Questions

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