Question 1

Is the growth period for independent mobile resellers coming to an end?

Accepted Answer

Yes. While the sector reached 3.4 million subscribers in 2019, we forecast a sharp contraction in MVNO market share from 15% in FY20 to just 6% by 2023. Independent players are being systematically squeezed by MNO-owned sub-brands and aggressive consolidation.

Question 2

How are major carriers reacting to the demand for budget plans?

Accepted Answer

Tier-1 operators are internalizing the discount market through acquisitions and sub-brands like Felix and Gomo to retain the 70% of users who prioritize price. Optus’ acquisition of Amaysim is a defensive move designed to prevent the loss of price-conscious customers to external competitors.

Question 3

What is the outlook for wholesale 5G access?

Accepted Answer

The transition has begun with Optus and TPG making 5G available as a wholesale product. Telstra is positioned to lead this segment, with its wholesale mobile subscriber market share projected to reach 56% following recent M&A activity.

Question 4

Are consumers still interested in switching providers despite the market shifts?

Accepted Answer

Consumer movement remains high, but the destination is changing. Approximately 37% of respondents planning to switch are now looking at a mix of MVNOs and MNO-owned sub-brands, indicating a shift away from purely independent providers.

MVNO Update: Has the Australian MVNO market peaked?

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