What is the total revenue opportunity in the Australian mobile market over the next five years?

Total consumer mobile revenue is projected to grow at a 3.6% CAGR, increasing from $15,465 million in FY24 to $18,529 million by FY29. Service revenue will be the primary driver, expanding at a faster 4.7% CAGR to reach $14.3 billion.

Are price increases from major carriers translating into higher revenue per user?

Yes, blended ARPU is forecast to grow at a 2.0% CAGR through FY29, fueled by price adjustments from Telstra, Optus, and TPG. This growth ensures mobile services maintain a dominant 65% share of total consumer telecommunications revenue.

How much market share are budget-friendly providers expected to take from the big three?

MVNOs are set to expand their footprint significantly, with their share of mobile connections rising from 15% in FY24 to 20% by FY29. This shift is driven by households seeking lower-cost alternatives as handset penetration nears a saturation point of 96%.

Should we expect a recovery in smartphone and hardware sales?

Hardware revenue growth will remain sluggish at a 0.6% CAGR through FY29 due to consumers opting for longer handset renewal cycles. This represents a significant decoupling from service revenue, which is growing nearly eight times faster than hardware sales.

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Australia Consumer Mobile Forecast 2025

Mobile service revenue will grow at a 4.7% CAGR to $14.3bn by FY29, driven by price rises and 5G migration.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights27 June 2025Period: FY256 min read

3.6%↑

CAGR for total consumer mobile revenue (service and hardware) through FY29

4.7%↑

CAGR for consumer mobile service revenue reaching $14,301m in FY29

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Abstract

All forecasting is based on a June year end. All dollar amounts are AU$.

Key Takeaways

Total consumer mobile revenue is expected to grow from $15,465m in FY24 to $18,529m in FY29.
Mobile service revenue will outperform the broader market with a 4.7% CAGR, reaching $14.3bn.
MVNOs are projected to capture significant connection share, rising from 15% in FY24 to 20% by FY29.

Australia Consumer Mobile Forecast 2025

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Methodology

Introduction and methodology

Australia consumer mobile market forecast

Consumer shares by operator

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Methodology

Introduction and methodology

Australia consumer mobile market forecast

Consumer shares by operator

Frequently Asked Questions

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