2024 Telco trends to watch

Telcos navigate a complex 2024 defined by pricing dilemmas, NBN copper exit strategies, and a heavy government inquiry agenda.

Heath Gibson · Executive Manager – Industry Intelligence and Insights at NBN Australia2 February 2024Period: Q1 20244 min read

1.5%↑

YoY increase in telecoms equipment and services prices

4.1%→

Overall Australian inflation rate (CPI)

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Companies covered:

Abstract

This report identifies three critical areas shaping the Australian telecommunications landscape in 2024: fraught pricing strategies, NBN's transition beyond the Special Access Undertaking (SAU), and a dense government inquiry agenda. While telcos have recently implemented 'more for more' price increases, falling inflation to 4.1% YoY creates a dilemma for further hikes. The analysis explores NBN's focus on greenfield growth and the potential for a definitive copper exit plan, alongside regulatory responses to major industry incidents like the Optus outage.

Key Takeaways

Telecoms pricing in 2024 is increasingly fraught as the 1.5% YoY sector price growth lags the 4.1% general CPI, limiting the scope for further hikes.
NBN Co is shifting focus to greenfield developments and high-speed customer upselling to drive ARPU growth following the SAU resolution.
A definitive 'copper exit' plan for FTTN and FTTC services is a key milestone to watch for in the second half of 2024.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Scope for further price hikes is narrowing as the 1.5% YoY growth in telecom services significantly lags the 4.1% general CPI. Telcos must pivot from simple 'more for more' increases to targeted ARPU growth through high-speed tier migration.

The second half of 2024 will see the release of a definitive copper exit plan for FTTN and FTTC services. This transition is central to NBN Co's post-SAU strategy of driving revenue through greenfield developments and fiber upgrades.

The regulatory agenda is exceptionally dense with 5 major government inquiries currently active or commencing. These reviews focus on network resilience following the Optus outage and the modernization of the Universal Service Obligation through 2030.

New regulations are expected to treat mobile coverage as a standard utility, similar to water or electricity. Property developers will likely be mandated to incorporate mobile connectivity into the initial planning and approval stages of all new projects.

2024 Telco trends to watch

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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