Question 1

What is the total revenue potential for the New Zealand mobile market over the next few years?

Accepted Answer

The market is forecast to reach NZ$3.6 billion in total revenue by 2021, maintaining its status as the largest segment in the national telecommunications industry. Service revenues specifically are projected to grow at a 7.3% CAGR, reaching NZ$3.05 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Question 2

Which major players are expected to gain or lose market share?

Accepted Answer

2degrees is positioned as the primary disruptor, with its revenue share forecast to reach 28% and subscriber share to hit 25% by 2021. In contrast, Vodafone NZ is expected to see its revenue share erode from 39% to 36% as competition intensifies in the high-ARPU business and postpaid sectors.

Question 3

How is consumer behavior shifting between prepaid and postpaid plans?

Accepted Answer

There is a significant structural migration toward higher-value plans, with postpaid connections forecast to represent 56% of the market by 2021, up from 47% in 2016. This shift is a primary driver in reaching the projected blended mobile ARPU of NZ$33.

Question 4

What is the outlook for mobile data and emerging connectivity like IoT?

Accepted Answer

Mobile data consumption has surged 25-fold in six years, and 4G users now consume twice as much data as those on older networks. Additionally, the M2M and IoT sector is a high-growth vertical, with revenues expected to expand at an 18.5% CAGR through 2021.

Question 5

Is the market open to new virtual mobile competitors?

Accepted Answer

Currently, MVNO penetration is extremely low, accounting for less than 0.5% of the retail market in 2016. This lack of diversity has triggered a Commerce Commission competition review scheduled for 2018, which may alter the wholesale landscape.

New Zealand Mobile Market Outlook

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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