Question 1

Is the NBN's dominance in the residential market actually shrinking?

Accepted Answer

Yes. For the first time, TC-4 active connections declined by approximately 9,000 services in the December 2022 quarter. This contraction signals that alternative technologies like LEO satellites and independent fibre are successfully siphoning off the NBN's traditional user base.

Question 2

How are the major telcos performing against smaller competitors?

Accepted Answer

The traditional 'big four' are losing ground to agile challengers, with 'Other' retail providers achieving a 46.2% CAGR over the last two years. Optus, for instance, has seen its NBN connection growth rate drop at a -4.6% CAGR over the same period.

Question 3

Is the rural broadband market changing?

Accepted Answer

Rural connectivity is shifting away from legacy infrastructure as NBN satellite connections dropped from a peak of 110,000 to 102,000 by late 2022. This decline is driven by the rapid adoption of LEO satellite alternatives that offer superior performance to traditional NBN satellite services.

Question 4

What is NBN Co's strategy to offset these residential losses?

Accepted Answer

With household growth stagnating at -0.1% quarterly, NBN Co is pivoting its focus toward the enterprise segment to protect its revenue base. This move will increase direct competitive pressure on established business-grade telcos and infrastructure providers.

NBN connections decline shows rising competition

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