Question 1

How much growth is left in the Australian mobile market?

Accepted Answer

Total revenue is forecast to reach A$22.2bn by 2021, growing at a 3.6% CAGR. While the market is mature, growth is being sustained by a transition toward 5G and service-driven models rather than simple connectivity.

Question 2

What is the expected impact of TPG entering as the fourth operator?

Accepted Answer

TPG’s entry, supported by a A$1.26bn spectrum acquisition, will disrupt the incumbent triopoly to claim a 3% revenue share and 4% subscriber share by 2021. This heightened competition is a key factor in the projected 3.5% annual decline in mobile ARPU to A$37.

Question 3

Where should we look for new revenue outside of traditional voice and data?

Accepted Answer

M2M and IoT services represent the most significant growth vertical, with revenues expected to grow at an 18% CAGR to reach A$489m by 2021. Additionally, incumbents are investing heavily in content to differentiate, exemplified by Optus’ A$189m English Premier League deal.

Question 4

How does Australia compare globally in terms of mobile infrastructure?

Accepted Answer

Australia currently leads the world in mobile connectivity, ranking first in the GSMA Mobile Connectivity Index with a score of 84.7. This robust infrastructure supports a high mobile penetration rate, which is forecast to reach 157% (excluding M2M) by 2021.

Mobile Telco Market Outlook

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