Question 1

Is the Australian telecommunications market finally returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory?

Accepted Answer

The market will not return to pre-pandemic revenue levels within the current forecast period, as the total retail telco market is limited to a marginal 0.3% CAGR through FY26. Total retail revenue is projected to reach $32.0bn by FY26, constrained by the terminal decline of legacy services.

Question 2

What is the outlook for traditional landline and voice revenues?

Accepted Answer

Fixed voice is in a state of rapid structural collapse, with revenue forecast to contract at 11.9% annually through FY26. This decline is permanent as consumers and businesses finalize the transition to mobile-only or VoIP solutions.

Question 3

Where should operators look for revenue growth in the mobile sector?

Accepted Answer

Growth is concentrated in 5G adoption and ARPU uplift, which will drive mobile revenues to $17.9bn by FY26. With mobile handset penetration reaching 100% by 2026, revenue gains must come from premium tier migration rather than subscriber volume.

Question 4

How is the fixed broadband market evolving now that the NBN rollout is complete?

Accepted Answer

Fixed broadband revenue will grow at a 2.3% CAGR, increasing its total market share from 17% in FY20 to 21% by FY26. Competition is intensifying in the fixed wireless segment, which is forecast to capture an 8% share of the household market by FY26.

Question 5

What is the scale of the wholesale and infrastructure opportunity?

Accepted Answer

The wholesale market will reach $8.8bn by FY26 as infrastructure monetization accelerates across the industry. Recent benchmarks, such as Telstra's $2.8bn Amplitel stake sale, indicate a permanent shift toward asset-light retail models and specialized infrastructure ownership.

Australia Telco Market Forecast & Outlook

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Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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