How rapidly is fixed wireless broadband expanding in the Australian market?

Growth is accelerating significantly, with the market adding 55,000 subscribers in the December 2024 half alone. Telstra led this expansion with 54% half-on-half growth, positioning the sector to reach 900,000 total subscribers by FY28.

Is the New Zealand market still a viable growth opportunity for wireless providers?

The New Zealand market is mature with FWA already capturing a 20% share of total broadband as of June 2023. While Spark’s growth now aligns with population increases, lower penetration at One NZ and 2degrees suggests specific segments remain open for capture.

What is the primary driver behind consumers switching from fixed-line to wireless?

Widening price gaps between FWA and entry-level NBN plans are the primary catalyst for migration. This pricing pressure is expected to drive FWA to a 10% share of the total Australian broadband market by FY28.

Which specific carriers are currently dominating the shift toward FWA?

TPG and Telstra are the current leaders, securing 18,000 and 17,000 new subscribers respectively in the most recent half. These gains contribute to a trajectory where FWA will likely command 10% of the Australian market within four years.

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ANZ FWA growth challenges NBN and UFB

FWA penetration reaches 20% in New Zealand as Australian MNOs report accelerated subscriber growth in late 2024.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights11 April 2025Period: H2 FY246 min read

20%→

FWA share of the New Zealand broadband market (June 2023)

10%↑

Plausible FWA share of Australian broadband by FY28

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Abstract

Australia’s NBN and New Zealand’s UFB providers face rising competition from various sources, including competitive fibre, LEO satellites, and MNO fixed wireless providers. In Australia FWA growth is picking up, continuing to pressure NBN. A 10% FWA share of broadband by FY28 remains plausible. In the more mature New Zealand market, penetration is higher at around 20% of the broadband market. Spark data shows that its FWA growth now approximates population growth. However, One NZ and 2degrees’ relatively low share of FWA connections suggest there may be more growth available. The rise of FWA threatens NBN and Chorus with subscriber losses, pricing pressure, and potential asset underutilisation, particularly in price-sensitive or urban markets. However, their fixed-line networks offer unmatched reliability and capacity, creating opportunities to target premium customers, support FWA backhaul, and drive economic benefits. By adapting pricing, accelerating fibre, and exploring partnerships, both operators can mitigate risks and carve out a complementary role alongside FWA in Australia and New Zealand’s broadband markets.

Key Takeaways

Australian FWA growth is accelerating, with a 10% market share of total broadband plausible by FY28.
New Zealand's FWA market is more mature, currently sitting at approximately 20% penetration.
TPG and Telstra led Australian FWA growth in the Dec-24 half, adding 18k and 17k subscribers respectively.

ANZ FWA growth challenges NBN and UFB

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

FWA pricing gap driving takeup?

Threat to NBN and UFB

Opportunities for NBN and Chorus

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

FWA pricing gap driving takeup?

Threat to NBN and UFB

Opportunities for NBN and Chorus

Frequently Asked Questions

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