Question 1

Is the total Australian video market expanding?

Accepted Answer

The market is stagnant, forecast to reach A$5.4 billion by 2020 with a marginal -0.4% CAGR. While digital segments are growing rapidly, they are insufficient to drive overall market expansion as they primarily cannibalize existing physical and premium pay-TV revenue.

Question 2

How quickly is the shift from traditional TV to streaming occurring?

Accepted Answer

The transition is aggressive, with xVOD services forecast to grow from 5% to 21% of the total market share by 2020. SVOD revenue specifically will expand at a 33% CAGR to reach A$848 million, driven by a surge to 4.5 million subscribers.

Question 3

What is the outlook for high-end pay-TV providers?

Accepted Answer

Premium Pay-TV faces significant headwinds, with revenue set to contract at a 4% CAGR through 2020. Household penetration will drop to 25%, forcing providers to defend an A$86 ARPU in an increasingly fragmented competitive landscape.

Question 4

Does digital growth compensate for the loss in physical media sales?

Accepted Answer

Digital growth fails to fully offset traditional losses due to a 10% revenue deflation leak. For every A$1.00 of traditional spending lost, only A$0.90 is recovered in xVOD spend, while physical media revenue continues to decline at a 10% CAGR.

Video Market Outlook – Physical makes way for Digital

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