Video Entertainment Market Forecast & Outlook 2023

SVOD revenues are forecast to grow at a 7.4% CAGR through FY28, driven by rising penetration and ARPU increases.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights1 December 2023Period: FY238 min read

Last updated 27 May 2026

3.9%↑

Total Australian video market CAGR (FY23-28)

$5.9bn↑

Forecast SVOD/IPTV revenue (FY28)

Locked

+1more stats

Companies covered:NetflixFoxtelDisney+Amazon PrimeStanParamount+BingeKayoOptus SportsYouTube PremiumFetchApple TV

Abstract

This report forecasts the Australian video entertainment market to grow at a 3.9% CAGR over FY23/28, reaching $9.2bn. Growth is primarily driven by the SVOD sector, which is expected to reach $5.9bn by FY28. Conversely, Premium Pay-TV and physical media continue to face structural declines, with Pay-TV revenues falling at a -4.1% CAGR. The analysis covers market share shifts among major players like Netflix, Disney+, and Foxtel, alongside recovery trends in the cinema sector following pandemic-related disruptions.

Key Takeaways

The Australian video market will reach $9.2bn by FY28, driven primarily by SVOD growth offsetting declines in Pay-TV and physical media.
SVOD revenues are forecast to grow at a 7.4% CAGR, reaching $5.9bn by FY28 as operators shift focus toward ARPU growth and profitability.
Premium Pay-TV revenues will fall at a -4.1% CAGR as Foxtel's subscriber base continues to decline despite modest price increases.

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Frequently Asked Questions

The total market is forecast to reach $9.2 billion by FY28, representing a 3.9% CAGR. This growth is almost entirely dependent on the SVOD sector, which will expand at a 7.4% CAGR to reach $5.9 billion.

Premium Pay-TV is in a period of structural decline, with revenues expected to contract at a -4.1% CAGR through FY28. This is driven by a -5.3% CAGR decline in the subscriber base that price increases have failed to offset.

Average annual household spend on video entertainment will increase from $742 in FY23 to $836 by FY28. This rise is supported by SVOD operators successfully driving ARPU toward a projected $17.1 monthly average.

Netflix remains the dominant player and is projected to hold an 18.5% market share by FY28. While Disney+ and Amazon are increasing competition, the market is shifting focus from subscriber volume to profitability and ARPU growth.

Video Entertainment Market Forecast & Outlook 2023

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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