Future of Australian Television Part II: Four Scenarios to 2035

This report develops an integrated set of long-term scenarios for the Australian free-to-air television market to 2035, and sets out the strategic implications for each stakeholder group along with the policy changes required. It builds on the transmission-and-spectrum analysis of a companion report by crossing two critical uncertainties -how the spectrum and transmission question is resolved, and whether broadcasters' digital pivot succeeds commercially - to produce four market-level outcomes. The report argues that the industry's transition needs to be managed: an unmanaged transition between broadcast and online delivery delivers the worst commercial and policy outcome for every stakeholder. Much hangs on whether the industry can execute its digital pivot; and in every case significant media-policy reform will be needed to accommodate an environment in which scale and partnership are essential to survival.