FTA TV viewing decline will ease, but wildcards still in play

Free-to-air television retains the highest monthly reach despite a shift toward streaming and short-form video content.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights23 February 2024Period: FY24-FY284 min read

2%↓

Forecast FTA viewing decline CAGR (FY24-FY28)

2%↑

Forecast SVOD per capita viewing CAGR (FY24-FY28)

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Abstract

This report analyses the shifting landscape of Australian video consumption, forecasting a moderation in the decline of Free-to-Air (FTA) television viewing to a 2% CAGR over the next five years. While broadcast investment faces pressure, FTA retains superior monthly reach compared to SVOD and AVOD platforms. The analysis explores how maturing subscription markets and the rise of short-form content create a more nuanced competitive environment for traditional broadcasters and digital incumbents alike.

Key Takeaways

FTA TV viewing decline is forecast to moderate to a 2% CAGR over the next five years as the market stabilizes.
Per capita FTA viewing currently remains higher than either AVOD or SVOD individually despite long-term declines.
SVOD viewing growth is slowing to a 2% CAGR as the market matures and operators shift focus toward profitability.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Yes, FTA television currently maintains higher per capita viewing than either AVOD or SVOD platforms individually. The rate of decline is stabilizing, with the forecast contraction moderating to a 2% CAGR through FY28.

The SVOD market has reached maturity, with per capita viewing growth slowing to a 2% CAGR as operators pivot from subscriber acquisition to profitability. This shift is likely to trigger industry consolidation as global players reassess the sustainability of local operations.

The potential reallocation of the 600MHz spectrum band to mobile telecommunications represents a significant downside risk. Losing this spectrum would prevent FTA broadcasters from delivering 4K resolution, ceding a critical quality advantage to digital competitors.

Current data indicates that DSP advertising delivers an effective consumer reach of only 36 cents per dollar. Traditional media may capture a valuation premium in this environment by offering editorial control that mitigates the brand risks associated with AI-generated deepfakes on social platforms.

FTA TV viewing decline will ease, but wildcards still in play

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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