Five-Year Media Industry Outlook 2024

Traditional media pivots to programmatic and on-demand delivery to stabilize revenues amid 0.9% GDP growth forecasts.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights4 September 2024Period: FY24-FY2812 min read

0.9%↓

Revised RBA Australian GDP growth estimate for 2024

0.1%↓

Revised NZ Treasury economic growth estimate for 2024

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Abstract

This report reviews the technology and market trends shaping the media industry in Australia and New Zealand over the next five years. It analyzes how traditional media is evolving into a hybrid model, combining broadcast delivery with targeted on-demand platforms to compete with 'born digital' players. Key focus areas include the impact of programmatic advertising, the role of generative AI in content production, and the regulatory challenges posed by global platforms amassing bottleneck power over advertising channels.

Key Takeaways

The ANZ media sector is entering a 'new normal' where traditional players must adopt hybrid broadcast and on-demand models to survive.
Economic headwinds are significant, with Australian GDP growth revised down to 0.9% for 2024, likely delaying media industry recovery until FY26.
BVOD is projected to account for 19% of total free-to-air viewing by FY27, creating a structural revenue shift from regional to metropolitan broadcasters.

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Frequently Asked Questions

A full recovery is delayed until FY26 due to significant economic headwinds in both Australia and New Zealand. Australian GDP growth estimates for 2024 have been revised down to 0.9%, while New Zealand Treasury forecasts growth of just 0.1%, stalling immediate sector expansion.

The transition is accelerating, with Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD) projected to reach a 19% share of total free-to-air viewing by FY27. This shift represents a structural revenue migration that favors metropolitan broadcasters over regional players.

Local players face a dominant duopoly, as YouTube and Facebook currently capture over two-thirds of all online display video advertising expenditure. To survive, traditional media must integrate programmatic advertising tools to access the long-tail market of smaller advertisers.

Generative AI is a double-edged sword that reduces production costs while simultaneously threatening content creation jobs and audience trust via deepfakes. Companies must deploy these tools strategically to offset the costs of a market where regional newsrooms are already facing significant downsizing.

Five-Year Media Industry Outlook 2024

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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