Breaking the Consensus: media futures in a fractured world

The first wave of structural change in media - driven by digital disruption, globalisation, and platform dominance - is now largely played out. But the next phase, Structural Change 2.0, is set to be even more extreme. Media markets now face a stark fork in the road: either near-total annihilation of traditional media at the hands of AI-driven global platforms, or a paradoxical swing back in favour of local players, supported by governments determined to protect national interests. The second Trump administration has thrown out the rulebook, acting as a catalyst for breaking away from the old political and economic consensus into a period of rapid and unpredictable transformation. Governments, no longer constrained by Consensus-era policies, will be free to respond in much more interventionist ways, prioritising national resilience over market purity and stepping in to reshape industries, including the media sector. IIn this report, we examine the implications for the media industry, government regulators, and investment community. In upcoming reports, we will explore different potential scenarios for media growth, complete with granular forecasts of media ad spending.