Breaking the Consensus - future media scenarios

Venture Insights has forecast media advertising outcomes for many years. Recent events suggest that greater uncertainty is coming, as the established Consensus about the post-Cold War period falls away (see our report “Breaking the Consensus – media futures in a fractured world”). Responding to this reality, we have reviewed our base case assumptions for media, and have developed several alternative scenarios that reflect potential shifts in the media ecosystem. These include three scenarios that respectively incorporate heightened economic nationalism (“Fortress Australia”), social conservatism (“Social Backlash”), and technocratic libertarianism (“AI-powered”). This report outlines these scenarios, and will support quantitative forecasting of their implications in subsequent reports. We invite you to get in touch if you’d like to explore what these scenarios mean for your specific segment of the media value chain - and how you can prepare to navigate what comes next.