Question 1

How significant is the projected market downturn for the coming year?

Accepted Answer

Total advertising expenditure is forecast to contract by 5.0% in FY24, a sharp reversal from the 19.4% growth recorded in FY22. This decline follows a stagnant FY23 and indicates a return to a tight correlation between ad spend and GDP.

Question 2

Is digital advertising still the primary driver of growth?

Accepted Answer

Digital currently commands 65.7% of the total market, but even this dominant sector is expected to see a slight contraction in FY24. Outdoor advertising has overtaken digital as the fastest-growing sector through FY27.

Question 3

What is the outlook for traditional media like television and cinema?

Accepted Answer

Television and print face ongoing structural declines through FY27 as audiences migrate to subscription models. Cinema revenue will fall in FY24 and is not expected to recover to FY22 levels until FY27, despite an 82.0% spend increase in CY2022.

Question 4

How sensitive is the advertising market to current economic policy?

Accepted Answer

The sector is now highly sensitive to RBA interest rate decisions due to its close correlation with consumer confidence and GDP. Recent SMI data shows a 10.0% year-on-year decline in AdEx for December, highlighting the immediate impact of macroeconomic tightening.

Advertising Expenditure forecast: expect a rough FY24

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