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Escalating US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada threaten global growth, yet Australia's low trade exposure offers a unique
David Kennedy · Venture Insights
Last updated
Potential reduction in global GDP over three years due to economic fragmentation
Projected decline in US GDP by year three under a 10% tariff scenario
The OECD has downgraded global GDP growth due to escalating trade tensions, primarily driven by U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. Financial markets have sharply declined, while the risk of a U.S. recession continues to rise. The real threat is its dependence on U.S. tech giants, which imposes substantial economic costs outside traditional trade figures (see our report “The tariff debate ignores Australia’s digital dependence”). Australia will not escape the effects of the economic slowdown. What makes us see this as an opportunity? Australia’s low trade exposure to the U.S. market gives it freedom to respond that other countries lack. With global uncertainty growing, Australia has the opportunity to adopt a more strategic trade and technology policy to safeguard its economic future.
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