Is the greenfield broadband opportunity going to improve?

Housing data suggests a turning point for greenfield broadband, though NBN Co's reduced reporting will obscure market share

Heath Gibson · Executive Manager – Industry Intelligence and Insights at NBN Australia19 July 2024Period: Q1 20244 min read

Last updated 6 May 2026

+0.7%↑

Increase in dwelling commencements (March 24 quarter, trend basis)

89%↑

NBN Co share of new dwelling completions (H1 FY24)

Locked

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Abstract

This brief examines the latest housing market data for dwelling commencements and approvals as a leading indicator for fixed broadband growth. It argues that higher growth in new developments would favor NBN’s fixed-line competitors like Uniti and Gigacomm. The report also highlights NBN Co’s decision to discontinue weekly reporting, which will make tracking performance in the contestable greenfield segment significantly more difficult for analysts and industry stakeholders.

Key Takeaways

Dwelling commencements rose 0.7% in Q1 2024, the first trend-based improvement in nearly three years.
NBN Co's share of new dwelling completions surged to 89% in H1 FY24, a significant jump from the sub-80% levels seen in FY23.
Greenfield developments remain the most contestable segment of the fixed broadband market, favoring agile rivals like Uniti and Gigacomm.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Yes, dwelling commencements rose 0.7% in the March 2024 quarter, marking the first trend-based improvement in nearly three years. However, total dwelling approvals remain low compared to the pre-pandemic decade, suggesting the recovery in new connection volume will be gradual.

NBN Co has significantly strengthened its position, with its share of new dwelling completions surging to 89% in H1 FY24. This represents a sharp increase from the sub-80% levels recorded throughout FY23, narrowing the window for competitors like Uniti and Gigacomm.

Market visibility will decline sharply following NBN Co's decision to discontinue its 'Weekly Progress' report in July 2024. Analysts will lose the primary tool used to track performance in the contestable greenfield segment, making real-time market share shifts harder to identify.

NBN Co faces a strategic resource conflict as it attempts to balance connecting new greenfield homes with its ongoing mandate to upgrade existing brownfield premises to fibre. This tension provides an opening for agile private operators to compete on deployment speed in the 11% of the market NBN Co does not currently capture.

Is the greenfield broadband opportunity going to improve?

Housing data suggests a turning point for greenfield broadband, though NBN Co's reduced reporting will obscure market share

Heath Gibson · Executive Manager – Industry Intelligence and Insights at NBN Australia19 July 2024Period: Q1 20244 min read

Last updated 6 May 2026

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Dwelling commencements rose 0.7% in Q1 2024, the first trend-based improvement in nearly three years.

NBN Co's share of new dwelling completions surged to 89% in H1 FY24, a significant jump from the sub-80% levels seen in FY23.

Greenfield developments remain the most contestable segment of the fixed broadband market, favoring agile rivals like Uniti and Gigacomm.

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

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