What is the growth trajectory for Australian consumer mobile revenue over the next five years?

Total consumer mobile revenue will expand at a 3.6% CAGR between FY26 and FY31, reaching $19,761m by the end of the period. This growth is primarily driven by service revenue expansion rather than hardware sales. Blended consumer ARPU will increase at a 2.1% CAGR to hit $46.2 by FY31.

How will mobile service revenue and connection volumes perform through FY31?

Consumer mobile service revenue will accelerate at a 4.4% CAGR to reach $15,729m in FY31. Total mobile connections will grow at a 2.2% CAGR over the same timeframe, totaling 28.655 million. Meanwhile, population penetration for consumer handsets will climb to reach 96% by FY31.

What is happening to hardware sales given current market dynamics?

Hardware revenues will stagnate with a sluggish 0.6% CAGR over the forecast period. This weak performance reflects structurally longer consumer handset renewal cycles and a growing preference for bring-your-own-device (BYOD) arrangements.

Are MVNOs gaining ground against major network operators in Australia?

MVNOs are capturing meaningful market share, with connections projected to rise at a 5.2% CAGR through FY31. This expansion will drive MVNO connection share up to account for 20% of the total market by the end of the forecast period.

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Australia Consumer Mobile Forecast 2026

Australia consumer mobile revenue will reach $19,761m in FY31.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights24 September 2026Period: FY24-FY3110 min read

3.6%↑

Total mobile revenue CAGR over FY26/31

4.4%↑

Consumer mobile service revenue CAGR over FY26/31

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Companies covered:TelstraOptusTPGTPG TelecomAmaysim

Abstract

We expect consumer mobile revenue (both service and hardware) to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% over FY26/31. In FY26, we estimate that mobile constituted 63% of total consumer telecommunications revenue in Australia. We forecast this share will remain flat over the FY26/31 forecast period, as growth flows through on both the mobile and fixed markets, with consumer broadband growth offsetting consumer fixed voice decline.

Key Takeaways

Total Australian consumer mobile revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% over FY26/31.
Consumer mobile service revenue will expand at a 4.4% CAGR over the forecast period to FY31.
Total consumer mobile connections will grow at a 2.2% CAGR over the forecast period, reaching 28.655 million in FY31.

Australia Consumer Mobile Forecast 2026

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Introduction and methodology

Consumer mobile market sizing and growth

Consumer shares by operator

Methodology

Frequently Asked Questions

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Introduction and methodology

Consumer mobile market sizing and growth

Consumer shares by operator

Methodology

Frequently Asked Questions

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