ANZ business fixed market to remain under pressure

Australian B2B fixed revenues to grow at 1.2% CAGR through FY28, while New Zealand faces a -0.2% CAGR decline.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights20 September 2024Period: FY23-FY283 min read

Last updated 6 May 2026

+1.2%↑

Forecast CAGR for Australian total business fixed revenues (FY23-28)

-0.2%↓

Forecast CAGR for New Zealand total business fixed revenues (FY23-28)

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Abstract

This report forecasts the Australian and New Zealand business fixed markets through FY28, highlighting a period of intense pressure driven by the commoditisation of connectivity and the decline of legacy services. While Australian total business fixed revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of +1.2%, New Zealand is projected to see a -0.2% CAGR drop. The analysis explores how growth in IP voice and Ethernet is being neutralized by the rapid phase-out of PSTN and IP-VPN services.

Key Takeaways

Australian B2B fixed telecommunications revenue is forecast to reach A$7.124bn by FY28, representing a low CAGR of +0.9%.
New Zealand's market will contract at a -1.5% CAGR to NZ$953 million, driven almost entirely by the collapse of the voice market.
Voice revenues are plummeting, with New Zealand expecting a -15.3% CAGR decline as Chorus shuts down its copper network by FY25.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Growth is marginal, with total business fixed revenues projected to reach A$7.124 billion by FY28 at a low CAGR of +0.9%. Managed and professional services represent the only significant expansion opportunity, forecast to grow at 2.8% while core data and internet segments stagnate at 0.2%.

The New Zealand market is entering a structural decline with a forecast -1.5% CAGR drop to NZ$953 million by FY28. This is driven by a 15.3% annual collapse in voice revenues as Chorus completes its copper network decommissioning by FY25.

Wholesale fibre access from NBN Co and LFCs has commoditised connectivity, allowing MSPs to undercut traditional pricing and erode ARPUs. This pressure is reflected in recent financial performance, including a 15% decline in Spark’s IT services revenues and asset write-downs at Optus.

No, the rapid phase-out of PSTN and IP-VPN services is neutralizing gains in newer technologies. In Australia, the resulting data and internet market growth is restricted to a negligible 0.2% CAGR through FY28.

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Australian B2B fixed telecommunications revenue is forecast to reach A$7.124bn by FY28, representing a low CAGR of +0.9%.

New Zealand's market will contract at a -1.5% CAGR to NZ$953 million, driven almost entirely by the collapse of the voice market.

Voice revenues are plummeting, with New Zealand expecting a -15.3% CAGR decline as Chorus shuts down its copper network by FY25.

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