Regional commercial TV in Australia: challenges and opportunities

Structural revenue erosion driven by BVOD competition and high transmission costs necessitates urgent Federal policy intervention.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights1 September 2021Period: September 202112 min read

Last updated 10 June 2026

2024↓

Year regional TV industry is expected to move into EBITDA-negative position

$160m↓

Estimated annual lost revenue to metropolitan networks by 2026

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+2more stats

Companies covered:Prime Media GroupSouthern Cross AustereoWIN NetworkSeven West MediaNine NetworkABCSBSOptusAustralian Community MediaBAI Communications

Abstract

This report reviews the current situation of the regional television industry and analyses potential solutions to the challenges it faces. It concludes that ongoing viability is difficult to foresee under current regulatory and commercial settings. The growth of competition from online alternatives and metropolitan networks' broadcast video-on-demand (BVOD) services will inevitably erode regional advertising revenues. The industry faces structural problems, including high transmission costs and declining viewer minutes, that require immediate structural solutions from the Federal Government.

Key Takeaways

The regional commercial television industry is forecast to become EBITDA-negative by 2024 without structural intervention.
Traditional terrestrial viewing is falling faster than overall FTA viewing, with BVOD expected to account for 25% of total FTA viewing by 2026.
Regional broadcasters are trapped by a high cost base, with affiliate fees now consuming 50% of revenue compared to 20% in the 1990s.

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Frequently Asked Questions

The industry is forecast to reach an EBITDA-negative position by 2024. This collapse is driven by a projected 33% decline in regional revenues between 2021 and 2026 as audiences migrate to digital alternatives.

Regional broadcasters are burdened by an inflexible cost base where affiliate fees now consume 50% of total revenue, a massive increase from the 20% seen in the 1990s. This is compounded by a sharp drop in traditional terrestrial viewing, which is expected to fall to just 66 minutes per capita by 2026.

Metropolitan broadcast video-on-demand (BVOD) services are projected to drain $160 million in annual revenue from regional operators by 2026. As BVOD grows to account for 25% of all free-to-air viewing, regional players lack the scale to capture these digital ad dollars.

Structural intervention is required to manage the transition for 800,000 households currently lacking the broadband necessary for digital-only delivery. Moving these viewers to satellite would require a minimum federal equipment subsidy of $320 million.

Regional commercial TV in Australia: challenges and opportunities

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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