The Future of TV – Video Viewing Trends and Outlook

Declining FTA investment meets resilient monthly reach as the Australian video market stabilizes through 2028.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights16 February 2024Period: FY248 min read

84%→

Total monthly reach of FTA broadcast and online combined (2023)

32%↓

Decline in combined FTA and Pay TV daily viewing minutes (2017-2023)

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Abstract

This report analyses the evolving landscape of Australian video consumption, highlighting a significant shift from traditional broadcast to digital platforms. While total video viewing remains stable, per capita daily viewing of FTA and pay TV combined declined 32% between 2017 and 2023. The analysis forecasts a stabilization period through FY28, with SVOD growth slowing to a 2% CAGR as the market reaches saturation. Despite these declines, FTA retains the highest monthly reach at 84%, underscoring its continued relevance for news and local content.

Key Takeaways

Per capita video viewing has risen from 249 minutes daily in 2016 to 263 minutes in 2023, driven by rapid SVOD and AVOD adoption.
SVOD and AVOD now account for 152 minutes of daily viewing, having grown 39% in 2020 alone during pandemic lockdowns.
FTA remains the highest reach medium at 84% monthly reach, followed by AVOD at 78% and SVOD at 73%.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Free-to-Air (FTA) remains the highest reach medium in the market, maintaining an 84% monthly reach across its combined broadcast and online services. While combined FTA and Pay TV daily viewing minutes fell 32% between 2017 and 2023, the platform remains the primary vehicle for local content and news.

The SVOD sector is entering a period of significant cooling as it hits domestic saturation. Annual growth is forecast to drop from 12.5% in FY23 to a 2% CAGR through FY28, forcing providers to shift focus from subscriber acquisition to retention and ARPU.

Total per capita video viewing is increasing, rising from 249 minutes daily in 2016 to 263 minutes in 2023. This growth is entirely digital, with SVOD and AVOD now accounting for 152 minutes of the daily viewing mix.

Broadcasters face a critical infrastructure risk regarding a potential 'spectrum raid' on the 600MHz band. If this spectrum is reallocated, FTA providers will be technically unable to offer 4K resolution, further widening the quality gap with digital platforms.

The Future of TV – Video Viewing Trends and Outlook

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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