Is the long-term decline in television advertising finally coming to an end?

Market data suggests a stabilization point, with UBS upgrading its TV ad spend forecast to 2% growth for the half-year ending June. This inflection point is driven by BVOD growth successfully offsetting broadcast losses, evidenced by Seven West Media’s 36% digital surge in the first half.

How does the reach of free streaming services compare to traditional broadcast today?

BVOD has achieved significant scale, with individual reach hitting 69% in 2024 and nearly matching traditional broadcast levels. However, networks must still solve for engagement depth, as current viewing is dominated by short sessions of 60 minutes or less.

Are paid streaming platforms still the primary threat to free-to-air networks?

The competitive threat from paid services is moderating as SVOD growth stalls due to household budget pressures, potentially redirecting audiences to free platforms. The more persistent challenge remains YouTube, which has systematically eroded the Australian TV ad market over a 20-year period.

What is the total value of the Australian free-to-air ad market right now?

Total Australian FTA TV advertising revenues stood at $3,276 million for FY24. Future revenue security depends on the ability of networks to convert their 69% digital reach into sustained viewing time that rivals traditional linear habits.

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Has FTA TV ad revenue found its floor?

Broadcasters eye a potential inflection point as BVOD growth begins to offset linear losses amid a 2025 economic recovery.

David Kennedy · Venture Insights21 February 2025Period: FY244 min read

69%↑

Individual reach of BVOD in 2024, approaching broadcast reach

36%↑

Growth in Seven West Media's 7plus digital push in H1

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Abstract

For over a decade, television advertising has been in structural decline, battered by digital disruption and shifting viewer habits. Yet, recent signals—particularly from Seven West Media—hint at a potential stabilisation. As Macquarie analysts suggest, we may be witnessing an "inflection point" where BVOD growth begins to offset free-to-air losses. The question remains: is this the start of a true rebound, or just a momentary pause? The answer depends on how effectively FTA networks can convert growing BVOD reach into viewing.

Key Takeaways

FTA TV advertising has faced over a decade of structural decline due to digital disruption and shifting viewer habits.
Recent signals from Seven West Media suggest a potential stabilization or 'inflection point' where BVOD offsets free-to-air losses.
BVOD reach has soared to 69%, nearly matching broadcast reach, though viewing is currently dominated by short sessions of an hour or less.

What's Inside

Green shoots appearing for FTA TV

Scope for growth

Findings

2 figures& data tables inside

Charts, tables, and data visualisations

Abstract

Key Takeaways

What's Inside

Green shoots appearing for FTA TV

Scope for growth

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