Question 1

When will the commercial television market stop its current decline?

Accepted Answer

The industry is projected to return to revenue growth by FY26, driven by a combination of economic recovery and the stabilization of viewing patterns. This recovery is underpinned by the superior monetization of digital platforms, which generate 79% more revenue per minute watched than traditional broadcast.

Question 2

How fast is the traditional broadcast audience shrinking?

Accepted Answer

The decline is accelerating, with broadcast TV’s weekly cumulative reach dropping from 48% in June 2023 to 37% in June 2024. While per capita viewing continues to fall, the rate of decline is expected to slow as the competitive landscape between SVOD and AVOD players matures.

Question 3

Is digital streaming actually more profitable than traditional airtime?

Accepted Answer

Yes, BVOD is a significantly higher-value engine, delivering a 79% revenue premium per minute watched compared to broadcast. This high-margin growth is already visible in the market, with Seven West Media recording a 39% increase in BVOD minutes in FY24.

Question 4

What is the long-term outlook for the total TV viewing mix?

Accepted Answer

BVOD is forecast to capture a 22% share of total viewing by FY28, at which point it will become the primary driver of industry growth. To sustain valuations during this transition, media companies must adopt telco-style structural cost-outs and increased automation.

Commercial TV’s long-term growth story

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