The Finkel Review - A politically acceptable outcome for now?

The Finkel Review provides a politically viable energy roadmap but underestimates the pace of renewable adoption.

Vinay Chhoda · Venture Insights1 June 2017Period: June 20176 min read

Last updated 10 June 2026

64%↑

Renewable share of total energy generation in Finkel 2050 model

24%↓

Coal share of energy generation in Finkel 2050 model

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Companies covered:CSIROAEMOCOAG

Abstract

This report analyses the Finkel Review's blueprint for Australia's National Electricity Market, contrasting its conservative modelling against CSIRO's disruptive technology forecasts. While Finkel recommends a Clean Energy Target to incentivise low-emissions generation, the review's assumptions on electric vehicle adoption and solar PV growth appear conservative. The analysis suggests that declining technology costs and behavioral economics will likely drive a more rapid shift toward renewables than the review's 'politically acceptable' middle path suggests.

Key Takeaways

The Finkel Review proposes a Clean Energy Target (CET) to incentivise low-emissions generation without penalising existing high-emissions plants.
Modelling suggests coal will retain a 24% share of generation by 2050, significantly higher than disruptive technology forecasts.
Wind and solar are now cost-competitive with coal even when including storage and firming costs.

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Frequently Asked Questions

The review offers an amber light rather than a definitive green light for clean energy investment. While it sets a 28% emissions reduction target by 2030, the proposed generator reliability obligations may actually increase the cost of wind and solar projects.

The model forecasts that coal will still account for 24% of generation by 2050, with renewables reaching a 64% share. However, these figures likely underestimate the pace of change as wind and solar are already cost-competitive with coal even when storage costs are included.

The review conservatively estimates that rooftop solar will contribute only 11% of total generation by 2050. This projection ignores the rapid tipping point for adoption driven by declining technology costs and shifting consumer behavior that will likely exceed these forecasts.

The Finkel Review - A politically acceptable outcome for now?

Abstract

Key Takeaways

Frequently Asked Questions

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