How quickly is the data centre market expanding across Australia and New Zealand?

The region is undergoing a massive scale-up, with Australia projected to reach 1,400 MW of deployable capacity by 2025. New Zealand has seen even more aggressive relative growth, jumping from 11 MW in FY20 to 140 MW currently, as both nations move toward doubling their total capacities by 2030.

What specific infrastructure changes are required to support the AI boom?

The transition to 'AI Factories' demands a tenfold increase in power density, with target rack densities shifting from standard levels to 80–100 kW. Meeting this demand requires significant liquidity, as demonstrated by NextDC’s recent AU$1.3B capital raise to fund its development pipeline.

Are domestic telecommunications providers losing their competitive advantage?

Local telcos face a structural threat as capital-rich hyperscalers increasingly bypass traditional wholesale providers to build their own proprietary intercity and regional fibre. This trend risks locking capital-constrained domestic players out of the highest-growth segments as the market doubles in size by 2030.

Can local operators protect their market share against global hyperscalers?

Regulatory compliance offers a defensible niche, as Australia’s SOCI Act mandates that sensitive government data must be housed in domestic-owned facilities. This creates a distinct, high-security market segment that is insulated from the broader trend of US-based technology companies dominating physical infrastructure.

ANZ data centre capacity is projected to double by 2030, threatening domestic telco infrastructure control.

ANZ data centre capacity is projected to double by 2030, threatening domestic telco infrastructure control. | Venture Insights

Macro Drivers of Data Centre Growth

Asset Size and Investment Velocity

Australia’s national occupancy has expanded fortyfold over the past two decades, rising from 37 MW in 2005 to approximately 1,400 MW in 2025. New Zealand is following a similar trajectory, rising from 11MW in FY20 to 140MW today. This trajectory is forecast to continue, with national capacities projected to double by 2030, necessitating multi-billion dollar capital investment.

A divergence between revenue growth and capacity growth highlights a fundamental shift in the economic model of data centres. As operators move from retail colocation (characterised by higher per-kW yields but smaller footprints) to wholesale hyperscale contracts (lower per-kW yields but massive volume), the physical infrastructure is expanding faster than topline revenue. The investment required to sustain this growth is staggering; NextDC alone executed a capital raising of nearly AU$1.3 billion to fund its development pipeline, signaling the capital intensity of the next phase of growth.

The "AI Factory" Paradigm Shift

The most disruptive force currently in the market is the rapid emergence of generative and agentic AI. Unlike traditional cloud workloads, which prioritise varying degrees of latency and redundancy, AI model training requires massive, uninterrupted power blocks and high-density cooling. This has birthed the concept of the "AI Factory" - facilities designed explicitly for computationally intensive workloads.

Tenants such as OpenAI and Zoom are now entering the Australian market with requirements that disrupt traditional leasing cycles, often absorbing capacity in blocks of 10 MW to 50 MW at short notice. This demand shock is forcing operators to redesign electrical infrastructure to support rack densities of 80–100 kW, a tenfold increase from the historical average of 5–10 kW. Consequently, the market is seeing a split in asset classes: "Massive" and "Mega" scale facilities are projected to grow significantly faster than smaller enterprise-focussed data centres.

Sovereign Risk and Regulatory Moats

Australia's regulatory environment has created a distinct and highly defensible market segment for "sovereign" data centres. The Security of Critical Infrastructure Act 2018 (SOCI Act) and the "Certified Strategic" accreditation under the Federal Government’s Hosting Certification Framework have effectively mandated that sensitive government data remain within facilities owned and operated by Australian entities such as CDC Data Centres and Macquarie Data Centres. Similar requirements for New Zealand have supported Spark, and have attracted CDC investment.

This policy framework has created a substantial "moat" for domestic operators. These operators have capitalised on this by aligning their facility specifications with the stringent physical security requirements of defence and other intelligence agencies. This sovereign segment operates with different economic drivers compared to the commercial hyperscale market, characterised by longer lease terms, lower churn, and higher barriers to entry for international competitors.

Emergence of an integrated ANZ market

The expansion of cross-Tasman fibre infrastructure will steadily merge the two markets into a single, southern node of the global digital infrastructure. This draws in global investment into ANZ as cloud operators seek to re-risk their global networks. It also means that investment drivers, particularly in New Zealand, are not solely focussed on local demand, but are also designed to serve other geographical markets.

A recent BCG report has highlighted the export opportunity for New Zealand, calculating that capacity export in the base scenario could equal New Zealand’s domestic demand, generating export income and domestic growth. DataGrid is one data centre operator explicitly chasing this market with its Tasman Ring cable system.

Implications for telcos and digital sovereignty

The implications for domestic telcos are also significant. The growth of hyperscale data centres generates demand for high-capacity links. This is a potential growth market for telcos.

But hyperscale investors now dominate the international fibre market, and are increasingly installing their own inter-DC high-capacity links. As data centre investment diversifies into outer suburban and regional locations, there is a significant risk - a probability - that hyperscale investment in fibre will expand into intercity and regional links between these data centres.

There is no suggestion that hyperscalers want to absorb the telecommunications market completely. For one thing, they have no desire to shoulder the regulatory burdens of the consumer segment. However, current regulatory arrangements allow for exemption from most telecommunications regulation when the assets are used internally - rail and power companies already enjoy these exemptions.

In addition, the hyperscalers have enormous cash reserves to invest in physical infrastructure. The contrast with capital-constrained telcos is stark (as we noted in our report “State of the Australian Telecommunications Industry”). As a result, telcos face the prospect of being locked out of the fastest growing segments of the market.

This also has implications for digital sovereignty. Australia and New Zealand face the possibility that key digital infrastructure will become foreign dominated over time. This is probably inevitable - the world is bifurcating into parallel digital infrastructures, Chinese and American, and there is no doubt about which one we will choose. It is not impossible for us to prosper inside the US ecosystem, just as we prospered within the US-dominated financial systems after the Second World War. But that will also have implications for governments that wish to maintain a level of control over critical infrastructure, and to ensure that the benefits of digital technology are fairly distributed, and not captured by an oligopoly of US-based technology companies.

Hyperscale Data Centre Growth Threatens ANZ Telco Revenues and Digital Sovereignty

Abstract

Key Takeaways