REPORT: Five-year Outlook – Telco in Australia and New Zealand 2023
- Publisher : Venture Insights
- Publish Date : September 21, 2023
The scenarios developed for the telco sector in our forecasts reflects our view on the long-term trends in market structure, competition, and regulation that will drive pricing and volumes across consumer, enterprise, and wholesale segments.
Around the beginning of the financial year, Venture Insights reviews the technology and market trends that will shape the telco industry in Australia and New Zealand over the coming five years. Our views on these trends inform our other research, flow into our forecasts for the telco sector, and are documented in this report.
Contents
Introduction
Our view
Industry trends summary
Macroeconomic context
Economic environment
Productivity growth
Digital economy growth
Implications for telco
Industry technology trends
The rise of public cloud
The decentralized network: edge and SD-WAN
5G and beyond
AI/ML: low-cost processes
Network security: a growing concern
Technology wildcards: fixed wireless, satellite
Technology de-globalisation
Industry commercial trends
The battle for ROIC
Wholesale market: more structural separation
Fixed broadband: shift to access pricing
Enterprise connectivity: rising competition
Mobile: 5G revenue gap
Demand: enterprise digitalisation
Efficiency programs essential
About Venture Insights
Figures
Figure 1 Trends assessment framework
Figure 2 Industry trends impact summary
Figure 3 IMF Australia and New Zealand GDP growth rates (historic and 2023 forecast)
Figure 4 Australia and New Zealand multifactor productivity growth (market sector, 3-year running average)
Figure 5 Australia digital economy value added and share of aggregate value added (%), FY19 to FY21
Figure 6 COVID-19 impact to some consumer behaviour patterns
Figure 7 Centralized versus decentralized network
Figure 8 Key verticals that will benefit from 5G
Figure 9 Telecommunications Sector Security Reforms and Security of Critical Infrastructure Act 2018 framework
Figure 10 Australian telco industry ROIC
Figure 11 SD-WAN underlay versus overlay
Figure 12 Conflicting forces driving ARPU
Figure 13 Assessment of the digital opportunity of selected industries
Figure 16 Digital positioning in selected industries