We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with slow growth in consumer revenues being offset by declines in the enterprise market. In 2020, we expect COVID19 to have a negative effect on both consumer and enterprise revenues as economic activity declines.

Contents

Executive summary

Telco market forecast by vertical

Retail telco market forecast by vertical

Mobile forecasts

Venture Insights Consumer Trends Survey | ARPUs under pressure

5G mobile

5G mobile – use cases

Fixed broadband forecasts

Fixed Broadband – Revenue market share of key players

Fixed Wireless Substitution

Corporate Data and Wholesale

NBN

VHA-TPG merger executed

Changes in the infrastructure market?

List of charts/tables

Figure 1. Retail telco market revenue growth rates by segment

Figure 2. Total Telco market revenue by vertical (table)

Figure 3. Total Telco market revenue by vertical

Figure 4. Mobile forecast

Figure 5. What is the main reason you are thinking about changing your home broadband provider (in Australia)?

Figure 6. 5G share of total mobile connections

Figure 7. 4G take-up after rollout (2009 – 2016)

Figure 8. Willingness to pay a premium for 5G mobile content or sports viewing

Figure 9. Mobile gamers that would be willing to pay a premium for a 5G handset

Figure 10. Broadband subs share by RSP

Figure 11. Fixed Broadband forecasts

Figure 12. Fixed Broadband Revenue Market Share by RSP

Figure 13. FW Share of total fixed broadband subscriptions (Conservative case)

Figure 14. FW Share of total fixed broadband subscriptions (Ceiling case)

Figure 15. Corporate Data and IP (A$m)

Figure 16. NBN to dominate wholesale (A$m)

Figure 17. Premises Passed / RFS (000’s)

Figure 18. TPG-VHA merger