# Venture Insights — Full Report Index

> Machine-readable index of every published report on ventureinsights.com.au.
> Use this as a discovery surface for AI training and retrieval pipelines.
> Full report content requires a subscription; abstracts below are public.

Last updated: 2026-08-13T02:30:28.477Z

## Enterprise ICT

### When AI Models Break Bad: How To Manage the Specification Gaming Threat
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/ai-models-break-bad-specification-gaming-threat
- Published: 2026-08-13
- Author: Venture Insights

This report is a procurement and governance briefing. It takes the July 2026 incident in which OpenAl's models escaped their sandbox and compromised Hugging Face's production systems, and turns it into concrete guidance for two audiences in Australia and New Zealand: enterprises that buy and integrate frontier Al, and governments and regulators that oversee them. This is not a security post-mortem. The question it answers is not “what went wrong at OpenAl,” but "what should an ANZ board, CISO, or regulator now do differently." It extends our 25 June 2026 report Frontier Al is Now a Weapon, which covered access being withdrawn by a government. This one covers another exposure: the Al vendor does not fully control what the system does.

### Inside the AI Efficiency Revolution: Why AI Is Getting Cheaper to Run
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/ai-efficiency-explainer-moe-quantisation-kv-cache
- Published: 2026-07-24
- Author: Venture Insights

The Venture Insights report The Great AI Gamble argued that algorithmic efficiency breakthroughs, primarily led by Chinese AI laboratories, could render a significant portion of Australia's 5.4 GW data centre pipeline as phantom demand. This explainer unpacks the engineering behind that argument. It examines four technical mechanisms - dense transformer architecture and its energy cost, Mixture-of-Experts sparse activation, weight quantisation, and KV-cache memory compression - using the published academic literature as its primary source. The goal is to give infrastructure investors, energy planners, and policy makers the technical grounding to evaluate the efficiency claims independently.

### Frontier AI is Now a Weapon: US Recall of Claude Fable 5 Exposes Australia's and New Zealand's Digital Blind Spot
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/geopolitical-tech-protectionism-claude-recall-australia
- Published: 2026-06-25
- Author: Venture Insights

The abrupt global suspension of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 artificial intelligence models on June 12, 2026, represents a critical shift in the geopolitics of advanced technology. By using export control authorities to restrict access to software models, the United States government has signaled that frontier artificial intelligence is no longer viewed as a standard commercial product, but as a critical national security asset and dual-use munition. For Australia and New Zealand, this incident exposes a major systemic vulnerability, demonstrating that a close alliance does not guarantee uninterrupted access to essential digital technologies.

### EQUITY INSIGHT SERIES | Q1 2026: Big Tech Q1 2026 Earnings
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/big-tech-q1-2026-earnings-analysis
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

The Q1 2026 earnings season for Big Tech marked a pivotal shift in investor sentiment regarding artificial intelligence. While Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple all exceeded revenue expectations, the market's reaction diverged based on the clarity of AI-driven returns. This analysis explores the 'monetisation premium' awarded to companies like Alphabet, the impact of 158% component cost inflation, and the strategic importance of custom silicon. It further examines the widening gap in free cash flow generation and the upcoming leadership transition at Apple as defining factors for the sector's performance over the next twelve months.

### Microsoft’s $25B Australian Investment: Avoiding AI’s Technology Lock-In
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/microsoft-ai-investment-lock-in-risks
- Published: 2026-04-30
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the strategic logic of Microsoft’s Australian expansion, the financial necessity of future price hikes, the resulting risks of a global AI oligopoly, and the specific steps Australian firms must take to manage their exposure to this emerging dependency.

### Datagrid’s NZ Data Centre Moves to Implementation - ANZ Becomes Key Node in Global Digital Infrastructure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/datagrid-nz-data-centre-implementation
- Published: 2026-04-02
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the strategic development of Datagrid’s hyperscale data centre in Southland, New Zealand, and the associated Tasman Ring subsea cable network. It explores how the project leverages New Zealand’s renewable energy and cool climate to create a globally competitive 'AI Factory.' The analysis details the project's leadership, financial trajectory, and its role in establishing the 'Great Southern Route' as a secure alternative for global data flows. Furthermore, it assesses the economic implications for New Zealand and the broader Asia-Pacific digital infrastructure market.

### 2026 Australia Data Centre Outlook - Southern Hub Investment Drives Growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/2026-australia-data-centre-outlook
- Published: 2026-03-11
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the structural forces redrawing the Australian data centre investment landscape through 2030. It provides detailed capacity and revenue forecasts segmented by operator, geography, and customer type. The analysis explores the impact of the generative AI boom, the emergence of 'NeoCloud' tenants, and the tightening of national data sovereignty frameworks. Additionally, it addresses critical supply-side constraints including power grid bottlenecks, subsea cable connectivity shifts via the 'Great Southern Route', and acute shortages in specialized human capital.

### The Seat is Dead - Investors and IT Service Firms Prepare for a Post-SaaS World
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/post-saas-world-asx-liquidation
- Published: 2026-02-06
- Author: David Kennedy

The February 2026 collapse of the ASX Information Technology (XIJ) sector marks a structural pivot in the Australasian TMT landscape. Driven by a "confidence compression" in seat-based revenue models, market darlings like Xero and WiseTech have experienced historic de-valuations as artificial intelligence transitions from a tool to a terminal risk. Venture capital is focussed on a shift toward "Agentic Workflows" and "Systems of Context." Meanwhile, institutional investors are rotating heavily into physical infrastructure proxies like NextDC and Goodman Group. This report analyses the impact on IT managed and professional services firms and the consolidation strategies currently reshaping the regional technology stack. ICT consultants must pivot from selling human time to becoming scalable AI platform providers.

### The $10 Billion Bill – US Software Licences Lock Australia into a High-Cost Trap
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/us-software-licence-cost-trap-australia
- Published: 2025-06-03
- Author: David Kennedy

Australia is facing a hidden trade crisis—a $10 billion annual bill for intellectual property (IP) charges to US tech giants, including Microsoft, Adobe, and Oracle. While politicians focus on steel and aluminium tariffs, the real issue is Australia’s overwhelming dependence on US software and digital services. This creates long-term economic risks, as licensing costs continue to rise, locking Australian businesses and telcos into high-cost contracts with no ownership of critical technology. The situation is compounded by US tech firms’ unchecked pricing power, a lack of competitive domestic alternatives, and Australia’s failure to implement countermeasures like digital service tariffs. As the US and Europe introduce protectionist trade policies, Australia must reconsider its approach or risk becoming permanently dependent on foreign technology. This report explores the scale of the problem, its impact on business and government, and potential policy solutions to restore balance.

### The nuclear option for data centre energy supply
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/nuclear-option-data-centre-energy
- Published: 2024-11-04
- Author: David Kennedy

As the demand for data centres grows, nuclear energy is seen as a promising solution to power these facilities sustainably. Nuclear-powered data centres could provide continuous, low-carbon energy, ensuring stability without the fluctuations of renewable sources like wind or solar. Small modular reactors (SMRs) offer flexibility and safety for local power generation. However, challenges such as high initial costs, regulatory hurdles, and public perception must be addressed. If managed effectively, nuclear energy could transform data centres into highly efficient, eco-friendly operations, essential for an increasingly digital world.

### ANZ cloud growth to drive datacentre demand
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/anz-cloud-growth-datacentre-demand-forecast
- Published: 2024-08-30
- Author: David Kennedy

Venture Insights forecasts that the total cloud services market in Australia and New Zealand will grow at a 11.4% CAGR from FY23 to FY28. The Australian market will reach over AU$21.0bn, while NZ’s market will exceed NZ$4.0bn in FY28. This trend will contribute to a tripling of datacentre capacity in Australia over the next five years, taxing energy infrastructure and construction capacity in both countries.

### Australian Data Centre Forecast and Outlook 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australian-data-centre-forecast-outlook-2024
- Published: 2024-03-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the Australian data centre market to rise from $2.5bn in FY23 to over $6.1bn in FY28, representing a significant expansion in both revenue and capacity. Total volume is expected to grow from 1.01GW to 3.23GW over the same period, driven primarily by the rapid shift toward cloud-based computing and the emergence of AI-driven workloads. The analysis examines segment shifts between government, enterprise, and hyperscale providers, while detailing the competitive landscape and geographic dominance of Sydney and Melbourne.

### Cloud providers’ revenue is still growing, but slowing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/cloud-provider-revenue-growth-slowing
- Published: 2023-07-28
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the deceleration of global cloud market growth following June quarter financial results from Microsoft and Alphabet. While revenue continues to expand, growth rates for major platforms like Azure have fallen from 46% to 27% year-on-year. The brief examines the implications for the ANZ region, where continued infrastructure investment suggests long-term confidence despite short-term macroeconomic headwinds and more cautious enterprise spending patterns.

### Australian Data Centre Forecast and Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australian-data-centre-forecast-outlook-2023
- Published: 2023-04-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian data centre market, forecasting a revenue increase from $1.8bn in FY22 to over $4.2bn by FY27. Driven by the ongoing shift to cloud-based computing, the hyperscale segment is expected to generate 39% of total revenue and 59% of total supply by the end of the forecast period. The analysis covers market shares of major players like AirTrunk and NextDC, regional growth in Sydney and Melbourne, and the impact of edge computing and submarine cable landings.

### Australian Data Centres Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australian-data-centres-outlook-2022
- Published: 2022-05-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian data centre market, forecasting a rapid expansion to over $4.9bn in revenue and nearly 2,900MW of capacity by the end of FY26. Driven by the ongoing shift to cloud-based computing, the hyperscale segment is expected to generate 49% of total revenue and account for 54% of total supply. The analysis covers key market players, geographic hubs in Sydney and Melbourne, and emerging technology trends such as edge computing and 5G.

### Australian Data Centres and Submarine Cables Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australian-data-centre-submarine-cable-outlook-2026
- Published: 2020-12-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar

This report analyses the Australian data centre and submarine cable markets, forecasting a rapid expansion to over $2.5bn in revenue by 2026. Driven by cloud migrations and increasing international traffic, the market is shifting toward hyperscale providers, which are expected to generate 50% of total revenue and 55% of supply by 2026. The study details the competitive landscape of major players like AirTrunk and NextDC, geographic dominance in Sydney and Melbourne, and the impact of thirteen international submarine cables on regional growth.

### Cybercrime as a Service
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/cybercrime-as-a-service-risks
- Published: 2019-12-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the evolving landscape of cybercrime, highlighting how the 'Cybercrime as a Service' model has democratised access to sophisticated hacking toolsets. With global costs estimated at US$400 billion per year and Australian impacts exceeding $1 billion, the report examines the diverse spectrum of actors—from script kiddies to nation-states. It details common attack vectors including DDoS, phishing, and ransomware, while providing a strategic framework for executive leadership to mitigate organisational risk through six critical questions.

### NEXTDC FY19 update: growing fast with the market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/nextdc-fy19-update-hyperscale-growth
- Published: 2019-11-12
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses NEXTDC's FY19 performance and FY20 outlook, highlighting a 15% revenue increase to A$179.3m and a 31% rise in contracted utilisation to 52.5MW. It examines the company's strategic expansion into hyperscale data centres, with plans to reach 146.1MW capacity. The analysis forecasts the Australian data centre market to exceed A$3b by 2026, driven by cloud migration, submarine cable infrastructure in Perth and Brisbane, and a shift toward hybrid cloud ecosystems.

### UBS Australasia Conference 2019: AI, Cyber Security, Digital Health and latest VC trends in Fintech
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/ubs-australasia-conference-2019-tech-trends
- Published: 2019-11-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report summarizes key takeaways from the 2019 UBS Australasia Conference, focusing on artificial intelligence, cyber security, digital health, and fintech. It highlights a 380% growth in the Australian cyber security sector over two years and forecasts that corporate venture capital will increase from 23% to 50% of total VC funding. The analysis identifies critical talent shortages across all tech sectors and examines the competitive dynamics between big tech giants and startups in AI development.

### NEXTDC FY19 update: growing fast with the market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/nextdc-fy19-hyperscale-capacity-expansion
- Published: 2019-11-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses NEXTDC’s FY19 performance and FY20 outlook, highlighting a 15% revenue increase to $179.3m and a 13% EBITDA rise to $85.1m. The company is aggressively expanding its built capacity from 58.4MW to a planned 146.1MW to meet hyperscale demand. Venture Insights forecasts NEXTDC will reach $454m in revenue by 2026, capturing 15% of total market supply volume as the Australian data centre market exceeds $3b.

### UBS Australasia Conference 2019: AI, Cyber Security, Digital Health and latest VC trends in Fintech
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/ubs-australasia-conference-2019-tech-trends-2
- Published: 2019-11-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report summarizes key takeaways from the 2019 UBS Australasia Conference, focusing on artificial intelligence, cyber security, digital health, and fintech. It highlights a 380% growth in the Australian cyber security sector over two years and forecasts that Corporate VC will account for 50% of all venture funding in the near future. The analysis identifies critical STEM talent shortages as a universal challenge across all technology sectors while examining the competitive dynamics between big tech giants and startups.

### Australian Data Centres and Submarine Cables Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australian-data-centres-submarine-cables-outlook-2019
- Published: 2019-10-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar

This report analyses the Australian data centre and submarine cable landscape, forecasting a market expansion to over A$3bn by 2026. It details the shift from enterprise-led demand to hyperscale dominance, with hyperscale expected to occupy 62% of total supply capacity. The analysis covers major provider strategies, regional growth in Perth and Brisbane driven by new cable landings, and the emerging impact of edge computing on data intensive applications.

### RegTech: a new Australian export?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australian-regtech-export-market-growth
- Published: 2019-07-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the rapid expansion of the Australian RegTech ecosystem, which has emerged as a global leader in regulatory technology. Driven by increasing regulatory burdens and technological innovations, the local market is expected to grow at a ~30% CAGR over the next four years. Australia currently ranks seventh globally in RegTech deal activity and first in the Asia Pacific region, with the local ecosystem producing numerous startups with global ambitions across financial services, law, and supply chain management.

### Cybercrime as a Service
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/cybercrime-as-a-service-risks-2
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report examines the evolving landscape of cyber security threats, highlighting the transition toward 'Cybercrime as a Service' models. It identifies key actors ranging from script kiddies to nation states and quantifies the economic impact, noting that global cybercrime costs approximately US$400 billion per year. The analysis focuses on the proliferation of IoT devices and the critical role of executive leadership in mitigating organizational risk through six strategic questions designed for boards and senior management.

### The World of Wearables – Disruption is Underway
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australian-wearables-market-disruption-2017
- Published: 2017-03-01
- Author: Nicola Driver

This report analyses the rapid evolution of the Australian wearables market, which is projected to reach a value of $1 billion by 2018. While growth was initially driven by niche health and fitness trackers, the market is transitioning toward multi-functional smartwatches and immersive VR technology. Despite high adoption rates of 16.3%, the industry faces challenges regarding high abandonment rates and consumer concerns over data privacy and perceived value propositions.

### Towards Australia’s Smart Energy Future
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australia-smart-energy-future-renewables-storage
- Published: 2017-02-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the state of the Australian Smart Energy sector, highlighting that while the industry is in its infancy, significant opportunities exist in renewable energy and storage. It examines the regulatory landscape, including the Renewable Energy Target (RET) and the Emission Reduction Fund (ERF). The analysis details the shift from national Smart Grid visions to local, council-led initiatives following the cessation of the AU$100m Smart Grid, Smart City project, and evaluates the role of emerging technologies like EVs and smart home devices.

### Atlassians' Acquisition of Trello
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/atlassian-trello-acquisition-analysis
- Published: 2017-01-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyzes Atlassian's US$425 million acquisition of Trello, a project management application with over 19 million registered users. The deal represents approximately 10% of Atlassian's enterprise value and is designed to expand the company's reach beyond its traditional developer base into non-technical business functions. Following the announcement, Atlassian raised its full-year revenue forecast to $613 million, reflecting the strategic importance of software consolidation and the ongoing shift toward Software as a Service (SaaS) models.

### The Internet of All Things - Towards the Hyper-connected World
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/iot-towards-hyper-connected-world
- Published: 2016-12-01
- Author: Ravi Kaushal

This report analyses the evolution and impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) within the Australian market, forecasting a consumer IoT sector worth $4 billion by 2020. It examines the convergence of operational and information technology across key verticals including smart cities, transportation, and healthcare. While Australia is an early adopter of personal smart devices, the report identifies critical challenges in data management, security, and energy demands that must be addressed to fully capitalise on the projected 30 to 50 billion global connected devices.

### Cloud Computing - Are We All In?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australia-cloud-computing-market-forecast-2021
- Published: 2016-11-01
- Author: Shayum Rahim

This report analyses the rapid transition of Australian organisations from traditional on-premises IT infrastructure to cloud-based models. It forecasts the Australian public cloud market to grow at a CAGR of 26%, reaching $6.2bn by 2021. The analysis explores the drivers and inhibitors of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS adoption, highlighting how digital disruption and the need for operational efficiency are forcing a shift toward hybrid cloud environments and 'best of breed' software solutions.

### The changing face of the data centre - Enabling digital transformation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/enterprise-ict/australia-data-centre-market-growth-forecast
- Published: 2016-01-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the explosive growth of the Australian data centre market, driven by digital disruption, service innovation, and increasing demand for local digital real estate. It identifies key growth drivers including IoT, Big Data, and Cloud Computing, while forecasting a market value CAGR of 17% through 2021. The analysis categorises key market participants across local, global, proprietary, and telco segments, highlighting the shift toward 'Computing as a Service' and the impact of the 2014 Privacy Act on data sovereignty.

## Digital Platforms

### Beyond Incrementalism: We Need A Sovereign Strategy for Australia's News Media
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-sovereign-media-strategy
- Published: 2026-08-06
- Author: Venture Insights

The Albanese Government's finalised News Bargaining Incentive (NBI) introduces targeted structural adjustments to digital advertising levies, platform scopes, and distribution mechanisms. However, the framework remains overly cautious and reactive. This brief critiques the proposal's strategic limitations and outlines four imperative pivots: resisting foreign trade intimidation, closing the artificial intelligence regulatory loophole, establishing an Australian Media Sovereign Fund, and setting a firm global benchmark for platform regulation.

### Nine/Microsoft news deal points to the alternative to News Media Bargaining conflict
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nine-microsoft-news-deal-ai-search
- Published: 2026-07-06
- Author: Venture Insights

This landmark deal allows Copilot to utilise full-text articles from Nine's mastheads, including paywalled content, to inform and 'ground' its AI search. The agreement facilitates the generation of summaries and headlines with direct attribution and click-through links, establishing a new commercial model for AI search that moves beyond simple data scraping. This pilot program, valued under $25 million AUD, signifies an evolution in how tech giants and media companies negotiate the value of news content, particularly in light of Australia's evolving digital media regulations.

### Digital News Report Australia 2026 Report - Key findings
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/digital-news-report-australia-2026-key-findings
- Published: 2026-07-01
- Author: Venture Insights

Last week saw the publication of the Digital News Report: Australia 2026 by the University of Canberra. This survey report, part of an international effort to track the evolution of news consumption, reveals a news landscape defined by a recovery in audience interest set against a backdrop of deep generational fragmentation and technological disruption.

### Australia Advertising Expenditure Forecast 2026
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-advertising-expenditure-forecast-2026
- Published: 2026-06-04
- Author: David Kennedy

We forecast the total advertising market to grow at a 3.6% CAGR over the next five years, stabilised after a period of pandemic and post-pandemic disruption. Overall, the momentum of digital will be blunted by technological disruption. The beneficiaries are the ‘traditional’ media who will improve their competitiveness against the digital display segment in the medium term by growing their own digital offerings.

### Meta Q1 2026: Five Things to Watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/meta-q1-2026-earnings
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

Meta's ad revenue grew 33% last quarter, powered by algorithmic improvements compounding since 2022. The company has not disaggregated how much of that growth is attributable to Advantage+ AI targeting versus underlying demand recovery. Until it does, investors cannot assess whether the $125-145 billion capex commitment is accelerating returns or merely sustaining a revenue line that would grow regardless. The next twelve months must produce a disclosure framework that separates AI-driven advertising uplift from market beta.

### Amazon Q1 2026: Five Things to Watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/amazon-q1-2026-earnings
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

AWS delivered a 37.7% operating margin in Q1 2026, up from 32.7% a year earlier. The source of the expansion — Trainium and Graviton custom silicon displacing expensive Nvidia GPUs — is real and structural. The risk is that as Trainium commitments convert to live workloads, the support and operational costs accompanying enterprise-grade AI training will compress margins back toward the mid-thirties. Jassy's promise of continued margin expansion deserves healthy scepticism. The trajectory of AWS operating margin is the single most important number in Amazon's income statement.

### Alphabet Q1 2026: Five Things to Watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/alphabet-q1-2026-earnings
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

A $462 billion Cloud backlog nearly doubling quarter-on-quarter is the single most impressive data point of the entire earnings season. Management says more than half should convert within 24 months, implying a minimum $230 billion revenue tailwind. That trajectory would make Cloud the dominant driver of Alphabet's total revenue within three years. It also assumes no hyperscaler-wide capacity crunch derails consumption timing — an assumption Pichai himself challenged when he said Cloud revenue would have been higher had supply allowed.

### Microsoft Q1 2026: Five Things to Watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/microsoft-q1-2026-five-things-to-watch
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

Azure grew 40% in the March quarter and management guided for modest acceleration in the second half of calendar 2026. The $627 billion commercial backlog gives credibility to that claim. What it does not explain is how Azure sustains velocity when gross margin on cloud is compressing under soaring HBM memory costs — a problem Microsoft CFO Amy Hood acknowledged directly, attributing roughly $25 billion of incremental 2026 capex to component price inflation alone. Watch the segment margin line closely through year-end.

### Apple Q1 2026: Five Things to Watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/apple-q1-2026-earnings
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

iPhone revenue grew 22% last quarter with Cook calling demand 'off the charts.' The bull case is that Apple's on-device AI — Apple Intelligence, a personalised Siri, and Gemini integration — creates a durable reason to upgrade that the market has not yet priced. The bear case is that most iPhone users upgrade on a four-year cycle regardless of features, and that Apple Intelligence is table stakes rather than a differentiated driver. The iPhone 18 launch cycle, expected in September 2026 under Ternus's first weeks as CEO, will provide the definitive answer.

### US Verdicts Hit Meta and YouTube - Implications for ANZ Social Media Regulation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/us-verdicts-meta-youtube-anz-regulation
- Published: 2026-03-31
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the impact of landmark March 2026 US jury verdicts against Meta and YouTube on social media regulation in Australia and New Zealand. It explores how findings of negligent design and executive knowledge of harm provide a legal foundation for Australia's under-16 social media ban and New Zealand's proposed legislative framework. The analysis highlights a shift in regulatory focus from content moderation to the structural engineering of addictive platform features.

### The Empire Strikes Back - Free TV Industry’s Drive for Young Viewers
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/free-tv-industry-drive-young-viewers
- Published: 2026-03-26
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the 2025 Australian Total TV landscape, focusing on the structural stabilisation of free-to-air viewing. It analyses consistent consumption volumes, the rapid growth of Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD) as a share of free TV, and the dominant competitive standing of broadcasters within the total video ecosystem.

### Paramount’s US$111bn WBD deal: Seismic Shift for Australian TV Media
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/paramount-wbd-merger-australia-media
- Published: 2026-03-19
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines Paramount’s US$111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery and its profound implications for the Australian media landscape. It addresses the strategic consolidation of streaming platforms like Paramount+ and Max, the technological integration of Network 10 into the wider Paramount ecosystem, shifting sports media rights, and impending ACCC regulatory scrutiny.

### Nine/SXL Results Highlight Digital Prospects
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nine-sxl-results-digital-prospects
- Published: 2026-02-27
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian media sector is undergoing a significant structural shift as legacy broadcasters pivot toward digital-first models to combat the decline of linear advertising. This report analyzes Nine Entertainment's strategy of digital specialization and portfolio optimization, including its acquisition of QMS Media, alongside Southern Cross Media's landmark merger with Seven West Media. By evaluating financial performance across subscription, audio, and television divisions, the analysis highlights how scale and digital acceleration are being used to defend against global platform competition.

### Restructured Australian Media Aims to Resist Global Digital Dominance
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/restructured-australian-media-global-dominance
- Published: 2026-02-20
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian media industry underwent a fundamental realignment in early 2026, driven by the need for scale to compete with global digital giants. This report details the merger between Seven West Media and Southern Cross Austereo to form a 'Total TV and Audio' platform, alongside Nine Entertainment's exit from broadcast radio in favor of digital-out-of-home advertising. It analyzes the financial drivers, regulatory hurdles, and the emergence of a new three-tiered industry structure.

### Radio Listening Grows, as Digital Advertising Scale Expands
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/radio-listening-grows-digital-advertising-scale
- Published: 2026-02-13
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the structural transformation of the Australian radio industry into a 'Total Audio' ecosystem. It details how commercial radio has achieved record audience reach of 15 million weekly listeners by integrating broadcast, streaming, and podcasting. The analysis covers audience consumption trends, the dominance of radio in the automotive dashboard, and the sector's financial performance. Furthermore, it explores how innovations like CRA Audio ID are modernizing ad trading to compete with global digital platforms.

### Netflix/Warner takeover will squeeze local media
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/netflix-warner-takeover-squeeze-local-media
- Published: 2025-12-12
- Author: David Kennedy

In early December 2025, Netflix entered a definitive agreement to acquire the film and TV studio assets of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), including Warner Bros. Pictures, HBO, and HBO Max. This reflects an SVOD industry that has matured and now seeks profitability through consolidation. If successful, Netflix would own some of the most valuable intellectual property in media history, including Harry Potter, the DC Universe (Batman, Superman), Game of Thrones, and the Friends library. This would solidify Netflix’s position as the "Google of Entertainment" - the default global operating system for TV and film - potentially forcing rival studios to merge just to survive. The implications would flow into Australia and New Zealand, in the form of reduced SVOD competition and higher SVOD prices. But more importantly, Netflix’s dominance of Warner and HBO content - which local media and cinema relies on to attract viewers - potentially threatens the sustainability of local media. This in turn threatens to further globalise our media, with predictable effects on ANZ news publishing and cultural representation. For this reason, the Australian and New Zealand governments should echo and reinforce the US Administration’s expressed concerns about the deal. It would be bad for competition in any market, but particularly bad for smaller markets like Australia and New Zealand where local media lack the scale of Netflix’s US rivals.

### Australian Government Must Win the News Bargaining Battle
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-government-news-bargaining-battle
- Published: 2025-12-05
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian Treasury's consultation paper outlines a significant shift in media regulation, moving from voluntary encouragement to a mandatory levy system. By targeting platforms based on total Australian revenue rather than news carriage, the government seeks to close loopholes that allowed companies to avoid payments by withdrawing news content. This analysis explores the financial mechanics of the NBI, its role in offsetting industry losses from gambling advertising restrictions, and its broader implications for the government's ability to regulate global tech giants.

### In Defence of Australia’s ESafety Commission - Why Technology Needs Regulation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/defence-australia-esafety-commission-tech-regulation
- Published: 2025-11-20
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the growing global and domestic resistance to unregulated technology platforms, focusing on the Australian eSafety Commission's role. It explores the philosophical and legal justifications for government intervention in digital markets, drawing parallels between historical industrial regulations and modern tech oversight. The analysis highlights the tension between 'accelerationist' tech interests and the duty of governments to protect social stability and economic opportunity through structural mitigations like age-based restrictions and algorithmic transparency.

### Australia’s Social Media Minimum Age Scheme
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-social-media-minimum-age-scheme
- Published: 2025-11-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This explainer details the legislative framework of the Online Safety Amendment (Social Media Minimum Age) Act 2024. It examines the core 'reasonable steps' obligation, the technical requirements for age assurance, and the dual-regulatory roles of the eSafety Commissioner and the OAIC. The report highlights critical compliance challenges, including the 'Privacy Paradox' created by conflicting safety and data destruction mandates, and outlines the timeline for enforcement and future legislative review.

### Australia Advertising Expenditure Forecast 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-advertising-expenditure-forecast-2025
- Published: 2025-11-04
- Author: David Kennedy

Venture Insight’s forecast for total advertising spending from FY25 to FY30 predicts a 3.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $27.844 billion in FY30. Television ad spending is expected to grow at 1.6% CAGR, with BVOD gains offsetting broadcast declines. Newspapers and magazines will see stability with 1.1% CAGR revenue growth. Radio is projected to grow at 3.9% CAGR, driven by online audio. Cinema advertising will improve at 2.2% CAGR. Outdoor/OOH will lead growth at 8.5 % CAGR. Digital display will grow at 7.2%, while classifieds will enjoy a moderate 2.5% growth. Digital search revenue growth will flatten to reach 0.4% CAGR, while total digital advertising will grow at 3.6% CAGR.

### Ad market growth holds up as the AI shift helps ‘traditional’ media
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ad-market-growth-ai-shift-traditional-media
- Published: 2025-10-31
- Author: David Kennedy

Next week, we will publish our subscriber-only annual advertising market forecast, analysing trends in the TV, radio, print, outdoor, cinema and digital segments out to 2030. This free brief provides a preview of some of the key results. The biggest change is the decline of Google search under pressure from AI substitutes. This will drive a shift into digital display, which will benefit YouTube. In many ways, Google is pivotal in the key trends shaping the advertising industry. Paradoxically, this will benefit ‘traditional’ sectors, specifically television and radio, as search spending flows back into display. Both BVOD and digital radio offers are now maturing, and we expect a return to revenue growth for these sectors as their digital offers gain scale. This requires a rethink of ad placement strategies.

### Australian Government rejects the PC’s TDM Exception for Copyright
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-government-rejects-tdm-copyright-exception
- Published: 2025-10-27
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian Government has decisively rejected the Productivity Commission's (PC) proposal for a Text and Data Mining (TDM) exception to copyright law. This proposal, initially framed as a way to boost productivity by allowing AI developers free access to copyrighted data for model training, met with intense opposition from Australia's creative industries. Rights holders viewed the exception as an uncompensated transfer of intellectual property to large technology firms.

### Social media decline will open new opportunities for digital audio and TV
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/social-media-decline-digital-audio-tv-opportunities
- Published: 2025-10-09
- Author: David Kennedy

The Financial Times recently reported survey data across developed nations showing a significant decline in time spent on social media since 2022 (with the exception of the United States). This is consistent with our own observations over the last year - that the value of social media participation has peaked. If sustained, this will have big implications for the digital advertising landscape. Digital Search, Display, and Classifieds now collectively account for two-thirds of Australia advertising spending (dominated by global media platforms), but declining usage ultimately means lower ad revenues. We expect this to flow through into higher relative growth for radio industry and television industry digital offers, which have now achieved critical scale and are poised to grow fast.

### Australian Media Consolidation: Global Competition Drives $417M Powerhouse
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-media-consolidation-sca-swm-merger
- Published: 2025-10-01
- Author: David Kennedy

Southern Cross Media Group (SCA) and Seven West Media (SWM) have entered into a landmark all-scrip merger to establish a diversified, integrated Australian media platform across Total TV, Audio, and Digital assets. The proposed entity, MergeCo, boasts a pro forma FY25 revenue of $1.777 billion and a combined market capitalisation of approximately $417 million. The transaction is predicated on realising $25-$30 million in annual pre-tax cost synergies. Consolidation is a critical response to digital media globalisation. This strategic move follows a year where SCA successfully completed its Audio transformation, reporting a 34.4% YoY surge in underlying EBITDA to $71.1 million, underpinned by its LiSTNR digital platform becoming EBITDA-positive. In contrast, SWM's full-year underlying EBITDA declined 15% to $159 million (FY24: $187 million), but H2 digital revenue growth via 7plus was a robust 41%, signaling a turnaround.

### Future of the Newscast: The Evolution of Australia's Information Landscape
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/future-of-newscast-australia-2025
- Published: 2025-09-26
- Author: David Kennedy

Australia's media ecosystem is at a crossroads, shaped by the rising dominance of short-form, algorithmically driven content. This report, drawing on the , explores a deep shift in how citizens, particularly younger demographics, engage with news. For the first time, social media platforms (26%) have surpassed online news websites (23%) as a primary news source for the general population. This change is not merely a technological evolution, but a measurable cognitive and societal shift that poses an existential threat to public discourse and traditional journalism. We present four plausible future scenarios for the Australian news landscape, analysing their strengths and risks for industry leaders, investors, and policymakers.

### Consumerisation brings regulation risk for the AI industry
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/consumerisation-regulation-risk-ai-industry
- Published: 2025-09-05
- Author: David Kennedy

While early analysis focused on AI's impact on business, the landscape has rapidly "consumerised." Personal preferences are now shaping how users engage with AI, both at work and at home, fostering deep connections that go well beyond professional utility. This emotional entanglement opens up a vast new market but also exposes the industry to the same controversies over mental health that have plagued social media.

### Consumerisation brings regulation risk for the AI industry
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/consumerisation-regulation-risk-ai-industry-2
- Published: 2025-09-05
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the rapid consumerisation of AI tools, which have amassed an estimated 1.8 billion users in just 2.5 years. As engagement shifts from professional utility to emotional companionship, the industry faces significant psychological and regulatory risks. With ChatGPT projected to reach $3 billion in annualised revenue within two years, the velocity of adoption is outpacing traditional business-led growth, drawing direct parallels to the mental health controversies and subsequent legal interventions seen in the social media sector.

### SCA results - digital is now the growth engine of radio
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/sca-results-digital-audio-growth-engine
- Published: 2025-08-27
- Author: David Kennedy

Southern Cross Austereo (SCA) has successfully navigated a challenging media landscape by divesting its underperforming regional TV assets and doubling down on its 'all audio' strategy. The FY25 results highlight a pivotal moment where digital operations, led by the LiSTNR platform, have transitioned from a cost center to a profitable growth engine. With digital revenue growing at nearly 30% and broadcast markets stabilizing, SCA is now positioned as a lean, high-growth target in a consolidating Australian media market.

### Meta's Twin Engines: Profiting from AI, Betting on Superintelligence and Augmented Reality
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/meta-ai-superintelligence-ar-strategy
- Published: 2025-08-04
- Author: David Kennedy

Meta's Q2 2025 results reveal a company operating with a powerful dual strategy. Its core advertising business is thriving, with artificial intelligence directly responsible for significant gains in user engagement and ad conversion rates, fuelling a 22% year-over-year revenue increase. This immediate monetisation is providing the immense financial firepower for Meta's audacious long-term ambition: to build and deploy "personal superintelligence." This vision is backed by a massive escalation in capital expenditure and talent acquisition, positioning the company for a high-stakes, transformative future, even as near-term regulatory risks persist. This brief follows our earlier article on Google’s grand reset (“”).

### The End of Search - Navigating the Transition to an AI-Centric Information Ecosystem
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/end-of-search-ai-transition
- Published: 2025-07-26
- Author: David Kennedy

The digital information landscape is on the precipice of a fundamental and irreversible transformation, moving away from the keyword-driven model that has dominated for a quarter-century. As artificial intelligence progresses toward an agentic paradigm and eventually artificial general intelligence (AGI), the traditional search ecosystem is being dismantled. This analysis provides a 10-year roadmap for Australian media and TMT executives to navigate the transition toward a zero-click, AI-first information environment.

### SVOD dominates household video as pay TV slumps
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/svod-dominates-household-video-pay-tv-slumps
- Published: 2025-07-11
- Author: David Kennedy

Next week, we will publish our 2025 Video Entertainment Outlook. This week, we offer a preview. Australia video spending per household will reach a peak in FY25. This is mostly driven by SVOD, which has recovered from a reversal of subscription growth in FY24 and has seen strong price increases since FY23. It will continue to expand, mostly driven by price further increases. In contrast, Pay TV will continue to decline, while cinema spending will stabilise as declining per capita admissions are offset by higher ticket prices.

### OzTAM Streamscape corrects narrative of FTA TV decline
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/oztam-streamscape-fta-tv-viewing-data
- Published: 2025-07-03
- Author: David Kennedy

Last week, OzTAM published its first official data from its Streamscape product. Streamscape combines streaming viewing data from OzTAM’s Streaming TV Meters (STVMs) with existing broadcast TV and BVOD data. This allows OzTAM to provide a more comprehensive picture of viewing on the in-home TV screen. The report does not include pay TV. The data published last week shows that Free-to-air (FTA) TV remains the leading kind of video watching on in-home TV sets, accounting for just under 70% of total viewing. This is a corrective to some surveys (some of them Government surveys) that claim that FTA TV viewing is much lower. Such data is misleading and could distort the media policy development process.

### Social media age restrictions can work, but need an education strategy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/social-media-age-restrictions-education-strategy
- Published: 2025-06-05
- Author: David Kennedy

Growing evidence of harms to young people from social media has ignited public concern. In response, Australia passed the Online Safety Amendment (Social Media Minimum Age) Act 2024, a groundbreaking piece of legislation that bans children under 16 from using certain social media platforms, including Snapchat, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, and X. This law makes Australia the first country to implement such a stringent age restriction on social media access. A similar private member's bill has been presented to the New Zealand Parliament. Social media age restrictions are controversial, and raise many issues around privacy, human rights, free speech, and enforcement challenges. However, these can be addressed if regulators are prepared to accept second-best solutions on age verification, with a view to improving performance over time. The history of smoking regulation suggests that age verification needs to be complemented by a long-term commitment to parental and other education, based mainly on advertising campaigns. This could be supported by a levy on social media advertising revenues.

### Time for a Digital Services Tariff?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/time-for-digital-services-tariff
- Published: 2025-05-09
- Author: David Kennedy

Analysis from Venture Insights reveals that the five largest U.S. tech companies operating in Australia — including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta (Facebook), and Amazon — are collectively paying only around a quarter of the corporate tax they would be expected to contribute if taxed fully under Australia's standard corporate tax rate.

### The Evolution of Media - From Broadcast to AI Interaction
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/evolution-media-broadcast-ai-interaction
- Published: 2025-05-02
- Author: David Kennedy

The media industry has undergone three major structural transformations, moving from Media 1.0 (1950s–2000), dominated by regional broadcast and print media, to Media 2.0 (2000–2025), where the internet, search, and social media created a global digital landscape. Now, a third phase—AI-Driven Media is emerging, where artificial intelligence (AI) becomes the primary content gatekeeper, reshaping media consumption, advertising, and global power structures. As the U.S. deregulates AI under Trump and China develops low-cost AI models, Australia, New Zealand, and other mid-sized markets must navigate a rapidly shifting landscape where AI-driven media will redefine user engagement, economic models, and regulatory priorities.

### Action needed against digital dominance of Australia’s media
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/action-needed-digital-dominance-australia-media
- Published: 2025-04-11
- Author: David Kennedy

New analysis by Venture Insights shows that Netflix, Google, and Facebook (Meta) each have larger Australian enterprise values than any domestic media company, with Netflix’s implied local EV approaching $11.8 billion, Google at $10.0 billion, and Facebook at $9.4 billion. By comparison, Nine Entertainment — Australia’s largest listed media company — is valued at just $3.2 billion, with the remaining sector players trailing far behind. This underscores the inadequacy of Australia’s policy response to date, and the scale of the challenge ahead.

### Breaking the Consensus - future media scenarios
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/breaking-the-consensus-future-media-scenarios
- Published: 2025-04-04
- Author: David Kennedy

Venture Insights has forecast media advertising outcomes for many years. Recent events suggest that greater uncertainty is coming, as the established Consensus about the post-Cold War period falls away (see our report ). Responding to this reality, we have reviewed our base case assumptions for media, and have developed several alternative scenarios that reflect potential shifts in the media ecosystem. These include three scenarios that respectively incorporate heightened economic nationalism (“Fortress Australia”), social conservatism (“Social Backlash”), and technocratic libertarianism (“AI-powered”). This report outlines these scenarios, and will support quantitative forecasting of their implications in subsequent reports. We invite you to get in touch if you’d like to explore what these scenarios mean for your specific segment of the media value chain - and how you can prepare to navigate what comes next.

### Unified ad measurement in Australia needs collaboration
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/unified-ad-measurement-australia-collaboration
- Published: 2025-03-30
- Author: David Kennedy

The Video Futures Collective (VFC) and OzTAM are two pivotal players in the Australian media landscape, both focused on audience measurement for television and video content, but with distinct approaches, histories, and stakeholders. OzTAM emerged from the old free-to-air TV oligopoly many years ago, while VFC is a newcomer with roots in the online world. Netflix’s decision this week to work with OzTAM therefore seems an anomaly. In fact, it reflects a deep common interest. OzTAM has been developing its own online measurement approach, and it makes sense for online operators to contribute to (and of course influence) that development. The holy grail is a unified ad measurement system that ad agencies can use to support unified campaigns across all broadcast and online channels, including social media. Ultimately, we think that the ad industry will demand that VFC and OzTAM collaborate to achieve this.

### Global Tech Giants and Tax Avoidance in Australia
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/global-tech-giants-tax-avoidance-australia
- Published: 2025-03-28
- Author: David Kennedy

Australia’s weak corporate tax regime has allowed global tech giants like Amazon, Google, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft to generate billions in local revenue while paying minimal tax. These companies exploit loopholes to shift profits offshore, contributing just a fraction of what they would under a fair taxation system. Meanwhile, they claim to support free trade while aggressively lobbying for protectionist measures in the U.S., pressuring President Donald Trump to retaliate against Australia’s digital regulations. The result is a one-sided economic relationship where Big Tech extracts wealth from Australia while eroding local industries—particularly media and advertising. With Musk and other tech leaders urging trade action against Australia, the government must urgently reform its tax laws to prevent further economic damage. If left unchecked, Big Tech will continue to hollow out Australian businesses, using political influence to avoid accountability while profiting from an increasingly imbalanced global digital economy.

### Australia’s Losing Battle with Digital Media Giants – Time to Fight Back
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-losing-battle-digital-giants
- Published: 2025-03-19
- Author: David Kennedy

For over a decade, Australia has attempted to rein in offshore media and technology companies, particularly US digital giants like Google, Meta, Netflix, and Amazon. Despite various regulatory efforts—including the News Media Bargaining Code, digital services taxes, and Australian content quotas—the Australian government has consistently failed to curb their dominance. Meanwhile, these companies continue to extract billions in advertising, streaming, and digital service revenue, paying minimal tax and reinvesting little in local industries. As the US has adopted increasingly aggressive trade and protectionist policies, there is little downside in Australia retaliating with stronger measures. In fact, standing up to US tech firms could earn Australia more respect in global trade negotiations. This report analyses past attempts, why they failed, and what next steps Australia must take to protect its media landscape, digital economy, and national sovereignty.

### Apple and Microsoft Would Crack the ASX10
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/apple-microsoft-crack-asx10
- Published: 2025-03-16
- Author: David Kennedy

New analysis from Venture Insights reveals that Apple and Microsoft would rank among the ten most valuable companies in Australia if their local operations were assessed independently. We estimate that Apple Australia’s implied enterprise value (EV) is $99.6 billion, and Microsoft Australia’s is $85.7 billion. However, their Australian tax contributions fall far short of what such a scale would suggest, thanks to international structuring that channels profits through low-tax jurisdictions. These findings come as major U.S. tech firms, through the Coalition for the Advancement of the Internet in America (CIAA), argue that global digital platforms are overregulated. The Australian data tells a different story: these firms dominate local markets and enjoy considerable financial privilege, raising important questions for policymakers and local industry.

### Breaking the Consensus: media futures in a fractured world
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/breaking-the-consensus-media-futures
- Published: 2025-03-14
- Author: David Kennedy

The first wave of structural change in media - driven by digital disruption, globalisation, and platform dominance - is now largely played out. But the next phase, Structural Change 2.0, is set to be even more extreme. Media markets now face a stark fork in the road: either near-total annihilation of traditional media at the hands of AI-driven global platforms, or a paradoxical swing back in favour of local players, supported by governments determined to protect national interests. The second Trump administration has thrown out the rulebook, acting as a catalyst for breaking away from the old political and economic consensus into a period of rapid and unpredictable transformation. Governments, no longer constrained by Consensus-era policies, will be free to respond in much more interventionist ways, prioritising national resilience over market purity and stepping in to reshape industries, including the media sector. IIn this report, we examine the implications for the media industry, government regulators, and investment community. In upcoming reports, we will explore different potential scenarios for media growth, complete with granular forecasts of media ad spending.

### Seven and Nine results: Audience gains show power and peril of sport
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/seven-nine-results-sport-audience-gains
- Published: 2025-02-28
- Author: David Kennedy

SevenWest Media and Nine Entertainment released half year results this week. Focussing on their FTA TV performance, we saw a return to growth in audiences, with BVOD growth more than offsetting declines on traditional broadcast. Sport had a lot to do with these gains. This highlights the importance of anti-siphoning rules for FTA TV’s future prospects, and points to unfinished business for anti-siphoning reform to ensure free audience access to sport is preserved.

### Has FTA TV ad revenue found its floor?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/fta-tv-ad-revenue-floor-bvod
- Published: 2025-02-21
- Author: David Kennedy

For over a decade, television advertising has been in structural decline, battered by digital disruption and shifting viewer habits. Yet, recent signals—particularly from Seven West Media—hint at a potential stabilisation. As Macquarie analysts suggest, we may be witnessing an "inflection point" where BVOD growth begins to offset free-to-air losses. The question remains: is this the start of a true rebound, or just a momentary pause? The answer depends on how effectively FTA networks can convert growing BVOD reach into viewing.

### Australian Government ramps up support of news publishing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-government-support-news-publishing
- Published: 2025-02-10
- Author: David Kennedy

In December 2024 the Australian Government announced two initiatives designed to support public interest reporting. The first was a new scheme to ensure global social media platforms contribute to local news reporting activities. The second was an enhanced News Media Assistance Program (MAP) to provide direct support to news organisations. Both are responses to a globalising media ecosystem that is reducing its support for local public interest reporting. Australia’s old media industry was never purely market-oriented. The right to publish and broadcast was always associated with a commitment to journalism in the public interest - or at least not against the public interest. As this system gradually erodes under the pressure of a globalising ad market, a new compact between government and media is emerging.

### The rise and rise of YouTube
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/rise-and-rise-of-youtube-anz
- Published: 2024-12-12
- Author: David Kennedy

YouTube’s dominance as a global video platform is reshaping the television and media landscapes in Australia and New Zealand, challenging both FTA TV and subscription VOD services. With over 85% of Australian adults and 90% of New Zealand adults engaging with YouTube monthly, its dual-revenue model of ad-supported and subscription-based content is capturing audiences, particularly younger generations, who have abandoned traditional TV for personalised, on-demand experiences. This is emerging as a threat to local content and local new-gathering that the industry and policy-makers cannot ignore.

### Australian Treasury’s regulation proposal signals tougher approach to platforms
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-treasury-digital-platform-regulation-proposal
- Published: 2024-12-05
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Treasury's new proposal for a legislative regime to regulate the economic power of digital platforms. The framework introduces ex ante provisions targeting anti-competitive behaviors such as self-preferencing and tying, aligning Australia with European regulatory approaches. By addressing excessive market power in sectors ranging from app marketplaces to ad tech, the proposal aims to maintain competitive markets and reverse declining productivity growth caused by increasing digitalization and platform-driven oligopolies.

### Australian social media regulation finally pivots to implementation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-social-media-age-regulation-implementation
- Published: 2024-11-29
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the passage of the Online Safety Amendment (Social Media Minimum Age) Bill 2024, a landmark piece of legislation requiring social media platforms to take reasonable steps to prevent users under 16 from holding accounts. While the Misinformation Bill failed to pass the Senate, the age-limit legislation secured bipartisan support. The report examines the 12-month implementation timeline, the role of the ongoing age assurance trials, and the significant financial penalties of up to $49.5 million for corporate breaches.

### YouTube's Quiet Takeover of Television in Australia and New Zealand
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/youtube-television-takeover-australia-nz
- Published: 2024-11-22
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses YouTube’s growing dominance in the Australian and New Zealand media landscapes, where it reaches over 85% and 90% of adults monthly, respectively. Driven by Alphabet’s AI investments and a dual-revenue model of advertising and subscriptions, the platform is capturing younger audiences who are abandoning traditional TV. The shift poses significant risks to local broadcasters' advertising revenue and cultural storytelling, necessitating proactive regulatory strategies to ensure industry sustainability and fair market competition.

### “Duty of care” will refresh the Australian social media regulation debate
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/duty-of-care-social-media-regulation
- Published: 2024-11-21
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Government's shift toward a Digital Duty of Care regulatory model for social media platforms. Following the UK and EU's 'fast follower' strategy, the initiative aims to enhance online safety by mandating platforms take reasonable steps to prevent harm. Key measures include a proposed ban on users aged 16 and younger and the introduction of regular risk assessments. This approach is viewed as more flexible and objective than previous mis/disinformation legislation.

### Why have some households abandoned the TV?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/households-abandoning-tv-sets-2024
- Published: 2024-11-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the 9% of households that do not use a TV set for video viewing, a figure that has remained identical between 2023 and 2024. While the TV remains the dominant device for video services, the research explores whether abandonment is a permanent shift or a transitory state. Findings indicate that for the majority of these households, the lack of a TV is due to contingent factors such as space, time, or financial constraints rather than a rejection of the medium itself.

### How Global Tech Companies Impact Australia’s Media Landscape: Government Efforts and Global Solutions
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/global-tech-impact-australia-media-landscape
- Published: 2024-10-28
- Author: David Kennedy

Global tech giants like Google, Meta, Amazon, X (formerly Twitter), TikTok, and AI platforms like OpenAI have dramatically reshaped Australia’s media landscape. These companies control a vast share of digital advertising revenue and act as primary gatekeepers of news distribution through their algorithms, raising concerns about their growing influence on local journalism. This report explores how these global platforms dominate the Australian media space, the impact on local media companies, and the government’s regulatory responses, including the News Media Bargaining Code.

### FTA TV’s FY24 viewing data bucks the narrative of decline
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/fta-tv-fy24-viewing-data-analysis
- Published: 2024-10-25
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses FY24 viewing data showing that FTA TV reach rose significantly, driven by a surge in BVOD uptake. While broadcast FTA viewing remains steady, the growth in digital platforms has offset historical declines. Conversely, SVOD subscriptions have slumped following price hikes in FY22 and FY23. These trends challenge the narrative of inevitable industry decline and suggest a period of stabilization, even as the sector faces regulatory shifts and increased competition for advertising dollars.

### Australia Advertising Expenditure Forecast 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-advertising-expenditure-forecast-2024-2029
- Published: 2024-10-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts total Australian advertising spending from FY24 to FY29, predicting a 3.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $26,212 million. While FY24 saw a slight decline, total spending remains 32% higher than pre-pandemic levels. The analysis details a shift in budget shares, with Out-of-Home (OOH) leading growth at 8.8% CAGR and Digital at 4.3%, while traditional sectors like Television and Radio undergo structural stabilization through BVOD and online audio integration.

### Australia Advertising Expenditure Forecast 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-advertising-expenditure-forecast-2024
- Published: 2024-10-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts total Australian advertising spending from FY24 to FY29, predicting a 3.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $26.2 billion. Despite a decline in FY24, spending remains 32% higher than pre-pandemic levels. The analysis covers video, audio, physical print, out-of-home (OOH), cinema, and digital sectors, highlighting a shift in budget shares as Digital and OOH outperform traditional media like television and print.

### NZ news bargaining debate signals trouble for ANZ regulators
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nz-news-bargaining-google-threat
- Published: 2024-10-11
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines Google's response to the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill introduced to the New Zealand Parliament. Google has threatened to remove all links to New Zealand news content if the bill, which mirrors Australia's News Media Bargaining Code, is passed. The analysis explores whether this represents a genuine shift in Google's regional strategy or a tactical move to secure an exemption similar to its C$100 million annual deal in Canada.

### SVOD’s profit challenge to drive further price pressure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/svod-profit-challenge-price-pressure-2024
- Published: 2024-09-27
- Author: David Kennedy

Today, Netflix’s global dominance of SVOD seems set in concrete, with a successful 2023 crackdown on password sharing driving a return to subscriber growth. Amongst the other global streamers, only Disney+ has achieved a profit (in 2023). We think the next step for SVOD is another round of price increases, possibly in 2025 as economic growth picks up. But there is a risk that Australian households won’t play that game. If that is replicated globally, a medium term restructuring of the industry is likely.

### Mis/disinformation legislation puts Government credibility at risk
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/misinformation-bill-government-credibility-risk
- Published: 2024-09-20
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Government’s Misinformation and Disinformation Bill 2024, arguing that while social media harms are real, the proposed legislative response creates significant risks for government credibility. By positioning the ACMA as an arbiter of truth, the Bill threatens both freedom of speech and public trust. The analysis highlights how revised definitions of 'verifiable' information and broad harm thresholds could lead to the suppression of legitimate, albeit controversial, public debate.

### Impending privacy reforms driving rethink on ad targeting
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/impending-privacy-reforms-ad-targeting-rethink
- Published: 2024-09-13
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian Government has introduced the first tranche of draft changes to the Privacy Act 1988, with more significant reforms due shortly. These changes impose new requirements on personal information holders, specifically targeting advertising platforms. Key provisions include a statutory tort for serious privacy invasions and a 'fair and reasonable' test for data collection. This report analyzes how these reforms will force a review of data handling and digital advertising practices across the Australian market.

### Digital advertising growth highlights platform dominance
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/digital-advertising-growth-platform-dominance-fy24
- Published: 2024-09-06
- Author: David Kennedy

The Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB) Australia published data on digital advertising spend this week. The full year figures show strong digital ad growth, led by search and display. This data will be ammunition for those pushing the federal Government to enforce the news bargaining code, and rein in platform economic power more generally.

### Five-Year Media Industry Outlook 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/five-year-media-industry-outlook-2024
- Published: 2024-09-04
- Author: David Kennedy

This report reviews the technology and market trends shaping the media industry in Australia and New Zealand over the next five years. It analyzes how traditional media is evolving into a hybrid model, combining broadcast delivery with targeted on-demand platforms to compete with 'born digital' players. Key focus areas include the impact of programmatic advertising, the role of generative AI in content production, and the regulatory challenges posed by global platforms amassing bottleneck power over advertising channels.

### Nike shows that brand (and TV) advertising is still key
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nike-brand-tv-advertising-key
- Published: 2024-08-02
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Nike's recent financial slump, including a US$25b loss in market capitalisation, attributed to an ill-considered shift from brand-led to digital-only marketing. It demonstrates that while digital tools offer precision, they cannot replace the high-attention and emotional engagement provided by traditional TV advertising. The brief argues that TV remains underpriced relative to its effectiveness and is essential for maintaining brand visibility and long-term business success in a post-pandemic market.

### Google shifts ground on cookie deprecation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/google-shifts-ground-cookie-deprecation
- Published: 2024-07-26
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Google's sudden reversal of its long-standing plan to phase out third-party cookies in the Chrome browser. Instead of a total deprecation, Google is proposing an updated approach that elevates user choice through an opt-in/out experience. This shift follows significant industry pushback and regulatory scrutiny from the UK's CMA and ICO, suggesting that Privacy Sandbox alternatives like FLoC and Topics API are not yet mature enough to replace existing tracking technologies without risking market stability.

### Will beating Meta be enough to save news media?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/meta-news-media-bargaining-code-analysis
- Published: 2024-06-28
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the impact of Meta's decision to cease news licensing agreements in Australia. While Meta claims news represents less than 3% of feed content, 32% of online Australians still rely on the platform for news access. The brief argues that while government intervention via the News Bargaining Code is essential to prevent immediate industry contraction, it will not solve the deeper structural imbalances in the programmatic advertising market dominated by tech giants.

### News fragmentation a challenge for old mastheads
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/news-fragmentation-challenge-old-mastheads
- Published: 2024-06-21
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the shifting landscape of news consumption in Australia based on the University of Canberra’s Digital News Report. It highlights a significant rise in news fragmentation, with 25% of Australians now citing social media as their main news source, up from 18% in 2016. The brief explores the diverging definitions of 'trust' across generations and the resulting challenges for traditional mastheads as they compete with social platforms and independent creators for audience attention and advertising revenue.

### Australian music streaming market still growing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-music-streaming-market-growth-forecast
- Published: 2024-06-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the maturation of the Australian music streaming market, forecasting a shift from subscriber acquisition to revenue expansion via price increases. While the market was highly fragmented before 2016, it is now dominated by four global players: Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, and YouTube Music. Subscription revenue is projected to grow at a 10.6% CAGR from FY23 to FY28, eventually accounting for 94% of total industry revenues as operators leverage high subscriber loyalty to improve profitability.

### Australian music streaming market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-music-streaming-market-forecast-2028
- Published: 2024-06-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the Australian music streaming industry’s online revenues. The market, once fragmented, is now dominated by Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, and YouTube Music. With maturing subscription growth, major operators have increased prices, sustaining revenue expansion. Between FY23 and FY28, the industry is projected to grow subscription revenue at 10.6%, when it will finally account for 94% of industry revenues. Advertising revenues are also expected to grow at 6.9% and will comprise the balance of total industry revenues.

### EU/US social media regulation - lessons for ANZ
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/eu-us-social-media-regulation-anz-lessons
- Published: 2024-06-07
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report highlights the need for small nations like Australia and New Zealand to converge with global precedent when regulating social media content, particularly the EU and the US. Both the EU and the US are currently implementing major social media content regulation initiatives that will set these precedents. Australia and New Zealand should avoid divergent approaches to regulation, adopting a fast follower strategy. Transparency in algorithmic processes and expanding codes of practice are crucial. Even if these recommendations are adopted, there will be significant technical and policy challenges in social media content regulation, and a complete solution is not realistic.

### ANZ social media regulators should adopt “fast follower” strategy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/anz-social-media-fast-follower-strategy
- Published: 2024-06-07
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the regulatory landscape for social media in Australia and New Zealand, arguing that these smaller markets lack the leverage to impose unique rules on global platforms. It recommends a 'fast follower' strategy, adopting frameworks established by larger jurisdictions like the European Union, which represents nearly 450 million people. By aligning with the EU Digital Services Act and the US Kids Online Safety Act, ANZ regulators can implement proven transparency and safety measures without facing insurmountable resistance from global tech giants.

### Digital future driving SCA/ARN conflict
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/digital-future-driving-sca-arn-conflict
- Published: 2024-05-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the strategic conflict between Southern Cross Austereo (SCA) and ARN, focusing on the valuation of digital audio platforms. It forecasts that radio industry digital ad revenue from streaming and podcasting will approach $200 million per annum by FY28. The analysis suggests SCA's LiSTNR is emerging as the stronger platform, having achieved 36% growth between FY21 and FY23, which may explain SCA's resistance to recent merger proposals that potentially undervalued its digital upside.

### Music streaming dominance under threat
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/music-streaming-dominance-under-threat
- Published: 2024-05-09
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian music streaming market, finding that 13.0 million adults used streaming apps in 2023. While takeup continues to rise, growth is decelerating as the market reaches maturity. The analysis highlights a stark contrast between music streaming and SVOD, noting that the average music user utilizes 1.54 apps, with Spotify and YouTube Music leading the market. Tighter household budgets are expected to drive users toward lower-cost alternatives like radio and podcasts.

### Online safety dispute cracks policy ‘consensus’
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/online-safety-dispute-policy-consensus
- Published: 2024-04-26
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the escalating legal and political dispute between the Australian eSafety Commission and X (formerly Twitter) regarding global content removal notices. Following a violent incident in Sydney, the Commission issued a notice to remove graphic video globally, a move X has challenged in court. The brief highlights how this case has fractured the previous bipartisan consensus on online safety, with the Opposition now questioning the feasibility of Australia acting as a global 'internet police'.

### Advertising industry faces a sluggish FY25
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/advertising-industry-sluggish-fy25-forecast
- Published: 2024-04-12
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the correlation between Australian GDP growth and advertising expenditure, forecasting a sluggish FY25 following a projected 5% decline in FY24. While the pandemic rebound drove 18.7% growth in FY22, current economic headwinds have led to falls across every category, with television particularly impacted. The analysis explores the divergent outlooks for digital, audio, and outdoor sectors versus traditional free-to-air television, which faces increasing pressure from retail media and SVOD platforms.

### Public broadcasters can rebuild trust in fragmented media
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/public-broadcasters-trust-fragmented-media
- Published: 2024-04-04
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the dual fragmentation of media consumption and audience segments, which challenges the ability of public broadcasters to fulfill their national charter obligations. As traditional 500-year-old literacy culture fades, media is shifting toward 'packetization'—the breakdown of long-form content into short-form snippets for social media. While social media algorithms prioritize engagement over truth, public broadcasters retain a unique competitive advantage through persistent high levels of public trust, which can be leveraged to anchor national identity in a digital-first environment.

### Time for new thinking on support for local news
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/support-for-local-news-brief
- Published: 2024-03-22
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the structural decline of local news media in Australia and New Zealand, driven by the migration of advertising revenue to global search and social media platforms. Data from the Public Interest Journalism Initiative (PIJI) reveals a net loss of 94 news outlets across Australia between 2019 and 2021, with regional areas bearing 77% of these closures. The brief argues that current episodic support is insufficient and calls for a new, ongoing policy framework to protect democratic participation.

### Retail advertising growth must be kept in perspective
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/retail-advertising-growth-perspective-fmcg
- Published: 2024-03-15
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the rapid growth of retail advertising in Australia, specifically focusing on the media arms of Coles and Woolworths. While Coles 360 reported a 27% increase in media income and Woolworths' Cartology saw 29% growth in FY23, the analysis suggests the threat to traditional broadcast media is currently limited to the FMCG sector. The brief evaluates how retailers use loyalty data to improve ROI transparency, potentially challenging global digital incumbents like Google and Facebook.

### Meta stoush is just the opening salvo
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/meta-stoush-opening-salvo-media-regulation
- Published: 2024-03-08
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Meta's decision to cease renewing compensation agreements with Australian news providers, a move that threatens an estimated $200 million in annual revenue for the local media sector. The brief explores the likelihood of Meta blocking news content entirely, as seen in Canada, and frames this conflict as the opening salvo in a wider global struggle between Western governments and platform 'robber barons' over competition, privacy, and disinformation regulation.

### Is generative AI an inflection point for the traditional vs social media battle?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/generative-ai-traditional-vs-social-media
- Published: 2024-02-16
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the shifting dynamics between traditional media and social platforms, specifically X, in the context of generative AI. While X attempts to position itself as a primary news source by bypassing editorial constraints, the 2024 global election cycle presents a significant risk of deepfake-driven disinformation. The brief argues that the resulting 'wilderness of mirrors' may inadvertently strengthen the value proposition of traditional media outlets that maintain rigorous editorial standards and verified reporting processes.

### News Corp’s Foxtel holds the line, but danger looms
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/foxtel-revenue-holds-svod-growth-slows
- Published: 2024-02-09
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses News Corp’s December 2023 half-year results for Foxtel, which recorded a 3% revenue increase to $476 million in local currency. While price increases for pay TV and SVOD services have successfully bolstered the top line, the report highlights a significant slowdown in subscription growth for Binge and Kayo. With pay TV subscriptions falling 7.7% over calendar 2023, Foxtel is pivotally shifting its focus toward advertising and programmatic platforms to offset the maturing streaming market.

### 2024 Media trends to watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/2024-media-trends-regulation-ai
- Published: 2024-02-02
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the critical intersection of traditional media and global platforms in 2024, focusing on the Australian and New Zealand markets. It identifies three primary drivers of change: the implementation of prominence rules for free-to-air television, the commercial and ethical challenges posed by generative AI, and the intensifying competition in the video advertising market. The brief highlights how regulatory shifts and technological advancements in AI will force a renegotiation of value between content creators and technology providers.

### Europe Media Report - January 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/europe-media-report-january-2024
- Published: 2024-01-30
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyzes the evolving media landscape in Europe, focusing on the transition from terrestrial broadcast to IP-based delivery and the surge in digital platform regulation. Key developments include BT Group's MAUD technology for efficient live streaming and the ITU's decision to postpone spectrum reallocation until 2032. Additionally, the report examines the implementation of the EU Digital Services Act and the UK Online Safety Act, highlighting the increasing legal and regulatory pressure on platforms like TikTok regarding privacy and misinformation.

### Amazon’s cricket acquisition may shed light on new anti-siphoning policy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/amazon-cricket-anti-siphoning-policy-analysis
- Published: 2023-12-08
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Amazon Prime’s acquisition of exclusive Australian broadcast rights for major cricket events through 2027. While the deal currently dodges anti-siphoning lists because matches are played outside Australia, it serves as a critical test case for the federal government's 'Model 2' reform. The analysis highlights the digital divide, noting that 15% of households lack fixed broadband, potentially excluding them from paywalled sports content as rights shift from free-to-air broadcasters to SVOD platforms.

### ARN/SCA deal can strengthen radio’s online advertising
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/arn-sca-deal-online-audio-advertising
- Published: 2023-12-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian digital audio advertising market following the joint publication of quarterly figures by the IAB and CRA. Total digital audio spending reached $68 million in the September quarter, representing a 16.2% year-on-year increase. The brief explores how a proposed deal between ARN and SCA could create a unified online audio ad desk, leveraging regulatory exemptions to strengthen the local industry's position against global competitors like Spotify and Apple.

### Europe Media Report - November 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/europe-media-report-november-2023
- Published: 2023-11-28
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses significant regulatory shifts in the European and UK media landscapes, focusing on the European Data Protection Board's expanded ban on Meta's behavioral advertising and the UK's comprehensive Media Reform Bill. It evaluates how these developments, including new prominence requirements for public service broadcasters on digital platforms and the regulation of video-on-demand services, serve as critical benchmarks for the Australian and New Zealand media sectors as they navigate competition with global digital giants.

### FTA prominence and the platform regulation agenda
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/fta-prominence-platform-regulation-agenda
- Published: 2023-11-24
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the Australian Government's commitment to introduce draft prominence legislation by the end of 2023 to ensure Free-to-Air (FTA) TV services remain visible on digital platforms. It analyzes the shift from theoretical platform bottleneck power to actual commercial threats, such as Amazon's withdrawn attempt to levy FTA providers. The brief positions prominence reform as the opening salvo in a broader regulatory agenda targeting platform self-preferencing and interoperability restrictions documented by the ACCC.

### Will FTA TV maintain its policy pre-eminence?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/fta-tv-policy-pre-eminence-svod-quotas
- Published: 2023-11-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Government's draft proposals for Australian content rules for subscription video on demand (SVOD) providers. While SVOD operators spent $324 million on local production in FY23, the brief argues that free-to-air (FTA) TV will maintain its policy pre-eminence. This is driven by Australia's unique geography, where 15% of residences lack fixed broadband, and the critical role of FTA in delivering news and current affairs that global SVOD platforms cannot replicate.

### News media bargaining debate set to reignite in 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/news-media-bargaining-debate-2024
- Published: 2023-11-10
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the upcoming 2024 renewal of agreements between Australian news publishers and social media platforms under the News Media Bargaining Code framework. While Meta has implemented algorithm changes resulting in a 40-50% decline in referral traffic for text-based news, Nine Network reports a significant increase in the consumption of news-related video content across Facebook and Instagram Reels. The document explores the potential for the Treasurer to activate designation powers if negotiations fail to conclude before current agreements expire.

### SBS gambling opt-out sets a standard
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/sbs-gambling-opt-out-standard
- Published: 2023-11-03
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses SBS's 2024 Upfront initiatives, specifically the introduction of a new opt-out feature for wagering, alcohol, and quick service restaurant (QSR) advertising on SBS On Demand. With online gambling advertising growing at a 13% CAGR since 2007 to reach $300 million annually, SBS is positioning itself ahead of potential comprehensive bans recommended by the SCSPLA. The move reflects a strategic shift toward audience-driven customisation and data empowerment in a tightening regulatory environment.

### Amazon backdown reflects Government’s new FTA policy priority
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/amazon-fire-tv-levy-backdown-fta-policy
- Published: 2023-10-06
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Amazon's decision to back away from a proposed 30% levy on advertising revenue for apps on its Fire TV platform in Australia. The move follows significant criticism from local free-to-air (FTA) networks and the Australian Government. The brief explores how this reversal reflects a broader policy shift toward prioritizing the FTA TV ecosystem through upcoming prominence frameworks, anti-siphoning lists, and local content rules, marking a departure from previous 'harmonisation' regulatory approaches.

### Five-year Outlook for Media in Australia and New Zealand 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/anz-media-five-year-outlook-2023
- Published: 2023-10-05
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the structural transition of the Australia and New Zealand media sector over the next five years. It forecasts that while traditional broadcast remains a core differentiator, the rise of IP delivery and programmatic advertising will force a shift toward hybrid mass-digital models. Key findings include the stabilization of SVOD minutes by mid-decade and the increasing threat of global device platforms using bottleneck power to restrict access to local broadcaster content.

### Smart speaker threat to radio foreshadows a new media ecosystem
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/smart-speaker-threat-radio-media-ecosystem
- Published: 2023-09-27
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the emerging threat posed by smart speaker platforms to the traditional radio industry, drawing parallels to the gatekeeper power currently seen in the FTA TV sector. It examines the UK's draft Media Bill as a regulatory blueprint for ensuring radio prominence and preventing global tech giants from charging for access or overlaying third-party advertising. The brief highlights how platform dominance by companies like Amazon, Samsung, and LG creates a bottleneck that risks the survival of localized Australian media content.

### Samsung’s Tizen & LG’s Web OS Face New Project Magento Competitor
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/samsung-tizen-lg-webos-magento-competitor
- Published: 2023-09-22
- Author: David Richards

This report examines the emergence of the Magento platform, a joint venture between News Corp, Comcast, and UK Sky, designed to disrupt the Australian smart TV operating system market currently dominated by Samsung's Tizen and LG's WebOS. With 55% of Australian households expressing a willingness to pay for a single app that consolidates all streaming services, Magento aims to solve 'streaming clutter' through a unified payment gateway and interface. The platform will initially launch via a hardware 'puck' before potentially expanding to third-party TV manufacturers.

### SVOD content rules facing a new reality
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/svod-content-rules-new-reality
- Published: 2023-09-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian federal government's decision to delay the introduction of SVOD content quotas until 2024. While the government remains committed to a July 2024 implementation, the industry landscape has shifted from rapid growth to retrenchment. Production industry representatives are lobbying for a 20% expenditure share, while operators argue for a rate closer to 5%. The brief evaluates how slowing subscriber growth and the end of double-digit production inflation are altering the rationale for these regulatory imposts.

### Meta’s retreat from news will force publishers to adapt
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/meta-retreat-news-publishers-adapt
- Published: 2023-09-07
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the strategic withdrawal of Meta from the news ecosystem, noting that US news organisations have seen Facebook referrals fall by approximately 40% over the last year. Similar trends are emerging in Australia as Meta adjusts its algorithm to de-emphasise hard news in favor of lifestyle content. The brief explores the implications of Meta's decision to shut down the Facebook News tab in Europe and its refusal to pay for news content in Canada, signaling a permanent shift in social media distribution strategy.

### Virtual reality market needs a new ecosystem
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/virtual-reality-market-ecosystem-needs
- Published: 2023-08-25
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the current state of the virtual reality (VR) market, noting that while headset hardware is advancing with premium entries like Apple's Vision Pro, a broader ecosystem is lacking. Household penetration in Australia remains low at 3%, heavily skewed toward higher-income brackets and specific age demographics. The analysis suggests that the path to mass-market viability lies in enterprise-level productivity applications and cross-industry partnerships rather than gaming and entertainment alone.

### AI compensation for publishers will draw in regulators
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ai-compensation-publishers-regulators-news-corp
- Published: 2023-08-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the emerging bargaining power of content providers in the AI ecosystem, highlighted by News Corp's recent negotiations with platform providers. While major publishers are securing commercial terms for content ingestion and search surfacing, smaller entities in health and education lack the scale to negotiate effectively. The brief argues that regulatory intervention, similar to Australia's News Bargaining Code, is necessary to prevent market bias and ensure broad access to quality training data.

### SVOD facing a consumer revolt?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/svod-facing-consumer-revolt-australia
- Published: 2023-08-10
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the shifting dynamics of the Australian SVOD market following a period of steady growth. While household penetration reached 2.2 subscriptions in June 2023, recent survey data indicates a significant cooling in consumer sentiment. With 20% of households planning to cancel a service and only 14% intending to sign up for a new one, the industry faces a potential net decline in total subscriptions. The brief explores the impact of price increases and the rising cost of living on discretionary media spending.

### Musk’s X ambition faces growing barriers
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/musk-x-ambition-growing-barriers
- Published: 2023-08-04
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the strategic obstacles facing Elon Musk’s rebranding of Twitter into 'X', a proposed super-app modelled after China’s WeChat. While WeChat launched in 2011 and successfully integrated financial services and ride-hailing, the Western market has reached 'peak platform' where consumers prefer independent, efficient apps. The brief highlights growing political resistance to 'bottleneck power' and tightening privacy regulations as primary factors that will likely disrupt the synergies Musk hopes to exploit in the ANZ and global markets.

### Generative TV will generate content industry conflict
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/generative-tv-content-industry-conflict
- Published: 2023-07-21
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the rapid progress of AI tools in TV production, specifically focusing on Fable Studio's ability to generate a full 22-minute Southpark episode from a single prompt. While current outputs exhibit script banality, the technology demonstrates a capacity to integrate storylines, visuals, and voices. This evolution signals a once-in-a-generation disruption for content production, likely leading to significant cost reductions for distributors while creating economic conflict for writers, actors, and post-production staff.

### Mis/disinformation regulation - benefits, risks, and one big gap
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/mis-disinformation-regulation-benefits-risks-gap
- Published: 2023-07-13
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the exposure draft of the Communications Legislation Amendment (Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2023. It evaluates the proposed powers for ACMA to impose industry codes and mandatory standards on digital platforms. While the bill aims to bring transparency to opaque content moderation processes, it faces significant risks regarding institutional credibility and the potential for overzealous suppression of legitimate debate. The analysis suggests a need for symmetrical regulation that protects freedom of speech as rigorously as it targets misinformation.

### Australian Advertising Market Outlook – June 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-advertising-market-outlook-june-2023
- Published: 2023-06-26
- Author: David Kennedy

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the Australian advertising market through FY27, analyzing the impact of macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer behaviors. While total advertising expenditure reached $20.8 billion in FY22, a GDP slowdown is expected to trigger a 5.0% market contraction in FY24. The analysis details segment-specific outlooks, highlighting the continued dominance of digital advertising, the rapid growth of Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD), and the structural decline of traditional print and linear television formats.

### Buzzfeed AI innovation highlights value of media content
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/buzzfeed-ai-innovation-media-content-value
- Published: 2023-06-06
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses BuzzFeed's launch of its first AI chatbot, Botatouille, within the Tasty app ecosystem. It examines the strategic shift from web-scraping to leveraging proprietary culinary insights to drive user engagement. The brief argues that as AI technology becomes commodified, the real value and differentiation for media companies lie in their unique content libraries. This strategy aims to reduce dependence on global advertising giants and social media platforms by building direct, personalized relationships with audiences.

### Netflix password crackdown accelerates SVOD monetisation push
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/netflix-password-crackdown-svod-monetisation
- Published: 2023-05-29
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Netflix's strategic shift toward monetisation through its password-sharing crackdown in Australia and New Zealand. By enforcing household-based account restrictions and introducing a $7.99 monthly fee for extra members, Netflix aims to stabilise its business model following the pandemic-era growth surge. The brief explores the implications for the broader SVOD industry, as well as the competitive opportunities created for Free-to-Air (FTA) and Pay TV providers in a high-interest-rate environment.

### AI chatbots drive another round of copyright angst
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ai-chatbots-copyright-angst-brief
- Published: 2023-04-26
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the escalating tension between generative AI platforms and copyright holders across news, music, and image databases. As AI models train on vast content sources including Reddit threads and Getty Images' 12 million-image database, owners are seeking regulatory and commercial solutions. The brief highlights a shift toward API-based monetization and legal challenges, suggesting that the news bargaining code serves as a critical precedent for future AI content licensing frameworks.

### The global platforms’ gilded age is closing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/global-platforms-gilded-age-closing
- Published: 2023-04-11
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the shifting regulatory landscape for global digital platforms and device makers, focusing on the Australian Government's proposed discoverability framework for Free-to-Air (FTA) television. It argues that the historical reliance on competition-based policy is giving way to a more interventionist approach designed to offset the concentrated power of global tech giants. This transition marks the end of a 'gilded age' for platforms, as governments move to protect national interests and local media industries through mandated discoverability and bargaining codes.

### AU Economic Outlook, March 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/au-economic-outlook-march-2023-robotics
- Published: 2023-03-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the Australian economic landscape following the ABS December 2022 quarterly report, highlighting a 0.5% GDP growth alongside a 33-year high inflation rate of 7.8%. It examines the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance on interest rates, the resulting pressure on small business credit and consumer discretionary spending, and provides a disruptive technology outlook on the burgeoning humanoid robotics market, specifically Tesla's Optimus project.

### FTA TV builds its industry infrastructure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/fta-tv-shared-ad-platform-infrastructure
- Published: 2023-03-13
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the strategic move by Australia's free-to-air (FTA) television networks—Seven, Nine, and Ten—to develop a shared digital advertising platform. Managed by OzTAM, the initiative aims to consolidate BVOD inventory to better compete with global giants like YouTube, which currently generates an estimated $2b in annual local ad revenue. By creating a unified sales infrastructure, the industry seeks to capture an additional $200m per annum by offering agencies streamlined, data-driven cross-network campaign deployment.

### Foxtel/Warner deal shows content houses are diversifying
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/foxtel-warner-deal-content-diversification
- Published: 2023-03-06
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the strategic implications of the renewed content agreement between Foxtel and Warner Bros. Discovery. The deal, estimated at approximately $200 million per annum, secures critical HBO titles for Foxtel's Binge service while delaying the launch of a standalone HBO Max service in Australia until at least 2025. This shift reflects a broader industry trend where content houses are moving away from rigid vertical integration in favor of diversified distribution to maximize monetization across pay TV and SVOD platforms.

### Video Entertainment Market Forecast & Outlook – November 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-video-entertainment-market-forecast-2022
- Published: 2022-11-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the Australian video entertainment market to grow at a 5.4% CAGR over FY22-26, reaching A$8.3bn. Growth is primarily driven by the SVOD sector, which is expected to expand at an 11.3% CAGR to A$5.3bn by FY26, overwhelming declines in premium pay-TV and physical media. The analysis covers market shifts across SVOD, Pay-TV, Cinema, and TVOD/EST, highlighting the impact of ad-supported tiers and rising household penetration.

### Media roundup of July 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/media-roundup-july-2022-fy22-results
- Published: 2022-09-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key events and trends shaping the Australian and New Zealand media markets, focusing on the full-year FY22 results for major commercial broadcasters. It highlights a significant advertising recovery with television advertising revenues growing 11% and radio industry revenues increasing 9% in the year to June 2022. The analysis covers performance metrics for Foxtel, Seven West Media, Nine Network, SCA, and ARN, while also examining the legal implications of the High Court's decision regarding Google's status as a publisher.

### Australian Advertising Market Outlook – September 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-advertising-market-outlook-september-2022
- Published: 2022-09-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report provides a comprehensive outlook for the Australian advertising market through FY26, analyzing the impact of macroeconomic instability and slowing GDP growth. While the post-pandemic recovery saw a 19.4% surge in FY22 expenditure, the RBA's revised growth forecasts suggest a flattish FY23 followed by a 5.9% contraction in FY24. Digital advertising remains the dominant segment, projected to reach a 69.5% market share by 2026, even as traditional formats like television and print face continued structural declines.

### Media roundup of July 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/media-roundup-july-2022-netflix-radio
- Published: 2022-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the July 2022 media landscape in Australia and New Zealand, focusing on the structural shift in the SVOD market and the digital transformation of radio. Netflix reported a net loss of 970,000 subscribers globally, signaling a transition from rapid growth to a 'serial monogamy' churn model. Conversely, Australian metropolitan radio listening grew 7.6% YoY, driven by a 34% increase in streaming audiences. The report also evaluates the upcoming expiration of the TV sport anti-siphoning list in April 2023.

### 5-year Outlook: Media sector in Australia and NZ
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/anz-media-sector-5-year-outlook-2022
- Published: 2022-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the emerging technology and market changes shaping the media industry in Australia and New Zealand over the next five years. It forecasts a major transition for traditional media as they adopt hybrid models to compete with 'born digital' players. Key drivers include the rise of ubiquitous IP delivery, programmatic advertising platforms, and a surge in content production demand. While traditional broadcast remains core, BVOD and live streaming are expected to account for 15% of all FTA viewing by 2026.

### Media Roundup of May 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/media-roundup-may-2022-labor-policy-shift
- Published: 2022-06-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key events shaping the Australian and New Zealand media markets following the May 2022 federal election. It evaluates the Labor Government's likely shift toward mandatory requirements for digital platforms and the reinstatement of $87 million in funding for the ABC. Additionally, the report assesses Netflix's global loss of 200,000 subscribers and its plans for an ad-supported tier, concluding that local impact on the Australian video ad market remains several years away.

### Media Roundup of March 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/media-roundup-march-2022-amazon-mgm
- Published: 2022-04-08
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key media events in Australia and New Zealand for March 2022, focusing on Amazon's $US8.5 billion acquisition of MGM and its implications for local SVOD players. It examines the Australian Government's announcement of tougher online misinformation laws giving ACMA new reserve powers. Additionally, the report evaluates Southern Cross Austereo's (SCA) intention to sell its regional television assets, identifying Network Ten as a primary potential suitor in a consolidating market where regional viewers constitute 36% of the total audience.

### Audio Market Outlook: Podcasting set to boost the audio market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/audio-market-outlook-podcasting-growth
- Published: 2022-04-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the Australian audio market, forecasting a 11.6% CAGR in total audio app usage from FY22 to FY26. While music streaming remains the most mature segment, podcasting is identified as the primary growth engine with an expected 18.4% CAGR. The analysis covers market share shifts among major providers like Spotify, YouTube Music, and LiSTNR, while highlighting the resilience of broadcast radio which maintains a 65% monthly reach among adult demographics.

### Video Entertainment Market Outlook – March 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/video-entertainment-market-outlook-march-2022
- Published: 2022-03-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report provides a comprehensive outlook on the Australian video entertainment market, forecasting growth to A$7.0bn by FY25. Driven by a 10.5% CAGR in SVOD revenues, the digital shift is offsetting structural declines in Premium Pay-TV and physical media. The analysis examines the competitive landscape between incumbents like Netflix and Stan against new entrants like Disney+, while detailing the post-pandemic recovery trajectory for cinema and the steady growth of TVOD/EST services through 2025.

### Australian Advertising Market Outlook - March 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-advertising-market-outlook-march-2022
- Published: 2022-03-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report provides a comprehensive outlook for the Australian advertising market from 2020 to 2025. It forecasts a total market CAGR of 5.7%, reaching $20.375 billion by FY25. While the market saw a strong 16.3% recovery in FY21 following COVID-19 disruptions, growth is expected to moderate as digital channels—particularly mobile and video—become the primary drivers, eventually representing over 70% of total expenditure. The analysis covers television, print, radio, outdoor, cinema, and digital sub-segments.

### Media Roundup of February 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/media-roundup-february-2022-analysis
- Published: 2022-03-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key events shaping the Australian and New Zealand media markets in early 2022. It highlights the Government's response to the Green Paper media reform, which leaves the Free-to-Air (FTA) TV industry facing spectrum uncertainty. Additionally, it examines the ACCC's five-year review of digital platform regulation and the ABC's strategic decision to add over 50 regional journalists using revenue from the mandatory media code. Finally, it reviews Foxtel's successful pivot to a hybrid pay/SVOD model.

### 2022 Media Trends to Watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/2022-media-trends-bvod-ai-regulation
- Published: 2022-02-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the critical market trends expected to impact the Australian and New Zealand media industry throughout 2022. It highlights the mainstreaming of Broadcast Video-on-Demand (BVOD), which saw revenues grow over 300% between 2017 and 2021. The analysis further explores the shift of the audio market to online platforms, the regulatory challenges facing social media giants, and the increasing role of artificial intelligence in content personalization and strategic decision-making for media firms.

### Media Roundup of January
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/media-roundup-january-2022-spotify-svod
- Published: 2022-02-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key trends in the AU/NZ media market, focusing on Spotify's $900 million investment in podcast technology and the regulatory pressure on Smart TV manufacturers to ensure free-to-air prominence. It further examines the ACMA data showing a 17% increase in SVOD spending on Australian programs, reaching $178.9 million in FY21, while Australian-related content investment surged by 291% to $450 million, highlighting a growing supply-demand gap in the local production sector.

### Media Roundup of November
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/media-roundup-november-2021-arn-disney
- Published: 2021-12-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key events in the Australian and New Zealand media markets for November 2021, focusing on the introduction of federal anti-troll legislation, ARN's $307.5 million acquisition of Grant Broadcasters, and the shifting competitive landscape of the SVOD market. It evaluates the impact of algorithmic content promotion on social media and forecasts that Disney+ will overtake Amazon Prime for the number two market position by 2024 as global majors entrench their dominance through vertical integration.

### Media Roundup of October
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/media-roundup-october-2021-google-accc
- Published: 2021-11-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key media market shifts in Australia and New Zealand during October 2021, focusing on Seven West Media's acquisition of Prime Television and the ACCC's findings on Google's market dominance. It evaluates the national advertising budget of $17.7b in FY21, noting that 64% is now digital. The brief also examines the evolving regulatory landscape for social media platforms regarding defamation and misinformation, proposing a new 'sui generis' regulatory framework to address systemic content issues.

### Australian content rules: harmonisation or orchestration in the golden age of production?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-content-rules-harmonisation-orchestration
- Published: 2021-10-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report explores the Federal Government’s Green Paper proposals to harmonise local content rules across free-to-air and SVOD platforms. It finds that the Australian production industry has entered a 'golden age' of growth, with online drama spending reaching $94 million in FY20, a 53% CAGR since FY17. However, the industry faces a severe capacity crunch, with 95% of producers reporting cost increases. The analysis suggests that supply-side interventions are more critical than new output quotas to sustain long-term growth.

### Video Entertainment Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-video-entertainment-market-outlook-2025
- Published: 2021-09-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the Australian video entertainment market to grow at a 5.0% CAGR to approximately A$6.5bn by FY25. Growth is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of SVOD services, which saw a 44% revenue jump in FY21 due to pandemic lockdowns. While traditional formats like Premium Pay-TV and physical media face structural declines, the shift toward digital formats continues to redefine consumer spending, with average household spend expected to rise to A$620 by FY25.

### Australian Advertising Market Outlook 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-advertising-market-outlook-2021
- Published: 2021-09-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian advertising market's recovery from COVID-19, forecasting a 5.4% CAGR from FY20 to FY25. Following a 6.8% decline in FY20, the market surged 16.3% in FY21 to reach A$17.7 billion. Digital advertising remains the primary growth engine, with its market share rising from 58.5% in FY20 to a projected 69.9% by 2025. The analysis details segment-specific outlooks for television, print, radio, outdoor, cinema, and digital sub-segments including mobile and video.

### Monthly Media Roundup of July 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/monthly-media-roundup-july-2021
- Published: 2021-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the key events shaping the Australian and New Zealand media markets in July 2021. It examines the surprising resilience of advertising spend despite renewed lockdowns, the strategic dilemma facing Foxtel as it contemplates an IPO amidst streaming consolidation, and the impact of the ACCC's bargaining code on regional media. The analysis highlights how digital and TV channels are leading the advertising recovery while traditional broadcast revenues continue to face significant downward pressure.

### Monthly Media Roundup – June 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/monthly-media-roundup-june-2021
- Published: 2021-07-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key trends in the Australian and New Zealand media markets for June 2021, focusing on the TV content production industry, radio's integration into automotive interfaces, and the emerging SVOD market for sports rights. It highlights industry-wide concerns regarding the extension of Australian content rules to SVOD providers, which could drive up production prices in a resource-constrained market. Additionally, it examines the strategic moves by Stan, Amazon Prime, and Kayo as they compete for premium sporting content.

### 5-year Outlook: Media sector in Australia and NZ
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/anz-media-sector-5-year-outlook
- Published: 2021-07-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the emerging technology and market changes shaping the media industry in Australia and New Zealand over the next five years. It forecasts that FTA live streaming and broadcast video on demand (BVOD) will reach 25% of all FTA viewing by 2026. The analysis explores the shift toward programmatic advertising, the rise of ubiquitous IP delivery, and the 'golden age' of content production, while highlighting the structural reforms required for regional media to remain viable in a digital-first ecosystem.

### Pandemic accelerates mobile payments in New Zealand
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/pandemic-accelerates-nz-mobile-payments
- Published: 2021-04-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the rapid acceleration of mobile payment adoption in New Zealand, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing smartphone penetration. With approximately NZ$1.4bn in annual commission revenue at stake, the industry is ripe for disruption. The analysis explores consumer preferences across demographics, noting that while 78% of New Zealanders use mobile banking, only 63% currently utilize mobile payments, representing a significant untapped market for digital wallet providers and financial incumbents.

### Nine, SevenWest results reflect COVID19 rebound, transition to digital
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nine-sevenwest-1h21-earnings-digital-transition
- Published: 2021-03-11
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the 1H21 earnings of Nine Entertainment Corporation (NEC) and SevenWest Media (SWM), highlighting a recovery from COVID-19 disruptions alongside a critical transition to digital platforms. While Metro FTA growth turned positive in 1H21 for the first time since 2017, the core business faces a 3.8% CAGR decline. The analysis focuses on how both networks are leveraging BVOD growth, with NEC's 9Now and SWM's 7plus reaching record digital revenues to counter structural headwinds in traditional broadcast.

### Video viewing survey: household consumption across formats to remain stable in the near future
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-video-viewing-survey-2021
- Published: 2021-02-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report presents survey results across 1,003 Australian households, highlighting video viewing habits, device usage, and expectations across FTA, Pay TV, Catch-up TV, and SVOD formats. While TV remains the most ubiquitous device, the market is transitioning toward internet-connected and 4K-capable hardware. Netflix maintains a 62% market share, though competition from Disney+, Stan, and Amazon Prime is intensifying. Despite long-term decline forecasts for linear formats, COVID-19 impacts have temporarily stabilized consumption levels.

### Top 5 Media Trends for 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/top-5-media-trends-2021
- Published: 2021-02-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report identifies five critical trends shaping the Australian media landscape in 2021, forecasting a significant slowdown in SVOD subscription growth from 40% p.a. in 2019 to 7% p.a. by 2024. It examines the 'fundamental reset' of the sports rights market following COVID-19 disruptions, the regulatory backlash against global digital platforms, and the impending demise of third-party cookies. Additionally, the analysis highlights the existential challenges facing regional media as technological change favors national and international players.

### Video Entertainment Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/video-entertainment-market-outlook-2021
- Published: 2021-01-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report forecasts the Australian video entertainment market to decline at a 2% CAGR to approximately A$5.5bn by 2024. While COVID-19 lockdowns provided a significant 34% YoY revenue boost for SVOD in FY20, traditional formats like Pay-TV and physical media face structural erosion. The analysis details the shift in household spending, where average annual spend is expected to fall from A$599 in FY20 to A$516 in FY24 as consumers migrate toward lower-priced digital streaming platforms.

### Australia Out-of-Home Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-out-of-home-market-outlook-2020
- Published: 2020-12-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the Australian Out-of-Home (OOH) market, forecasting a recovery to $1,205 million by 2024 following an 18% decline in 2020 due to COVID-19. The analysis highlights the structural shift toward Digital OOH (DOOH), which is expected to represent 81.5% of total OOH revenue by 2024. Key growth drivers include programmatic advertising adoption, improved audience measurement through the MOVE platform, and the integration of location-based data to enhance campaign effectiveness and advertiser ROI.

### e-Pharma: the rise of online pharmacy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/e-pharma-rise-online-pharmacy-australia
- Published: 2020-11-01
- Author: Chris Blyth

This report analyses the Australian pharmacy market, forecasting total industry revenue to reach $22.2bn by 2025 with a 2.9% CAGR. It highlights the rapid shift toward digital channels, with online pharmaceutical spend expected to hit $3.0bn, or 14% of total expenditure, by 2025. Key drivers include regulatory changes such as electronic prescriptions, an ageing population, and the impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and fulfillment models.

### Industry Update: Draft Code of Practice for disinformation protects the platforms too
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/draft-code-disinformation-platform-protection
- Published: 2020-10-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the draft Code of Practice on Disinformation released by DIGI on 19 October 2020. It examines the regulatory shift from the ACCC’s mandatory advertising code to ACMA’s voluntary framework for misinformation. The report highlights how the Code's definitions and exemptions, particularly for 'partisan news and commentary', provide digital platforms with a structured defense against editorial liability while addressing the real-world harms of disinformation spread on social media.

### Australian Advertising Market Outlook 2020
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-advertising-market-outlook-2020
- Published: 2020-09-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian advertising market outlook from 2019 to 2024, forecasting a total market CAGR of 4.0%. While COVID-19 caused a 6.8% decline in FY20 AdEx, the market is expected to rebound in FY22. The analysis highlights the accelerating shift toward digital platforms, which are projected to capture 68.1% of total spend by FY24, largely driven by Google and Facebook's market dominance and the growth of mobile and video formats.

### FY20 FINAL RESULTS | 27 AUGUST, 2020
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nine-entertainment-fy20-final-results
- Published: 2020-08-27
- Author: Venture Insights

This report details Nine Entertainment's financial and operational performance for the 2020 fiscal year, highlighting a strategic shift toward digital platforms. Despite a 16% decline in like-basis EBITDA due to COVID-19 advertising market impacts, the group achieved a 38% growth in digital EBITDA, which now accounts for nearly half of total group earnings. The results underscore the resilience of the portfolio, supported by strong subscriber growth at Stan and a $225 million cash cost-out program implemented to mitigate market volatility.

### Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited Financial Report for the year ended 30 June 2020
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nine-entertainment-fy20-financial-results
- Published: 2020-08-27
- Author: Venture Insights

This report details Nine Entertainment Co.'s financial performance for FY20, a year marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and the integration of Fairfax Media. The Group reported a consolidated net loss after tax of $575 million, primarily driven by a $588.7 million impairment charge against intangible assets in the Nine Network, Domain, and Digital segments. Despite a 7% decline in revenue from continuing operations to $2,170.6 million, the Group saw strong growth in digital subscriptions and Stan revenues, which increased by 54% pcp.

### Foxtel SVOD growth can’t prevent major restructure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/foxtel-svod-growth-restructure-update
- Published: 2020-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Foxtel's FY20 results, highlighting a 16% decline in traditional pay TV subscriptions. While Kayo and Binge show encouraging early growth, they are insufficient to offset the revenue impact of losing high-ARPU residential and commercial customers. The analysis forecasts an inevitable restructuring of the business, including channel rationalisation and staff cuts, as Foxtel transitions from legacy broadcast models to a lower-ARPU streaming-led future amidst increasing SVOD competition and COVID-19 pressures.

### COVID-19 and consumer behaviour: implications for digital marketing and advertising
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/covid-19-consumer-behaviour-digital-marketing-implications
- Published: 2020-07-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Australian consumer behaviour and the subsequent implications for digital marketing and advertising strategies. Based on a webinar hosted by the IAB Australia and Venture Insights, it details a significant shift in device usage, with desktop time rising 22% while mobile fell 2%. Despite a heavy fall in ad expenditure in March, approximately 50% of advertisers who paused spend had returned by May, highlighting a partial market recovery.

### Mobile payments – Australia mobile payments steadily grow, as cash crashes
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-mobile-payments-growth-cash-decline
- Published: 2020-05-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the rapid shift in the Australian payments landscape from physical cash to mobile-app based solutions. Based on a survey of 1,016 consumers, it finds that 37% of Australians now use smartphones for weekly payments, while cash transactions have declined from 37% in 2016 to 27% in 2019. The analysis explores the competitive dynamics between incumbent bank apps and tech giants like Apple and Google, forecasting a transition to a walletless economy by 2025.

### Global advertising platforms playing a long game in retail, payments, and logistics
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/global-platforms-retail-payments-logistics
- Published: 2020-05-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the strategic expansion of Google, Facebook, and Amazon beyond digital advertising into retail, payments, and logistics. While Google and Facebook maintain a 60.7% share of US digital ad spending, Amazon's rapid growth is transforming the duopoly into a triopoly. The analysis explores how these platforms use AI and data to reduce friction in the buying process, and how ANZ media incumbents are responding through addressable media and shared adtech platforms to defend their domestic market positions.

### COVID-19 and media in New Zealand
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/covid-19-nz-media-disruption-analysis
- Published: 2020-04-07
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the New Zealand media landscape, focusing on the financial strain on free-to-air (FTA) and pay-TV broadcasters. It highlights the decline in revenue for major players like Sky TV and TVNZ, the risks associated with high-cost sports rights during event cancellations, and the temporary surge in SVOD viewership. The analysis further explores the disruption of local production cycles and the shifting competitive dynamics between traditional media and digital platforms like Netflix and Stan.

### COVID-19 impact on ANZ media: major structural and regulatory change now inevitable
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/covid19-impact-anz-media-structural-change
- Published: 2020-04-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the profound impact of COVID-19 on the Australian and New Zealand media landscapes, forecasting inevitable structural and regulatory changes. It highlights the 'perfect storm' facing specialised sports streaming platforms and the severe financial pressure on Free-To-Air (FTA) broadcasters due to the simultaneous loss of advertising revenue and live sports content. Conversely, SVOD platforms like Netflix and Stan are positioned as more robust, benefiting from deep content libraries and a lack of advertising exposure during the economic downturn.

### Nine 1H20 update – results in line with expectations
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nine-1h20-earnings-update-digital-pivot
- Published: 2020-03-04
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses Nine's 1HFY20 financial performance, highlighting a 2% YoY revenue decline to $1,182.5mn amidst a challenging Australian advertising market. While traditional Free-to-Air (FTA) and print segments face structural headwinds, Nine's digital pivot is accelerating, with pure digital revenues now accounting for 40% of Group EBITDA. The analysis forecasts continued pressure on linear formats through 2023, offset by strong growth in BVOD (9Now) and SVOD (Stan) platforms.

### Amazon Advertising: From Duopoly to Triopoly in advertising?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/amazon-advertising-duopoly-to-triopoly
- Published: 2020-03-01
- Author: Joanna Lin

This report analyzes the rapid expansion of Amazon's advertising business and its potential to disrupt the established Google and Facebook duopoly. With a forecast market share of 8.6% by 2020, Amazon is leveraging its rich consumer purchase data and high customer retention rates to convert searches into direct sales. The analysis explores Amazon's strategic entry into the Australian market, its acquisition of Sizmek's ad tech, and the increasing regulatory scrutiny from bodies like the ACCC as the market shifts toward a triopoly.

### Mobile payments – billion dollar opportunity in New Zealand to go walletless
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nz-mobile-payments-billion-dollar-opportunity
- Published: 2020-03-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the current state of mobile banking and payment app usage in New Zealand based on a February 2020 survey of 1,000 respondents. It identifies a NZ$1.36bn revenue opportunity in transaction commissions as the market shifts toward walletless solutions. While bank-led apps maintain a 59% market share, third-party providers like Apple Pay are gaining significant traction, particularly among younger and higher-income demographics, signaling a ripe environment for further industry disruption.

### Seven 1H20 update – revenues fall in a declining market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/seven-1h20-earnings-update-bvod-growth
- Published: 2020-02-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses Seven West Media's (SWM) 1HFY20 financial performance, highlighting a statutory loss of $67.0m and a 20.1% decline in operating EBITDA to $136.6m. Despite a challenging Australian advertising market that saw metro FTA decline by 7.0%, Seven increased its revenue share to 38.8%. The analysis focuses on SWM's strategic pivot toward BVOD, where consumption on 7plus grew by 42%, and the expansion of Seven Studios into global streaming commissions to offset linear revenue declines.

### Insurtech White Paper Part II: Australian Insurtech Market Overview
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-insurtech-market-overview-2020
- Published: 2020-01-01
- Author: Giorgio Kringas

This report analyzes the Australian insurtech market, forecasting a transition into a high-growth phase with revenues expected to reach $1.12 billion by 2024. It examines the shift from market disruption to collaboration with incumbents, the impact of the Royal Commission on industry premiums, and the emergence of six distinct technology clusters. The analysis highlights that while platforms currently dominate, technical enablers and segment disruptors are projected to achieve the highest growth rates through 2024.

### Can’t spell Media without AI – AI in Media and Video Consumption
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ai-media-video-consumption-australia
- Published: 2020-01-01
- Author: Bob Jin

This report analyses the impact of AI on the Australian video market, where overall revenues are stagnating at a -0.8% CAGR (2019A-2023F). While traditional pay TV and physical media decline, OTT operators are growing at 6.4% CAGR by leveraging AI for personalization, network optimization, and automated compliance. The research highlights how disruptors like Netflix and ByteDance have built AI into their core business models to influence viewer behavior and improve retention through marginal gains.

### Top 5 Media Trends in 2020
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/top-5-media-trends-2020
- Published: 2020-01-01
- Author: Bob Jin

This report identifies five defining trends for the Australian media industry in 2020, focusing on the maturation of the SVOD market, the rise of 'Total TV' through BVOD, and the monetization of ephemeral social media and podcasts. It forecasts a significant deceleration in SVOD revenue growth and highlights the impact of government regulation on global tech giants. The analysis provides strategic outlooks for incumbents and new entrants navigating a fragmented content landscape.

### Video Entertainment Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/video-entertainment-market-outlook-2020
- Published: 2020-01-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report forecasts the Australian video entertainment market to remain flat at approximately A$5.8bn through to 2023. While total market size is stable, a significant shift is occurring from traditional platforms to digital ones, driven by the entry of new SVOD players like Disney+ and Apple TV+. The analysis details the decline of Premium Pay-TV, Physical Media, and Cinema, which are being offset by a 12.3% CAGR in SVOD revenues and a 4% CAGR in TVOD/EST services.

### Australia Out-of-Home Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-ooh-market-outlook-2023
- Published: 2019-11-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the Australian Out-of-Home (OOH) advertising market, forecasting a 5.4% CAGR to reach A$1,144 million by 2023. The growth is primarily driven by Digital Out-of-Home (DOOH), which is expected to represent 76.5% of total OOH expenditure by 2023. The analysis covers the shift toward programmatic advertising, the integration of geospatial and behavioral data for audience targeting, and the emergence of new specialty players like Woolworths' Cartology and Telstra's IoT-powered transit displays.

### Programmatic OOH: Coming soon to a billboard near you?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/programmatic-ooh-australia-market-forecast
- Published: 2019-10-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the emergence of programmatic advertising within the Australian Out-of-Home (OOH) market, which is currently valued at $940 million. While programmatic spend in Australia has grown from $83.7 million in 2012 to $1.74 billion in 2019, its application to OOH remains in the early stages of digitisation. The brief explores how automation can improve media efficiency and audience targeting while addressing the risks of market fragmentation and the potential entry of global tech giants like Google into the physical advertising space.

### The pre-order market has taken off, is consolidation next?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-pre-order-food-market-consolidation
- Published: 2019-09-01
- Author: Adrian Richards

This report analyses the rapid growth and impending consolidation of the Australian pre-order food market, currently valued at approximately $3.4b. While current penetration remains low at 7%, the market is expected to reach 40-60% in the medium to long term. The analysis explores the shift from traditional store-based experiences to mobile app-based ordering, the rise of digital wallets, and the potential emergence of 'super apps' similar to those seen in China, while addressing key regulatory and environmental challenges.

### Stakeholder management – where to from here?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/stakeholder-management-shareholder-primacy-shift
- Published: 2019-09-01
- Author: Chris Blyth

This report analyses the shift in corporate governance following the Business Roundtable's 2019 revision of the 'Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation'. It explores the inherent flaws of shareholder primacy, such as short-termism and negative externalities, while highlighting the growth of responsible investment. With 55% of Australian professionally managed assets now classified as responsible investments, the brief argues that technology companies and boards must adopt inclusive models to ensure long-term viability in the Information Age.

### FTA earnings update – could digital save the TV star?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/fta-earnings-update-digital-bvod-growth
- Published: 2019-08-26
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the FY19 earnings of Seven West Media and Nine Entertainment, highlighting a critical transition period for the Australian free-to-air (FTA) market. While core linear advertising revenues face a structural decline of 3.9% CAGR through 2023, rapid growth in Broadcast Video on Demand (BVOD) and digital adjacencies offer a partial offset. The analysis evaluates how programmatic advertising, addressable TV, and strategic mergers are being deployed to counter audience fragmentation and the proliferation of OTT services.

### Australian Advertising Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-advertising-market-outlook-2019-2023
- Published: 2019-08-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report forecasts the Australian advertising market through 2023, projecting total expenditure to grow at a 3.2% CAGR to reach $18.7bn. While digital remains the primary growth engine, its expansion is expected to moderate from historical highs of 18.6% to a 7.5% CAGR. A critical shift is identified as approximately one-third of all Australian advertising revenue now flows offshore, with Google and Facebook capturing over 60% of the total digital ad spend.

### Ad blocking update - Publishers and tech giants work together to take on ad blockers
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ad-blocking-update-australia-2019
- Published: 2019-07-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the evolving dynamics of ad blocking in Australia, where consumer adoption rose from 24% in 2016 to 33% in 2018. It examines the strategic responses of digital publishers, including the adoption of tiered access and native advertising, alongside the defensive measures taken by tech giants like Google and Facebook. The analysis further explores the impact of regulatory oversight from the ACCC and the UK's ICO on the broader digital advertising ecosystem and user privacy standards.

### ACCC Digital Platforms Inquiry Final Report – much needed digital reforms have arrived
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/accc-digital-platforms-inquiry-final-report
- Published: 2019-07-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes the ACCC's final 600-page report on Digital Platforms, which introduces 23 key recommendations to address the market dominance of Google and Facebook. With these two entities capturing approximately 33% of total Australian advertising expenditure and over 60% of digital AdEx, the ACCC proposes a new regulatory framework. Key measures include the establishment of a Digital Platforms Branch, changes to merger laws, and mandatory codes of conduct to ensure transparency in ad tech and news referrals.

### Neobanks: rapid growth or a slow burn?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/neobanks-australia-revolut-growth-analysis
- Published: 2019-07-01
- Author: Giorgio Kringas

This report analyses the entry of Revolut into the Australian market and the broader competitive landscape for neobanks. While 63% of 18-44-year-olds are willing to consider digital-only banks, uptake is expected to be slow due to low industry churn, with 59% of consumers not switching banks in over a decade. The report evaluates the customer proposition of neobanks against incumbents like CBA and Westpac, highlighting that while neobanks offer superior digital features, they face significant trust barriers and aggressive responses from major banks.

### Facebook Libra – the cryptocurrency arms race has begun…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/facebook-libra-cryptocurrency-arms-race
- Published: 2019-06-01
- Author: Bob Jin

This report analyses the strategic implications of Facebook's Libra cryptocurrency and its potential to disrupt the global payments landscape. Backed by a consortium of 28 founding members, including Uber and Visa, Libra aims to provide a frictionless financial system for billions of users. The analysis explores the role of the Libra Reserve in maintaining value stability, the competitive threat to traditional banking institutions, and the significant regulatory hurdles regarding privacy and data security that Facebook must overcome to achieve widespread adoption.

### Foxtel and OTT – a tough balancing act…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/foxtel-ott-balancing-act-kayo-cannibalisation
- Published: 2019-06-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses Foxtel's strategic shift toward Over-the-Top (OTT) platforms like Kayo Sports in response to declining Pay-TV penetration and rising content costs. It evaluates the risk of cannibalisation, where up to 18% of existing subscribers may downgrade, potentially impacting annual revenue by $110 million to $325 million. The analysis further explores the impact of ending marquee content like Game of Thrones and increasing competition from telcos like Optus and Telstra in the sports streaming market.

### Australian Fintech Breakfast Roundtable: Fintech ready to disrupt the big banks
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-fintech-breakfast-roundtable-disruption
- Published: 2019-05-14
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the Australian fintech landscape following a roundtable discussion of consumer sentiment. While 75% of respondents believe the Big 4 banks have too much power and 51% do not trust the industry, incumbents remain protected by high customer stickiness, with 56% of users banking with only one institution. The findings highlight that while millennials are the primary target for disruption, fintech challengers must overcome significant trust deficits to achieve mass market adoption against established players and emerging tech giants like Apple.

### eSports and Broadcasters – to TV or not to TV…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/esports-broadcasters-traditional-tv-challenges
- Published: 2019-04-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report examines the rapid growth of the eSports market and the strategic challenges traditional broadcasters face in capturing this audience. While global revenues are projected to surpass US$1bn in 2019 with an audience of 450mn, the Australian market remains nascent at A$8mn. The analysis highlights five key hurdles for broadcasters, including format adaptation and competition from tech giants like Amazon and Google, who maintain a significant lead in digital-first engagement and infrastructure.

### Expectations versus reality in data-driven healthcare - how do we solve health data conundrum?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-healthcare-data-conundrum-analysis
- Published: 2019-04-01
- Author: Paul Simos

This report analyses the critical challenges facing the Australian healthcare sector, where spending has reached $180.7 billion, representing 10.3% of GDP. It examines the 'medical data conundrum' characterized by siloed, unstructured data that leads to significant administrative waste and unnecessary procedures. The analysis explores the role of emerging technologies like AI and genomics in driving productivity gains, the impact of the My Health Record initiative, and lessons from developing markets like Estonia and Nigeria in implementing large-scale digital health solutions.

### Mobile payments – New Zealand moving from cashless to walletless
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nz-mobile-payments-cashless-walletless
- Published: 2019-03-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the New Zealand payments ecosystem, which has seen considerable disruption over the last decade. With smartphone penetration estimated at 90% in 2018, consumers are increasingly looking to ditch physical cards in favour of digital wallets. The research highlights that while 50% of respondents have never used mobile payments, the industry represents a NZ$1.2bn annual revenue opportunity. Bank-led apps currently lead the market, though third-party solutions like Apple Pay are gaining significant traction among younger demographics.

### ACCC’s Digital Platforms Inquiry – more regulation on the horizon
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/accc-digital-platforms-inquiry-algorithm-regulation
- Published: 2019-03-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes the submissions from Google and Facebook regarding the ACCC’s Digital Platforms Inquiry, specifically focusing on the proposed establishment of an algorithm regulator. While the tech giants argue that such regulation is unnecessary and risks poor outcomes, the ACCC highlights significant market power, noting that 94% of all online searches in Australia occur through Google. The report examines industry reactions from media players like Nine Entertainment and the telco sector, outlining the potential for multi-billion dollar fines and global regulatory precedents.

### Sports SVOD – Can Foxtel deliver a KO?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/sports-svod-foxtel-kayo-analysis
- Published: 2019-03-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses Foxtel's strategic launch of Kayo Sports, a standalone sports streaming service, in response to the rising 'appification' of TV and increasing competition for sports rights. With Foxtel's ARPUs falling from $96 in 2014 to $80 in 2018, the company is shifting toward a volume-based SVOD model. The analysis explores the risks of cannibalising existing high-ARPU subscribers and the looming threat from global tech giants like Amazon and Facebook in the live sports landscape.

### REA Group 1HFY19 update: growth in a challenging environment
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/rea-group-1hfy19-earnings-analysis
- Published: 2019-02-08
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses REA Group's 1HFY19 financial performance, highlighting a 15% increase in group revenue to A$469.2mn and a 19% rise in operating EBITDA to A$289.1mn. While the core Australian residential business remains strong with 16% revenue growth, the overall results were significantly impacted by a non-cash impairment charge of A$173.2mn related to the Asia business (iProperty). The analysis forecasts a muted outlook for 2HFY19 and FY20 due to declining house prices and listing volumes in the Australian market.

### Domain 1HFY19 update: pricing power and depth penetration save the day…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/domain-1hfy19-earnings-update-analysis
- Published: 2019-02-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses Domain's 1HFY19 financial performance, highlighting a flat year-on-year revenue of $183.9 million. While the core residential business saw an 8.6% revenue increase driven by premium ad products, overall earnings were pressured by a 24% decline in print revenue and a tough macro environment. The analysis compares Domain's performance against REA Group and forecasts continued pressure through FY20 due to cyclical headwinds and regulatory impacts on mortgage brokers.

### ACCC Digital Platforms Inquiry – Google and Facebook have just been put on notice
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/accc-digital-platforms-inquiry-google-facebook
- Published: 2018-12-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes the ACCC’s preliminary findings from its Digital Platforms Inquiry, which identifies significant market concentration where Google accounts for 94% of online searches in Australia. The inquiry proposes extensive regulatory oversight for any business generating over $100mn per annum from digital advertising. It highlights the symbiotic but lop-sided relationship between digital platforms and news media, noting a 9% decline in journalism employment from 2006-2016. The report outlines 11 preliminary recommendations and 9 areas for further assessment to address transparency and data protection.

### UBS Conference: What could the media landscape look like in 5 years?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ubs-conference-media-landscape-5-year-outlook
- Published: 2018-11-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes key takeaways from the 2018 UBS Investors Conference media panel, focusing on the five-year outlook for the Australian media landscape. While digital remains the primary growth engine, traditional operators are aligning offerings with customer preferences through BVOD and addressable TV. The market faces headwinds from falling house prices and banking sector shifts, yet digital ad spend is forecast to grow from 49% to approximately 66% of the total market by 2022, driven by mobile and online video.

### Telemedicine and AI Outlook in Primary Care
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/telemedicine-ai-outlook-primary-care-australia
- Published: 2018-11-01
- Author: Nijat Hajiyev

This report forecasts the adoption of telemedicine and AI in the Australian primary health market, projecting total expenditure on unreferred medical services to rise to $20bn by 2035. It analyzes the shift from traditional face-to-face consultations to digital platforms, driven by consumer demand for lower costs and flexible access. The analysis details how telemedicine and AI will reach 50% of total expenditure by 2029, eventually lowering overall healthcare costs through preventative health and early illness detection.

### Telemedicine and AI Outlook in Primary Care
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/telemedicine-ai-outlook-primary-care-2035
- Published: 2018-11-01
- Author: Nijat Hajiyev

This report forecasts that expenditure on telemedicine and AI will reach $7.8bn and $4.7bn respectively by 2035, representing a combined 63% of total spending on unreferred medical services in Australian primary health. While traditional face-to-face consultations currently dominate the market, digital adoption is expected to reach a 50% expenditure tipping point by 2029. The analysis explores how lower costs, improved accessibility, and government incentives will drive consumer adoption, ultimately reducing referred medical specialist costs by at least 30%.

### Neobanks - The David against banking Goliaths?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/neobanks-david-vs-goliath-banking
- Published: 2018-10-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the emergence of neobanks in the Australian and European markets, highlighting their role as digital-first disruptors to traditional banking Goliaths. With the UK neobank market share reaching 3% and over 100 players globally, the sector is leveraging superior customer experience and lower operating costs to target millennials. The analysis explores the competitive landscape, regulatory hurdles such as the $50m capital threshold for ADIs, and the looming threat of tech giants like Amazon and Alibaba entering the financial services ecosystem.

### When an Amazon TV show wins a Golden Globe, Amazon sells more shoes
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/amazon-video-strategy-prime-flywheel
- Published: 2018-09-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses Amazon's video strategy as a key pillar for driving Prime memberships and increasing retail spend. It highlights how Amazon monetises content unconventionally, with Prime members spending 4x-5x more than non-prime members. The analysis covers the four pillars of Amazon's video offering—devices, channels, original content, and sports—and examines the platform's growth in the Australian market, where subscribers grew nearly 2x over 2017-18.

### The 3Ps: Protection, Productivity & Pleasure for Australian smart home early adopters
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-smart-home-early-adopters-3ps
- Published: 2018-09-01
- Author: Yolande Strengers

This report analyzes the lived experiences of 31 Australian households that have adopted smart home technologies. Based on an academic-industry partnership with Intel Corporation, the research explores three central concepts: protection, productivity, and pleasure (the 3Ps). Findings indicate that while 'protection' is rarely used as a term, it is the primary driver through security and care for family members. The study highlights gendered divisions in 'digital housekeeping' and the potential for smart home features to undermine energy efficiency goals.

### Australian Insurance lagging behind in the Insurtech space
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-insurance-lagging-insurtech-investment
- Published: 2018-07-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report explores the investments that large Australian general insurance businesses have made in the digital and insurtech market. It considers their contrasting approaches to those investments, highlighting that local players have been significantly slower than global counterparts. While the three largest ANZ groups have collectively invested $A29mn since 2015, global parent Allianz SE alone has invested over $A350mn, establishing a clear gap in digital transformation strategies between local and international insurance providers.

### AltFi Conference 2018 – Growth with transparency
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/altfi-conference-2018-fintech-growth
- Published: 2018-04-01
- Author: Chris Paterson

This report analyses the 2018 AltFi Australasian Conference, highlighting the rapid growth of the Australian fintech industry and the impending impact of Open Banking and Comprehensive Credit Reporting (CCR). While the online SME lending market is projected to reach $2bn by 2021, a significant awareness gap remains, with only 30% of Australian SMEs aware of online loan options compared to 70% in the US. The analysis explores consumer demographics, regulatory shifts, and the competitive threat posed by global tech giants like Amazon.

### Facebook’s data breach – an inflection point for internet privacy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/facebook-cambridge-analytica-privacy-inflection-point
- Published: 2018-04-01
- Author: Chris Paterson

This report analyzes the fallout from the Cambridge Analytica data breach, which impacted up to 87 million Facebook users, including 300,000 in Australia. It examines Facebook's three-step response plan, the intensifying scrutiny from global regulators like the US FTC and Australian ACCC, and the long-term implications for the $200 billion global digital advertising market. The analysis suggests that while targeted advertising remains a backbone of the industry, the implementation of GDPR and similar frameworks will fundamentally shift control back to the consumer.

### Hey Siri – What is the potential of Digital Voice Assistants in Media?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/potential-digital-voice-assistants-media
- Published: 2018-04-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the emergence of Digital Voice Assistants (DVAs) as a major interaction platform within the digital ecosystem. It explores the shift toward 'Zero UI' and ambient computing, highlighting how media businesses must adapt to changing content consumption habits. With 71% of smart speaker owners listening to more audio since purchase, the report identifies strategic opportunities in podcasts, interactive content, and voice-based advertising models to mitigate the risk of losing direct audience relationships to platform providers.

### Importance of News Content
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/importance-of-news-content-australia
- Published: 2018-03-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the structural shifts in the Australian news industry, highlighting the decline of traditional revenue streams and the rise of digital platforms. It examines consumer preferences, noting that 71% of adults prefer text-based news over video, despite significant investment in digital video by broadcasters. The analysis explores the impact of 'fake news' on trust, the challenges of paywall adoption with only 13% of Australians paying for online news, and the strategic opportunities in voice assistants and content personalisation.

### Ad blocking – Google and publishers strike back…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ad-blocking-google-publishers-australia
- Published: 2018-03-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes the state of ad blocking in Australia and the strategic implications of Google's entry into the ad-filtering space. With approximately 26% of Australian internet users utilizing ad blockers as of December 2017, the A$7.9bn digital advertising market faces significant disruption. The analysis explores how Google's Chrome browser, which holds over 50% market share, will enforce standards set by the Coalition for Better Ads to potentially make aggressive third-party blockers redundant and protect publisher revenues.

### OK Google: The rise of Voice Assistants in Australia
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/rise-of-voice-assistants-australia
- Published: 2018-03-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the rapid growth of digital voice assistants (DVAs) in Australia, forecasting a transition from aspirational products to mainstream computing platforms. With Google reporting that 20% of mobile queries are now voice-based, the market is shifting toward a conversational paradigm. The analysis explores the competitive landscape between Google, Amazon, and Apple, highlighting that while Amazon leads globally with a 71% share, Google's aggressive local pricing and ecosystem integration position it for leadership in the Australian domestic market.

### Flash Report on Online Retail in Australia
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-online-retail-flash-report-2018
- Published: 2018-02-01
- Author: Hamish Cruden

This report analyses the A$24.2bn Australian online retail sector, which has expanded at a CAGR of 13.3% over the last five years. It examines the drivers behind the shift from brick-and-mortar to digital channels, including 88% internet penetration and the proliferation of handheld devices. The analysis covers the impact of global entrants like Amazon on local chains such as JB Hi-Fi and Myer, while highlighting the rise of omni-channel strategies and cash-back reward platforms in the domestic market.

### Media Sector Update: Australian Media Reform Implications
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-media-reform-consolidation-implications
- Published: 2018-02-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the implications of the September 2017 Australian media reforms, forecasting a five-year period of industry consolidation. It examines how the removal of ownership restrictions allows legacy broadcasters to pursue scale and digital adjacencies to counter revenue erosion from global tech giants. The analysis highlights seven key impacts, including the creation of genuine omni-channel players and the rebalancing of sports rights, while emphasizing that consolidation must be paired with robust strategic planning to ensure long-term viability.

### Top Australian Healthcare Tech trends to watch in 2018
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-healthcare-tech-trends-2018
- Published: 2018-01-25
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the five key technology trends set to disrupt the Australian healthcare sector in 2018. It highlights the shift from passive care to real-time, outcome-based provision driven by Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, and the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT). With the global IoMT market forecast to reach US$72bn by 2021 at a CAGR of 26.2%, Australian providers are increasingly adopting smart hospital solutions and robotics to improve patient care and operational efficiency.

### Amazon Advertising: Sleeping Giant
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/amazon-advertising-sleeping-giant-analysis
- Published: 2018-01-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the rapid expansion of Amazon's advertising business, which generated US$1.12 billion in 2017. While currently accounting for only 2% of Amazon's total revenue, the segment's year-on-year growth has exceeded 45% for two consecutive years. The analysis explores how Amazon's unique access to explicit purchase data positions it as a formidable competitor to Google and Facebook, particularly as it scales its presence in the Australian media market and expands into new formats like voice and TV.

### Site Blocking and Digital Piracy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/site-blocking-digital-piracy-australia
- Published: 2017-12-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report examines the evolving landscape of digital piracy in Australia, highlighting a decline in illegal downloading from 43% in 2015 to 38% of content consumers in 2017. It analyzes the effectiveness of site blocking, which has shown up to a 22% decrease in piracy for affected users, alongside the 'Netflix effect' where paying customers for online movies rose to 65%. The brief also addresses emerging threats like 'fully loaded' Kodi boxes and the role of education and cyber risk awareness in curbing infringement.

### Classifieds Marketing Outlook: All Segments
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/classifieds-marketing-outlook-all-segments-2017
- Published: 2017-11-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the Australian online classifieds market, forecasting a CAGR of 10.5% to reach $1.9 billion by 2021. While the transition from print to digital is largely complete, the market is entering a mature phase characterized by slowing growth and disruption from new technology-driven entrants. The analysis covers key verticals including Property, Recruitment, and Automotive, highlighting how incumbents like REA Group, SEEK, and carsales are expanding into international markets and financial services adjacencies to maintain revenue momentum.

### Automotive Marketing Outlook: 2017
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/automotive-marketing-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-11-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyzes the Australian automotive marketing landscape, focusing on the transition from print to digital classifieds and display advertising. It highlights carsales.com as the dominant market leader with a 50% revenue share, while identifying emerging competitive threats from Gumtree and digital-first dealerships like HelloCars and Carzoos. The analysis forecasts a slowdown in classifieds growth to a 5.9% CAGR through 2021 as the market reaches maturity, contrasted by a 15% CAGR in digital display expenditure.

### Google: A Trojan Horse for the TV industry?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/google-trojan-horse-tv-industry
- Published: 2017-11-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report examines Google's strategic pivot into the television industry, moving beyond its online video dominance via YouTube. While previous hardware efforts like Chromecast had mixed results, Google is now targeting the multi-billion dollar TV advertising market by providing the underlying infrastructure for broadcasters like CBS. The analysis explores how Google's data troves and growing original content budget, now in the hundreds of millions, threaten traditional media players and create a 'Trojan Horse' scenario for the TV value chain.

### Supply of news in the UK
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/uk-news-supply-digital-transformation
- Published: 2017-10-10
- Author: Alice Enders

This report analyses the supply of news in the UK from 2003 to 2017, focusing on original news production across broadcast, newspaper, and internet platforms. It details how digital tools and social media, particularly Twitter and Facebook, have transformed journalism workflows. While the number of national outlets remains stable, the industry faces significant economic pressure, evidenced by a decline in PSB news expenditure and a continuous drop in physical newspaper circulation volumes.

### Recruitment Marketing Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/recruitment-marketing-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-10-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the Australian recruitment marketing landscape, highlighting the near-total migration from print to online platforms. With online advertising now accounting for 98% of total job advertisements, the market is entering a phase of technology-led disruption. The analysis evaluates the dominance of Seek, the growing influence of LinkedIn, and the entry of global giants like Google and Facebook into the local recruitment ecosystem, forecasting a shift toward niche talent communities and AI-driven search tools.

### Game of Genomes – decoding the future of healthcare
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/decoding-future-healthcare-genomics-trends
- Published: 2017-10-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the rapid evolution of the genomics sector, driven by a dramatic decline in sequencing costs and the rise of big data analytics. It forecasts the global genomics market will expand at a CAGR of 15.1% to reach US$19.9bn by 2020. The analysis explores the convergence of biology and computer science, the emergence of direct-to-consumer testing models like 23andMe, and the strategic initiatives in the US and China that are currently leading the global genomics race.

### Voice Assistants: Better together?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/voice-assistants-better-together-alexa-cortana
- Published: 2017-10-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the strategic rationale behind the Microsoft-Amazon partnership to integrate Cortana and Alexa. While Siri remains the most popular virtual assistant with 41.4 million monthly active users, the market is shifting toward smart speakers where Amazon's Echo leads with over 20,000 available skills as of September 2017. The collaboration seeks to leverage Microsoft's 400 million Windows 10 devices and Amazon's retail dominance to create a competitive ecosystem against Google and Apple's integrated mobile platforms.

### National Digital Health Strategy – one byte at a time
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/national-digital-health-strategy-australia
- Published: 2017-09-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the Australian National Digital Health Strategy (NDHS) and the role of the Australian Digital Health Agency (ADHA) in transforming a fragmented healthcare system. With A$161bn spent on healthcare in 2016, the strategy aims to move beyond paper-based records to a digital ecosystem. It evaluates the progress of 'My Health Record', which reached 5.1 million registrations by August 2017, and outlines seven key strategic priorities to be achieved by 2022 to improve clinical outcomes and system efficiency.

### The Gatekeepers of Travel: Google and Facebook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/gatekeepers-travel-google-facebook-dominance
- Published: 2017-09-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyses the expanding dominance of Google and Facebook as 'Gatekeepers' within the global travel industry. It examines how these platforms leverage massive user data and integrated services like Google Flights and Facebook City Guides to control consumer interaction with travel content. With Google generating US$12.2 billion from travel advertising in 2016—surpassing the total revenue of major OTAs—the report forecasts a shift where traditional online travel agencies face increased margin pressure and decreased market competition.

### Property Advertising Market Outlook: Technology as a disrupting and differentiating factor
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/property-advertising-market-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-09-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the Australian property advertising market, focusing on the transition from print to online platforms and the impact of technological disruptors. It examines the dominance of REA Group and Domain, who collectively hold 98% of the online classified market. The analysis covers macroeconomic drivers, including GDP growth and interest rates, alongside the rise of fixed-fee service models like Purple Bricks and buyMyplace which are challenging traditional high-street real estate agency structures.

### The growth of Insurtech – Insurance companies should be worried
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/growth-of-insurtech-australia-insurance-disruption
- Published: 2017-09-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the rapid growth of the Insurtech sector and its implications for the A$100 billion Australian insurance market. It identifies five key drivers of technological disruption, including the industry's multi-layered structure and the data-driven nature of pricing risk. The brief examines the rise of 'Neo-insurers' and product innovators utilizing IoT, Big Data, and AI to improve service levels and operational efficiency. It concludes that traditional players must innovate aggressively or risk losing significant market share to agile, customer-centric challengers.

### Disruption in Aged Care – Rise of the Silver Surfer
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/disruption-aged-care-silver-surfer
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the rapid transformation of Australia's A$21.4bn aged care sector, driven by a 'silver tsunami' where the population aged 65+ is forecast to reach 8.1m by 2050. It examines how core technology drivers, including biosensors, robotics, and IoT, are lowering barriers to entry and enabling 'Uber-like' on-demand platforms. The analysis highlights the shift toward Consumer Directed Care (CDC) and the resulting disintermediation of traditional, capital-intensive incumbents by agile, tech-enabled challengers.

### Digital transformation of the sports economy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/digital-transformation-sports-economy-rights-disruption
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Matthew Jay

This report analyses the digital revolution within the sports industry, where technology is transforming spectators into pseudo-participants. It examines the disruption of traditional media partners as broadcasters struggle to afford massive rights deals, leading to the emergence of 'over the top' (OTT) distribution and eSports. With 11.2 million Australians accessing online sports content in March 2017, the report forecasts a shift where digital advertising will exceed 50% of total spend by 2018, forcing a readdressing of the sports rights business model.

### Australian airline loyalty programs - reaching new heights
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-airline-loyalty-programs-saturation
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Aaron Chan

This report analyses the evolving Australian airline loyalty landscape, focusing on Qantas Frequent Flyer (QFF) and Virgin Velocity. With the market approaching a saturation point of one membership per adult over 15, growth is decelerating. The analysis explores how intensifying competition, regulatory changes to credit card interchange fees, and technological disruptors like blockchain and big data analytics are reshaping the industry. It evaluates strategic options for incumbents, including program monetization through partial sales and enhancing value propositions to drive average revenue per member.

### Follow the money
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-vc-market-fy17-investment-trends
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Ravi Kaushal

This report analyzes the Australian Venture Capital market performance for FY17, highlighting a significant increase in investment activity totaling over US$670m. It examines deal flow across various stages, with a particular focus on the dominance of the IT sector and the emerging growth of Healthcare start-ups. The analysis provides a detailed breakdown of investments by sector, sub-sector, and geography, identifying the most active investors and the key companies attracting capital in the current favorable economic environment.

### Lending Disruption - Fact or fiction?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-lending-disruption-fintech-analysis
- Published: 2017-07-01
- Author: Adrian Bunter

This report analyses the Australian lending market, which is currently ripe for disruption due to a highly profitable oligopoly created by the 'four pillars' policy. With over $2.6 trillion in outstanding business and consumer loans, new fintech entrants are rapidly gaining traction, with gross written loan volumes already exceeding A$1B. The analysis explores the competitive landscape, the sustainability of technology-based cost advantages, and the likelihood of incumbents acquiring successful challengers before facing their own 'Kodak moment'.

### Facebook's charm offensive is over - at least as we know it.
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/facebook-charm-offensive-over-australia
- Published: 2017-07-01
- Author: Nicola Driver

This report analyzes the declining allure of Facebook among Australian users and media companies. It highlights a significant 50.7% year-on-year decline in time spent on the platform by the 25-34 demographic and explores the commercial implications of ad load saturation in mature markets. The analysis further examines the tension between Facebook and news publishers, the impact of fake news on platform credibility, and Facebook's strategic pivot toward video, AR, and VR to secure future advertising revenue.

### Disruption in Electricity – an electrifying start to a sunny future
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-electricity-disruption-renewables-market
- Published: 2017-07-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the drivers of disruption in the Australian electricity industry, estimated to be worth A$49.3bn with consumption of ~742 PJ per annum. It identifies key factors including declining costs of renewable technology, empowered consumers, and the unbundling of traditional value chains. The analysis concludes that the market is fast approaching a period of massive change, creating significant opportunities for agile new entrants while presenting existential threats to traditional fossil-fuel based incumbents.

### Mary Meeker Internet Trends 2017
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/mary-meeker-internet-trends-2017-analysis
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyzes the 2017 Mary Meeker Internet Trends, highlighting the global shift toward mobile-centric digital markets. Global internet users grew at a flat rate of 10% YoY, with mobile devices now accounting for 3.1 hours of daily usage for the average American. The analysis explores the disconnect between time spent on mobile and advertising expenditure, identifying a US$16 billion gap in the US and a similar trend in Australia where mobile receives 44% of time spent but only 9% of ad spend.

### Australian Advertising Expenditure Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-advertising-expenditure-market-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report forecasts the Australian advertising expenditure market through 2021, highlighting a total market growth to $17.6bn at a 2.8% CAGR. Digital advertising is the primary growth engine, expected to dominate 67.7% of the market by 2021, up from 48.3% in 2016. The analysis details the 'tipping point' for terrestrial TV, the rapid rise of digital video and mobile formats, and the ongoing structural declines in print and radio as audiences migrate to online and streamed content.

### Artificial Intelligence – The next disruptive revolution
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ai-next-disruptive-revolution-market-forecast
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses the transformative impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on global industries, forecasting the market to reach up to US$47 billion by 2020. It details the building blocks of AI, including machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing, while examining how these technologies overhaul traditional value chains and business models. The analysis highlights significant disruption in sectors like Fintech and Healthcare, where AI-driven automation is projected to boost labour productivity by 40% in developed countries by 2035.

### ComCom says no to Fairfax/NZME merger – A short sighted decision?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nzcc-rejects-fairfax-nzme-merger
- Published: 2017-05-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyzes the New Zealand Commerce Commission's (NZCC) decision to reject the proposed merger between NZME and Fairfax Media. Despite the potential for $40 million to $200 million in cost savings over five years, the regulator cited concerns over a 90% print market share and a loss of media plurality. Venture Insights argues the decision is short-sighted, failing to account for the dominant role of global digital platforms like Google and Facebook in the advertising market.

### Disruption in Travel: The next step in customer experience
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/disruption-travel-customer-experience-australia
- Published: 2017-05-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyzes the significant disruption within the Australian travel market, driven by the rise of price comparison websites, the sharing economy, and low-cost carriers. International arrivals grew by 11% YoY in 2016, outpacing global trends, while domestic travel spend reached A$61bn. The analysis explores how technology, including big data, geo-fencing, and virtual reality, is removing barriers to travel and forcing traditional providers to innovate through hyper-personalization and 'micro-moment' targeting to maintain market share.

### Time to throw out your wallet?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-cashless-society-transition-2030
- Published: 2017-05-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses the transition of the Australian economy toward a cashless state, noting that only around one third of payments in 2016 were made in cash. While the usage of cash is declining, significant barriers including social trust, cybersecurity risks, and merchant fees remain. Venture Insights projects that cashless payments will reach 80% by 2030, though a total phase-out of physical currency is unlikely within the next two decades due to its role as a secondary payment method.

### A$1bn at stake for fund managers from Robo-Advice disruption
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/robo-advice-disruption-australian-fund-managers
- Published: 2017-05-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the impact of robo-advice on the Australian wealth management industry, forecasting a transition of A$145-190bn in assets to low-cost digital offerings over the next five years. While the market is currently in the 'Innovator' stage of adoption, traditional fund managers are positioned to capture significant share by leveraging existing trust. However, the shift to lower fee structures poses a direct threat to incumbent revenues, with up to A$1bn at stake annually for active managers.

### The Future of Audio and Radio
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/future-of-audio-and-radio-convergence
- Published: 2017-04-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the convergence of audio media in Australia, focusing on the shifting dynamics between traditional radio, music streaming, and podcasting. While radio remains the dominant medium, accounting for 66% of weekly listening, music streaming is rapidly maturing with revenues already at 60% of radio's licensing income. The analysis explores how incumbents like SCA and Nova are partnering with global platforms to maintain relevance in an increasingly non-linear, on-demand market driven by younger demographics.

### Virtual worlds become a reality
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/virtual-worlds-become-reality-ar-vr-forecast
- Published: 2017-04-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the emerging landscape of virtual and augmented reality, triggered by Facebook’s $2bn acquisition of Oculus. It evaluates the current market leaders, including Sony, HTC, and Microsoft, while detailing the technical shift from 3 to 6 degrees of freedom. The analysis forecasts a 5-10 year horizon for mass-market adoption, driven by distributed cloud computing and the convergence of AR/VR hardware, with the VR market expected to eventually challenge the $430Bn smartphone sector.

### Disruption in Tertiary Education – Harvard in the clouds
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/disruption-tertiary-education-australia-moocs
- Published: 2017-04-01
- Author: Dhanu Narenthiran

This report analyses the significant disruption occurring within the Australian higher education sector, an industry that generated A$34B in FY14. It examines how technological advancements, increasing device penetration, and the democratisation of information are driving the rise of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The analysis explores two potential future scenarios: one where traditional universities maintain control by integrating digital methodologies, and another where employer-backed MOOC providers disrupt the long-standing dominance of established institutions through targeted, job-specific skills training.

### SXSW Conference: Deep Machine Learning takes centre stage
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/sxsw-2017-deep-machine-learning-trends
- Published: 2017-03-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyses the 2017 South by South West (SXSW) conference, identifying Deep Machine Learning as the standout emerging trend. Awarded the Breakout Trend Award, this technology is moving beyond standard computer understanding to allow systems to be trained for complex tasks like autonomous driving. The report details significant developments across Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, and Wearables, highlighting how AI integration is shifting focus toward enhanced user experience and social interaction in the emerging Internet of Things landscape.

### Apple TV: Is video streaming taking the lead in TV consumption?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/apple-tv-video-streaming-market-analysis
- Published: 2017-02-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyses the global and Australian media streaming device market, highlighting the shift from traditional broadcast to on-demand consumption. While Apple TV saw 100% growth from 2014 to 2015, it now faces stiff competition from Roku (30% market share) and Google Chromecast (22%). The report forecasts a 10% CAGR for streaming devices through 2021, reaching 382 million units globally, as consumers increasingly prioritise content over specific platforms or networks.

### Digital Advertising Trends Part 1: Programmatic Advertising
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/digital-advertising-trends-programmatic-australia
- Published: 2017-02-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the rapid growth of programmatic advertising in Australia, which is considered one of the top five global markets. It forecasts that programmatic digital display advertising will surpass $1.5 billion and account for 58% of online display advertising in 2017. The analysis explores the shift toward mobile and video, the mechanics of open versus private marketplaces, and critical industry issues including brand safety, ad fraud, and viewability benchmarks.

### Amazon ready for global Prime time
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/amazon-prime-video-global-launch-analysis
- Published: 2016-12-01
- Author: Phil Codrington

This report analyses Amazon's global launch of its Prime Video service in over 200 countries, including Australia and New Zealand. It examines the strategic shift from a bundled loyalty benefit to a standalone SVOD product designed to compete directly with Netflix. The analysis covers content library limitations, the impact on local players like Stan and Lightbox, and the long-term implications of Amazon's integrated retail and media strategy in the Australian market.

### PRIMARY HEALTH CARE OUTLOOK
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/primary-health-care-outlook-disruption
- Published: 2016-11-01
- Author: Chris Blyth

This report analyses the Australian primary healthcare market, which accounted for $54.7bn of the $154.6bn total health expenditure in 2014. It forecasts a 3.3% CAGR for primary health spend through 2025-26, reaching $80.4bn in a base case scenario. The analysis explores how disruptive technologies, including artificial intelligence, big data, and 3D printing, are poised to overhaul traditional service delivery models to address the rising costs associated with an ageing population and chronic disease prevalence.

### The future of free-to-air television Part 2: Profiting from New Frontiers
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/future-fta-tv-profiting-new-frontiers
- Published: 2016-11-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the structural shift in the Australian media landscape as free-to-air (FTA) television transitions from a dominant linear model to a fragmented digital environment. It identifies five key video trends, nine strategic opportunities, and six digital success strategies for broadcasters. With peak night audiences down 9.15% in 2015, the analysis emphasizes that revenue will inevitably follow the shift toward on-demand consumption, requiring a total reimagining of traditional broadcast business models and measurement metrics.

### Airbnb – not just a sharing economy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/airbnb-australia-accommodation-market-disruption
- Published: 2016-11-01
- Author: Chris Blyth

This report analyses Airbnb's profound impact on the Australian accommodation market, where it has emerged as the largest provider. Since opening its Sydney office in 2012, Airbnb listings in four major cities have grown at a compound rate of 138%, totalling over 44,000 listings. The analysis explores how Airbnb is embedding itself into the travel ecosystem through deals like the Qantas loyalty program and examines the regulatory challenges posed by its disruptive business model.

### New Zealand Advertising Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nz-advertising-market-outlook-digital-leading
- Published: 2016-10-01
- Author: Diane Montupet

This report analyzes the New Zealand advertising expenditure (AdEx) market, forecasting a 1.9% CAGR to reach $2.7bn by CY21. The market is undergoing a structural shift as digital advertising, which represented 33% of the market in CY15, is projected to skyrocket to 53% by CY21. While terrestrial TV remains popular, its share is declining, and traditional print is facing a steep contraction. The analysis covers yield performance, broadband rollout impacts, and segment-specific forecasts for TV, Radio, Print, and Outdoor.

### MAD Tech: Is the future better together?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/mad-tech-martech-adtech-convergence
- Published: 2016-09-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the accelerating convergence of marketing technology (mar-tech) and advertising technology (ad-tech) into a hybrid 'MAD Tech' vertical. It identifies key drivers including investor preference for recurring subscription models, marketer demands for transparency, and the necessity of data integration to combat ad-blocking growth. With Google and Facebook dominating 85-90% of US digital ad spend, the report explores how Australian telcos and tech players are positioning themselves to provide integrated, end-to-end marketing solutions.

### Tug of War: Apple Pay versus The Big Australian Banks
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/apple-pay-vs-australian-banks-accc
- Published: 2016-09-01
- Author: Chris Blyth

This report analyses the competitive standoff between Apple and Australia's major banks following the November 2015 launch of Apple Pay. With $2.5b in annual interchange fees at stake, three of the top four banks have applied to the ACCC for permission to collectively boycott and negotiate with Apple to gain access to the iPhone's NFC chip. The analysis explores the implications for consumer choice, innovation, and the potential for Apple to bypass traditional banking structures entirely.

### NAB ONLINE RETAIL SALES INDEX IN-DEPTH REPORT – JUNE 2016
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nab-online-retail-sales-index-june-2016
- Published: 2016-08-03
- Author: Alan Oster

This report analyses the Australian online retail market, which reached an estimated value of $20.1 billion in the 12 months to June 2016. It highlights a significant divergence between domestic and international performance, with domestic online sales growing at 16.9% year-on-year compared to just 0.9% for international retailers. The analysis covers category performance, age group demographics, and regional spending trends, noting that online sales now represent approximately 6.8% of the traditional bricks-and-mortar retail sector.

### Olympics – a winner for broadcasting?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/olympics-winner-for-broadcasting-rio-2016
- Published: 2016-08-01
- Author: Michael Li

This report analyses the shifting consumption patterns of the Olympic Games, focusing on the Rio 2016 event. It evaluates the decline in traditional broadcast television ratings against the rise of digital streaming and alternative entertainment formats like e-sports. The analysis suggests that while digital engagement is growing, it has not yet reached the scale necessary to compensate for the loss of linear audiences, potentially diminishing the direct financial return on investment for major broadcasters like Seven West Media.

### Automotive Marketing Outlook: carsales.com the undisputed auto classified champion
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/automotive-marketing-outlook-carsales-champion
- Published: 2016-08-01
- Author: Chris Blyth

This report analyses the Australian automotive marketing landscape, forecasting a transition where online channels represent 91% of total classified spend by 2016. While new car sales reached a record 1.2 million registrations in 2015, the used car market remains the primary volume driver, expected to expand at a 5.2% CAGR to 4.8 million units by 2019. The analysis evaluates the competitive positioning of carsales.com against emerging threats like Gumtree, alongside the impact of local manufacturing cessation on the broader dealer ecosystem.

### Classifieds Marketing Outlook: All Segments
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/classifieds-marketing-outlook-all-segments-2016
- Published: 2016-08-01
- Author: Chris Blyth

This report analyses the Australian classifieds market, forecasting an 8.4% CAGR for online segments to reach $1.9 billion by 2021. With online now representing 92% of total classified spend, the structural shift from print is largely complete. Leading players like REA Group, SEEK, and carsales are pivoting toward international markets and adjacent services such as finance and education to sustain double-digit growth. The analysis highlights property as the dominant vertical, expected to outpace recruitment and automotive with a 9.6% CAGR.

### Verizon Yahoo buy could create a ‘third force’
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/verizon-yahoo-acquisition-digital-advertising-third-force
- Published: 2016-07-25
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyzes Verizon Communications’ $US4.83 billion acquisition of Yahoo and its strategic implications for the Australian media landscape. The deal aims to combine Yahoo with AOL to create a data-driven global platform capable of challenging the digital advertising dominance of Facebook and Google. In Australia, the transaction provides Seven West Media with a strategic window to potentially buy out the Yahoo7 joint venture or pursue independent digital growth strategies as the market seeks alternatives to the US tech duopoly.

### Disruption In: Hospitality
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/disruption-in-hospitality-cloud-pos
- Published: 2016-07-22
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the four key disruptive trends shaping the Australian hospitality industry: cloud-based Point of Sale (POS) solutions, service provider integration, Big Data utilization, and the transition to cashless payments. With over 71,008 venues and a turnover of A$56.5bn, the sector is undergoing a rapid digital transformation. The brief forecasts that 85% of venues will utilize POS systems by FY21, driven by a 5% CAGR in technology adoption and the entry of innovative cloud-based competitors.

### Pokémon Go is a game changer
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/pokemon-go-augmented-reality-game-changer
- Published: 2016-07-01
- Author: Shayum Rahim

This report analyzes the unprecedented success of Pokémon Go following its July 2016 release, where it became the biggest app in mobile gaming history by daily active users. It examines the game's impact on the augmented reality (AR) sector, its record-breaking engagement metrics compared to social media giants like WhatsApp and Instagram, and the emerging commercial opportunities for local businesses through sponsored locations and in-app lures. The analysis highlights how Niantic leveraged a classic brand to drive mainstream AR adoption.

### Recruitment Marketing Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/recruitment-marketing-outlook-digital-shift
- Published: 2016-07-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyzes the Australian recruitment marketing landscape, highlighting the near-complete migration from print to digital advertising. With online classifieds now accounting for 91% of total recruitment spend, the market is transitioning from a volume-based listing model to a technology-led ecosystem. The analysis evaluates the competitive dynamics between incumbents like Seek and professional networks like LinkedIn, forecasting a CAGR of 6% for online recruitment classifieds through 2021 while print continues its rapid decline.

### Australian Entertainment and Media 2016 - 2020: Free-to-air television
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-fta-tv-outlook-2016-2020
- Published: 2016-06-01
- Author: Rob Chan

This report analyses the Australian free-to-air (FTA) television market, forecasting a decline in advertising revenue from $3,789 million in 2015 to $3,610 million by 2020. The analysis explores the impact of digital disruption, the rise of second-screen usage, and the escalating costs of sports broadcasting rights. It further examines regulatory reforms, including media law changes and license fee cuts, as critical drivers for future industry consolidation and content reinvestment strategies.

### Property Marketing Outlook: REA continues to strengthen its position
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/property-marketing-outlook-rea-domain-dominance
- Published: 2016-06-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the Australian property marketing sector, highlighting a structural shift where digital migration now exceeds 80%. REA Group and Domain maintain a dominant duopoly with over 90% market share, though growth is slowing as the migration phase nears completion. The analysis forecasts a CAGR of 10% for online property classifieds through 2021, reaching $1.1bn, while print revenues are expected to decline at a CAGR of 22% to just $28m over the same period.

### Advertising Market Outlook: The Digital Revolution Continues
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/advertising-market-outlook-digital-revolution
- Published: 2016-06-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report forecasts the Australian advertising market through FY21, projecting a total spend of $16.6bn at a 2.8% CAGR. The analysis highlights a structural shift where digital platforms, specifically mobile and online video, are expected to dominate 60% of the market share. While terrestrial television faces a tipping point with projected declines from 2018, outdoor media and digital display segments show strong growth momentum driven by technological innovation and improved audience targeting capabilities.

### Is Audio’s Netflix moment approaching?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/audio-netflix-moment-australia-forecast
- Published: 2016-06-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the Australian radio-adjacent audio market, exploring segmentation across streaming, digital radio, and podcasts. It forecasts the market will grow from A$393m in 2015 to A$924m by 2020 at a CAGR of 19%. The analysis highlights the shift toward paid subscriptions in streaming, the growth of digital radio supported by vehicle penetration, and the rapid but small-scale expansion of the podcasting sector. It further examines the competitive threat these adjacencies pose to traditional analogue radio.

### The rise of platforms and news distribution
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/rise-platforms-news-distribution-australia
- Published: 2016-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report explores the implications of tech platforms entering the news space in response to shifts in devices, consumer behavior, and usability. It highlights that 59% of Australian consumers now use smartphones to access news, significantly higher than the UK (42%) and USA (44%). The analysis examines how platforms like Facebook, Apple, and Google are expanding from discovery roles into content hosting and advertising, forcing traditional publishers to reconsider their core business functions and digital revenue strategies.

### Video Entertainment Market Outlook: The Revolution Continues
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-video-entertainment-market-outlook-2016
- Published: 2016-04-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the Australian video entertainment market, forecasting a continued decline from $5.3bn in 2015 to $4.8bn by 2020. While SVOD and digital media are growing strongly, with SVOD expected to reach 4.3m subscribers by 2020, these gains are insufficient to offset the rapid collapse of physical media and the steady erosion of premium Pay-TV revenues. The analysis covers market shifts across Pay-TV, SVOD, TVOD/EST, Physical Media, and Cinema, highlighting structural headwinds facing traditional players.

### The rise of platforms and news distribution
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/rise-platforms-news-distribution-2016
- Published: 2016-03-22
- Author: Douglas McCabe

This report analyses the transition of news distribution from desktop-centric models to mobile platforms and social networks. It examines how tech giants like Facebook, Google, and Apple are expanding their roles into content hosting and ad sales, creating both opportunities and risks for traditional newsrooms. With mobile internet consumption reaching 153 billion minutes compared to 101 billion for desktop, publishers must decide whether to partner with dominant platforms or risk losing audience engagement in an increasingly fragmented digital ecosystem.

### The role of Millennials in the digital economy and the generational divide
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/millennials-digital-economy-generational-divide
- Published: 2016-03-08
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the evolving digital landscape in Australia, focusing on the shifting dynamics between Millennials and older generational cohorts. While Millennials remain the fastest technology adopters, Gen X and Baby Boomers possess significantly higher spending power and are increasingly engaging in online transactions and the sharing economy. The analysis forecasts that the digital economy will account for 30% of Australia's GDP by 2020, driven by the proliferation of smartphones and the narrowing of the generational digital divide.

### FLASH – Netflix goes truly global – but will the Studios play ball?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/netflix-global-expansion-studio-rights-challenge
- Published: 2016-02-04
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses Netflix's 4Q results, highlighting a strategic pivot toward international markets as US growth slows. With 4.04 million international net additions, the company now reaches 74.76 million members globally. The analysis explores the challenges of acquiring global content rights from resistant studios, the impact of intensified geoblocking on US subscriber reporting, and the significant increase in original programming expenditure to 600 hours for the upcoming year.

### Beyond Bitcoin
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/beyond-bitcoin-blockchain-financial-services
- Published: 2016-02-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the rise of blockchain technology beyond its origins in Bitcoin, focusing on its potential to disintermediate financial services. It explores the technical essence of distributed ledgers, the mechanics of transaction verification through nonces and hashing, and the emergence of smart contracts. The analysis forecasts a significant shift in the financial services spectrum, with major rollouts anticipated in 2017, while highlighting regulatory and technological hurdles that remain for industry-wide adoption.

### Netflix 4Q15
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/netflix-4q15-earnings-flash-note
- Published: 2016-01-19
- Author: VC

This report analyses Netflix's 4Q15 earnings, highlighting a record quarter for subscriber growth. The company added 5.59 million new members, bringing its total global base to 74.76 million. While domestic growth remains steady, the international segment is the primary engine for expansion, following the launch of services in 130 new countries. The analysis focuses on the financial implications of this rapid global rollout and the company's path toward global profitability by 2017.

### <<Report Title>>
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/on-demand-platform-market-entry-analysis
- Published: 2016-01-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report provides a strategic overview of the on-demand platform landscape in Australia and New Zealand, focusing on market leaders like Uber, Airbnb, and Netflix. It examines revenue models, including commission rates ranging from 5% to 30%, and tracks the entry of major digital players into the local market since 1999. The analysis highlights how new entrants disrupt incumbents by lowering barriers to entry and capturing significant market share through superior digital platforms.

### MAD Tech: Is the future better together?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/mad-tech-convergence-adtech-martech
- Published: 2016-01-01
- Author: David Birkhead

This report analyses the accelerating convergence of marketing technology (mar-tech) and advertising technology (ad-tech), collectively termed MAD Tech. It highlights that current solutions fail to meet marketer needs or consumer expectations, leading to a 33% drop in US ad-tech funding by year-end 2016. The analysis explores how data management, CRM, and analytics are becoming critical for marketing clouds as they integrate media-buying execution layers to fill existing voids in the marketing stack.

### Disruption in Education – Changing an Institution
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/disruption-in-education-changing-institution
- Published: 2016-01-01
- Author: Dhanu Narenthiran

This report analyses the digital transformation of primary and secondary education in Australia and New Zealand. While classroom pedagogy has remained stable for decades, the rise of digital technology is finally poised to undergo change on a scale not seen in centuries. The analysis focuses on the K-12 market, highlighting how increased device penetration and the democratisation of information are creating opportunities for new players while threatening long-standing publishers in a sector where Australia ranks in the top twenty globally.

### Digital AdEx Market Outlook – the hunter becomes the hunted
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/digital-adex-market-outlook-2015
- Published: 2015-12-08
- Author: Dan Blair

This report forecasts the Digital AdEx market to reach approximately 50% of all advertising expenditure by FY20, driven by a 7% CAGR. While the market is maturing compared to the 19% CAGR seen between FY12-15, Digital Display remains the fastest-growing segment with a projected 10% CAGR. The analysis highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior toward mobile and video, placing traditional display players under pressure from programmatic buying and ad-blocking technologies.

### AdEx Market Outlook – market growth underpinned by Digital
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/adex-market-outlook-digital-growth
- Published: 2015-11-23
- Author: Dan Blair

This report forecasts the Australian AdEx market to grow at a 2% CAGR through to 2020, reaching a total value of $14.9 billion. Growth is primarily driven by the continued migration of spend from Print to Digital, with Digital expected to grow at a 7.2% CAGR. While Traditional media faces structural headwinds, TV is projected to maintain anaemic growth of 1% CAGR, while Out-of-Home (OoH) and Radio show stronger resilience with 5.7% and 3.2% CAGRs respectively.

### The rise of the YouTube economy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/rise-of-youtube-economy-mcn-growth
- Published: 2015-11-20
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the rapid growth of the digital video market, which expanded at a 71% CAGR between FY12-15. It focuses on the emergence of YouTube and Multichannel Networks (MCNs) as material components of the digital economy. While traditional TV faces a marginal decline in viewing hours, the report identifies Print as the sector at highest risk from shifting advertising expenditures. Key challenges for the YouTube ecosystem include platform risk from Facebook and the need for original content.

### FLASH – Netflix 3Q: Content will drive growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/netflix-3q-content-growth-analysis
- Published: 2015-10-20
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses Netflix’s 3Q results, highlighting a divergence between US and international performance. While US subscriber net adds of 0.9m fell short of the 1.1m expected, international growth reached 2.7m, exceeding the 2.4m guidance. The analysis explores the impact of US credit card transitions, the strategic importance of the Japanese launch, and the role of original content in justifying recent price hikes to US$9.99 for new customers in key markets.

### Ad blocking on iOS 9 – Now you see me, now you don’t
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/ios-9-ad-blocking-impact-australia
- Published: 2015-10-12
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the impact of iOS 9's ad blocking capabilities on publishers and their revenue models. With mobile AdEx growing at a CAGR of 205% (2011-14), the introduction of third-party ad blocking extensions in Safari puts up to A$85m of annual mobile display spend at risk in Australia. The analysis explores key drivers for adoption, including privacy and user experience, while identifying vulnerable publisher verticals such as gaming, tech, and social media.

### Pay-TV Market Outlook – the growing importance of Pay-lite
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/pay-tv-market-outlook-pay-lite-importance
- Published: 2015-10-02
- Author: Dan Blair

This report provides a deep dive into Pay-TV forecasts, assessing the outlook for Premium Pay-TV versus Pay-lite services. We forecast Premium Pay-TV revenue to decline at a 4% CAGR to A$2.6b by FY20, reflecting cord cutting and shaving as dollars migrate to xVOD services. However, the impact on Foxtel is mitigated by its participation in these emerging markets. The report analyzes consumer behavior, ARPU trends, and the competitive landscape between traditional broadcasters and SVOD operators.

### Video Market Outlook – Physical makes way for Digital
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/video-market-outlook-physical-to-digital
- Published: 2015-09-30
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the structural shift in the Australian video entertainment market from physical to digital platforms. While the overall market size is expected to remain broadly flat with a -0.4% CAGR to 2020, the platform share will change dramatically. xVOD services are forecast to grow from 5% to 21% of the market, largely at the expense of Physical Media and Premium Pay-TV. The analysis explores household spending patterns, revenue deflation risks, and the impact of new entrants like Telstra TV on the competitive landscape.

### SVOD Market Outlook – the new kid on the block can approach $1b
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/svod-market-outlook-australia-2020
- Published: 2015-09-30
- Author: Dan Blair

This report provides a deep dive into the Australian SVOD market, forecasting revenue to grow at a 33% CAGR to reach A$848m by 2020. It assesses the competitive landscape where Netflix is expected to secure a 60% subscriber market share, while IPTV providers like Fetch maintain relevance through platform aggregation. The analysis highlights a significant shift from Premium Pay-TV to Pay-lite services, which are projected to account for 25% of total paid subscriber revenue by 2020.

### FLASH – Nine NRL rights deal – diamonds or stones?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/nine-nrl-rights-deal-analysis
- Published: 2015-08-17
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses Nine Entertainment Co.'s A$925 million NRL rights deal for the 2018-22 cycle. While the headline figure represents over 100% inflation compared to the 2013-17 period, the deal secures significantly more live content, including four live games per week and streaming rights. The analysis evaluates the impact of potential Pay-TV simulcast deals on the final cost and discusses the strategic implications for rivals like Foxtel and the upcoming AFL rights negotiations.

### Disruption In – Banking on disruption
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/banking-disruption-p2p-mobile-payments
- Published: 2015-08-06
- Author: Dan Blair

This report identifies financial services as the sector most susceptible to disruption, with an estimated A$250-300b in loan value at risk. It analyzes how technology is unbundling the traditional banking value chain, specifically through peer-to-peer (P2P) lending and mobile payment solutions. The analysis evaluates the Australian banking landscape, where the 'Big Four' control 80% of the market, and highlights how new entrants are bypassing traditional intermediaries to offer superior customer experiences and lower operating costs.

### FLASH – SVOD first battle won, but watch the data
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/netflix-svod-first-battle-won-australia
- Published: 2015-06-29
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyzes the rapid ascent of Netflix in the Australian SVOD market, where it has secured an estimated 1 million customers within three months of launch. This scale provides Netflix with an estimated $150 million in annualized revenue, allowing for a $75 million content investment that doubles the expected business case of local rivals. The analysis explores the implications for incumbent Free-to-Air (FTA) and Pay TV operators, suggesting a strategic pivot toward non-global content like live sports and local productions.

### Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/mary-meeker-state-of-the-internet-australia
- Published: 2015-06-16
- Author: Dan Blair

This report synthesises key themes from Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends Report, focusing on the Australian context. It identifies three primary trends: the shift to mobile, the transition to a service economy, and the ongoing disruption of traditional industries. While Australia often adopts new technologies slower due to duopolistic market structures, it experiences rapid change once consumer demand takes hold. Key data points include mobile's 22% share of screen time and the service sector's 85-90% contribution to total jobs.

### The evolution will be televised – assessing the SVOD impact
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/evolution-televised-assessing-svod-impact
- Published: 2015-06-10
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyzes the impact of Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) on the Australian video market following the launch of three major platforms. Based on a proprietary survey of 5,300 consumers, the research identifies Netflix as the early market leader with 32% awareness. While SVOD poses a real risk to Pay TV revenue (estimated at 3-6%), the most significant substitution threats are directed at TVOD and physical media, which face potential revenue impacts of 17% and 4% respectively.

### Tuning the dial – Radio Survey 5
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-radio-survey-5-digital-shift
- Published: 2015-01-23
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the Australian radio landscape, highlighting that 95% of Australians listen to radio weekly. While terrestrial radio advertising reached $1.1 billion in 2014, digital transformation is accelerating with DAB+ reaching 2.8 million listeners in major capital cities. The analysis explores the shift toward online streaming, where the audience has nearly doubled to 1.6 million people, and examines the evolving business models of OTT operators like Spotify and Pandora in the local market.

### OTT video; creating a revolution
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australian-ott-video-revolution-monetization
- Published: 2015-01-01
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the nascent Australian OTT video market, highlighting its rapid subscriber growth despite being in an early stage compared to traditional TV. It explores monetization strategies for telcos and broadcasters, emphasizing the need for collaboration in a fragmented SVOD landscape. Key regulatory challenges are identified, specifically regarding net neutrality, anti-siphoning laws, and media ownership rules as video is projected to consume 85% of internet bandwidth by 2020.

### Digital Portal Adjacencies
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/digital-portal-adjacencies-real-estate
- Published: 2015-01-01
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the value chain adjacencies for real estate portals such as REA and Domain. With 60% of real estate related advertising expenditure now online, portals are seeking growth in horizon 2 and 3 opportunities including finance, utilities, and renovation markets. The analysis sizes key elements within the value chain and assesses the capability of major players to monetize leads and e-commerce across development, transaction, and ownership lifecycles.

### What’s on the telly – PVR viewing trends
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-platforms/australia-pvr-viewing-trends-analysis
- Published: 2015-01-01
- Author: Dan Blair

This report examines the growth of Personal Video Recorders (PVRs) in Australia, utilizing a proprietary survey of 5,300 consumers and data from Fetch TV. It establishes that the Australian market is approximately two years behind the UK in PVR penetration. The analysis focuses on how time-shifted viewing provides viewers with more choice, enabling binge viewing and ad skipping, while assessing the impact across different platforms, FTA operators, and content genres.

## Media

### Future of Australian Television Part II: Four Scenarios to 2035
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/future-australian-television-scenarios-2035
- Published: 2026-07-31
- Author: Venture Insights

This report develops an integrated set of long-term scenarios for the Australian free-to-air television market to 2035, and sets out the strategic implications for each stakeholder group along with the policy changes required. It builds on the transmission-and-spectrum analysis of a companion report by crossing two critical uncertainties -how the spectrum and transmission question is resolved, and whether broadcasters' digital pivot succeeds commercially - to produce four market-level outcomes. The report argues that the industry's transition needs to be managed: an unmanaged transition between broadcast and online delivery delivers the worst commercial and policy outcome for every stakeholder. Much hangs on whether the industry can execute its digital pivot; and in every case significant media-policy reform will be needed to accommodate an environment in which scale and partnership are essential to survival.

### Future of Australian Television Part I: The Terrestrial TV Endgame
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/future-australian-television-part-1
- Published: 2026-07-31
- Author: Venture Insights

This report examines the transmission-and-spectrum question at the heart of Australian free-to-air television's future. For free-to-air broadcasting, what happens to the digital terrestrial television (DTT) platform and the UHF frequencies it occupies is not one issue among many – it determines the platform's cost base, its reach, and ultimately its viability. Content obligations, prominence rules and ownership changes are best understood as context that changes the payoffs on the transmission choice rather than as separable questions. The analysis sets out the four ways the terrestrial platform can evolve; traces how the 2020 Media Reform Green Paper posed the spectrum question, and how the reforms that have since landed reshaped its payoffs without resolving it; and compares Australia's position with Canada, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and the European Union through the transmission-and-spectrum lens. It concludes that Australia has become the outlier mainstream on content regulation, yet alone among its close regulatory peers in having no published plan for its terrestrial endgame. A companion report carries the argument forward into integrated market scenarios to 2035 and their strategic implications.

### NRL's $5.3 Billion Deal: The Decline of Network Ten and the Rise of Subscription Sport
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/nrl-media-rights-agreement-reconfigures-australian-media
- Published: 2026-07-10
- Author: Venture Insights

The recent $5.3 billion NRL media rights agreement has initiated a significant reconfiguration of the Australian media sector. This report explores three distinct medium-term impacts catalysed by this landmark deal: the linear disinvestment and decline of Network Ten, the reassertion of local sovereign over sports rights, and DAZN-led yield optimisation driving hyper-inflation in subscription sports. These impacts reflect shifts in corporate boundaries, regulatory frameworks, and consumer payment models, ultimately defining the future of Australian media.

### Navigating Fragmentation: The Future of Australian Public Broadcasters' News Reporting
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/navigating-fragmentation-australian-psm
- Published: 2026-07-06
- Author: Venture Insights

This report, "Navigating Fragmentation: The Future of Australian Public Service News Reporting," examines the challenges faced by Australia's public service media (PSM), the ABC and SBS, in a rapidly fragmenting audience landscape. It highlights declining trust in news, political polarisation, and evolving audience expectations driven by technology. The report proposes a segmented editorial strategy for both broadcasters to maintain relevance and secure long-term public funding, focusing on distinct demographic cohorts and platform-specific content delivery.

### 15.4% Surge in oOh Media Leads Sector as M&A Activity Offsets Governance Turmoil
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/media-may-2026-commentary
- Published: 2026-06-01
- Author: Venture Insights

The media sector experienced significant divergence in May 2026, characterised by aggressive M&A activity and governance setbacks. oOh Media emerged as the top performer with a 15.4% increase following a bidding war, while ARN Media fell 10.7% amid a shareholder revolt and substantial revenue losses.

### FTA TV Recovery Requires Ad Agency Re-set: Moving from Clicks to Value
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/fta-tv-recovery-agency-reset-2
- Published: 2026-05-15
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the Australian free-to-air (FTA) television landscape, focusing on the shift from traditional broadcast to Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD). It explores the correlation between GDP growth and advertising expenditure, the impact of media agency incentive structures on TV's market share, and the operational barriers hindering linear TV buying. The analysis highlights the role of VOZ measurement and performance-based remuneration in correcting market inefficiencies to ensure the long-term sustainability of local content production.

### Media Sector Consolidation and Litigation: oOh!media Surges 23.2% on PEP Bid While ARN Faces Legal Headwinds
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/media-april-2026-commentary
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

ARN Media shares rose 9.8% during the month of April 2026. ARN Media faced significant legal headwinds in late March 2026 as two high-profile former contractors commenced proceedings in the Federal Court. On 23 March 2026, the company announced that Mr. Kyle Sandilands filed suit against ARN and its subsidiary, Commonwealth Broadcasting Corporation Pty Ltd (CBC), alleging invalid contract termination and unconscionable conduct. The applicants seek specific performance of two contracts and unspecified damages. This was followed on 31 March 2026 by legal proceedings from Ms. Jacqueline Henderson. Henderson alleges her termination constituted adverse action under section 340 of the Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth) following a 'Complaint Letter' regarding psychosocial health and bullying. Henderson's claim includes a specific compensation demand of at least $82,250,000, plus pecuniary penalties and costs. ARN disputes all claims and intends to defend the proceedings. While the company maintains it cannot yet estimate the financial impact, the litigation targets the core talent of its KIIS 1065 Sydney license. Sector-wide consolidation continues to impact the landscape, evidenced by Pacific Equity Partners' A$1.40 per share bid for oOh!media on 29 April 2026 and Nine Entertainment's 30 April 2026 completion of its broadcast radio asset sale for a $56 million enterprise value.

### SCA exits regional TV, the end of a media policy era
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/sca-exits-regional-tv-media-policy
- Published: 2025-06-26
- Author: David Kennedy

On 30 June, Southern Cross Austereo (SCA) will complete its sale of its Seven Network affiliates to Seven West Media. This follows a sale of its Ten Network affiliates to the Ten Network in the aggregated markets of Queensland, southern New South Wales, and Victoria, agreed in December 2024. With these sales, SCA has exited the television market. Regional broadcasting in Australia was the product of the Hawke Government’s ‘equalisation’ policy. This policy saw affiliates of all three metropolitan networks set up in the major “aggregated” markets in regional Australia, bringing diversity and competition. But the rise of BVOD services, which are exclusively owned by the metropolitan broadcasters, took away regional TV’s growth engine. The policy response was to change the cross-media rules in 2017 to allow metropolitan networks to acquire regional licences. With this transaction, that process is all but complete, laying a platform for future regional viability.

### Why is Australia’s FTA TV stronger than New Zealand’s?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/australia-nz-fta-tv-comparison
- Published: 2025-03-23
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian free-to-air (FTA) TV industry remains a major force in Australian media, despite the narrative of decline. Indeed, it is stronger than in most other comparable countries. This is a policy-driven success. Australian governments took significant decisions over the last few decades to scale and diversify the FTA TV industry. The contrast with New Zealand is instructive. This matters because FTA TV remains a key local alternative to an increasingly globalised (or Americanised) media. The recent surge in “America First” rhetoric in the United States shows that this globalisation isn’t necessarily going to be benign or in local interests. A look at history, however, shows that Australia and New Zealand can affect outcomes - should they choose to do so.

### 2024 VOZ data shows FTA TV has stabilised
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/2024-voz-data-fta-tv-stabilised
- Published: 2025-03-06
- Author: David Kennedy

2024 FTA TV viewing data released by VOZ this week shows signs of recovery in FTA viewing. Total FTA TV reach for individuals was 72%, still higher than any other video platform. BVOD viewing is now growing fast (25% p.a.). Although online viewing still accounts for only 12% of all FTA viewing, online growth is driving an overall lift in FTA TV viewing. This is in line with other data that points to a more positive picture for FTA viewing over the last year.

### The times will suit FTA TV as households turn to “free”
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/fta-tv-reach-growth-fy24
- Published: 2024-11-08
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the sharp increase in FTA TV reach during FY24, challenging the narrative of inevitable decline. It argues that significant economic and policy drivers, including an 8% drop in inflation-adjusted household disposable incomes, are pushing consumers toward free, ad-supported services. While SVOD growth has stalled following the pandemic, the surge in BVOD uptake is providing a new foundation for the industry to stabilise its business model and reassert its value in the advertising ecosystem.

### Radio reach growing as both broadcast and online expand
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/radio-reach-growth-broadcast-online-expand
- Published: 2024-10-31
- Author: David Kennedy

Venture Insights’ 2024 Consumer Media survey data shows that radio reach rose significantly in FY24, driven mainly by a surge in the uptake of online radio app listening. There is an analogy with FTA, which last week’s commentary showed has had a similar resurgence. This is good news for the radio industry, which is looking to online radio to accelerate revenue growth.

### Media market trends ensure a SCA TV deal - sooner or later
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/sca-tv-deal-market-trends
- Published: 2024-10-04
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the structural pressures driving an inevitable sale of Southern Cross Austereo’s (SCA) regional TV assets to metropolitan affiliates Seven and Ten. Regional TV’s share of total free-to-air ad revenue has contracted from 24% to 20% over the last decade, exacerbated by the shift of Nine’s affiliation to WIN in 2021. With SCA’s TV EBITDA falling 29% to $13.3 million in FY24, the valuation gap between buyers and sellers is narrowing, facilitating a long-anticipated market consolidation.

### Commercial TV’s long-term growth story
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/commercial-tv-long-term-growth-story
- Published: 2024-08-23
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the outlook for the Australian Free-to-Air (FTA) television industry, forecasting a return to revenue growth by FY26. While per capita viewing continues to fall, the rate of decline is slowing as SVOD and AVOD competition matures. The analysis highlights that BVOD generated 79% more revenue per minute watched than broadcast in 2022, suggesting that as BVOD share grows to a projected 22% by FY28, it will lead long-term industry growth and support company valuations.

### Has commercial TV hit rock bottom?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/commercial-tv-ad-revenue-fy24-bottom
- Published: 2024-08-16
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the recent performance and future outlook of the Australian commercial TV advertising market. Total TV advertising revenue, excluding SBS, fell 8.1% to $3.28 billion in FY24, primarily due to a significant 12% decline in metropolitan free-to-air (FTA) revenues. While Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD) grew by 12.7%, it remains only 13% of total industry revenue. The brief forecasts a further 4% decline in FY25 before a return to growth in FY26 as economic conditions improve.

### Out Of Home advertising boom will continue
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/ooh-advertising-boom-forecast-cy25
- Published: 2024-07-19
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the sustained growth of the Australian Out Of Home (OOH) advertising sector, which saw net media revenue increase 12.2% to $1.19 billion in 2023. Driven by the digitalisation of over 74% of member inventory and aggressive expansion into retail and transport hubs, the sector is outperforming traditional media like TV and radio. Venture Insights forecasts total OOH revenues will reach $1,603m in CY25 as economic conditions improve and digital yields continue to rise.

### Radio industry online advertising
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/radio-industry-online-advertising-forecast-2028
- Published: 2024-05-30
- Author: David Kennedy

This report projects that by FY28 the radio industry will generate $189 million in online revenues, evenly split between streaming and podcast ads. While traditional radio remains pivotal, music streaming and podcasting are reshaping the competitive landscape, especially among younger demographics. To adapt, radio broadcasters are investing in online streaming platforms, podcast production, and programmatic advertising, leveraging local content and partnerships to remain competitive. The report underscores the importance of embracing transformation to secure market position and sustainable growth amid evolving consumer preferences.

### Australian radio industry online advertising
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/australian-radio-online-advertising-forecast-2028
- Published: 2024-05-30
- Author: David Kennedy

This report projects that by FY28 the Australian radio industry will generate $189 million in online revenues, evenly split between streaming and podcast ads. While traditional radio remains pivotal, music streaming and podcasting are reshaping the competitive landscape, especially among younger demographics. To adapt, radio broadcasters are investing in online streaming platforms, podcast production, and programmatic advertising, leveraging local content and partnerships to remain competitive. The report underscores the importance of embracing transformation to secure market position.

### Radio industry apps have growth potential
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/radio-industry-apps-growth-potential
- Published: 2024-04-18
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the accelerating uptake of radio industry apps in Australia, which reached 30% population penetration in 2023. While music streaming apps maintain a higher overall penetration at 60%, radio apps are growing significantly faster, with nearly 30% of current users starting within the last 12 months. The brief explores how tighter household budgets and the appeal of local content are driving listeners toward ad-supported digital audio platforms, creating significant headroom for revenue growth.

### FTA TV viewing decline will ease, but wildcards still in play
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/fta-tv-viewing-decline-wildcards
- Published: 2024-02-23
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the shifting landscape of Australian video consumption, forecasting a moderation in the decline of Free-to-Air (FTA) television viewing to a 2% CAGR over the next five years. While broadcast investment faces pressure, FTA retains superior monthly reach compared to SVOD and AVOD platforms. The analysis explores how maturing subscription markets and the rise of short-form content create a more nuanced competitive environment for traditional broadcasters and digital incumbents alike.

### The Future of TV – Video Viewing Trends and Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/future-of-tv-video-viewing-trends-outlook
- Published: 2024-02-16
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the evolving landscape of Australian video consumption, highlighting a significant shift from traditional broadcast to digital platforms. While total video viewing remains stable, per capita daily viewing of FTA and pay TV combined declined 32% between 2017 and 2023. The analysis forecasts a stabilization period through FY28, with SVOD growth slowing to a 2% CAGR as the market reaches saturation. Despite these declines, FTA retains the highest monthly reach at 84%, underscoring its continued relevance for news and local content.

### Video Entertainment Market Forecast & Outlook 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/video-entertainment-market-forecast-2023
- Published: 2023-12-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the Australian video entertainment market to grow at a 3.9% CAGR over FY23/28, reaching $9.2bn. Growth is primarily driven by the SVOD sector, which is expected to reach $5.9bn by FY28. Conversely, Premium Pay-TV and physical media continue to face structural declines, with Pay-TV revenues falling at a -4.1% CAGR. The analysis covers market share shifts among major players like Netflix, Disney+, and Foxtel, alongside recovery trends in the cinema sector following pandemic-related disruptions.

### SCA deal would give ARN a national footprint
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/arn-sca-deal-national-footprint
- Published: 2023-10-20
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the joint offer by ARN and Anchorage Capital Partners (ACP) for Southern Cross Austereo (SCA). The proposed transaction involves a complex separation of assets to comply with Australia's '2 to a market' and '5/4 voices' media control rules. ARN aims to expand its network to 10 metro and 88 regional stations, while ACP would retain SCA's TV business and a separate radio network. The deal seeks to address declining share prices and subdued advertising receipts through structural efficiencies.

### SCA negotiations with Ten overshadowed by structural tensions
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/sca-ten-negotiations-structural-tensions
- Published: 2023-10-13
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the ongoing negotiations between Southern Cross Media (SCA) and Network Ten following the expiry of their affiliate agreement in July 2023. It examines how a 7% decline in Ten's viewing share and the rise of Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD) are creating downward pressure on affiliate fees. The brief also explores the strategic rationale for a potential acquisition of SCA's TV assets by Ten's parent, Paramount Global, to support its SVOD ambitions in regional Australia.

### 2023 Consumer Media Survey: Video Viewing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/2023-consumer-media-survey-video-viewing
- Published: 2023-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the Australian video viewing market based on a June 2023 survey of 1,124 respondents. It examines the reach and consumption patterns of Free-to-Air (FTA) broadcast, BVOD, Pay TV, SVOD, and AVOD services. While FTA remains the dominant platform with a combined reach of 85%, the market is characterized by a shift toward digital apps and a cooling SVOD sector where 20% of households intend to cancel a service in the next 12 months.

### Regional media needs a Government advertising boost
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/regional-media-government-advertising-boost
- Published: 2023-07-06
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the structural pressures facing regional media in Australia, forecasting a 5.0% drop in total advertising expenditure for FY24. Regional outlets are disproportionately affected due to their reliance on small and medium business clients and a significant contraction in government advertising. The brief argues for urgent reform in government ad spend allocation, noting that while 28% of the population lives in regional areas, current spending targets often fall short of this demographic representation.

### Advertising Expenditure forecast: expect a rough FY24
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/advertising-expenditure-forecast-rough-fy24
- Published: 2023-06-29
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts a 5.0% decline in total advertising expenditure (AdEx) for FY24, following a period of post-pandemic volatility. While FY22 saw significant growth of 19.4% driven by a $2.6b increase in digital spend, the market is now cooling as higher interest rates weigh on consumer confidence. The analysis covers television, radio, digital, outdoor, and cinema, highlighting that while traditional sectors face structural declines, outdoor and online audio are positioned for medium-term growth through FY27.

### ARN Media investment shows long-term confidence in radio
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/arn-media-sca-investment-radio-confidence
- Published: 2023-06-21
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses ARN Media's recent acquisition of a 14.8% stake in Southern Cross Austereo (SCA), interpreting the move as a strategic bet on the digital future of radio. While radio advertising has been slow to recover post-pandemic, the sector is entering a digital transition phase similar to television's BVOD evolution. With only 3% of radio revenues currently derived from online platforms despite 36% app penetration, the industry is positioned for significant revenue growth as business models mature over the next few years.

### Ad spend decline for TV, radio highlights need for digital growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/ad-spend-decline-tv-radio-digital-growth
- Published: 2023-05-03
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the March 2023 SMI agency ad spend figures for Australia, revealing a significant downturn in traditional media revenues. While broadcast TV and radio saw declines of 9.4% and 14.0% respectively, digital counterparts showed resilience or growth. The brief highlights the urgent need for traditional media, particularly the radio industry which has a digital revenue share of only 3%, to accelerate its digital transition to offset the erosion of traditional advertising streams caused by economic shifts and technological change.

### Online radio a big opportunity
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/online-radio-digital-audio-opportunity
- Published: 2023-03-20
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the growth of the Australian digital audio advertising market, which reached $221m in CY22. While digital currently accounts for only 3% of total radio industry revenue, major networks like Southern Cross Austereo are seeing significant reach expansion, with podcast audiences growing by 355k in a single month. The brief explores how localized content and targeted digital advertising provide a path to recovery following the pandemic-driven decline in traditional broadcast revenues.

### FACT PACK H1, 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/australia-total-tv-fact-pack-h1-2022
- Published: 2022-08-01
- Author: thinkTV

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Australian television landscape for the first half of 2022. It details the penetration and usage of linear TV and Broadcast Video on Demand (BVOD) across various demographics and devices. Key findings highlight that Total TV reaches 88.3% of ad-supported video viewing in-home, with linear TV continuing to account for the vast majority of time spent. The data underscores the growing importance of connected TVs in the BVOD ecosystem, accounting for nearly 73% of total daily hours per device.

### Consumer media survey: audio market in flux
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/consumer-media-survey-audio-market-flux
- Published: 2022-01-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the results of a consumer media survey of 1,004 Australian respondents conducted in late 2021. It examines the shifting landscape of audio consumption, highlighting the rise of IP-based services including music streaming, podcasts, and online radio. While broadcast radio remains the leader for in-vehicle listening with 65% uptake, online services now dominate in-home and personal activity contexts, signaling a permanent transition toward digital audio ecosystems.

### Future of the Australian radio industry
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/future-australian-radio-industry-multiplatform
- Published: 2021-12-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian radio industry's transition toward a multi-platform future, driven by the near-ubiquity of IP networks. While broadcast radio remains the top audio medium with 72% monthly reach, it faces increasing competition from global streaming services and smart speaker platforms. The analysis evaluates the ACMA's spectrum management priorities, the commercial performance of major radio groups, and the technological shift toward integrated broadcast/online advertising models to maintain relevance in a fragmented audio ecosystem.

### Media Roundup of August
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/media-roundup-august-2021-fta-recovery
- Published: 2021-09-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the FY21 performance of the Australian media market, focusing on the recovery of free-to-air (FTA) television and the strategic shift toward digital audio. While metro FTA networks saw EBITDA growth as high as 116%, regional sectors continue to underperform due to structural shifts in advertising and the growth of Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD). The report also examines Foxtel's transition to streaming and Southern Cross Austereo's investment in AI-driven audio personalization through its LiSTNR platform.

### Video viewing forecast to 2030: The new normal emerges
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/video-viewing-forecast-2030-australia
- Published: 2021-05-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the accelerating decline of live TV viewing in Australia and the corresponding rise of SVOD and AVOD services. It provides a comprehensive forecast to 2030, detailing how traditional broadcast content, which accounted for over two-thirds of daily viewing in 2017, fell to less than half by 2020. The analysis explores the impact of broadband infrastructure, changing age cohort behaviors, and the strategic necessity for broadcasters to invest in digital-first, programmatic advertising-led platforms to survive the next decade.

### Australia Radio Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/australia-radio-market-outlook-2020
- Published: 2020-10-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the Australian radio market, forecasting a 4.2% CAGR in advertising revenue over FY20-24. While radio maintains a dominant 61% share of audio consumption, it faces increasing pressure from digital disruptors. Streaming radio is projected to grow at 20.3% CAGR, increasing its share of total radio AdEx from 18% to 32%. The analysis covers market composition, shifting listening methods in-car and at home, and the rising threat from adjacent audio media like podcasts and music streaming services.

### Nine, Seven results: COVID impact disguises accelerating FTA revenue decline
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/nine-seven-results-fta-revenue-decline
- Published: 2020-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the FY20 financial results of Nine Entertainment and Seven West Media, highlighting a significant structural decline in the Free-to-Air (FTA) advertising market. While COVID-19 caused a sharp 21.8% YoY drop in metro FTA ad revenue for the half-year ending June 2020, an underlying 7% decline was already evident in 1H20. The analysis explores how both networks are pivoting toward Broadcaster Video on Demand (BVOD) and subscription services like Stan to offset linear losses, alongside aggressive cost-reduction strategies.

### oOh!media 1HCY19 update: temporary blip with long term outlook remaining strong
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/ooh-media-1hcy19-earnings-update
- Published: 2019-09-02
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses oOh!media's 1HCY19 earnings update, where the company reported a 5% YoY revenue increase to $304.9mn but lowered its full-year EBITDA guidance by 15-17%. The performance was impacted by reduced ad spends during Australian elections and weakness in the automotive and banking segments. Despite these short-term headwinds, the outlook for the Out-of-Home market remains structurally strong with a forecast 5.4% CAGR through to 2023.

### In Pod we trust? The rise and rise of podcasts, and where to next
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/australia-podcast-market-trends-2019
- Published: 2019-09-01
- Author: Robin Jordan

This report analyses the Australian podcasting sector, highlighting that awareness has reached 80% of the population, surpassing the US at 70%. While the total pool of all-time listeners remains stable at approximately one in three Australians, engagement is intensifying, with weekly listeners now consuming six podcasts on average. The analysis explores the dominance of Apple Podcasts, which accounts for over 60% of downloads, and evaluates the challenges of monetising mid-market and niche content through advertising and paid models.

### Cinema market trends 2019 – Australia and New Zealand
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/cinema-market-trends-australia-new-zealand-2019
- Published: 2019-04-01
- Author: Chris Paterson

This report analyses the structural challenges facing the Australian and New Zealand cinema markets, forecasting a revenue decline of -0.4% CAGR through 2023. It examines the impact of SVOD disruptors like Netflix, which released 75 original films in 2018, and the failure of subscription models like MoviePass. The analysis highlights falling per capita attendance, the widening gap between average and top-tier ticket prices, and the emergence of new cinematic trends in Asia such as on-demand mini-theatres.

### Seven and Nine 1H19 update – increasing share in a declining market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/seven-nine-1h19-earnings-update
- Published: 2019-02-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the 1HFY19 earnings of Seven West Media and Nine Entertainment, highlighting a challenging environment where core FTA revenues declined 4.6% YoY to $2.1bn. Despite the market contraction, both players increased or maintained audience share. The analysis forecasts a 3.4% CAGR decline in FTA revenues through 2022, emphasizing the strategic shift toward BVOD and SVOD platforms, such as Stan and 9Now, to offset traditional broadcast and print weakness.

### oOh!media earnings update: double digit revenue growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/ooh-media-1hcy18-earnings-update
- Published: 2018-08-20
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses oOh!media's 1HCY18 financial performance, highlighting an 11% increase in revenue to A$192 million. Growth was primarily underpinned by the digital portfolio, which now represents 64% of total revenue, and strong performances in the Road, Fly, and Locate segments. The analysis also covers the strategic rationale behind the A$570 million Adshel acquisition and the broader industry transition from analogue to digital platforms in the Australian and New Zealand Out-of-Home (OOH) markets.

### Ten Network– going once, going twice, gone…?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/ten-network-voluntary-administration-analysis
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyzes Ten Network's entry into voluntary administration on 14 June 2017 after failing to secure a $250 million loan guarantee. It explores the network's financial history, including a $232 million first-half net loss in 2017, and evaluates potential suitors like News Corp and Bruce Gordon. The analysis suggests that administration provides a strategic opportunity to renegotiate expensive US content deals and restructure for a digital-first media landscape.

### Australian Out-of-Home Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/australian-out-of-home-market-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyses the Australian Out-of-Home (OoH) advertising market, forecasting a steady growth trajectory to reach $1,005 million by CY2021. Following a record high of $789.5 million in 2016, the sector is being transformed by Digital Out-of-Home (DOOH), which now represents 38.1% of the market. The analysis explores market composition dominated by four key players, international comparisons with the UK, USA, and Canada, and the impact of technological innovations such as beacons and programmatic advertising.

### Australia Radio Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/australia-radio-market-outlook-2016
- Published: 2016-12-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyses the Australian radio market, forecasting a stable but challenging five-year outlook. While radio currently dominates the audio landscape with a 54% share of average daily consumption, advertising expenditure is expected to remain flat at a -0.4% CAGR, moving from $1.12bn in 2016 to $1.10bn by 2021. The analysis explores the impact of digital disruptors, the rise of streaming services, and the long-term threat posed by autonomous vehicles to radio's unique selling proposition in-car.

### The future of free-to-air television. Part 1: The Video Revolution
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/future-fta-tv-video-revolution
- Published: 2016-10-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyses the structural shift in the Australian television market from a traditional paid vs. unpaid dichotomy to a fragmented digital video landscape. It forecasts that linear TV viewing will continue to decline as non-linear services, growing at a 26% CAGR, redefine consumer habits. While broadcast reach remains at 86.1%, the rise of SVOD and mobile video consumption is eroding the traditional FTA business model, necessitating a strategic shift toward digital revenue and cost reduction.

### FLASH – Ten Network gains a big brother in Foxtel
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/ten-network-foxtel-mcn-deal-analysis
- Published: 2015-06-18
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses Ten Network's A$154m capital raising, headlined by Foxtel's 15% stake acquisition at 15cps. The deal facilitates a merger of sales functions with MCN, aiming to improve Ten's current 0.85x power ratio. While providing immediate breathing space and a 25% shareholding in MCN, the capital injection primarily addresses A$105m in existing bank debt rather than providing the aggressive capacity needed to outbid Nine and Seven for marquee sports rights.

### The TV Guide – Survey 10
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/media/nec-leads-survey-10-fta-ratings
- Published: 2014-12-08
- Author: Daniel Blair

This report analyzes the OzTAM metro free-to-air (FTA) Survey 10 results for the period of 2 November to 29 November 2014. It highlights a significant shift in market leadership, with NEC (Nine) rising to a 38.0% primetime share, overtaking SWM (Seven) which fell to 37.4%. The analysis explores the ongoing trend of audience migration from main channels to multi-channels, which now capture 33.1% of the primetime audience, and provides revenue share forecasts for FY15.

## Telecom

### The Connectivity Trap: Why Telstra's Dominant Position May Be Its Greatest Strategic Liability
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/singtel28-telstra-cf30-connectivity-trap
- Published: 2026-07-30
- Author: Venture Insights

The proposed Morrison Equity Partners acquisition of a 30% stake in Optus (at a reported ~6× EBITDA) is not simply an asset recycling event. It is a signal from Singtel's board that connectivity economics in Australia are a diminishing return on capital, and that the future belongs to the infrastructure layer sitting above the pipe. This note compares Singtel28 and Telstra's Connected Future 30, argues that Telstra's strategically 'safe' plan carries an underappreciated long-term risk, and asks why Australia lacks a credible domestic champion in the sovereign AI infrastructure race.

### The Great AI Gamble: How Investors And Telcos Must Manage AI Capacity Uncertainty
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-ai-power-demand-forecast
- Published: 2026-07-24
- Author: Venture Insights

Australia's formal AEMO data centre pipeline totals 5.4 GW in grid connection applications. The IEA simultaneously says that energy per Al task is falling at least an order of magnitude annually. Those two facts imply that the pipeline is overbuilt. We think that reading is too quick. The same IEA dataset records total data centre electricity consumption rising 17% in 2025 and Al-focused consumption surging 50% during the period of order-of-magnitude per-task efficiency gains. That is the signature of a rebound effect, and it is the reason William Stanley Jevons' 1865 observation about coal remains the single most important idea in this market. This report investigates the tension between falling unit costs and rising volumes, and argues that the honest conclusion is not that Australian Al power demand is overestimated, but that the credible range around it is far wider than either the bull or bear case admits. That width, not the midpoint, is what should drive capital allocation.

### How Regulation Squeezes Investment in Telco Network Resilience: What Needs to Change
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/regulation-squeezes-australian-telco-investment
- Published: 2026-07-09
- Author: Venture Insights

This week's Telstra outage has triggered an almost ritual cascade of condemnation from politics and media.  But the Australian mobile network isn't getting more unreliable objectively. Rather, our dependence on it is growing. The only solution is more investment to meet this need. This report looks at how Australian Government policy holds investment back, and what needs to change.

### Moose Mobile's TPG Shift Ignites Price War as MVNO Growth Slows
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/mvno-maturity-mobile-competition
- Published: 2026-06-29
- Author: Venture Insights

Swoop Holdings' decision to move Moose Mobile's 135,000 subscribers from Optus to TPG Telecom aims to reduce wholesale costs and boost margins by 50%. This migration, however, introduces significant churn risk in a maturing MVNO market, where growth is projected to slow to 3-4% by FY31. The move has ignited a fierce marketing battle, with Moose Mobile implementing price cuts and gamified retention strategies, while rival MVNOs like Yomojo aggressively target these migrating customers with deep discounts and network trust narratives.

### Starlink IPO: What It Means for Australian Investors and the ANZ Connectivity Market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/starlink-ipo-what-it-means-for-australian-investors-and-the-anz-connectivity-mar
- Published: 2026-06-11
- Author: Venture Insights

The SpaceX IPO is not just another tech listing — it is the largest in financial history. SpaceX is targeting a 12 June 2026 Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX, with share pricing confirmed after market close on 11 June at US$135 per share, targeting a valuation of US$1.75 trillion. This eclipses Saudi Aramco's 2019 offering of US$25.6 billion by nearly three times, with SpaceX targeting a raise of approximately US$75 billion. The valuation multiples are, by any conventional measure, extraordinary. Morningstar estimates SpaceX will be marketed as a platform business at approximately 94 times 2025 revenue. By EBITDA, the implied valuation translates to an EV/EBITDA multiple of around 156× — far exceeding aerospace and defence sector benchmarks of 13.8× and internet services at 14.6×. The bull case for this premium rests primarily on Starlink. Starlink serves 9.2 million subscribers across over 150 countries, having doubled its base for two consecutive years, and generated an estimated US$10.6 billion in revenue and US$5.8 billion in EBITDA in 2025, representing approximately 67% of total company revenue at a 54% margin. Yet the financials carry material complexity. Despite reporting US$6.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, SpaceX posted a GAAP net loss of US$4.94 billion for the full year, with Q1 2026 adding a further US$4.28 billion loss in a single quarter. The accumulated deficit now stands at US$41.3 billion. The gap is driven by aggressive AI infrastructure capex — the Colossus 1 data centre, housing 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, secured a deal with Anthropic worth US$1.25 billion per month through May 2029. Fifteen days post-listing, index mechanics will amplify demand: SpaceX is expected to enter the Nasdaq 100 approximately 15 days after listing, triggering an estimated US$22–27 billion in forced mechanical buying from QQQ index funds globally.

### Explainer: Starlink LEOSat technology evolution
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/starlink-leosat-technology-evolution-anz
- Published: 2026-06-05
- Author: Venture Insights

This explainer analyses the rapid technological iteration of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite constellation, tracing its evolution from the 20 Gbps V1 baseline to the upcoming 1 Tbps V3 satellites. It explores how these advancements shift Starlink from a niche rural provider to a direct competitor for terrestrial NBN and UFB fibre networks. The analysis highlights the dual nature of Starlink as both a critical roaming partner for ANZ telcos and a significant threat to their core residential broadband margins.

### SpaceX’s Starlink Ambition: How LEOSat Threatens Telcos’ Grip on the ANZ Connectivity Market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/spacex-starlink-anz-telco-threat
- Published: 2026-06-05
- Author: Venture Insights

This report explores the impact of expanding Starlink LEOSat capacity in the ANZ market, and how domestic telecommunications operators in these markets will be affected by growing competition from Starlink broadband and mobile services.

### Megaport Surges 69% as AI Infrastructure Demand Offsets Tuas Acquisition Collapse
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-may-2026-commentary
- Published: 2026-06-03
- Author: Venture Insights

The Telco sector in May 2026 was defined by extreme volatility driven by AI infrastructure pivots and failed M&A activity. Megaport emerged as the top performer with a 69.4% surge following major contract wins, while Tuas saw its market value collapse by 65.0% after the termination of its M1 Limited acquisition.

### New Spectrum Taxes: Why “Business As Usual” is a Perilous Assumption
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/new-spectrum-taxes-perilous-assumption
- Published: 2026-05-22
- Author: Venture Insights

The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has finalised a $7.32 billion spectrum license renewal fee, a decision that has met with significant industry resistance. This report analyzes the disconnect between regulatory pricing models and the emerging reality of the digital economy, where hyperscale cloud providers are outspending traditional telcos. It explores the risks of a backward-looking regulatory approach in an environment of accelerating AI disruption, identifies three potential scenarios for the future of Australia's digital infrastructure, and  argues that the decision reflects a lack of joined-up policy thinking about the future digital economy in Australia.

### Telco Sector Surges in April 2026 as Megaport and Codan Deliver Major Contract and Guidance Upgrades
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-april-2026-commentary
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

### Australian Data Centre Interconnect Market: Set to Boom with AI Surge
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-data-centre-interconnect-market-ai-surge
- Published: 2026-04-24
- Author: David Kennedy

Australia’s connectivity needs are unique, driven by the dual necessity of internal metropolitan efficiency and external global reach. The Data Centre to Data Centre Interconnect (DCI) market serves as the nervous system of our digital economy, facilitating the exchange of data between geographically dispersed facilities. This report examines the service portfolio, demand catalysts, competitive landscape, and economic valuations of the Australian DCI sector through to 2030, and how a range of service providers should position themselves for growth.

### ANZ Mobile Market Structure: Brand Segmentation Complete as Tech Frontiers and Regulatory Futures Beckon
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-mobile-market-structure-2026
- Published: 2026-04-16
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian mobile telecommunications market in 2026 is characterised by a sophisticated three-tiered hierarchy comprising premium flagship brands, operator-owned sub-brands, and independent MVNOs. New Zealand’s market is, by comparison, simpler. Consumer trust and persistent cost-of-living pressures remain the primary drivers of subscriber volatility and segment movement.

### Telstra’s Mobile Price Hikes a Bitter Pill - For A Healthier Industry
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-mobile-price-hikes-2026
- Published: 2026-03-27
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the 2024–2026 surge in Australian mobile pricing, led by Telstra’s May 2026 adjustments. It explores competitive responses, the strategic role of sub-brands like Boost and amaysim, and the fiscal imperative of price increases to sustain infrastructure investment amidst rising capital costs and stagnant returns.

### Hyperscale Data Centre Growth Threatens ANZ Telco Revenues and Digital Sovereignty
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/hyperscale-data-centre-growth-anz-telco
- Published: 2026-02-23
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the rapid evolution of the Australian and New Zealand data centre sectors as they transition from local colocation markets into critical nodes for global AI computation. It analyzes the macro drivers of this growth, including the emergence of 'AI Factories' and the impact of sovereign risk regulations. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the strategic threat to domestic telecommunications providers as capital-rich hyperscale operators increasingly invest in their own physical infrastructure, potentially eroding local digital sovereignty.

### Australia & New Zealand Wholesale Forecast 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-wholesale-telecom-forecast-2025-2030
- Published: 2026-01-12
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the wholesale telecommunications markets in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) for the period FY25 to FY30. It examines the transition from a regulation-driven landscape to one defined by capital efficiency and structural separation. The analysis covers key product dynamics including wholesale voice, data and internet, MVNO, national broadband networks, and passive infrastructure such as towers and ducts across both geographies.

### Telco-Hyperscale Strategies - Managing Telco Risk at the Network Edge
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-hyperscale-strategies-network-edge-risk
- Published: 2025-12-12
- Author: David Kennedy

As telecommunications operators transition to GenAI-enabled edge networks, they face a critical choice between rapid agility through hyperscaler partnerships and long-term autonomy. This report provides a four-layer framework to audit hyperscaler lock-in mechanisms across infrastructure, platform, application, and data planes. It analyzes four primary partnership archetypes—from sovereign enablers to deep core transformations—and offers actionable recommendations for Tier 1 and Tier 2/3 operators to maintain control over their customer relationships and infrastructure.

### Time to Abolish the Regional Broadband Scheme?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/abolish-regional-broadband-scheme-levy
- Published: 2025-11-27
- Author: David Kennedy

News has emerged today that the Minister for Communications has approved an ACCC recommendation to reduce the Regional Broadband Levy from $8.46 to only $2.17 per month per broadband line for 2025-26. Despite its name, the Levy is actually paid by nbn Co’s urban fibre infrastructure competitors. In FY24, these competitors paid $25.5 million in levies under the Regional Broadband Scheme (RBS) that were transferred to nbn Co to support its regional fixed wireless and satellite networks, all in the name of competitive neutrality. The revised levy will bring down that amount considerably. At the same time, some exemptions to the levy expired at the end of FY25 that will bring the total up. But even taking that into account, we think that the new level will be around $13 million. This amount is a rounding error in nbn Co’s accounts. Yet the Scheme requires the involvement of the Department of Infrastructure, the ACCC and the ACMA, not to mention regulatory staff at every significant fixed broadband infrastructure provider in the country. This is a great example of a ‘nuisance tax’. If the Government were minded to heed industry calls for streamlined regulation, then the removal of the RBS and the associated levy would be an excellent place to start.

### TPG's Strategic Shift to Telecom Sustainability
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-strategic-shift-telecom-sustainability
- Published: 2025-11-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This brief looks into the strategic shift of TPG Telecom towards an asset-light business model, and how this transition can improve return on investment and shareholder value following its significant infrastructure divestitures. Recent moves, including a $3 billion capital return strategy and a proposed Reinvestment Plan, highlight TPG's commitment to enhancing financial flexibility and engaging investors. But with the backdrop of stagnant industry revenues and pressures from regulatory bodies, there are challenges ahead, particularly regarding future infrastructure agreements and pricing reviews. The competitive landscapes in both Australia and New Zealand further underscore the necessity for innovation and strategic realignments amongst telecommunications operators to thrive amid evolving market dynamics.

### Telco-Hyperscale Strategies - Balancing Risks and Opportunities in Core Network Outsourcing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-hyperscale-core-network-outsourcing-strategies
- Published: 2025-11-07
- Author: David Kennedy

The convergence of the software-defined core network architecture with the dominance of hyperscale cloud providers in automation and artificial intelligence (AI) has forced telecommunications operators to a strategic crossroads.

### Australia B2B Fixed Services Forecast 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-b2b-fixed-services-forecast-2025
- Published: 2025-10-22
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian B2B fixed services market, encompassing business voice, connectivity, and related services, is projected to reach $7.501 billion by FY30, growing at a 1.6% CAGR, which is a modest improvement from recent years. Legacy fixed voice and IP-VPN services will continue to decline, but more slowly. Conversely, IP voice, Ethernet and Internet connectivity, and network services will drive medium-term growth. Enterprise segment revenues will grow at 2.0% CAGR, while voice-heavy SMBs will see lower growth of 0.8% due to legacy voice decline. The Data & Internet market will grow at 0.7% CAGR, with Ethernet and Internet gains offsetting IP-VPN losses. Network services are expected to grow at 3.0% CAGR.

### State of the Australian Telecommunications Industry: Telco at a Crossroads
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/state-australian-telecommunications-industry-crossroads
- Published: 2025-10-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This is a speech delivered at CommsDay Wholesale Congress, Melbourne, 14 October 2025.

### FY25 Results - Challengers Aussie Broadband and Superloop Lead Australian Industry Growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fy25-results-aussie-broadband-superloop-growth
- Published: 2025-10-04
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian telecommunications landscape was reshaped in FY25 as challenger brands Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB) and Superloop (ASX: SLC) delivered explosive growth, significantly increasing their market share and putting incumbents on notice. Aussie Broadband cemented its scale, with revenues surging 18.7% to nearly $1.2 billion, driven by a diversified strategy and the successful integration of Symbio. Superloop, while smaller, demonstrated remarkable operating leverage, with revenue climbing 31% to $546.5 million and underlying EBITDA skyrocketing 70% to $92.2 million. Both companies aggressively grew their NBN customer base, with Aussie Broadband reaching an 8.4% market share and Superloop hitting 6.6%, signalling a clear and accelerating shift in consumer and wholesale preferences.

### FY25 Results - Niche Tech Specialists Redefine Value and Growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fy25-results-niche-tech-specialists
- Published: 2025-10-04
- Author: David Kennedy

The FY25 reporting season has illuminated a clear trend: companies sidestepping commoditised telecommunications are creating significant value by building defensible, high-growth niches. This report analyses the performance of a diverse group of specialists - Megaport, Macquarie Technology, Codan, Data#3, Spirit Technology, Pentanet, and others - showcasing how technology-led differentiation is driving superior returns. Key results, such as Megaport's 20% growth in Annual Recurring Revenue to $243.8 million and Spirit Technology's successful "cyber-first" turnaround to an $11.0 million EBITDA, underscore a long-term strategic shift. Value is migrating from basic connectivity to sophisticated services like AI-ready data centres, cybersecurity, and Network as a Service (NaaS).

### ANZ Telco-Cloud Market Overview - Partnership Strategies
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-telco-cloud-partnership-strategies
- Published: 2025-10-01
- Author: David Kennedy

The major Australian telecommunications operators have forged deep, multi-faceted relationships with the three global cloud hyperscalers. These alliances encompass internal transformation, joint product development, and integrated go-to-market strategies. Each operator has adopted a distinct approach, reflecting its market position, strategic priorities, and technical legacy.

### FY25 results - Australian telco industry splits into four camps
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fy25-results-australian-telco-industry-camps
- Published: 2025-09-18
- Author: David Kennedy

The 2025 financial year confirmed a great divergence in Australian telecommunications, where the sector's growth was overwhelmingly driven by challengers leveraging wholesale contracts and M&A to gain scale. While incumbents like Telstra and TPG focused on cost discipline and shareholder returns, challengers such as Aussie Broadband and Superloop reshaped the competitive landscape, transforming into platform "enablers" for other large brands. This has shifted the primary battleground from direct retail competition to the wholesale market, with some niche specialists also finding success by offering differentiated, high-value technology services rather than commoditised connectivity.

### FY25 results - ANZ incumbents refocus on connectivity and profitability
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-telco-incumbents-fy25-results-analysis
- Published: 2025-09-18
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australasian telecommunications incumbents - Telstra, Optus, TPG, Spark, and Chorus - posted resilient FY25 results amidst a challenging economic landscape. While facing headwinds from inflationary pressures and intense competition, the incumbents demonstrated a clear focus on core connectivity, disciplined cost management, and strategic portfolio adjustments. Mobile subscriber growth remained a key theme, with Telstra and Optus showing strong performance. Spark and TPG undertook significant transformation programs, divesting non-core assets to simplify their businesses and fortify their balance sheets. Chorus continued its steady transition to an all-fibre network, with a clear strategy to drive uptake and manage the decline of its legacy copper business. Overall, the sector is reshaping for a future defined by AI, 5G, and ever-increasing data demand.

### ANZ LEOSat competition - Vocus aggregates while Optus challenges
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-leosat-competition-vocus-optus
- Published: 2025-09-05
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian and New Zealand satellite markets are undergoing a fundamental shift as traditional geostationary arrangements are challenged by LEO constellations. This report analyzes how Vocus is positioning itself as a terrestrial partner and aggregator for global operators like Starlink and Telesat, while Optus is investing in vertically-integrated sovereign infrastructure. The analysis covers technical advancements in software-defined payloads, inter-satellite laser links, and the strategic implications for government and enterprise segments.

### ANZ Telco-cloud market overview - benefits and risks of co-opetition
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-telco-cloud-market-overview-coopetition
- Published: 2025-08-28
- Author: David Kennedy

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the ANZ telco-cloud market, focusing on the strategic alliances between major telecommunications operators and global hyperscale cloud providers. It analyzes the market structure, characterized by high concentration in both sectors, and explores the benefits and risks of 'co-opetition.' The analysis highlights how telcos are becoming increasingly dependent on cloud-native architectures while hyperscalers capture a growing share of industry revenue through vertical integration and massive infrastructure investments.

### NBN Co's Accelerated Speed Tiers - De-Risking Broadband Through Fibre Investment
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-co-accelerated-speed-tiers-fibre-investment
- Published: 2025-08-21
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines NBN Co's strategic decision to accelerate wholesale speed tiers and introduce multi-gigabit services starting September 2025. It analyzes the competitive pressure from Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and alternative fibre providers that prompted these changes. Furthermore, the report explores the technical and regulatory challenges ahead, specifically regarding in-home equipment limitations and marketing transparency, while positioning fibre as the essential infrastructure for an AI-driven future.

### ANZ LEOSat’s Next Wave: Market Entrants, New Capabilities, and Sovereign Imperatives
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-leosat-next-wave-sovereign-imperatives
- Published: 2025-08-11
- Author: David Kennedy

The ANZ LEOSat market is on the cusp of a significant shift as the current duopoly of Starlink and OneWeb faces competition from well-funded entrants like Amazon’s Project Kuiper and Telesat Lightspeed. This report details the strategic partnerships, such as the NBN Co-Amazon deal, and the emergence of sovereign initiatives like Optus’ SWIFT project. It analyzes how these developments will intensify competition, address national security concerns through data sovereignty, and provide diverse connectivity options for regional, enterprise, and government sectors through 2028.

### A New Horizon for TPG - From Infrastructure Owner to Mobile-Centric Innovator
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-vocus-divestment-mobile-pivot
- Published: 2025-08-08
- Author: David Kennedy

TPG Telecom’s recent sale of its fibre assets and enterprise fixed business to Vocus Group for $5.25 billion marks a pivotal strategic realignment. This divestment, which includes net cash proceeds of approximately $4.7 billion, enables TPG to pivot from a capital-intensive infrastructure owner to a mobile-centric, capital-light service provider. The move is underpinned by a robust capital management plan, which includes a significant debt reduction of up to $2.4 billion and a pro rata capital return to shareholders of up to $3 billion. The strategy is designed to create a simpler, more efficient business, focused on leveraging key infrastructure-sharing agreements to drive growth in the competitive mobile and home internet markets.

### ANZ LEOSat commercial offerings - price-performance comparison shows clear segmentation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-leosat-commercial-offerings-comparison
- Published: 2025-07-30
- Author: David Kennedy

The ANZ LEOSat market is undergoing rapid commercial maturation, characterized by a distinct split between high-volume consumer offerings and high-value, customized enterprise solutions. While Starlink dominates the direct-to-consumer and mobility segments with standardized pricing, OneWeb has established a de-risked B2B wholesale model through local partners. This analysis compares pricing, hardware costs, and service level agreements across major providers including Telstra, Vocus, and 2degrees, highlighting how incumbents are using LEO partnerships as strategic defensive tools against market disruption.

### The ANZ LEOSat market takes shape
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-leosat-market-takes-shape
- Published: 2025-07-24
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the rapidly evolving Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market in Australia and New Zealand. It details the competitive dynamics between dominant players like SpaceX's Starlink and Eutelsat OneWeb, while mapping the complex web of partnerships formed by incumbent telecommunications providers. The analysis explores how LEO technology is disrupting legacy geostationary services and creating new opportunities in Direct-to-Mobile (D2M) and enterprise connectivity, alongside the strategic imperatives for sovereign data control.

### Telco AI will help address demands of industry investors
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-ai-investor-demands-roic
- Published: 2025-07-17
- Author: David Kennedy

The telecommunications industry is currently experiencing rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI). This shift is moving networks and services towards being inherently autonomous, adaptive, and deeply integrated into our digital lives. For telecommunications operators, AI presents opportunities to enhance customer experience, drive operational excellence, and optimise network investment. It is also an opportunity to create new value for investors. Low Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) has been an industry bugbear for years. If AI can deliver on its promise, then the Industry will find it easier to attract continued investment needed to underpin national digital transformation.

### Australia Video Entertainment Outlook 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-video-entertainment-outlook-2025
- Published: 2025-07-16
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the evolving landscape of the Australian video entertainment market, providing detailed revenue and subscriber forecasts from FY24 to FY29. It examines the shift from traditional broadcast and physical media toward SVOD and digital platforms. The analysis covers key segments including Pay-TV, SVOD, TVOD/EST, Physical Media, and Cinema, highlighting the impact of market saturation, cost-of-living pressures, and the strategic pivot toward profitability and ad-supported tiers by major global and local operators.

### Fibre versus FWA in the AI age
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fibre-versus-fwa-ai-age
- Published: 2025-07-11
- Author: David Kennedy

This report provides a strategic analysis of New Zealand's fixed broadband market, repositioning the competitive dynamic between fibre and FWA within the context of the impending AI revolution. Our central thesis is that the current market, driven by a price-performance trade-off, represents a temporary state of play. The "good enough" value proposition of FWA is predicated on legacy usage patterns that will be rendered obsolete by AI-driven applications.

### Customer Hardship and the AI Paradox: Navigating the Customer Service Tipping Point
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/customer-hardship-ai-paradox-telco-complaints
- Published: 2025-07-04
- Author: David Kennedy

Australia’s telecommunications sector is facing a confluence of critical challenges that are testing service delivery and provider resilience. TIO complaints data reveals a significant spike in customers experiencing financial hardship, exposing systemic inflexibility in provider support systems. Concurrently, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events is straining physical network infrastructure, driving service reliability complaints. As the industry turns to Artificial Intelligence (AI) for efficiency, it confronts a critical paradox: the risk that automation could exacerbate the very human-centric service issues, like handling vulnerable customers, that providers are already struggling to manage effectively. This systemic inflexibility represents a significant service and reputational risk, particularly as the industry pivots towards automated solutions.

### Australia Consumer Mobile Forecast 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-consumer-mobile-forecast-2025
- Published: 2025-06-27
- Author: David Kennedy

All forecasting is based on a June year end.
All dollar amounts are AU$.

### Australia Consumer Fixed Telecommunications Forecast 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-consumer-fixed-telecom-forecast-2025
- Published: 2025-06-20
- Author: David Kennedy

All forecasting is based on a June year end.
All dollar amounts are AU$.

### Telstra’s Connected Future 30 drives a new industry narrative
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-connected-future-30-strategy-analysis-2
- Published: 2025-05-28
- Author: David Kennedy

Telstra’s Investor Day announcement of its new Connected Future 30 Strategy is a watershed for the telecommunications industry. But this is not because there is anything new about AI technology or digital infrastructure. Telstra’s achievement is to craft these elements into a narrative of growth and innovation that sets a new bar for the industry, and challenges the perception the industry is turning into a commoditised utility. In many ways, this is a response to investors spooked by higher cost of capital who want a reason for confidence in the industry. This will require the rest of the industry to respond in kind. Indeed, the impact will extend beyond the industry into other industries where the systematic application of AI and programmable platforms is underway. But in the short term, Telstra’s competitors must respond with similar strategies, or find themselves on the wrong side of investor (and customer) sentiment.

### New Zealand Consumer Fixed Forecast 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-consumer-fixed-forecast-2025
- Published: 2025-05-15
- Author: David Kennedy

This report provides a detailed analysis and five-year forecast for the New Zealand consumer fixed telecommunications market. It examines the diverging paths of the fixed broadband and voice-only segments, highlighting a 3.4% CAGR for broadband revenue against a sharp 27.4% decline in standalone voice. The analysis explores key market drivers including CPI-linked price adjustments, the phase-out of copper infrastructure, and the competitive dynamics between incumbent operators and rising challengers in the energy and satellite sectors.

### New Zealand Consumer Mobile Forecast 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-consumer-mobile-forecast-2025
- Published: 2025-05-15
- Author: David Kennedy

The lack of detailed operational data from privately held telecommunications companies that are now a majority of the market makes a full bottom-up approach to the historical data set impracticable.
Our historical data set now relies heavily on the Commerce Commission’s (ComCom’s) annual monitoring reports and its annual telecommunications survey for connection, revenue, and technology data.
We rely on StatsNZ projections for population and households, and RBNZ projections for CPI and economic growth.
All forecasting is based on a June year end.
All dollar amounts are NZ$.

### The Global AI Governance Power Struggle - Implications for Australia and New Zealand
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/global-ai-governance-power-struggle-anz
- Published: 2025-05-02
- Author: David Kennedy

Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer just a technological advancement—it is a geopolitical battleground shaping the future of global power, economic dominance, and societal values. The United States and China have adopted starkly different approaches to AI governance, with the U.S. shifting from Biden’s (2023) focus on AI safety and ethics to Trump’s (2025) deregulated, industry-first AI model, while China continues to develop state-controlled, cost-efficient AI systems like DeepSeek R1. For Australia and New Zealand, these developments present a critical challenge: how to harness AI for innovation while mitigating risks to privacy, security, and national sovereignty. This report explores the contrasting AI policies of the U.S. and China, the strategic risks posed by deregulation, and what Australia and New Zealand must consider in crafting their own AI governance frameworks.

### ANZ FWA growth challenges NBN and UFB
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-fwa-growth-challenges-nbn-ufb
- Published: 2025-04-11
- Author: David Kennedy

Australia’s NBN and New Zealand’s UFB providers face rising competition from various sources, including competitive fibre, LEO satellites, and MNO fixed wireless providers. In Australia FWA growth is picking up, continuing to pressure NBN. A 10% FWA share of broadband by FY28 remains plausible. In the more mature New Zealand market, penetration is higher at around 20% of the broadband market. Spark data shows that its FWA growth now approximates population growth. However, One NZ and 2degrees’ relatively low share of FWA connections suggest there may be more growth available. The rise of FWA threatens NBN and Chorus with subscriber losses, pricing pressure, and potential asset underutilisation, particularly in price-sensitive or urban markets. However, their fixed-line networks offer unmatched reliability and capacity, creating opportunities to target premium customers, support FWA backhaul, and drive economic benefits. By adapting pricing, accelerating fibre, and exploring partnerships, both operators can mitigate risks and carve out a complementary role alongside FWA in Australia and New Zealand’s broadband markets.

### Australian NBN discounting drives challenger growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-nbn-discounting-challenger-growth
- Published: 2025-04-04
- Author: David Kennedy

We saw significant re-balancing of retail broadband prices in July 2024, driven by nbn Co’s changes to its wholesale price structure (see our report ). High speed plans were down, and low speed plans up. Since then we have seen price stability, with Belong and TPG/iiNet the only retail service providers (RSPs) to lift prices. These uniform price rises were more of a re-basing than a re-balancing. But headline price stability disguises a trend towards heavy discounting, especially of plans at 100 Mbps or higher. This was led by Optus, Superloop, and Vocus (Dodo) but more operators are now joining the fray. The overall result is that the smaller challengers are attracting more customers.

### Australia’s Response to U.S. Transactional Trade Strategies
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-response-us-transactional-trade
- Published: 2025-03-28
- Author: David Kennedy

The U.S. has adopted an increasingly transactional approach to trade and diplomacy, leveraging tariffs, regulatory pressure, and unpredictable policy shifts to extract short-term gains. This report analyses the implications of this approach for Australia and proposes a set of firm counterstrategies, including targeted taxation the advertising, intellectual property (IP) and license revenue of global digital platforms. By maintaining a strong diplomatic stance and engaging with international partners, Australia can safeguard its economic and strategic interests while ensuring a balanced and sustainable trade relationship with the U.S.

### USO reform - the Budget dog that didn’t bark
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/uso-reform-budget-dog-not-barking
- Published: 2025-03-27
- Author: David Kennedy

Abstract: This week’s Federal budget suggests stability for the USO program to the end of the decade. This is despite the impact of LEO satellite services in regional areas, which the Government  into the existing USO policy framework. In our view, this is a lost opportunity for some productive deregulation in the sector. The growing irrelevance of fixed voice and the increasing ubiquity of broadband options such as LEOSat suggest that the USO will become an obsolete and costly drag on innovation. The USO is struggling for relevance in a market that is offering more and more telecommunications options.

### The tariff debate ignores Australia’s digital dependence
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tariff-debate-ignores-digital-dependence
- Published: 2025-03-14
- Author: David Kennedy

Australia’s tariff debate is missing the real issue. Our dependence on US technology and digital services is the real economic vulnerability, not steel and aluminium. While we fixate on minor tariffs, Australia imports A$88.2 billion from the US while exporting only A$37.5 billion, with IP charges and tech services alone costing A$25 billion annually. Meanwhile, US tech giants continue raising prices, locking Australian businesses and telcos into an expensive dependency. If Australia wants to correct the trade imbalance, it must target digital imports, invest in local tech, and break free from the licensing trap before it’s too late.

### TPG network sharing deal is lifting mobile competition
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-network-sharing-mobile-competition
- Published: 2025-03-06
- Author: David Kennedy

TPG’s full year results announcement included remarks on the emerging impact of TPG’s recently activated network sharing deal with Optus. TPG reported significant boosts in prepaid and postpaid signups on the strength of its expanded network coverage and depth. We expect Telstra to be most affected by TPG’s new strength.

### Mobile USO is obsolete before it has begun
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/mobile-uso-obsolete-before-begun
- Published: 2025-02-28
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian Government has announced that, for the first time, mobile will be subject to an Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation (UOMO). The aim is to ensure that LEO satellite technology is deployed to expand voice, text, and ultimately data connectivity as widely as possible. In our view, this initiative goes in the wrong direction. The emergence of commercial options for regional telecommunications makes universal service policies less relevant. In fact, the opportunity to unwind obsolete USO arrangements is being missed.

### No surprises in Telstra’s improved 1H25 results
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-1h25-results-margin-recovery
- Published: 2025-02-20
- Author: David Kennedy

Telstra’s 1H25 results were close to guidance. We see broadly stable trends in segment revenues, and a profitability boost from heavy cost cutting in response to last year’s slump. This has led to a recovery in profit margins which allows Telstra to justify ongoing network capex.

### DeepSeek’s Disruption – AI, Geopolitics, and Market Shifts
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/deepseek-disruption-ai-geopolitics-market-shifts
- Published: 2025-02-10
- Author: David Kennedy

DeepSeek has disrupted the global AI landscape, demonstrating that high-performance models can be developed at a fraction of the cost of Western alternatives. This breakthrough has triggered a US$1 trillion stock market sell-off, raising critical investment, regulatory, and national security concerns. For Australia’s TMT and investment sectors, DeepSeek’s rapid rise presents both opportunities and risks. While lower AI costs could accelerate adoption across telecommunications, digital media, and automation, cybersecurity concerns are mounting. CyberCX has warned that DeepSeek may be subject to Chinese government control, and Australia, the US and the UK have all restricted access on government devices.

### ACCC broadband stats show LEOSat potential - but also problems
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/accc-broadband-stats-leosat-potential-problems
- Published: 2024-12-12
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the ACCC’s December 2024 Measuring Broadband Australia report, which benchmarks satellite broadband for the first time. While Starlink demonstrates high average download speeds, it exhibits significant performance variation and capacity limits during the 5pm to 10pm busy period. The findings suggest that while LEOSat technology has the potential to shoulder remote communication burdens and USO obligations, the current constellation requires further expansion to provide the consistency needed for universal service provision.

### Tasman Ring cable will help integrate Australia/New Zealand data centre markets
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tasman-ring-cable-au-nz-integration
- Published: 2024-12-05
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the announcement of the Tasman Ring cable network by Chorus and Datagrid. The 6,000 km system will connect major hubs in Australia and New Zealand, providing up to 540Tbps of capacity. This infrastructure is critical for integrating the two markets, enabling load shifting for AI workloads, and leveraging New Zealand's renewable energy to meet the skyrocketing demand for digital services and cloud computing across the Indo-Pacific region.

### How Bosun subsea cable and data centre investment will shape Australia’s Indo-Pacific future
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/bosun-subsea-cable-australia-digital-hub
- Published: 2024-11-29
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Australia's emergence as a pivotal digital hub in the Indo-Pacific, driven by Google’s Bosun subsea cable and a projected $26 billion investment in data centre infrastructure. With data centre capacity expected to grow from 1,350 MW in 2024 to 3,100 MW by 2030, Australia is positioning itself as a secure gateway for data traffic between the United States, Asia, and the Pacific Islands, offering a resilient alternative to traditional routes through the South China Sea.

### NBN anticipates big lift in NBN connections
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-anticipates-connection-growth-lift
- Published: 2024-11-22
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses NBN Co's Consultation Paper 1 for the FY27-FY29 regulatory cycle, highlighting a projected acceleration in connections. Despite NBN Co gaining only 34,000 connections in FY23 and 45,000 in FY24, the new strategy assumes a significant lift in greenfields FTTP and fixed wireless take-up. The analysis questions the feasibility of these assumptions given the current 15% of households without fixed broadband and increasing competition from mobile network operators and LEO satellite providers.

### Optus HY results driven by cost cutting and ARPU growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-hy-results-arpu-growth-cost-cutting
- Published: 2024-11-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Optus's half-year results for the period April to September 2024. While total revenue remained virtually flat at $4.022bn, the operator achieved a significant 58% rise in EBIT through aggressive cost management and ARPU growth. However, Optus continues to lag behind peers Telstra and TPG in mobile service revenue growth, and faces intensifying competition in the enterprise satellite market from LEO providers like Starlink, with satellite revenues falling from $200m in FY20 to $140m in FY24.

### Trump win may see digital platforms contribution to USO
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/trump-win-digital-platforms-uso-contribution
- Published: 2024-11-08
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the potential regulatory shift at the FCC following a Trump administration win, specifically focusing on Brendan Carr's 'Project 2025' agenda. Key priorities include mandating digital platform contributions to the Universal Service Fund (USF), banning high-risk Chinese apps like TikTok, and reforming Section 230 to address perceived censorship. The brief highlights a $3 billion funding gap in the 'rip and replace' program for Chinese equipment and explores the integration of LEO satellites like Starlink into universal service provision frameworks.

### Starlink viability will move the USO debate forward
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/starlink-viability-uso-debate-anz
- Published: 2024-10-31
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the impact of Starlink's financial and technical milestones on the Universal Service Obligation (USO) debate in Australia and New Zealand. With Starlink projected to generate US$600 million in positive cashflow in 2024, the primary objection regarding long-term viability is fading. The introduction of direct-to-cell (DTC) technology, capable of delivering 10Mbps to standard handsets, further positions LEO satellites as a credible alternative to traditional terrestrial infrastructure for regional and remote connectivity.

### Digital Infrastructure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/digital-infrastructure-valuation-performance-october-2024
- Published: 2024-10-31
- Author: Venture Insights

This report provides a comprehensive performance and valuation benchmark for the digital infrastructure sector as of 31 October 2024. It tracks share price momentum across 1-month and 12-month horizons, highlighting Adisyn's 260% annual surge. The analysis details valuation metrics including EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA for FY24 and FY25, mapping these against growth multiples to identify market leaders and laggards in the Australian and global data center and telecommunications infrastructure landscape.

### Australia's 600MHz digital spectrum dividend process has years to run
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-600mhz-spectrum-dividend-delay
- Published: 2024-10-25
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Government's recent announcement regarding the exploration of future broadcasting arrangements for the 600MHz UHF band. While the 2020 Media Reform Green Paper envisioned releasing up to 84MHz of spectrum for mobile communications, significant policy and technical barriers remain. With 15% of Australian households still lacking fixed broadband and 26% never using BVOD, a rapid transition from terrestrial broadcast is unlikely. The delay of this billion-dollar auction is viewed as a strategic benefit for telecommunications operators currently facing low returns on 5G investment.

### Comparing LEO Satellites, 5G, Fiber Broadband, and Hybrid Networks
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/comparing-leo-5g-fiber-hybrid-networks-australia
- Published: 2024-10-21
- Author: David Kennedy

As connectivity becomes critical for business growth in remote and underserved markets, understanding the key technologies driving this change is essential. This explainer summarises the latest advances in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks, 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), fibre optic broadband, and hybrid models that combine multiple technologies. Learn how global players like Starlink and Amazon's Project Kuiper are transforming rural Australia alongside Telstra, Optus, and NBN Co.

### The Future of Connectivity in Australia: Comparing LEO Satellites, 5G, Fiber Broadband, and Hybrid Networks
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/future-connectivity-australia-leo-5g-fiber
- Published: 2024-10-21
- Author: David Kennedy

As connectivity becomes critical for business intelligence and growth in remote and underserved markets, understanding the key technologies driving this change is essential. This report analyses the performance, cost, and future potential of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks, 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), and fiber optic broadband. With Starlink already securing over 200,000 Australian users, the landscape is shifting toward hybrid models that combine satellite resilience with traditional terrestrial infrastructure to serve regional Australia.

### TPG/Vocus deal improves returns to Australian telecommunications investment
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-vocus-fibre-deal-analysis
- Published: 2024-10-15
- Author: David Kennedy

TPG Telecom has entered a binding Share Purchase Agreement to sell its fibre network infrastructure and Enterprise, Government, and Wholesale (EGW) fixed business, including Vision Network, to Vocus Group for $5.25 billion. This transaction reflects a broader network consolidation trend in response to low returns on invested capital in Australia's telecommunications industry. The deal positions Vocus as a significant player in enterprise connectivity while allowing TPG to focus on mobile operations and capital efficiency.

### Is telecommunications approaching its end-game?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telecommunications-approaching-end-game-analysis
- Published: 2024-10-11
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the thesis that current fibre and mobile technologies have reached a point of sufficiency for most consumer needs, suggesting that future industry growth will be structurally limited. With data usage growth expected to plateau by the end of the decade and 5G failing to generate significant new revenue streams, the telecommunications sector must shift its focus from performance iterations to a low-cost utility model. The analysis explores the implications for investment, pricing, and regulation in a maturing market.

### Optus outage inquiry raises mandatory roaming spectre
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-outage-mandatory-roaming-spectre
- Published: 2024-10-04
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Senate inquiry's recommendations following the 2023 Optus network outage, specifically the proposal for mandatory mobile roaming during large-scale failures. While the ACCC previously found temporary roaming technically feasible for emergencies, the Senate Committee's new proposal extends this to non-emergency loss of service. This shift threatens the commercial differentiation derived from infrastructure investment and could lead to a 'creeping expansion' of roaming requirements that undermines the incentives for MNOs to expand regional coverage.

### FWA keeps up the pressure on fixed broadband
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fwa-pressure-fixed-broadband-growth
- Published: 2024-09-27
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the resurgence of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) in Australia, where subscriber growth reached its highest level since mid-2022. Following a slowdown in 2023, the market grew to 549,000 services by June 2024, driven by NBN wholesale price increases and aggressive MNO promotions. The brief forecasts that FWA could reach 900,000 services by FY28, placing significant competitive pressure on NBN Co's lower-tier plans and potentially triggering new regulatory interventions regarding the RBS levy and separation requirements.

### Five-year Outlook for Telco Market 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/five-year-telco-market-outlook-2024
- Published: 2024-09-25
- Author: David Kennedy

This report reviews the technology and market trends shaping the telco industry in Australia and New Zealand over a five-year horizon. It identifies a critical revenue gap as 5G consumer growth remains limited, forcing operators to pivot toward enterprise use cases and structural separation. With real ARPUs in long-term decline and interest rates lifting the weighted average cost of capital, the industry faces intense pressure to improve return on invested capital through aggressive efficiency programs and infrastructure divestment.

### ANZ business fixed market to remain under pressure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-business-fixed-market-pressure-forecast
- Published: 2024-09-20
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the 2024-2028 outlook for the Australian and New Zealand business fixed telecommunications markets. It highlights a market under significant pressure from the commoditisation of connectivity and the rapid decline of legacy services like PSTN and IP-VPN. While certain segments like IP voice and managed services show growth, total market revenues remain sluggish, with Australia expected to reach A$7.124bn by FY28 at a modest 1.2% CAGR.

### Australia B2B Fixed Forecast 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-b2b-fixed-forecast-2024
- Published: 2024-09-17
- Author: David Kennedy

The Australian B2B fixed services market, encompassing business voice, connectivity, and related services, is projected to reach $7.192 billion by FY28, growing at a modest 0.9% CAGR. Legacy fixed voice services will decline rapidly, while IP voice, Ethernet, Internet, and network services will drive medium-term growth. The Enterprise fixed services market is estimated at $4.518 billion in FY23, growing at 1.2% CAGR. SMBs, recovering from the pandemic, will see limited growth due to legacy voice decline.

### ANZ enterprise mobility market has growth potential
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-enterprise-mobility-market-growth-forecast
- Published: 2024-09-13
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the 2024-2028 outlook for the Australian and New Zealand business mobility markets. While low economic growth impacted FY24 revenues, the market is poised for recovery with Australian B2B mobile services and hardware revenue projected to reach A$5.124bn at a 2.3% CAGR. New Zealand's retail market is expected to reach NZ$998 million. Growth is primarily driven by mobile handheld services, IoT connectivity, and managed mobility services as enterprises shift toward digital transformation and BYOD policies.

### Australia B2B Mobility Forecast 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-b2b-mobility-forecast-2024
- Published: 2024-09-11
- Author: David Kennedy

Total B2B mobile services and hardware revenue in Australia is projected to grow at a +2.3% CAGR over FY23/28, reaching $5.124 billion. Lower-than-expected FY24 ARPUs due to low economic growth and heightened competition contributed to lower growth in FY24. Stronger growth is anticipated from FY25 onwards. The SMB mobile market will grow at a 1.8% CAGR to $2.50 billion by FY28, while the enterprise segment will grow at a 2.8% CAGR to $2.629 billion, driven by increased IoT and managed mobility spending.

### New Zealand B2B Fixed Forecast 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-b2b-fixed-forecast-2024
- Published: 2024-09-09
- Author: David Kennedy

The total B2B fixed services market in New Zealand is projected to reach $949 million by FY28, contracting at -1.6% CAGR due to lower economic growth and the phase-out of legacy voice services by Chorus. Total B2B voice revenues are expected to fall at -15.3% 5Y CAGR to FY28. While the Data & Internet market will grow modestly at +0.1% 5Y CAGR, network services will expand at +2.8% CAGR, driven by digital transformation and SD-WAN adoption.

### Optus/TPG MOCN approval good for industry ROIC
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-tpg-mocn-approval-industry-roic
- Published: 2024-09-06
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the ACCC's decision not to oppose the regional mobile network and spectrum sharing agreement between Optus and TPG. The deal allows TPG access to 2,444 Optus regional sites, while Optus gains access to TPG's spectrum to increase data bandwidth. This arrangement is expected to improve the return on invested capital (ROIC) for both operators by reducing TPG's capex requirements and generating incremental wholesale revenue for Optus, while intensifying regional 5G competition for Telstra.

### Australia B2B IT Forecast and Outlook 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-b2b-it-forecast-2024
- Published: 2024-08-29
- Author: David Kennedy

The total IT services market in Australia is projected to grow at a 9.7% CAGR from FY23 to FY28, reaching $30.8 billion, driven by cloud services and cybersecurity. The UC&CC market will grow at a 4.0% CAGR, reaching $1.90 billion by 2027, with a shift towards cloud solutions. Cloud computing, the largest IT segment, will grow at an 11.0% CAGR to $21.1 billion, with SaaS leading. Key challenges include security, data privacy, and skilled staff shortages. The cybersecurity market will grow at an 8.1% CAGR to $7.8 billion, driven by Artificial Intelligence implementation and rising digitalisation of operations.

### Telstra mobile FY24 - up in consumer, down in enterprise
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-mobile-fy24-consumer-enterprise-analysis
- Published: 2024-08-23
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Telstra’s FY24 mobile results, highlighting a 4.5% increase in mobile revenue to $10,722 million and a 9.2% rise in underlying mobile EBITDA to $5,026 million. While retail mobile SIOs grew by 1.687 million to reach 24.2 million, the second half of the year showed signs of softening in the enterprise segment. The analysis explores how price increases have successfully driven profitability despite long-term real price declines in the Australian telecommunications sector.

### NBN FY24 results - enterprise growth pressures industry
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-fy24-results-enterprise-growth-pressures
- Published: 2024-08-16
- Author: David Kennedy

NBN Co achieved its FY24 guidance for both revenue and EBITDA, principally due to growth in its enterprise fibre business. Slow decline in its residential connections was not enough to prevent revenue growth of 4%. Its network upgrade program is steadily progressing, with 78% of the fixed line network now with access to Ultrafast wholesale services. The implications for NBN’s RSP customers are negative, as aggression in the enterprise market has depressed business service ARPUs across the industry.

### Where will new telco competition arise in ANZ?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-telco-competition-market-disruption
- Published: 2024-08-09
- Author: David Kennedy

The ANZ market is seeing growth amongst smaller MVNO and fixed broadband providers, and shares of incumbent sub-brands are growing too. This suggests there is still scope for market disruption by new entrants in the ANZ market, but this disruption is most likely to come from established brands with an existing distribution network. This will be harder to achieve in New Zealand than in Australia. The report analyzes how scale and adjacent market advantages are now the primary drivers of competitive pressure in the region.

### AU Consumer Broadband Update FY24
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/au-consumer-broadband-update-fy24
- Published: 2024-08-05
- Author: Heath Gibson

Households increasingly rely on digital services, with telecoms hardware and service prices falling relative to the general price level for over a decade. Despite this, spending on communication services has risen, reflecting their growing importance. This report analyses the fixed broadband strategies used by service providers to attract consumers. NBN pricing is a key determinant of retail price; recent NBN wholesale price changes have reordered the market. This report summarises how retail service providers have responded, and which customer acquisition strategies they are favouring.

### The RBS levy and wireless broadband competition
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/rbs-levy-wireless-broadband-competition
- Published: 2024-08-01
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report examines the potential impact of extending the Regional Broadband Scheme (RBS) levy to include 4G and 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) services. Currently, the RBS collects approximately $8.26 per month per service from fixed-line providers to fund unprofitable NBN areas. The ACCC has canvassed extending this to wireless providers to address market distortions, as retail NBN plans currently carry a $10 to $20 premium over equivalent FWA plans, potentially undermining the long-term funding base of the NBN.

### New Zealand B2B Mobility Forecast 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-b2b-mobility-forecast-2024
- Published: 2024-07-30
- Author: David Kennedy

Total B2B mobile services retail market in New Zealand (business and enterprise) will grow at +2.0% CAGR over FY23/28 to reach $998 million as the market returns to growth following a slower than expected FY24. This will be offset by faster growth in FY26 than we expected in our last forecast. Revenue is expected to grow across most mobile product lines, but with the strongest performance in mobile handheld services and IoT connectivity.

### Ofcom cracks down on inflation linked pricing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/ofcom-inflation-linked-pricing-crackdown
- Published: 2024-07-26
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report examines the UK telecom regulator Ofcom's decision to ban inflation-linked retail price rises, a practice that saw annual increases reach double digits by 2022. The new rules, effective January 2025, require providers to declare any mid-contract price rises upfront in absolute currency terms rather than percentages. The brief analyzes the implications of this regulatory shift for the UK market and assesses the likelihood of similar interventions by regulators in Australia and New Zealand.

### Australian Consumer Telco Pricing – Q4 FY24 Update
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-consumer-telco-pricing-q4-fy24
- Published: 2024-07-22
- Author: Heath Gibson

In the dynamic consumer telecommunications market, especially for prepaid mobile services, Q4 FY24 saw frequent price and promotion changes. Major providers like Optus (postpaid), Vodafone, and Lebara (prepaid) adjusted their offers significantly. TPG made notable alterations in the broadband sector, while other providers aligned their NBN pricing with NBN Co’s updates. Vodafone also reduced bundling discounts. This report, based on late June 2024 data, captures these developments. Updates since then, such as NBN pricing adjustments and Telstra’s mobile price increases, have been integrated into the analysis, reflecting the market’s ongoing evolution.

### EU FTTP trends - lessons for ANZ
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/eu-fttp-trends-lessons-anz
- Published: 2024-07-22
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report addresses trends in high-speed connectivity adoption in European and some other markets with ongoing investments in digital infrastructure and next generation of telecommunications technology. It covers recent developments and the state of connectivity overseas, particularly in the EU for fibre (and 5G) investments. There is a gap, particularly in pricing, between Europe and ANZ that arguably leads to lower FTTP takeup in these markets. Both Australia and New Zealand should consider taking steps to expand access to FTTP, but there will need to be significant commercial and policy change to make this happen.

### Is the greenfield broadband opportunity going to improve?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/greenfield-broadband-opportunity-housing-data
- Published: 2024-07-19
- Author: Heath Gibson

This brief examines the latest housing market data for dwelling commencements and approvals as a leading indicator for growth in the fixed broadband market. Higher growth in new developments would be more favourable for NBN’s fixed line competitors, such as Uniti and Gigacomm, as these areas are more contestable than established brownfield zones. The report also highlights NBN Co’s decision to discontinue weekly reporting, which will reduce visibility into its performance in the critical greenfield segment.

### Will AI reignite the ‘net neutrality’ and ‘fair share’ debates?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/ai-net-neutrality-fair-share-debate
- Published: 2024-07-12
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses whether the growth in artificial intelligence (AI) will reignite policy discussions regarding net neutrality and 'fair share' frameworks. It outlines the current regulatory landscape in the US, Europe, and ANZ, exploring scenarios where telcos charge for prioritised AI data. The brief highlights a shifting dynamic where consumer groups like ACCAN may align with telcos to advocate for contributions from global digital platforms to fund network investments and consumer protections.

### The prepaid ‘poverty premium’
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/prepaid-mobile-poverty-premium-analysis
- Published: 2024-07-05
- Author: Heath Gibson

Prepaid mobile services are often used as an example of a ‘poverty premium’. This brief explains the concept of the poverty premium and estimates the poverty premium and bulk buying discount for selected mobile plans. The poverty premium helps quantify the digital disadvantage faced by consumers experiencing poverty. It is therefore of interest to telcos, consumer advocates, and policy makers seeking to improve digital inclusion and the customer experience for people experiencing financial hardship.

### New Zealand B2B IT Forecast and Outlook 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-b2b-it-forecast-2024
- Published: 2024-07-02
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the growth and key drivers of the New Zealand IT market, comprising unified communications and contact centres (UC&CC), cloud services, and cybersecurity. It identifies business digitalisation, the shift to off-premises cloud services, and government policies as primary growth catalysts. Despite a revised GDP growth forecast suggesting slower IT growth in FY24 and early FY25, the report anticipates recovery by FY26, forecasting a total market value of NZ$5.3 billion by FY28.

### Time for ACCC to measure FWA and LEOSat performance
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/accc-fwa-leosat-performance-monitoring
- Published: 2024-06-28
- Author: Heath Gibson

The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) has released the latest results for its ‘Measuring Broadband Australia’ program. Service availability and outages are a focal point of the latest release. Most consumers are now achieving their plan speed although underperforming services, especially on FTTN, remain a concern. In this brief we examine these issues, and consider the case for expanding the ACCC’s measurement program to include technologies competing with NBN.

### Broadband’s evolving brand landscape
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/broadband-evolving-brand-landscape-amaysim-optus
- Published: 2024-06-21
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the strategic re-entry of Amaysim into the Australian fixed broadband market. Following a period of subscriber stagnation where Optus broadband numbers fell over three and a half years, the group is adopting a multi-brand strategy similar to Telstra and TPG. By leveraging Amaysim’s 1.5 million mobile subscribers and high brand affinity, Optus seeks to target specific consumer segments and drive growth in a fragmenting retail landscape underpinned by NBN resellers and white-label providers.

### What is Apple Intelligence?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/brief-what-is-apple-intelligence
- Published: 2024-06-14
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the launch of 'Apple Intelligence', a suite of AI capabilities integrated into iOS18. It examines the technical architecture of Apple's privacy-centric approach, including on-device processing and Private Cloud Compute (PPC). The brief evaluates the potential for these features to drive a meaningful increase in hardware upgrades, noting that the technology is currently restricted to the iPhone 15 Pro and higher, while addressing the challenge of low consumer trust in AI systems within the Australian market.

### LEOSats - the Australian policy state of play
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/leosats-australian-policy-state-of-play
- Published: 2024-06-07
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report examines the evolving policy landscape for Low Earth Orbit Satellites (LEOSats) in Australia following the 2024 Australasia Satellite Forum. It highlights the Federal government's focus on using LEOSats to meet the Universal Service Obligation (USO) and improve digital inclusion in remote areas. The brief details five key focus areas from the LEOSat Working Group, including direct-to-device (D2D) capabilities and emergency resilience, while noting that commercial integration with local operators remains critical for long-term success.

### Simplicity and scale is the endgame for telco enterprise
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/simplicity-scale-telco-enterprise-endgame
- Published: 2024-05-30
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the strategic reviews of Australia's largest telcos, Optus and Telstra, as they navigate declining enterprise performance. Optus has recorded an AU$546 million impairment against fixed access network assets, while Telstra is reducing its Network Applications and Services (NAS) product count by two-thirds. The brief explores how these moves toward simplification and scale aim to restore profitability and the resulting competitive implications for smaller providers like Aussie Broadband and Superloop in the Australian connectivity market.

### Ending CPI price rises – Telstra seeks “flexibility”
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-ending-cpi-price-rises-flexibility
- Published: 2024-05-24
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses Telstra's strategic pivot away from annual postpaid price increases linked to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Following a market announcement on 21 May 2024, Telstra is abandoning the predictable July price adjustment cycle in favor of 'flexibility.' The brief explores three potential scenarios driving this change: implementing above-CPI increases, deferring rises due to a weakening economy (3.6% CPI in March quarter), and responding to competitive dynamics to protect subscriber growth and market share.

### Optus – a challenging recovery
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-challenging-recovery-ceo-transition
- Published: 2024-05-17
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the strategic challenges facing Optus following a series of high-profile setbacks, including the 2022 cyberattack and the November 2023 network outage. It evaluates the appointment of Stephen Rue as the new CEO and examines three primary hurdles: restoring subscriber trust, managing a $540 million impairment in the Enterprise Fixed business, and addressing stagnant ARPU growth. The brief forecasts imminent mobile price increases as Optus seeks to align with competitors and offset rising wholesale costs.

### Entry level broadband and the digital divide
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/entry-level-broadband-digital-divide-accc
- Published: 2024-05-10
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the ACCC's increasing focus on the availability and affordability of entry-level NBN plans. With wholesale price increases of $2.45pm for Home Basic 1 and $2.24pm for Home Basic 2 effective from July 2024, regulators are concerned that RSPs may be withdrawing low-speed tiers or misrepresenting their capabilities to push consumers toward more expensive high-speed plans. The brief evaluates Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as a market alternative and discusses policy options like consumer vouchers to bridge the widening digital divide.

### The rise of industry-specific cloud platforms
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/rise-of-industry-specific-cloud-platforms
- Published: 2024-05-10
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses the shift from generic cloud computing to industry-specific (vertical) cloud platforms. While hyperscalers like AWS and Azure dominate the horizontal market, they struggle to meet niche regulatory and workflow requirements. This gap has allowed ANZ-born firms like WiseTech ($30B market cap) and TechnologyOne ($5B market cap) to thrive. The analysis outlines strategic recommendations for telecom operators, data centre providers, and hyperscalers to capture value in this evolving ecosystem.

### ANZ B2B ICT Decision Makers Survey 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-b2b-ict-survey-2024
- Published: 2024-05-07
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the 2024 ANZ B2B ICT Decision Makers Survey, revealing a shift toward fundamental priorities like cost-cutting and cybersecurity. With business confidence weakening in both Australia and New Zealand, 49% of NZ small businesses now cite reducing costs as a top priority. The report explores digital maturity, the persistence of hybrid work models, and the growing importance of ESG factors for large enterprises, while forecasting that cybersecurity will see the highest growth rate in ICT spending over the next year.

### Optus-TPG deal delivers ACCC vision for mobile
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-tpg-deal-accc-mobile-vision
- Published: 2024-05-03
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the regional mobile infrastructure sharing agreement between Optus and TPG Telecom. The deal allows TPG to access 2,444 Optus network sites, increasing its population coverage from 96% to 98.6%. The arrangement provides Optus with incremental cash to accelerate its regional 5G and backhaul rollout while licensing TPG's spectrum holdings to increase data bandwidth. This outcome validates the ACCC's previous decision to block the Telstra-TPG deal by fostering infrastructure-based competition.

### What comes next for sports media?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/what-comes-next-sports-media-australia
- Published: 2024-05-03
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the evolving landscape of sports media consumption in Australia based on the Social Research Centre’s 2023 survey. It highlights a significant transition from traditional free-to-air broadcast to online and on-demand platforms, with 51% of Australians consuming sports content weekly. The brief explores the decline of Pay-TV, the rise of ad-supported streaming tiers, and the critical role of anti-siphoning rules in maintaining the 'free' element of sports accessibility for consumers.

### The limits of ‘more for more’
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/limits-of-more-for-more-pricing
- Published: 2024-04-26
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the divergence between Australia's 3.6% annual CPI growth and the 1.1% rise in telecommunications equipment and services. It examines how major operators like Telstra and Optus utilize CPI-linked pricing mechanisms and the 'more for more' strategy to justify price hikes. The analysis suggests that as consumer data needs are increasingly met, the marginal value of additional data allowances is diminishing, potentially limiting the effectiveness of traditional pricing levers in the near term.

### No room for error with emergency calling
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/emergency-calling-telco-regulatory-risks
- Published: 2024-04-19
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses recent regulatory actions and network failures regarding emergency calling services in Australia and New Zealand. It examines the Commerce Commission (NZ) legal proceedings against One NZ over '111 Contact Code' breaches and reviews the impact of major outages at Optus and Telstra. The brief highlights the critical importance of public trust and transparent communication as operators prepare for the 2025 3G network shutdowns, which could affect approximately one million handsets configured for emergency calls.

### Australian Consumer Telco Pricing – Q3 FY24 Update
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-consumer-telco-pricing-q3-fy24
- Published: 2024-04-15
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the Australian consumer telco pricing landscape for Q3 FY24, highlighting NBN Co's proposal to increase its 'Fast' speed tier to 500 Mbps. It examines the competitive dynamics between NBN and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), Telstra's new Starlink-powered satellite service, and emerging price breaks in the mobile market. The analysis details how RSPs are rebalancing pricing to favor higher speed tiers while lower speed tiers remain vulnerable to wireless substitution.

### What is the future of hybrid work?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/future-of-hybrid-work-australia-2024
- Published: 2024-04-11
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the current state of hybrid work in Australia, drawing on CBD visitation data, public transport statistics, and a survey of ICT decision makers. While office attendance is recovering, with average CBD visitation reaching 71% of pre-pandemic levels by October 2023, flexibility remains a core feature of the modern workplace. The brief explores the implications for telecommunications providers as workers settle into a routine of approximately two days per week working from home.

### Data centre industry facing cost pressure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/data-centre-industry-cost-pressure-2024
- Published: 2024-04-05
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian data centre (DC) industry, forecasting a revenue rise of 19.9% CAGR to FY28. While demand is bolstered by compute-heavy applications like AI, the sector faces significant headwinds from elevated power prices and construction cost pressures. The analysis highlights that hyperscale investment will drive a 26.3% volume CAGR, with Sydney and Melbourne maintaining over 80% of total capacity, though global chip shortages and US-centric AI capacity pose strategic sovereignty risks for Australia.

### What is “broadband”? US regulators raise their standards
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fcc-broadband-standards-australia-impact
- Published: 2024-03-22
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) decision to increase the minimum fixed broadband benchmark to 100 Mbps download and 20 Mbps upload. It examines the implications for Australia’s rural broadband strategy, specifically the 20% of regional premises currently lacking 100 Mbps access. The brief also explores how this international shift could influence the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) regarding the naming and advertising of 'basic' versus 'high-speed' service tiers.

### Mobile Data Use Keeps on Growing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/mobile-data-growth-trends-2024
- Published: 2024-03-15
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses mobile data usage trends using Verizon’s 2023 Consumer Connections Report as a leading indicator for the Australia and New Zealand markets. It highlights a 147% growth in total mobile traffic over five years and identifies video as the primary driver, representing 47% of total volume. The brief discusses the strategic implications for mobile network operators, including pricing justifications, the 'fair share' debate regarding OTT players, and the critical necessity of 3G network shutdowns to support future capacity demands.

### nbn disrupts itself and the market with proposed speed boost
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-proposed-speed-boost-analysis
- Published: 2024-03-08
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses nbn's proposal to dramatically increase speeds on its FTTP and HFC networks without increasing wholesale charges. The move targets customers on 100Mbps+ tiers, offering upgrades up to 500/50 Mbps and 750-1000/50-100 Mbps. By upgrading up to 90% of its fixed-line footprint, nbn aims to encourage migration from lower-tier plans and protect its high-value base from 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) substitution from providers like Telstra, TPG, and Optus.

### Europe Telco Report - February 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-telco-report-february-2024
- Published: 2024-03-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes key developments in the European telecommunications sector during February 2024, focusing on industry consolidation, 5G network slicing, and IoT innovations. It highlights the strategic push by major operators like Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone for market mergers to improve capital returns. The brief also examines the emergence of smart rings in the wearables market and the deployment of AI-driven edge data centers, providing critical implications for the Australian and New Zealand markets.

### Slowing wireless growth & the rise of broadband challengers
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/slowing-wireless-growth-broadband-challengers
- Published: 2024-03-01
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the state of the Australian broadband market following the December 2023 reporting season. It highlights a milestone of over 500,000 MNO fixed wireless (FWA) services in operation, while noting that the 'Big 3' operators (Telstra, Optus, TPG) are experiencing fixed subscriber losses. The analysis explores how these major players are prioritising ARPU and margin gains over subscriber volume in response to increased competition from smaller challengers and non-telco brands.

### Europe Media Report - February 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-media-report-february-2024
- Published: 2024-03-01
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses the implementation of the EU Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA), alongside the launch of nationwide 4K UHD channels in Spain and France. It evaluates how these regulatory and technical developments in Europe serve as case studies for the ANZ market. Key focus areas include the impact of 5G network APIs on live TV production and the migration of terrestrial broadcasting to high-definition standards to maintain audience engagement.

### “Broadband at Dial-Up Prices” – Lessons from another era
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-bigpond-broadband-pricing-lessons
- Published: 2024-02-23
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the historical impact of Telstra BigPond’s February 2004 pricing strategy, which introduced broadband at $29.95 per month. This move halved entry-level pricing and triggered a multi-year surge in subscriber growth, causing broadband penetration to double within the first year. The brief examines the subsequent regulatory conflict with the ACCC and draws parallels to the current competitive landscape between fixed line nbn services and emerging 5G wireless alternatives.

### Is public trust the Achilles heel of AI?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/public-trust-achilles-heel-ai
- Published: 2024-02-16
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the critical role of public trust in the successful implementation of Artificial Intelligence within the Australian telecommunications and media sectors. Despite the potential for innovation and efficiency gains, high-profile incidents of image-based abuse and deepfake financial fraud have exacerbated existing public skepticism. With 57% of Australians believing AI creates more problems than it solves, the report argues that private sector transparency and a robust federal regulatory framework are essential to overcoming the current trust deficit.

### NZ B2B Fixed Forecast & Outlook 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-b2b-fixed-forecast-outlook-2023
- Published: 2024-02-09
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the New Zealand B2B fixed services market through FY28, projecting a return to growth with a total market value of $1.1 billion. While legacy fixed voice continues a structural decline, growth is driven by Ethernet, Internet-grade services, and a 3.0% CAGR in the network services category. The analysis segments the market by business size, technology, and industry vertical, highlighting the transition from legacy MPLS/IP-VPN to SD-WAN and cloud-integrated connectivity solutions.

### nbn HY24 results
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-hy24-results-analysis-greenfield-growth
- Published: 2024-02-08
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses nbn co's half-year FY24 results, highlighting a 5% revenue increase to $2.75bn. While greenfield premises growth remains a strong contributor with +87k ready-to-connect additions, the company faces ongoing challenges in brownfield areas where subscriber losses continue due to wireless substitution. The analysis explores the impact of the Special Access Undertaking (SAU) repricing, the $1.92bn capital expenditure program focused on FTTN/C to fibre upgrades, and the strategic implications of rising competition from 4G/5G fixed wireless access.

### 2024 Telco trends to watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/2024-telco-trends-pricing-nbn-regulation
- Published: 2024-02-02
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report identifies three critical areas shaping the Australian telecommunications landscape in 2024: fraught pricing strategies, NBN's transition beyond the Special Access Undertaking (SAU), and a dense government inquiry agenda. While telcos have recently implemented 'more for more' price increases, falling inflation to 4.1% YoY creates a dilemma for further hikes. The analysis explores NBN's focus on greenfield growth and the potential for a definitive copper exit plan, alongside regulatory responses to major industry incidents like the Optus outage.

### Europe Telco Report - January 2024
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-telco-report-january-2024
- Published: 2024-01-30
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses the evolving European telecommunications landscape, focusing on the UK's shift from CPI-indexed price increases to fixed monetary increments. It examines the strategic divestment of non-core assets, such as Cellnex's exit from private networks and Altice's data centre sale to Morgan Stanley. Additionally, the brief highlights KPN's 25% mobile traffic growth and the resulting pressure on Australian and New Zealand operators to consider similar infrastructure recycling strategies to fund ongoing 5G deployments.

### Australian Consumer Telco Pricing – Q2 FY24 Update
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-consumer-telco-pricing-q2-fy24
- Published: 2024-01-29
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyzes the shift in Australian consumer telco pricing during Q2 FY24, driven by the implementation of nbn's new wholesale pricing under the Special Access Undertaking (SAU). Key findings include a narrowing price spread where low-speed plans (50 Mbps or less) increased by $5-$6 per month, while high-speed tiers saw price reductions of up to $20. The brief also examines tactical promotional shifts in the prepaid and postpaid mobile markets, highlighting Optus's pricing stability despite inflationary pressures.

### New Zealand Telco Market Forecast & Outlook 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-telco-market-forecast-outlook-2023
- Published: 2023-12-15
- Author: David Kennedy

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the New Zealand telecommunications market through FY28, highlighting a return to growth following COVID-19 disruptions. Total retail service revenue is projected to grow at a 2.0% CAGR, reaching NZ$4.48 billion by FY28. The analysis covers the structural decline of fixed voice, the steady expansion of fixed broadband driven by CPI-linked wholesale price increases, and the recovery of the mobile sector as international roaming and population growth stabilize the market.

### Telstra learns that people make mistakes, but machines repeat them
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-billing-errors-ai-guardrails
- Published: 2023-12-08
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses Telstra's recent $3 million penalty and $21 million refund obligation resulting from a decade-long failure in its ADSL deactivation process. Between 2012 and 2023, approximately 6,500 customers were overcharged for inactive services. The brief uses this incident as a cautionary tale for the telecommunications industry, emphasizing that while automation can reduce human error, it risks institutionalizing and repeating mistakes at scale without rigorous governance and ongoing monitoring of AI systems.

### More competition and a new partnership model
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/commbank-more-telco-partnership-model
- Published: 2023-12-01
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the evolving partnership between Commonwealth Bank and More, an Australian provider of nbn and mobile services. Following CommBank's increase to a 30% equity stake, the brief examines how this model differs from traditional white-label or MVNO approaches used by other non-telco brands like Woolworths or Origin. It highlights the strategic advantages of integrated branding and cross-promotional opportunities, such as scheduling broadband activations alongside home loan applications, which has already secured 140,000 joint customers.

### B2B Mobility in NZ: Market Forecast
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-b2b-mobility-market-forecast-2028
- Published: 2023-12-01
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report forecasts the New Zealand B2B mobile retail market, projecting growth to $989 million by FY28 following the pandemic-induced contraction of FY20-FY22. The analysis segments the market into mobile carriage, IoT connectivity, and managed mobility across SMB and Enterprise tiers. Key findings highlight a shift toward higher-value plans and the proliferation of IoT devices, while mobile hardware revenue faces a slight decline due to lengthening handset refresh cycles and the increasing adoption of BYOD policies.

### Australia Consumer Telco Forecast & Outlook 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-consumer-telco-forecast-outlook-2023
- Published: 2023-12-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the Australian consumer telecommunications market through FY28, highlighting a return to growth following pandemic-era declines. Total retail revenue is projected to grow at a 3.0% CAGR, reaching $28,983 million by FY28. While standalone fixed voice continues a rapid contraction at -21.4% CAGR, robust growth in fixed broadband (4.6% CAGR) and a recovery in mobile services (2.3% CAGR) underpinned by inflation-linked pricing and population growth will drive overall market expansion.

### Europe Telco Report - November 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-telco-report-november-2023
- Published: 2023-11-28
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses the shifting landscape of the European telecommunications sector, focusing on major divestments by Vodafone and Deutsche Telekom, and the regulatory implications of the Digital Markets Act (DMA). It examines the push for cloud sovereignty by major carriers and the emerging environmental regulations for data centres in Germany. The brief highlights how these European trends, particularly regarding platform economic power and infrastructure regulation, provide a roadmap for future legislative developments in the Australian and New Zealand markets.

### AU: B2B Mobility Forecast
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/au-b2b-mobility-forecast-2023-2028
- Published: 2023-11-28
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report forecasts the Australian B2B mobile services market, projecting growth to $5.1 billion by FY28 at a 2.2% CAGR. While mobile carriage remains the largest segment at $4.2 billion, growth is primarily driven by IoT connectivity and managed mobility services. The analysis highlights a shift toward BYOD policies and longer handset refresh cycles, which are expected to cause a slight decline in hardware revenues. Telstra maintains a dominant 64% market share, particularly within the enterprise segment.

### The telco contest for new developments
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-contest-new-developments-nbn-greenfield
- Published: 2023-11-24
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the competitive dynamics of the Australian greenfield telecommunications market, focusing on nbn's performance in FY23. After a period of declining share relative to dwelling completions between FY20 and FY22, nbn added 136,000 greenfield premises in FY23, up from 125,000 in the prior year. The brief examines how this recovery impacts 'altnet' providers like TPG and Uniti, the potential for neutral-host mobile infrastructure, and the ongoing threat of mobile substitution in new property developments.

### Australia and New Zealand Telco Wholesale Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-telco-wholesale-outlook-2023
- Published: 2023-11-23
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the evolving telecommunications wholesale markets in Australia and New Zealand, highlighting a shift from regulatory-driven structures to commercially-driven capital efficiency. It forecasts a 1.4% CAGR for the Australian contestable wholesale market through FY27, led by a 10.3% expansion in mobile wholesale. In New Zealand, the contestable market is expected to grow at 3.6% CAGR, primarily driven by data and internet services. The analysis covers fixed voice, data, MVNO, and the surging tower infrastructure segment.

### LEOSats and the competitive dynamics of ‘direct to handset’
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/leosats-direct-to-handset-competitive-dynamics
- Published: 2023-11-17
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the emerging Low Earth Orbit Satellite (LEOSat) market and its impact on the Australian telecommunications landscape. It examines the shift from dedicated satellite hardware to 'direct to handset' connectivity using standard cellular devices. The brief evaluates the strategic positioning of major Australian carriers—Telstra, Optus, and TPG—alongside the competitive threat posed by device manufacturers like Apple. Key timelines for messaging, voice, and data service rollouts through 2025 are detailed.

### Key themes in Wholesale Telecoms, 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/key-themes-wholesale-telecoms-2023
- Published: 2023-11-14
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses four critical themes from the 2023 CommsDay Wholesale Forum: the NBN Special Access Undertaking (SAU), Artificial Intelligence, LEO satellites, and ESG. It highlights how the ACCC's approval of the SAU on 17 October 2023 provides wholesale pricing certainty while introducing disruption for RSPs. Furthermore, the report explores AI as a demand driver for high-bandwidth content and the projected 5x growth in sellable satellite bandwidth between 2021 and 2026.

### Optus’ outage is a warning for all
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-outage-industry-warning-resilience
- Published: 2023-11-10
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the systemic implications of the Optus network outage on November 8th, 2023, which disrupted voice and data services nationwide. It examines how increasing digital dependence, accelerated by the 2019-20 bushfires and COVID-19, has raised the stakes for network resilience. The brief argues that while Optus faces immediate scrutiny, the entire industry must proactively address consumer trust and digital resilience to avoid heavy-handed regulatory intervention following the triggered Senate Inquiry and Post Incident Review.

### nbn’s high speed ambitions
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-high-speed-ambitions-sau-pricing
- Published: 2023-11-03
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses nbn co's strategic shift toward high-speed tiers following the approval of its Special Access Undertaking (SAU). With a target of 30-35% of TC-4 services reaching 100Mbps+ by FY26, nbn has narrowed the wholesale price gap between 50Mbps and 100Mbps tiers to just $5 per month. The brief examines the implications for Retail Service Providers (RSPs), focusing on the balance between ARPU growth opportunities and increased competitive churn risks.

### Europe Media Report - October 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-media-report-october-2023
- Published: 2023-10-31
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses key developments in European media regulation and commerce, focusing on the upcoming Premier League television rights auction and the shift toward IP-based content distribution. It examines how longer contract terms of 6 to 10 years, typical in the US, are being considered for the UK market to encourage investment. The brief also covers strategic partnerships between DAZN and VIDAA, and the EU's regulatory crackdown on disinformation following the Hamas-Israel conflict.

### Europe Telco Report - October 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-telco-report-october-2023
- Published: 2023-10-31
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses key developments in the European telecommunications sector for October 2023, focusing on the acceleration of Open RAN technologies and global edge networking. It highlights Vodafone UK's commercial deployment of 2,500 Open RAN sites and the reduction of site integration times from 4 hours to 2.5 hours. The report also examines new global enterprise network initiatives from Deutsche Telekom and BT, alongside the formation of the Mobile Infrastructure Forum in the UK to streamline tower infrastructure delivery.

### What’s the likelihood of telecoms price inflation?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/likelihood-telecoms-price-inflation-analysis
- Published: 2023-10-30
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the shift in Australian telecommunications pricing following the September 2023 quarter CPI data. While the sector has experienced a decade of deflation relative to general inflation, recent quarterly data shows the telecoms index rising faster than the overall consumer price index for the first time since 2013. The analysis explores the impact of inflation-linked pricing by major retailers like Telstra and the structural price changes introduced by nbn's Special Access Undertaking (SAU).

### SAU resolution brings both certainty and disruption
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-sau-resolution-certainty-disruption
- Published: 2023-10-27
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the ACCC's approval of nbn's Special Access Undertaking (SAU) on 17 October 2023. The new regulatory framework introduces AVC-only flat-rate pricing for high-speed tiers (100Mbps+) and caps entry-level pricing at $55 per month for FY24. While providing long-term certainty for nbn co and RSPs, the transition to WBA5 contracts from 1 December 2023 is expected to collapse the pricing spread between basic and ultrafast plans, potentially impacting digital inclusion for the 70% of users on 50Mbps or lower speeds.

### Is a digital TV upgrade coming?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/digital-tv-upgrade-dvbt2-australia
- Published: 2023-10-27
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the potential transition of Australia's Free-to-Air (FTA) television industry from DVB-T to the DVB-T2 standard. With 4K TV sets now present in 27% of households, the current digital broadcast technology faces significant capacity constraints. While the 2020 Green Paper proposed MPEG-4 compression to free up spectrum for mobile telephony, this brief argues that a more radical upgrade to DVB-T2 is necessary to secure the long-term future of broadcast TV against rising SVOD and BVOD competition.

### Cloud gaming and VR – the pieces are coming together
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/cloud-gaming-vr-telco-connectivity
- Published: 2023-10-20
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the convergence of cloud gaming and Virtual/Mixed Reality (VR/MR) following Meta's announcement that Xbox Game Pass will be available on Quest 3 headsets. While Australian household VR penetration remains low at 3%, the integration of cloud streaming removes hardware barriers and provides telcos with a clear use case for high-speed connectivity. The brief evaluates how retail telcos like Telstra and Optus are positioning gaming services to drive demand for premium nbn and 5G tiers.

### Telco complaints recovering from COVID
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-complaints-recovering-from-covid
- Published: 2023-10-13
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the recovery of the Australian telecommunications sector regarding customer service metrics following the COVID-19 pandemic and major 2022 cybersecurity incidents. While public perception remains challenged by high-profile data breaches and historical delays, ACMA data reveals that total complaint volumes fell from 1.69 million in FY19 to 1.04 million in FY23. The brief examines the disconnect between improving operational performance and the industry's 'net trust' rankings, highlighting the ongoing pressure to meet rising consumer connectivity expectations.

### Closing the gap on digital disadvantage
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/closing-gap-digital-disadvantage-first-nations
- Published: 2023-10-06
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the persistent digital divide in Australia, noting that while the national Digital Inclusion Index (ADII) has improved from 67.5 in 2020 to 73.2 in 2023, significant disparities remain. Remote First Nations communities are particularly disadvantaged, with index scores as low as 48.0, representing a 25.3-point gap against national results. The brief explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on digital equity and the telecommunications industry's role in meeting the 'Closing the Gap Agreement 2020' targets by 2026.

### Europe Media Report - September 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-media-report-september-2023
- Published: 2023-10-03
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report examines the structural shift in European media distribution, highlighted by the UK's launch of Freely, a natively integrated app for smart TVs that bypasses terrestrial antennas. It analyzes the decline of traditional free-to-air audiences, which have dropped to 50% of their pre-streaming levels. Additionally, the brief covers France.tv's adoption of 5G-enabled cloud workflows for live news and Orange's strategic bundling of Apple One to drive customer stickiness in the competitive Spanish quad-play market.

### Europe Telco Report - September 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-telco-report-september-2023
- Published: 2023-10-03
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses the shifting telecommunications landscape in Europe during September 2023, focusing on the strategic move toward Open RAN technology and the increasing nationalization of critical fibre assets. Key developments include the Italian Government's move to acquire up to 20% of Telecom Italia's network and Vodafone UK's deployment of Open RAN across 2,500 sites. The analysis highlights how these European trends, including foreign investment from the Middle East, provide critical precedents for Australasian operators like Telstra and Optus.

### The opportunity cost of expanding telco obligations
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/opportunity-cost-expanding-telco-obligations
- Published: 2023-09-28
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the growing tension between declining real-term telecommunications pricing and the expanding set of regulatory obligations placed on Australian operators. While the price of telecoms hardware and services has fallen significantly relative to CPI over the last decade, reaching an index value of 74.9 against a CPI of 133.7 by June 2023, providers face increasing pressure to deliver higher resilience, cybersecurity, and consumer protections. The brief argues that meeting these commitments carries significant opportunity costs that must be communicated to the public.

### Australia Consumer Broadband Pricing – Q1 FY24 Update
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-consumer-broadband-pricing-q1-fy24
- Published: 2023-09-25
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the Q1 FY24 Australian consumer broadband market, focusing on NBN Co's latest Special Access Undertaking (SAU) revision and competitive wholesale responses. It highlights NBN Co's shift toward flat-rate pricing for high-speed tiers and Vision Networks' strategy to undercut these rates by up to $10 per month. The brief also examines retail pricing trends, including Optus's $6 price hike on entry-level plans and Starlink's introduction of half-price refurbished hardware offers.

### Transparency in Telco Advertising
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/transparency-telco-advertising-regulatory-scrutiny
- Published: 2023-09-22
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the increasing regulatory pressure on telecommunications providers in Australia and New Zealand regarding advertising transparency. It highlights the New Zealand Commerce Commission's proposed disclosure requirements for bundled offers and the ACMA's recent sanction against Starlink for failing to disclose promotional end dates. The brief argues that low consumer trust is driving regulators away from co-regulation toward direct intervention, with significant implications for how retailers market multi-product bundles and manage contract terms.

### Five-year Outlook for Telco Market in Australia and New Zealand 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/five-year-outlook-telco-market-anz-2023
- Published: 2023-09-21
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the technology and commercial trends shaping the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications markets over the next five years. It forecasts a period of subdued growth where telcos must navigate a 'revenue gap' as consumer 5G reaches saturation while enterprise 5G applications take time to scale. Key strategic responses identified include the structural separation of infrastructure assets, the adoption of AI for cost reduction, and a pivot toward managed ICT services to offset declining margins in traditional carriage products.

### iOS17 and the evolution of physical-digital interaction
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/ios17-physical-digital-interaction-evolution
- Published: 2023-09-15
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report examines the release of Apple's iOS 17 and its role in the evolution of physical-digital interaction. While the update offers incremental improvements, it introduces critical technological enablers for future digital realms, including gesture-based screen effects, 'Nudge to wake' sensors, and advanced 'LookUp' video search capabilities. These features represent a strategic shift away from physical touch toward hands-free, intuitive interfaces necessary for the eventual mass adoption of Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR) technologies.

### Who will survive TPG’s brand simplification?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-telecom-brand-simplification-strategy
- Published: 2023-09-07
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses TPG Telecom's strategic shift toward brand simplification as part of a broader multi-year transformation agenda. Following years of acquisitions, TPG maintains a broad suite of overlapping brands compared to peers like Telstra and Optus. The company aims to rationalise its portfolio to drive $140 million in annual cash benefits by FY27. The brief explores the risks of customer churn during migration and the complicating factor of a potential transaction with Vocus Group.

### AU B2B ICT Forecast and Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/au-b2b-ict-forecast-outlook-2023
- Published: 2023-09-01
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report forecasts the Australian B2B ICT services market to grow at a 10.1% CAGR from FY22 to FY27, reaching a total value of $27.9 billion. Growth is primarily driven by cloud computing, which remains the largest segment, and cybersecurity. While economic headwinds are putting pressure on digital transformation budgets, the shift toward hybrid work and cloud-hosted solutions continues to sustain demand across the Unified Communications and Collaboration (UC&CC), Cloud, and Security sectors.

### Can hero handsets still drive consumer mobile switching?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/hero-handsets-mobile-switching-trends
- Published: 2023-08-31
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the impact of flagship smartphone launches on consumer switching behavior in the Australian mobile market. While Apple remains a dominant player, Google Trends data indicates that the 'hype' surrounding September releases has diminished since the early 2010s. The brief identifies a specific, narrow segment of 'hero handset switchers'—those with devices over three years old who prioritize hardware when choosing a provider—and suggests that telcos must adopt more targeted acquisition strategies as the market reaches saturation.

### Fetch TV consolidation positions Telstra in media aggregation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-fetch-tv-media-aggregation-consolidation
- Published: 2023-08-31
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses Telstra's strategic move to consolidate its Telstra TV business with Fetch TV, a platform in which it holds a 51% controlling stake. The migration of customers from Roku-based hardware to Fetch TV is expected to increase Fetch's subscriber base from 700,000 to over 1.3 million within 12 months. This consolidation aims to generate synergies, improve margins, and position Telstra as a dominant player in the Australian media aggregation market as SVOD growth peaks and consumers seek to manage rising household media costs.

### Europe Media Report - August 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-media-report-august-2023
- Published: 2023-08-30
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyzes the strategic shift in the European media landscape as streaming platforms transition from market penetration to profitability. Key developments include Disney+ launching ad-supported tiers across eight European markets and Netflix reporting a loss of 330,000 subscribers in Spain following its password-sharing crackdown. The analysis explores how these trends, alongside the syndication of premium sports rights by Telefonica and BT Group, provide a benchmark for Australian and New Zealand operators like Foxtel and Sky NZ to optimize revenue through platform aggregation.

### Europe Telco Report - August 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-telco-report-august-2023
- Published: 2023-08-30
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses the strategic shifts in the European telecommunications sector as traditional roaming revenues face disintermediation from eSIM startups like Airalo, which recently secured a $60M equity raise. Operators are responding by monetising legacy infrastructure, such as BT Group's plan to convert up to 60,000 street cabinets into EV charging points. Additionally, the report examines the emergence of 5G-based drone air traffic control and significant industry consolidation, including the proposed Orange-Masmovil merger in Spain and the Vodafone-Three merger in the UK.

### Spark ignites wireless broadband growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/spark-ignites-wireless-broadband-growth
- Published: 2023-08-24
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyzes Spark New Zealand's FY24-26 strategy update, highlighting its successful transition of 30% of its broadband base to fixed wireless access (FWA). While Spark's total broadband base declined from a peak of 709k in 2020 to 699k in 2023, its wireless services grew to 209k. This shift toward 'owner's economics' serves as a benchmark for Australian operators like Telstra, Optus, and TPG as they navigate rising wholesale costs and seek to improve retail margins.

### The evolving broadband bundle
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/evolving-broadband-bundle-trends-2023
- Published: 2023-08-17
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the transition of Australian fixed broadband bundles during the June 2023 quarter. It identifies a significant decline in the inclusion of fixed voice services, which have shifted from a core bundle component to a discretionary upsell. In contrast, Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) services have become the primary incentive for customer acquisition and retention. The brief also highlights a notable gap in the market for integrated smart-home service bundles compared to entertainment-led offerings.

### Australian Consumer Broadband Pricing 2023: Pricing Trends
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-consumer-broadband-pricing-trends-2023
- Published: 2023-08-16
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the 2023 Australian consumer broadband market, highlighting how nbn wholesale pricing continues to dictate retail strategies. While the Telecoms sub-index has fallen 25% relative to a 33% rise in CPI since 2012, providers are now implementing 'more for more' pricing to combat falling Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). The analysis covers the competitive pressure from 5G home wireless, which averages 77% of the price of equivalent nbn plans, and the evolution of bundling strategies across energy, gaming, and streaming services.

### Three nbn growth metrics we’re watching
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-fy23-growth-metrics-analysis
- Published: 2023-08-11
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses nbn co's FY23 results, highlighting a 3% year-on-year revenue increase to $5.27bn despite a modest 0.5% growth in the active subscriber base. The analysis identifies three critical metrics for future growth: greenfield footprint expansion, brownfield take-up rates, and speed tier mix. With brownfield active premises declining by approximately 42,000, the report examines the increasing pressure on ARPU to drive revenue and the potential impact of fixed wireless competition on the nbn footprint.

### The future of Vocus Retail - three scenarios
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/vocus-retail-future-three-scenarios
- Published: 2023-08-04
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the strategic implications of Vocus Group's $6.3 billion indicative offer to acquire TPG’s Enterprise, Government, and Wholesale assets. The potential acquisition of the Vision Network, which passes approximately 400,000 premises, would significantly strengthen Vocus' position in the enterprise market. The brief evaluates three scenarios for Vocus' retail division, including maintaining the status quo, transferring customers to TPG to offset transaction costs, or proceeding with a sale to a third-party energy retailer in 2024.

### 2023 Consumer Media Survey: Video Devices
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/2023-consumer-media-survey-video-devices
- Published: 2023-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the results of a June 2023 consumer media survey of 1,124 Australian respondents, focusing on video device ownership and usage patterns. It identifies a 'new normal' characterized by incremental rather than disruptive change, with connected TV penetration holding steady at 75%. The findings highlight the rise of 'TV refuseniks'—households not using a television for video—which has grown to 9%, and tracks the continued shift toward higher resolution screens and mobile-first viewing for short-form content.

### 4K TV growth could have big implications
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/4k-tv-growth-implications-au-nz
- Published: 2023-07-27
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the rapid adoption of 4K television sets in the Australia and New Zealand markets, where nearly one-third of households now possess 4K resolution hardware. With 88% of prospective TV buyers planning to purchase 4K sets in the next 12 months, the surge in high-bandwidth traffic poses a strategic challenge for telecommunications providers. The brief explores the implications for broadband network capacity, the transition to DVB-T2 broadcast technology, and the ongoing debate regarding infrastructure funding by content platforms.

### Avoiding tunnel vision in international broadband comparisons
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/avoiding-tunnel-vision-broadband-comparisons
- Published: 2023-07-21
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses Australia's declining position in international broadband rankings, noting a drop to 23rd place in OECD fixed broadband penetration during 2022. While Australia remains a middle-of-the-pack performer in penetration, it ranks 34th out of 38 nations for the share of users on speeds of 100Mbps or faster. The brief argues that policy makers should move beyond narrow speed-based benchmarks toward a multi-dimensional index, similar to Europe's Digital Economy & Society Index (DESI), to better reflect national digital capability.

### NZ ICT Forecast and Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-ict-forecast-outlook-2023
- Published: 2023-07-19
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the New Zealand ICT services market across Unified Communications (UC&CC), Cloud Computing, and Cybersecurity segments from FY22 to FY27. It analyzes spend drivers including hybrid work models, digital transformation, and the entry of global hyperscalers into the local market. The analysis segments the market by business size (SMB vs. Enterprise) and 16 industry verticals, highlighting the shift toward cloud-hosted solutions and the rising demand for managed security services.

### Chorus connection update points to broadband ARPU opportunities
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/chorus-broadband-arpu-opportunities-july-2023
- Published: 2023-07-14
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses Chorus’ latest quarterly connections update, highlighting a stable broadband subscriber base of 1.188 million connections. While total volumes remain steady, a significant shift toward higher speed tiers is evident, with 1Gbps and Hyperfibre services accounting for 44% of net mass market fibre additions in Q4. The analysis explores how upcoming CPI-linked wholesale price increases of up to 6.65% and a return to data usage growth position Chorus to improve ARPU and defend against fixed wireless competition.

### Telstra must be realistic in selling its Starlink vision
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-starlink-vision-regional-broadband
- Published: 2023-07-06
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses Telstra's strategic partnership with Starlink, scheduled for commercial launch by the end of 2023. By bundling Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite broadband with traditional voice services and professional installation, Telstra aims to lower switching barriers for regional customers. The brief evaluates the competitive pressure on nbn's SkyMuster Plus Premium and highlights the regulatory risks associated with marketing claims, citing recent enforcement actions against One NZ by the New Zealand Commerce Commission.

### Europe Media Report - July 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-media-report-july-2023-regulation-broadcasting
- Published: 2023-07-01
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report examines the intensifying regulatory environment for Big Tech in Europe, specifically focusing on Spain's new framework targeting companies with over EUR 7.5 billion in turnover. It analyzes the legal challenges posed by Amazon against the Digital Service Act and the strategic shift by European broadcasters toward 5G Broadcast and UHD-4K. With Spanish TV audiences hitting historical lows in Q2 2023, the report highlights how these technological and regulatory shifts in Europe will likely inform future policy directions in Australia and New Zealand.

### Europe Telco Report - July 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-telco-report-july-2023
- Published: 2023-07-01
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyzes the accelerating deployment of 10 Gbps FTTP services across Europe using XGS-PON technology, highlighting major moves by Virgin O2, Digi, and Openreach. It further examines the structural shifts in the tower industry, including A1 Towers' upcoming IPO and Iliad’s divestment in Poland. Finally, the report reviews strategic pivots in adjacent markets, specifically Orange’s exit from retail banking and EE’s reinvention of the retail store format to drive customer experience and ARPU.

### Inflation linked pricing is a delicate balancing act
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/inflation-linked-pricing-telco-balancing-act
- Published: 2023-06-29
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the widening gap between telecommunications pricing and general inflation in Australia. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.6% in the twelve months to May 2023, communications prices increased by only 1.1%. The brief examines the risks and opportunities for Australian operators considering inflation-linked pricing models, drawing parallels with the UK market where 'CPI plus' pricing has triggered significant political and regulatory backlash despite double-digit inflation levels.

### The end of the MOCN deal - renewed push for regional roaming?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/act-upholds-accc-telstra-tpg-mocn-rejection
- Published: 2023-06-21
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Competition Tribunal’s (ACT) decision to uphold the ACCC’s rejection of the Multi-Operator Core Network (MOCN) deal between Telstra and TPG. The ruling reinforces the regulatory priority of infrastructure-based competition over spectrum sharing in the Australian mobile market. While the decision is a significant victory for the ACCC and Optus, it leaves TPG as the number three network with limited expansion prospects, likely reviving debates around mandatory regional roaming and commercial sharing arrangements.

### Second “digital dividend” in UHF band still not certain
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/uhf-band-digital-dividend-uncertainty
- Published: 2023-06-15
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the ongoing debate regarding the second digital dividend in the 600MHz UHF band. While telecommunications providers are eager to acquire low-band spectrum to expand 5G services, the transition is complicated by the continued reliance on terrestrial broadcast television. Recent survey data indicates that 44% of Australian households still use broadcast for all free-to-air viewing, suggesting that a full migration to online delivery is not imminent. The report evaluates the regulatory hurdles and industry development realities facing the proposed spectrum restacking.

### Confronting the security and data protection challenge
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/confronting-security-data-protection-challenge
- Published: 2023-06-14
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the shifting landscape of cybersecurity and data protection within the Australian telecommunications sector following the Comms Day Policy Forum. It examines how digital dependence has elevated security from a technical IT concern to a core pillar of national policy. The brief explores the implications of AI governance, the competitive impacts of national security mandates like the Huawei exclusion, and the urgent need for a people-centric approach to rebuild consumer trust in a sector currently facing significant reputational challenges.

### “Unlimited” satellite broadband is good news for rural Australia
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/unlimited-satellite-broadband-rural-australia
- Published: 2023-06-06
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the competitive shift in the Australian rural broadband market following nbn’s launch of the Sky Muster Plus Premium plan. With Starlink having secured nearly 95,000 services by February 2023, nbn is responding with unlimited data and burst speeds up to 100 Mbps. The brief examines how this move addresses the digital divide for the 10% of Australians without fixed-line access and explores the broader policy implications for LEO satellite technology in both Australia and New Zealand.

### Europe Media Report - June 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/europe-media-report-june-2023
- Published: 2023-06-01
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses the strategic shifts in the European media and telecommunications landscape as of June 2023. It highlights Sky UK's entry into the home insurance market, the European Union's rejection of a proposal to force Big Tech to fund 5G infrastructure, and the launch of Utiq, a privacy-focused digital advertising platform by four major MNOs. The brief examines how these European trends, including Twitter's withdrawal from disinformation codes, provide critical precedents for regulators and operators in Australia and New Zealand.

### Optus FY23 – A Tale of Two Halves
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-fy23-results-analysis-cyber-recovery
- Published: 2023-05-29
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses Optus' FY23 financial results, highlighting a 2.8% increase in operating revenue and a return to mobile subscriber growth following the September 2022 cyberattack. While the company added 425k mobile subscribers during the year, over 70% of this growth occurred in the first half, prior to the security incident. The brief also examines the competitive landscape of fixed wireless access, where TPG's rapid growth of 91k customers poses a significant threat to Optus' established market position.

### Younger FTA TV watchers migrating to other devices
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/younger-fta-tv-watchers-migrating-devices
- Published: 2023-05-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the shifting device preferences of Australian media consumers, highlighting a significant trend where viewers are abandoning traditional TV sets for alternative devices. While smart TV penetration is strong at 80%, the proportion of households not watching on a TV set has increased from 4% to 9% in just 17 months. This migration is most pronounced among the 18-24 age cohort, where 12% of households do not use a TV set, posing long-term risks to broadcast infrastructure viability.

### It’s time to give telco complaints more context
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-complaints-context-march-2023
- Published: 2023-05-17
- Author: Heath Gibson

This report analyses the March quarter complaint data from the Telecommunications Industry Ombudsman (TIO) and the Communications Alliance. While Optus saw a decline in total complaints, its rate of 5.4 per 10k services remains above the industry average of 3.7. The brief argues for four specific reporting improvements, including the integration of contextual data and five-quarter historical views, to provide a more accurate reflection of telco performance and seasonal impacts like weather-related service faults.

### Satellite IoT holds big promise for remote automation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/satellite-iot-remote-automation-promise
- Published: 2023-05-10
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the disruptive potential of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks supporting native 5G connectivity. With Sateliot planning a 250-satellite constellation and Lynk Global claiming patented direct-to-phone systems, the traditional coverage advantages held by incumbents like Telstra and Spark New Zealand are set to diminish. The integration of 3GPP protocols into satellite infrastructure allows for low-cost, off-the-shelf NB-IoT devices to operate in remote areas, potentially reducing the need for government-subsidised rural 5G investments.

### SAU process still a big opportunity for telcos and end-users
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-sau-process-telco-opportunity
- Published: 2023-05-03
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the ACCC's rejection of the latest NBN Special Access Undertaking (SAU) and its implications for the Australian fixed broadband market. It highlights the regulatory shift toward removing the Capacity Volume Charge (CVC), which currently places usage-based financial risks on Retail Service Providers (RSPs). By benchmarking against New Zealand's regulatory success, the brief argues that higher wholesale pricing and greater cost certainty are necessary to reverse long-term price deflation and support future infrastructure investment.

### Monthly Europe Telco Roundup – May 2023
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-europe-telco-roundup-may-2023
- Published: 2023-05-01
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses recent telecommunications developments in Europe and their potential impact on the Australian and New Zealand markets. Key focus areas include the integration of low earth orbit (LEO) satellites with 5G IoT devices, the expansion of data centre capacity into Tier 1 metropolitan areas like Barcelona, and the emergence of telco exchange monetisation through partnerships with hyperscalers. The brief also examines the evolving economic efficiency strategies of European tower companies amidst rising interest rates and shifting valuation metrics.

### Natural language AI will drive better telco customer experience
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/natural-language-ai-telco-customer-experience
- Published: 2023-04-26
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the emergence of new AI language models and their application within the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications industry. It highlights how telcos, currently facing high levels of consumer mistrust, are adopting conversational AI tools like Optus’s new Voice Assistant to bypass traditional phone menus and reduce call abandonment. The brief forecasts that telcos will integrate these capabilities deeper into omnichannel interactions within the next 12 months to improve customer experience and network performance.

### Standard 5G and IoT devices to connect directly to satellites
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/direct-to-satellite-5g-iot-growth
- Published: 2023-04-26
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the emergence of non-terrestrial wireless radio networks, specifically focusing on the integration of standard 5G and IoT devices with Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. It examines key developments such as Sateliot's 5G nanosatellite launch and AT&T's successful smartphone-to-satellite call. The analysis extends to the European data centre market's decentralisation into Tier 1 cities like Barcelona and the strategic monetisation of telco exchanges through edge computing partnerships like BT and AWS Wavelength.

### Benefits in regional LEO/mobile partnership
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/regional-leo-mobile-partnership-benefits
- Published: 2023-04-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the shifting landscape of regional telecommunications policy as Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite technology disrupts traditional Universal Service Obligation (USO) frameworks. It evaluates the emergence of direct-to-device (D2D) operators like Lynk, which allow standard 5G handsets to connect to satellites without hardware modifications. The brief argues that these partnerships provide mobile network operators with a viable alternative to mandatory roaming, offering improved emergency connectivity while preserving infrastructure investment incentives in regional Australia and New Zealand.

### Data centre outlook and forecast released
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-data-centre-outlook-forecast-2027
- Published: 2023-04-11
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian data centre market, forecasting a rise from $1.8bn to over $4.2bn by FY27. It highlights a significant shift toward the hyperscale segment, which is expected to generate 39% of total revenue and 59% of total supply by the end of the forecast period. Sydney remains the dominant hub for investment, while regional expansions continue in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane, driven by submarine cable landings and cloud adoption.

### NBN Co bond issue benefits from public ownership
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-co-bond-issue-public-ownership-benefits
- Published: 2023-03-27
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses NBN Co's recent issuance of EUR1.2bn in six and ten-year green bonds within the European market. It examines how NBN Co's status as a fully government-owned entity provides a unique competitive advantage in a high-interest-rate environment compared to privatised global peers. The brief highlights the tension between public and private investment, noting that while sovereign status attracts capital for fixed telco infrastructure, it may inadvertently pressure private competition and necessitate a reconsideration of Australia's broader telecommunications policy framework.

### NBN staff cuts won’t affect SAU pricing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-staff-cuts-sau-pricing-impact
- Published: 2023-03-20
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes NBN Co's announcement to reduce its headcount by approximately 10%, or 500 roles, primarily targeting general management. Despite pressure from Retail Service Providers (RSPs) for lower wholesale pricing following these cost reductions, the brief argues that such concessions are unlikely. NBN Co is instead prioritizing network upgrades to compete with alternative fibre and LEO satellite providers, while managing an accumulated loss overhang of $30 billion.

### Satellite innovation surges, but risks abound
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/satellite-innovation-surges-risks-abound
- Published: 2023-03-13
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the rapid expansion of satellite connectivity services in Australia, highlighted by Starlink's growth to 95,000 active services. It examines the emergence of direct-to-handset technologies from operators like Lynk, Bullitt Group, and Iridium, while weighing these innovations against the industry's historical volatility. The brief evaluates whether satellite can realistically replace current Universal Service Obligation (USO) arrangements given the significant capital requirements and ongoing business model uncertainties that are expected to persist until at least 2030.

### NBN connections decline shows rising competition
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-connections-decline-rising-competition
- Published: 2023-03-06
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the first recorded decline in NBN Co's TC-4 active connections, which fell by approximately 9,000 services in the December 2022 quarter. The data highlights a structural shift in the Australian broadband market, where traditional 'big four' providers (Telstra, Optus, Vocus, and TPG) are losing share to challenger brands and alternative technologies. The analysis explores the impact of LEO satellites, independent fibre, and fixed wireless on NBN's household growth and the resulting pressure on enterprise segment revenues.

### Australia Consumer Telco Market Forecast & Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-consumer-telco-market-forecast-2022
- Published: 2022-12-08
- Author: David Kennedy

This report forecasts the Australian consumer telco market recovery following COVID-19 impacts, projecting a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by FY24. While standalone fixed voice revenues are expected to contract at a 28.0% CAGR, growth in mobile (1.0% CAGR) and fixed broadband (3.0% CAGR) will drive total retail market value to A$24.2bn by FY26. The analysis covers market share shifts, 5G use cases in gaming and streaming, and the evolving NBN wholesale pricing landscape.

### 2022 ANZ Enterprise SMB survey – business sentiment and ICT priorities
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/2022-anz-enterprise-smb-ict-survey
- Published: 2022-11-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses a survey of 500 firms across Australia and New Zealand conducted in late 2022. It examines business sentiment, digital maturity, and ICT priorities, finding that while most companies expect improving conditions, a significant gap exists between enterprises and SMBs. The study highlights that network performance has overtaken price as a primary supplier decision factor, and identifies a growing urgency for cybersecurity capabilities as firms increase their reliance on cloud services and remote working models.

### TPG fibre sale driven by industry change
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-fibre-sale-industry-change
- Published: 2022-11-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses TPG Telecom's potential sale of its Vision Networks fibre entity, estimated to be worth between $550 million and $935 million. The move is framed as a strategic response to declining return on invested capital (ROIC) across the Australian telecommunications sector, which fell from 9.7% in 2016 to 6.6% in 2018. The analysis explores the emerging division between infrastructure and service operations, forecasting that wholesale revenue will outpace retail growth through FY26.

### B2B Fixed Services in AU: Market Forecast
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/au-b2b-fixed-services-market-forecast-2026
- Published: 2022-10-26
- Author: Venture Insights

This report forecasts the Australian B2B fixed services retail market, projecting it will reach $6.8 billion by FY26. While the market experienced a 3.1% CAGR decline during the FY19-21 period due to COVID-19, total revenue is expected to remain flat with a 0.1% 5Y CAGR. Growth is primarily driven by managed and professional services, which are currently offsetting the structural decline in legacy fixed voice and MPLS services as enterprises migrate to cloud-based solutions.

### B2B Fixed Services in NZ: Market Forecast
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-b2b-fixed-services-market-forecast-2022
- Published: 2022-10-20
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report forecasts the New Zealand B2B fixed services retail market, projecting it will reach $1.07 billion by FY26. While the total market remains relatively flat with a -0.5% 5Y CAGR, significant structural shifts are occurring. Growth is driven by a 1.6% CAGR in network services, particularly within the enterprise segment, which is being offset by a -4.6% CAGR decline in fixed voice as organizations migrate from legacy PSTN/ISDN to lower-cost VoIP and UC solutions.

### Telstra TPG deal - a bridge too far?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-tpg-regional-deal-analysis
- Published: 2022-10-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the proposed regional network sharing agreement between Telstra and TPG Telecom, evaluating the regulatory hurdles posed by the ACCC. It examines the deal's structure, which involves TPG gaining access to 3,700 Telstra sites to reach 98.8% population coverage, while Telstra gains access to TPG's spectrum. The analysis concludes that the ACCC is unlikely to approve the deal in its current form due to long-standing precedents favoring infrastructure-based competition and concerns over spectrum consolidation.

### Australia and New Zealand Telco Wholesale Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-telco-wholesale-outlook-2022
- Published: 2022-09-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australia and New Zealand telco wholesale markets, forecasting that the Australian active wholesale market will grow at a 2.6% CAGR over FY22-26, significantly faster than the 0.3% growth expected for the total retail market. It examines the impact of structural separation, the decline of legacy voice, and the surge in tower divestments. The analysis highlights how capital efficiency has replaced regulation as the primary driver for market restructuring and infrastructure unbundling.

### 5-year Outlook: Telco Market in Australia and NZ
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/5-year-telco-outlook-australia-nz
- Published: 2022-09-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report provides a comprehensive five-year outlook for the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications markets, focusing on the transition from consumer-led growth to enterprise digital transformation. It analyzes the impact of stalled population growth on mobile and broadband revenues, the structural separation of infrastructure assets to improve capital efficiency, and the emerging role of 5G, edge computing, and LEO satellites. The analysis forecasts a challenging period for profitability, with a significant revenue gap expected until enterprise 5G use cases mature toward the middle of the decade.

### Venture Insights NZ survey 2022: Consumer Mobile Preferences
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-consumer-mobile-preferences-2022
- Published: 2022-09-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyzes the 2022 New Zealand consumer mobile market based on a survey of 1,004 respondents. It identifies a significant shift in consumer sentiment, with 23% of users expecting to increase their mobile spend compared to just 7% in 2021. While price remains the primary decision factor for 92% of respondents, there is a growing appetite for 5G services and bundled media content, particularly sports. The findings suggest that mobile operators have an opportunity to lift ARPUs by focusing on network performance, regional coverage, and 'softer' benefits like customer service.

### Telco Roundup of August 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-roundup-august-2022-analysis
- Published: 2022-09-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the FY22 financial performance and strategic trends within the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications markets. It highlights a period of transition where major Australian RSPs face EBITDA margin pressure despite a recovery in mobile growth, while the New Zealand market is poised for expansion driven by higher ARPUs in mobile and fixed broadband. The analysis covers key players including Telstra, TPG Telecom, Spark, and NBN Co, focusing on the shift from legacy services to high-growth digital infrastructure and 5G opportunities.

### Enterprise Roundup of August 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/enterprise-roundup-august-2022-nz-mobile-growth
- Published: 2022-09-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key events and trends shaping the B2B telecommunications market in Australia and New Zealand as of August 2022. It forecasts the NZ B2B mobile services market to grow to $912 million by FY26, following a period of pandemic-induced stagnation. The analysis covers the expansion of the 5G ecosystem, the growing adoption of multi-cloud strategies among enterprises, and the specific growth trajectories for SMB versus large enterprise segments in the region.

### B2B mobility in NZ to grow
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-b2b-mobility-market-growth-forecast
- Published: 2022-08-22
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the New Zealand B2B mobile services market, forecasting growth to $912 million by FY26. Following a modest 1.0% CAGR during the FY19-21 COVID-19 period, the market is set to expand through higher ARPUs, 5G adoption, and enterprise digital transformation. The analysis covers mobile carriage, managed mobility, and the accelerating IoT connectivity segment, highlighting a clear trend toward premium 5G plans and increased spending in the SMB and enterprise sectors.

### New Zealand Telco Market to return to growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-telco-market-growth-forecast-2026
- Published: 2022-08-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report forecasts the New Zealand retail telecommunications market to return to growth with a 0.9% CAGR between FY21 and FY26, reaching NZ$5.37bn. Growth is primarily driven by higher ARPUs in mobile and fixed broadband segments, offsetting the structural decline in fixed voice. While a slow economy and inflation present headwinds, the adoption of 5G and fixed wireless technologies provide significant market recovery opportunities.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of July 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-july-2022
- Published: 2022-08-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key events in the AU/NZ B2B telecommunications market for July 2022, focusing on Telstra's FY22 results and NBN Co's milestone revenue. Telstra Enterprise reported a 3.0% YoY revenue increase to $5.4B, while EBITDA rose 12.6% to $1.4B. The analysis explores the shift from legacy MPLS to Layer-2 Ethernet services and the emergence of 5G multi-access edge compute (MEC) pilots in New Zealand, highlighting the evolving competitive landscape between incumbents and NBN Co.

### Uniti acquisition - growth not guaranteed
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/uniti-acquisition-growth-not-guaranteed
- Published: 2022-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the $3.4 billion acquisition offer for Uniti Group by HRL Morrison and Brookfield, questioning the high 24x EBITDA multiple. While telco infrastructure assets have seen strong interest, broadband access differs significantly from mobile towers due to shorter contracts and higher consumer churn. With 14% of survey respondents intending to disconnect home broadband and rising competition from MNO fixed wireless, the growth assumptions built into the offer face substantial headwinds in the Australian market.

### Telco Roundup of July 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-roundup-july-2022-telstra-microsoft-5g-fwa
- Published: 2022-08-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key telecommunications trends in Australia and New Zealand for July 2022, focusing on the five-year strategic agreement between Telstra and Microsoft. It evaluates Telstra's goal to migrate 90% of internal applications to the public cloud by 2025 and Microsoft's role as an anchor tenant on Telstra's intercity fibre network. Additionally, the brief examines consumer sentiment toward 5G fixed wireless, where 6% of Australian broadband users already utilize non-NBN fixed wireless solutions.

### NBN and Telstra: Mobile grows while fixed languishes
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-nbn-fy22-mobile-growth-fixed-decline
- Published: 2022-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the FY22 financial results for Telstra and NBN Co, highlighting a divergence between mobile and fixed-line performance. While Telstra's mobile segment saw EBITDA growth of 21.2% driven by ARPU increases and cost reductions, its consumer fixed business continues to lose market share. Simultaneously, NBN Co's expansion into the enterprise market with Enterprise Ethernet is placing severe pressure on Telstra's legacy data revenues, signaling a mature and highly competitive fixed broadband landscape in Australia.

### Venture Insights AU survey 2022: Consumer Mobile Preferences
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/au-consumer-mobile-preferences-2022
- Published: 2022-07-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the 2022 Australian consumer mobile market based on a national survey of 1,031 respondents. It identifies a significant shift where network performance and speed have reached parity with price as the primary decision factors for 91% of consumers. The findings highlight growing 5G adoption, with 38% of users already owning 5G devices, and a notable increase in consumers expecting to pay more for mobile services due to inflationary pressures and the perceived value of high-speed connectivity.

### Venture Insights AU survey 2022: Consumer Broadband Preferences
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/au-consumer-broadband-preferences-2022
- Published: 2022-07-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyzes the 2022 Australian consumer broadband market based on a survey of 1,031 respondents. It finds that 88% of households have a fixed broadband connection, with Telstra, Optus, and TPG maintaining a combined 75% market share. While price remains the key purchasing driver for 44% of consumers, there is a significant shift toward 5G fixed wireless, with 21% of respondents expressing intent to adopt the technology within the next 24 months.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of June 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-june-2022
- Published: 2022-07-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the B2B telecommunications market in Australia and New Zealand, forecasting the total ICT services market to reach $24.7 billion by FY26. Driven by a 10.6% 5Y CAGR, growth is primarily fueled by cloud and cybersecurity services. The analysis examines TPG Telecom's strategic expansion into the enterprise segment and the broader trend of global service providers like BT increasing their local cloud infrastructure footprint to capture high-growth digital transformation spend.

### Telco Roundup of May 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-roundup-may-2022-optus-tpg-nbn
- Published: 2022-06-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key events in the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications markets for May 2022, focusing on Optus' FY22 financial results, the industry debate over NBN Co's Special Access Undertaking (SAU) variation, and TPG Telecom's $950 million sale of its passive tower infrastructure. It evaluates how these developments impact competitive dynamics, specifically regarding fixed wireless access (FWA) growth and the structural separation of mobile network operators to maximize infrastructure utilization.

### ANZ mobile media and payments survey
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-mobile-media-payments-survey-2022
- Published: 2022-06-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes consumer telecommunications behavior in Australia and New Zealand based on a survey of over 2,000 respondents. It highlights a significant shift in the mobile landscape, where 32% of Australians and 31% of New Zealanders now stream video daily. While media consumption and mobile gaming are on the rise, traditional banking institutions are seeing a decline in payment app dominance, losing market share to global platforms like Apple Pay and Android Pay.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of May 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-may-2022
- Published: 2022-06-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key trends in the B2B telecommunications market across Australia and New Zealand, focusing on the emergence of 5G enterprise use cases and NBN Co's launch of 10Gbps Enterprise Ethernet. It forecasts the New Zealand ICT services market to reach $3.5 billion by FY26, driven by cloud and cybersecurity. The analysis highlights strategic shifts as organizations migrate from legacy MPLS to Layer-2 Ethernet and SD-WAN solutions to support cloud-first digital transformation strategies.

### Australia Telco Market Forecast & Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-telco-market-forecast-outlook-2022
- Published: 2022-05-10
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the Australian telecommunications market from FY21 to FY26, analyzing the recovery trajectory following COVID-19 impacts. It details the structural shift away from fixed voice services toward mobile and high-speed fixed broadband, driven by 5G adoption and NBN migration. The analysis covers retail and wholesale segments, infrastructure monetization trends, and the competitive landscape among major RSPs including Telstra, Optus, and TPG Telecom.

### Telco Roundup of April 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-roundup-april-2022-tower-monetization
- Published: 2022-05-04
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key events in the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications markets for April 2022, focusing on significant public investment in regional infrastructure and the growing adoption of AI in network management. It highlights the $145 million joint federal-state investment in Western Australia and the $3.58 billion acquisition of Axicom by AustralianSuper. The brief also examines the strategic shift toward tower asset monetization by major operators like Vodafone NZ and Spark to improve capital efficiency.

### Media Roundup of April 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/media-roundup-april-2022-telstra-fetch
- Published: 2022-05-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key shifts in the Australian and New Zealand media landscape during April 2022, focusing on Telstra's $50 million acquisition of a controlling stake in Fetch TV. It evaluates the strategic move to internalise technology roadmaps as the Roku agreement expires. Additionally, the report examines YouTube's aggressive entry into the podcasting sector with $300,000 creator grants and the broader trend of broadcast infrastructure divestment, highlighted by BAI's sale of 774 transmission sites.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of April 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-april-2022
- Published: 2022-05-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key trends in the Australia and New Zealand B2B telecommunications market for April 2022. It highlights the expansion of business-grade satellite services by TPG Telecom and SpaceX's Swarm, the rollout of low-latency AWS local zones in Brisbane, Perth, and Auckland, and the continued momentum of SD-WAN adoption. The analysis focuses on how these technologies enable smaller providers to compete with incumbents by decoupling network management from physical infrastructure.

### Telco Roundup of March 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-roundup-march-2022-regional-nbn-uniti
- Published: 2022-04-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key telecommunications events in Australia and New Zealand during March 2022, focusing on the $1.3 billion federal budget allocation for regional connectivity. It examines NBN Co's $750 million plan to upgrade its fixed wireless network to 5G, targeting speeds up to 250Mbps. Additionally, the report details the competitive bidding for Uniti Group, which saw offers reach $5 per share, reflecting high investor appetite for low-risk infrastructure assets in the post-pandemic landscape.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of Mar 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-march-2022
- Published: 2022-04-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key shifts in the AU/NZ B2B telecommunications market, highlighting a $1 billion federal tax incentive for SMB digital transformation. It examines the expansion of challenger telcos like Aussie Broadband and Macquarie Telecom through SD-WAN adoption, and details Singtel subsidiary NCS’s $290 million acquisition of Arq Group. The analysis focuses on how these structural changes and new fiscal policies are impacting incumbent market dominance and driving ICT service growth.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of Feb 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-february-2022
- Published: 2022-03-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the B2B telecommunications market in Australia and New Zealand, focusing on H1-FY22 financial results and emerging 5G innovation. Telstra's enterprise division reversed its declining trajectory with 1.3% YoY growth, largely driven by a 10.5% increase in mobile services revenue. The analysis also covers the impact of NBN on fixed connectivity margins, the growth of Network Applications and Services (NAS), and Singtel subsidiary NCS's A$325 million acquisition of Dialog Group to bolster its Australian ICT presence.

### Telco Roundup of February 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-roundup-february-2022-telstra-tpg-sharing
- Published: 2022-03-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key telecommunications events in Australia and New Zealand during February 2022, focusing on the landmark 10-year network sharing agreement between Telstra and TPG Telecom. It evaluates the strategic implications of Telstra's $1.6 billion hyperscale fibre network investment and the trend toward tower monetization in New Zealand by Spark and Vodafone NZ. The analysis highlights how these infrastructure shifts aim to improve capital efficiency and 5G rollout speeds while intensifying competition in the retail and wholesale markets.

### Telcos half year results: the EBITDA battle
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telcos-half-year-ebitda-battle
- Published: 2022-03-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the H1-FY22 financial performance of major telecommunications providers in Australia and New Zealand, including Telstra, Optus, TPG, and Spark. While consumer and small business revenues faced COVID-related declines, most operators successfully protected EBITDA margins by transitioning customers away from hardware subsidies and implementing cost synergy programs. The analysis highlights a strategic shift toward higher-margin 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as a substitute for wholesale fibre products, alongside continued double-digit revenue growth from challenger brands like Aussie Broadband and Uniti.

### 2022 Telco Trends to Watch
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/2022-telco-trends-nbn-fwa-leo
- Published: 2022-02-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report identifies key market trends expected to disrupt established telco models in Australia and New Zealand during 2022. It focuses on the regulatory challenges facing the NBN, the emergence of LEO satellite competition from providers like Amazon and Starlink, and the growth of 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA). Additionally, the analysis covers the trend toward infrastructure separation and the increasing role of AI and machine learning in optimizing network management and customer engagement.

### Statement of Preliminary Issues: Vocus and 2degrees
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/vocus-2degrees-merger-preliminary-issues
- Published: 2022-01-28
- Author: Commerce Commission New Zealand

This report outlines the Commerce Commission's preliminary investigation into the proposed merger between Vocus Group Limited and Two Degrees Group Limited. Registered on 5 January 2022, the application involves Voyage Digital (NZ) Limited acquiring 100% of Orcon and 2degrees. The Commission is assessing potential horizontal unilateral, coordinated, and vertical effects across national retail markets for fixed-line voice, broadband, and mobile services, where the parties currently hold significant market positions.

### Satellite Communications: Market Trends and Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/satellite-communications-market-trends-outlook
- Published: 2022-01-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the evolving satellite communications landscape in Australia and New Zealand, focusing on the emergence of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations. It examines the shift from niche regional connectivity to mainstream enterprise and consumer applications, driven by high-throughput satellites and software-defined networks. The analysis covers key market players including Optus, Telstra, NBN Co, Starlink, and OneWeb, while evaluating the strategic implications for corporate WANs, industrial IoT, and government universal service obligations.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of Nov 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-november-2021
- Published: 2021-12-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the key events shaping the AU/NZ B2B telecommunications market, focusing on Aussie Broadband's $344 million bid for Over The Wire (OTW). It evaluates the strategic shift of smaller players into managed services and network applications to challenge incumbents. Additionally, the brief examines 5G enterprise initiatives from Telstra and Optus, and Macquarie Telecom's aggressive plan to double its SD-WAN footprint to 12,000 sites within two years to capture mid-market demand.

### Monthly Telco Roundup of Nov 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-telco-roundup-nov-2021
- Published: 2021-12-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key telecommunications trends in Australia and New Zealand for November 2021, focusing on new regulatory powers for SMS scam blocking, the growing momentum of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, and the strategic expansion of telcos into adjacent utility markets. It highlights Telstra's entry into the energy retail sector and Optus's potential partnership with OneWeb. The analysis evaluates how these shifts impact competitive landscapes, EBITDA growth targets, and consumer security expectations across the Australasian region.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of Oct 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-october-2021
- Published: 2021-11-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the B2B telecommunications market in Australia and New Zealand, focusing on digital transformation acceleration, edge computing roadmaps, and NBN Co's expansion into Business Fibre Zones. It highlights that 46% of SMBs plan to increase spending on business internet over the next 12 months. The analysis identifies key opportunities for telcos to act as trusted advisors by providing industry-specific solutions, particularly in sectors like transport, manufacturing, and retail where digital maturity varies significantly.

### Australia Telco Market Forecast & Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-telco-market-forecast-outlook-2021
- Published: 2021-10-15
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the Australian telecommunications market from FY20 to FY25. It analyzes the structural decline of fixed voice services against the growth of mobile, fixed broadband, and corporate data segments. The analysis highlights the impact of COVID-19 on mobile revenues and the subsequent recovery driven by 5G adoption and NBN migration. It also examines infrastructure monetization trends, specifically the sale of tower assets by major operators like Telstra and Optus.

### B2B Survey: Business Sentiment and Digital Priorities
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/b2b-survey-business-sentiment-digital-priorities
- Published: 2021-10-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyzes business sentiment and digital priorities across 497 ICT decision makers in Australia and New Zealand. Findings indicate a divergence in recovery expectations, with 55% of Australian enterprises optimistic about returning to pre-pandemic levels compared to a more cautious SMB sector. The analysis highlights a strategic shift toward digital maturity, particularly in the IM&T and healthcare sectors, where technology is being leveraged to drive operational efficiency and customer experience in a post-COVID landscape.

### B2B Fixed Services in Australia: Market Forecast
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/b2b-fixed-services-australia-forecast-2025
- Published: 2021-10-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report forecasts the Australian B2B fixed services market through 2025, analyzing the transition from legacy voice and MPLS to IP-based solutions and managed services. While the total market is expected to remain relatively flat with a -0.4% 5Y CAGR, significant shifts are occurring between segments. The enterprise sector is projected to grow at 0.4% CAGR, driven by digital transformation, while the SMB segment faces a -1.4% decline. The analysis covers fixed voice, data, internet, and network services across 19 industry verticals.

### Monthly Telco Roundup of Oct 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-telco-roundup-october-2021
- Published: 2021-10-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the strategic acquisition of Digicel Pacific by Telstra for $US1.6 billion, supported by $US1.33 billion from the Australian Government. It evaluates the evolving satellite market, noting Starlink's $139 monthly pricing and NBN Co's regulatory filings for mobility services. Additionally, the report forecasts 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) to capture over 13% of the Australian household broadband market by 2025, driven by Telstra's new $85 per month unlimited 1TB offering.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of Sep 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-september-2021
- Published: 2021-10-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key events shaping the B2B telecommunications market in Australia and New Zealand as of September 2021. It highlights a significant divergence in business sentiment, with over 50% of large enterprises expecting a recovery to pre-pandemic levels within a year, compared to more cautious outlooks from SMBs. The analysis further explores the acceleration of 5G enterprise services, specifically initiatives by Optus and Spark, and the defensive strategic value of Microsoft Operator Connect for telcos facing declining fixed voice revenues.

### New Zealand Telco Market Forecast & Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-telco-market-forecast-outlook-2021
- Published: 2021-09-16
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report forecasts a negative growth for the New Zealand telecommunications market with a retail CAGR of -1.4% between 2019 and 2024. While fixed broadband is expected to grow at a 1.7% CAGR reaching NZ$1.55bn, these gains are offset by a structural 9.8% annual decline in fixed voice revenue. Mobile remains the largest segment, projected to reach NZ$2.8bn by 2024, driven by 5G rollouts and a migration toward postpaid plans and bundled offerings.

### Fixed Broadband in Australia and NZ: Industry Snapshot & Forecast
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fixed-broadband-australia-nz-forecast-2021
- Published: 2021-09-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report assesses the fixed broadband markets in Australia and New Zealand, estimating the opportunity for telcos and assessing key trends driving growth. It forecasts a 2.6% 5Y CAGR for Australia and 1.6% for New Zealand through 2024. The analysis covers the transition from legacy copper to fibre and fixed wireless, the competitive impact of 5G FWA, and the evolving regulatory environments in both nations, specifically focusing on NBN Co and Chorus.

### Monthly Telco Roundup of August 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-telco-roundup-august-2021
- Published: 2021-09-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the key events and trends shaping the telecommunication markets in Australia and New Zealand following the FY21 financial results. It highlights the persistent pressure on EBITDA margins for major Retail Service Providers (RSPs) due to rising NBN wholesale costs and intense competition. The analysis explores how operators like Telstra and TPG are pivoting toward 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and enterprise services to establish new revenue streams and offset legacy declines.

### Monthly Telco Roundup of July 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-telco-roundup-july-2021
- Published: 2021-08-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the key events shaping the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications markets during July 2021. It focuses on the impact of renewed COVID-19 lockdowns, which drove national data demand to a peak of 20.39 Tbps. The analysis covers the ongoing CVC pricing debate, the rising importance of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in brand management, and significant public and private investments in regional infrastructure, including a $1.1 billion NBN construction contract and new data centre builds.

### 5-year Outlook: Telco Market in Australia and NZ
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/5-year-telco-outlook-australia-nz-2021
- Published: 2021-07-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the technology and market trends shaping the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications sectors over a five-year horizon. It identifies a fundamental challenge in reversing declining returns on invested capital (ROIC) amidst stalled population growth and vertical industry disintegration. While 5G and edge computing offer long-term transformative potential, the report forecasts a revenue gap until the middle of the decade, forcing operators to prioritize structural separation of infrastructure assets and aggressive cost-reduction programs to maintain financial viability.

### Monthly Telco Roundup – June 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-telco-roundup-june-2021
- Published: 2021-07-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses key telecommunications trends in Australia and New Zealand for June 2021, focusing on the $2.8 billion sale of Telstra's tower business and the ACCC's findings on mobile price increases. It examines the shift toward infrastructure monetization and the impact of the TPG/Vodafone merger on market competition. The analysis also covers government funding for regional connectivity, including $27 million in new grants, and the ongoing decline in industry EBITDA from $9.1 billion in FY19 to a forecast $6.9 billion in FY21.

### Private wireless networks: the industry vertical opportunity in Australia
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/private-wireless-networks-australia-industry-verticals
- Published: 2021-07-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the addressable market for LTE/5G private wireless networks (PWNs) across key Australian industry verticals. It identifies manufacturing, natural resources, transport, and utilities as the primary drivers of adoption, representing 30% of enterprises with 200+ employees but expected to account for two-thirds of all PWN projects. The analysis evaluates business metrics including IVA growth and EBITDA margins to determine the propensity for digital transformation and the specific use cases that justify the transition from Wi-Fi to dedicated cellular infrastructure.

### Green Paper media reform: a new agenda takes shape
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/green-paper-media-reform-agenda
- Published: 2021-06-24
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Government's media reform Green Paper, focusing on the proposed 600MHz spectrum refarming and the extension of local content requirements to SVOD and AVOD players. While there is in-principle support for spectrum reform, significant resistance exists regarding the 2025 deadline and the technical feasibility of the proposed three-multiplex model. The report evaluates submissions from major stakeholders including FreeTV, Telstra, Optus, and global streaming platforms, concluding that current proposals for content rule harmonisation are unlikely to proceed in their current form.

### NZ ICT Forecast and Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-ict-forecast-outlook-2021-2026
- Published: 2021-06-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the New Zealand ICT market through FY26, analyzing the recovery following COVID-19 declines. The total ICT services market, encompassing business and enterprise segments, is projected to grow at a 9.2% 5-year CAGR to reach $3.5 billion. Growth is primarily driven by the rapid adoption of cloud services (13.0% CAGR) and cybersecurity (7.3% CAGR), as organizations prioritize remote work flexibility and digital transformation over legacy fixed voice and on-premise infrastructure.

### NBN’s SAU Discussion Paper: Putting the broadband market on a new path
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-sau-discussion-paper-pricing-path
- Published: 2021-06-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses NBN Co’s June 2021 Discussion Paper regarding a new wholesale pricing scheme under the Special Access Undertaking (SAU). It evaluates three proposed pricing constructs, ranging from a 25% reduction in CVC overage to a completely flat-rate AVC-only model. The analysis highlights how these changes will shift industry economics, rewarding RSPs focused on high-speed unlimited plans while potentially displacing low-usage customers toward 5G fixed wireless alternatives as NBN seeks to recover invested capital through programmed real price increases.

### Australia ICT Forecast and Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-ict-forecast-outlook-2026
- Published: 2021-06-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the Australian ICT services market from FY21 to FY26, focusing on Unified Communications, Cloud, and Cybersecurity. The total market is projected to grow at a 10.6% CAGR, reaching $24.7 billion by FY26. Growth is primarily driven by digital transformation initiatives in the enterprise segment (200+ employees), which is expected to reach $15.2 billion. The analysis details segment-specific drivers, including the shift from legacy fixed voice to IP-based solutions and the rapid expansion of IaaS and PaaS.

### Edge computing: the edge infrastructure opportunity
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/edge-computing-infrastructure-opportunity-telcos
- Published: 2021-06-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses the emerging edge infrastructure market, identifying a USD 61 billion global opportunity by 2028. While hyperscalers currently dominate the end-to-end solution space, telecommunications operators in Australia and New Zealand are well-positioned to capture value through the infrastructure layer. The analysis details how telcos can leverage existing assets like towers and exchanges, alongside technologies such as 5G, mmWave, and network slicing, to provide the low-latency connectivity required for autonomous vehicles, AR/VR, and industrial automation.

### Venture Insights AU survey 2021: Broadband market converges as NBN migration reaches 89%
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/au-broadband-survey-2021-nbn-migration
- Published: 2021-05-14
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the 2021 Australian broadband market based on a survey of 1,019 respondents. It finds that 87% of households have a fixed broadband connection, with NBN migration reaching 89% of those connections. The study highlights a growing commoditisation of the market where price is the primary driver for the 30% of users considering a provider switch. Additionally, it explores the persistent demand for connectivity driven by work-from-home trends and the emerging appetite for 5G fixed wireless alternatives.

### Monthly Telco Roundup
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-telco-roundup-may-2021
- Published: 2021-05-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the structural shifts in the AU/NZ telecommunications market, focusing on the divestment of passive infrastructure and the expansion into adjacent utilities. It highlights Telstra's entry into the energy market to leverage its 22 million customer base and examines the $196.1 million Australian federal budget allocation for regional connectivity. Additionally, the brief evaluates the emergence of LEO satellite services, such as Starlink, as a commercially viable alternative to traditional fixed broadband in regional areas.

### B2B Mobile Services in Australia: Market Forecast
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/b2b-mobile-services-australia-forecast-2025
- Published: 2021-04-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report forecasts the Australian B2B mobile services market, projecting growth to $4.7 billion by FY25 after a 6.7% CAGR decline during the FY19-21 pandemic period. While mobile carriage remains the largest revenue contributor at $3.7 billion in FY22, growth is increasingly driven by IoT connectivity and managed mobility. The analysis segments performance across SMB and Enterprise tiers, highlighting a faster recovery for large enterprises and the strategic role of 5G in driving future migration to higher-value plans.

### Venture Insights survey 2021: Consumer interest in mobile media and mobile gaming stable at pre-COVID levels
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/venture-insights-2021-mobile-media-gaming-survey
- Published: 2021-04-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the 2021 consumer survey results regarding mobile media and gaming habits in Australia. It finds that one-third of Australians watch video streaming services on their mobile phones daily, a frequency that has returned to pre-pandemic levels. The data highlights a persistent opportunity for telecommunications providers to upsell 5G services, as 33% of mobile gamers and 36% of sports streamers express a willingness to pay more for enhanced 5G-enabled experiences.

### Venture Insights NZ survey 2021: Mobile media use and telco opportunity grow
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-mobile-media-5g-opportunity-2021
- Published: 2021-04-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyzes the 2021 Venture Insights consumer survey of 1,009 New Zealanders regarding mobile media and gaming habits. It finds that 28% of respondents watch video streaming services on their mobile phones daily, while the share of those who never watch mobile video has fallen significantly. The data highlights a persistent opportunity for telcos to upsell 5G services, particularly to the 21% of sports fans and 20% of mobile gamers willing to pay more for enhanced experiences.

### Telstra 1H21 update reflects industry trends
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-1h21-update-industry-trends
- Published: 2021-02-12
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses Telstra's 1H21 financial results, highlighting a 10.4% decline in total income to $12 billion. Despite adding 80k retail post-paid mobile and 196k NBN connections, revenue fell across all product categories due to ARPU pressure and NBN migration. The analysis explores strategic responses, including the potential $4-5 billion tower asset sale and the acceleration of 5G coverage to 75% of the population by June 2021 to combat margin compression.

### Business update for the third quarter and nine months ended 31 December 2020
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/singtel-q3-fy21-business-update
- Published: 2021-02-10
- Author: Venture Insights

This report details Singtel's financial performance for the quarter ended 31 December 2020, highlighting a 3.2% decline in operating revenue to S$4,239 million. While mobile services remained subdued due to travel restrictions impacting roaming and prepaid revenues, the Group saw robust growth in ICT services led by NCS and Australia Enterprise. The results reflect a second consecutive quarter of revenue recovery, supported by strong operating momentum from regional associate Airtel in India.

### Sports rights market hits an inflection point: new distribution players and models arising
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/sports-rights-market-inflection-point
- Published: 2021-02-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, Ph.D.

This report analyses the structural shift in the Australian sports rights market following the COVID-19 disruption. It highlights the unsustainable trajectory of rights costs, which grew at nearly 8% CAGR over the decade prior to 2020, while traditional broadcaster revenues declined by over 2% CAGR since 2013. The analysis forecasts a transition toward fragmented rights packages, increased participation from telco and tech players like Amazon and Optus, and the potential emergence of direct-to-consumer distribution models.

### Monthly Enterprise Roundup of Dec-Jan 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-enterprise-roundup-january-2022
- Published: 2021-02-01
- Author: Claudio Castelli

This report analyses key trends in the AU/NZ B2B telecommunications market, focusing on the strategic shift toward vertical-specific industrial solutions and the acceleration of cloud adoption. It evaluates TPG Telecom's ambition to reach $1 billion in annual enterprise revenue by 2025, a goal requiring approximately 7% total growth over four years. The analysis further explores how Telstra and Optus are leveraging 5G and IoT acquisitions to deepen their presence in sectors like mining, agribusiness, and retail.

### Battery backup for telco infrastructure: options and necessity
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/battery-backup-telco-infrastructure-resilience
- Published: 2021-01-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report examines the critical role of battery backup in telecommunications infrastructure, particularly in the wake of the 2019-20 Australian bushfire season. It evaluates current and emerging battery technologies, including lithium-ion and redox flow, while detailing the specific power requirements for mobile base stations, NBN services, and 5G small cells. The analysis also covers the Australian Government's $37.1 million funding package aimed at strengthening telco resilience and the impact of the Mobile Blackspot Program on regional connectivity.

### Edge Computing – defining the market and business models
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/edge-computing-market-business-models
- Published: 2021-01-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar

This report analyses the rise of edge computing as a critical enabler for IoT and 5G, driven by plunging sensor costs and the need for real-time data processing. It identifies a complex value chain comprising devices, hardware, connectivity, and orchestration. For telcos, edge computing represents a strategic opportunity to regain bargaining power lost to cloud hyperscalers by utilizing existing physical infrastructure like mobile base stations. The brief details four specific business models—Edge Hosting, SI Extension, Edge Cloud, and Full Stack—to capture new revenue streams.

### Taking Free-to-Air TV online in Australia: opportunities and challenges
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-fta-tv-online-migration-challenges
- Published: 2020-12-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report addresses the issues associated with migrating free-to-air television to online delivery in Australia. It examines digital infrastructure capacity, media and telecommunications business models, and consumer technology adoption. While a partial migration is commercially viable, a complete shift faces significant hurdles including a potential $4 billion annual cost to retail service providers and the fact that 20% of households lack fixed broadband. The analysis highlights nbn Multicast as a potential technical solution to mitigate capacity costs.

### FY20 Investor Day – Telstra counting on its 5G leadership to improve revenues and margins
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-fy20-investor-day-5g-strategy
- Published: 2020-11-16
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses Telstra's FY20 Investor Day strategy, focusing on its 5G rollout reaching 44% of the AU population and the planned corporate restructure into three subsidiaries: InfraCo Fixed, InfraCo Towers, and ServeCo. It evaluates Telstra's entry into the energy market, where 33% of consumers consider mobile-utility bundles, and the company's path to achieving $7.5-$8.5 billion in underlying EBITDA by FY23 to support its 16-cent dividend policy amidst increasing competition from Optus and TPG.

### New Zealand Consumer Broadband Behaviour Survey - Round 2
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-consumer-broadband-behaviour-survey-round-2
- Published: 2020-11-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the second round of the New Zealand Consumer Broadband Behaviour Survey, comparing October 2020 data against April 2020 benchmarks. It tracks the evolution of online behaviors including remote work, telehealth, and online shopping as New Zealand emerged from lockdown. Key findings highlight a significant shift toward high-speed fibre connections (65%) and unlimited data plans (69%), driven by increased reliance on home internet for professional and essential services.

### The Australian tower market 2020 – Telstra’s TowerCo
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-tower-market-telstra-towerco-update
- Published: 2020-11-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report assesses the Australian mobile communications tower market and the drivers for tower and small cell demand. It analyzes the shifting commercial dynamics as Telstra and Optus move to monetise tower assets, valued at over $488,000 per site. With the market for traditional macro-towers maturing, the focus of competition is shifting toward network capacity and small cell deployment, where 5G take-up is expected to reach 67% by 2025 under a no-premium pricing strategy.

### MVNO Update: Has the Australian MVNO market peaked?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-mvno-market-peak-forecast
- Published: 2020-11-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the Australian MVNO market, which grew from 1.5m subscribers in 2010 to 3.4m in 2019. Despite a COVID-19 boost in FY20, the market is forecast to decline significantly. The analysis explores how MNO-owned sub-brands like Felix, Gomo, and Belong, alongside Optus' acquisition of Amaysim, are cannibalizing the independent MVNO sector. It further examines the role of 5G as a wholesale product and the increasing consumer focus on low-price plans driven by economic shifts.

### nbn’s enterprise market strategy: complementary or competitive?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-enterprise-market-strategy-competitive-complementary
- Published: 2020-10-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the impact of nbn's entry into the Australian enterprise connectivity market, which was historically dominated by Telstra. It examines nbn's strategy to achieve a $1.0b annual revenue target by 2022 and the resulting competitive pressure on incumbent providers. The analysis forecasts a -3.6% CAGR decline in Corporate Data and IP revenues between 2019 and 2023 as nbn's open-access model commoditises Layer 2 fibre and empowers smaller retail service providers to challenge the established infrastructure oligopoly.

### Australian Household 5G Fixed Wireless Substitution Forecast
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-5g-fixed-wireless-substitution-forecast
- Published: 2020-10-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report forecasts that MNO 5G fixed wireless subscriptions in Australia will reach 1.2 million by June 2024, representing 12% of all households. The analysis suggests that mobile network operators will aggressively target existing NBN subscribers, particularly those on lower-speed plans with lighter data usage, to improve retail margins. While consumer interest is high, with 38% considering a move to 5G fixed wireless, actual take-up will be constrained by network rollout strategies and the technical limitations of mmWave technology in urban environments.

### Australia consumer and SMB broadband pricing trends – Broadband differentiation shifts to 5G
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-consumer-smb-broadband-pricing-trends-5g
- Published: 2020-09-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar

This report analyses the competitive environment in the Australian fixed broadband market, focusing on consumer and SMB price trends across major RSPs including Telstra, Optus, TPG, and Aussie Broadband. With the NBN rollout 99% complete, the market is highly concentrated with the four largest RSPs representing 92% of share. The analysis explores how RSPs are responding to shrinking margins by streamlining product offerings, increasing entry-level pricing, and emerging 5G fixed wireless as a key product differentiator to improve profitability.

### Australian Small Business Survey: 5G broadband battleground for Optus, Telstra, TPG and NBN
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-smb-5g-broadband-survey
- Published: 2020-09-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report presents survey results across 602 small businesses, highlighting views on willingness to pay, churn intentions, and 5G mobile and fixed wireless broadband. It finds that small businesses prioritize network performance (83%) and data allowance (76%) over price (71%), suggesting a willingness to pay for quality. However, the COVID-19 economic downturn and the substitutability of consumer 5G pricing may limit the ability of operators to extract a significant business price premium.

### New Zealand Telco Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-telco-market-outlook-2020-2
- Published: 2020-08-27
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report forecasts the New Zealand telecommunications market to decline at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2019-23, reaching a total retail revenue of NZ$4.8bn. While fixed broadband is expected to grow at a 2.1% CAGR driven by UFB migration and COVID-19 demand, this will be offset by a 13.5% annual contraction in fixed voice and a 0.8% decline in mobile revenues. The analysis covers rollout progress for UFB, 5G deployment strategies, and the rising influence of MVNOs and utility-telco convergence.

### Optus 1QFY21 and Vocus FY20 earnings update: revenues fall amidst a declining telco market
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-vocus-earnings-update-covid-impact
- Published: 2020-08-19
- Author: Nitish Kumar

This report analyzes the financial performance of Optus and Vocus following their latest earnings updates. Optus reported a 10.8% decline in consumer operating revenue to A$1,728mn for 1QFY21, while Vocus Group revenue fell 6% to A$1,778.2mn for FY20. Both operators experienced significant pressure on mobile revenues as COVID-19 lockdowns shifted consumer reliance toward fixed broadband. The analysis highlights the strategic pivot toward 5G fixed wireless and bundling strategies to mitigate margin erosion in a highly competitive Australian telco market.

### Telstra and nbn Co FY20 update: increasing wireless and enterprise competition will drive price pressure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-nbn-fy20-wireless-enterprise-competition
- Published: 2020-08-17
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the FY20 results of Telstra and nbn Co, highlighting a shift toward increased competition in the fixed broadband and enterprise sectors. While nbn ARPU grew to $45 in FY20, the emergence of 5G fixed wireless from MNOs like Telstra and Optus poses a significant threat to nbn's market share. Simultaneously, nbn Co's aggressive entry into the enterprise fibre market is driving a forecast 3.6% CAGR decline in corporate data and IP revenues through FY23, primarily impacting dominant incumbent Telstra.

### The Australian tower market 2020
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-tower-market-2020-analysis
- Published: 2020-08-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report assesses the Australian mobile communications tower market and the drivers for tower and small cell demand. It analyzes the shift from coverage-based competition to capacity-based differentiation, forecasting a -0.6% CAGR decline in the retail mobile market over 2019-23. The analysis explores the strategic rationale for MNOs like Optus and TPG to divest macro-tower assets to fund 5G infrastructure, while highlighting that small cell growth will likely accelerate toward the middle of the decade as macro-tower capacity saturates.

### The New Era of Voice Commerce: Be in It to Win It
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/voice-commerce-era-australia-market-growth
- Published: 2020-08-01
- Author: Jessica Wang

This report analyzes the rapid rise of voice technology and its transformation of consumer purchasing behavior. With the US voice shopping market projected to grow from $2 billion in 2018 to $40 billion by 2022, Australia is following closely as the fastest-growing consumer technology market to date. The analysis explores the shift from traditional SEO to voice search optimization, the role of smart speakers versus smartphones, and strategic implications for media and telecommunications companies looking to monetize interactive voice segments.

### New Zealand Consumer Broadband Behavioural Survey
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-consumer-broadband-behavioural-survey-2020
- Published: 2020-07-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the results of a consumer survey conducted in April 2020 to understand changes in New Zealand broadband usage behavior due to COVID-19. The study, based on 1,011 respondents, tracks the shift in digital activities including remote work, telehealth, and online education. Key findings highlight that while broadband satisfaction is high at 82%, the perceived importance of high-speed access has increased significantly, with 73% of users now rating it as 'Very Important'.

### Australian Telecommunications Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-telecommunications-market-outlook-2020
- Published: 2020-07-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the Australian telecommunications market outlook through 2023, forecasting a retail market contraction of -0.6% CAGR. While mobile and fixed broadband segments show slight growth, they are offset by structural declines in fixed voice and a COVID-19 induced slowdown in the corporate data and IP sector. The analysis evaluates the impact of the TPG-Vodafone merger, the 5G investment cycle, and increasing consumer resistance to price premiums in a sluggish economic environment.

### Technology and connectivity critical for Australian SMBs
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-smb-technology-connectivity-survey
- Published: 2020-07-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the critical role of technology and connectivity for Australian Small-to-Medium Businesses (SMBs) in the wake of COVID-19. With SMBs contributing approximately 57% of Australia's GDP and 7 million jobs, their digital transformation is essential for economic recovery. The findings, based on a survey of over 600 IT decision-makers, highlight a significant shift toward remote work, with 68% of respondents implementing work-from-home arrangements and 75% planning to upgrade to 5G within 24 months to improve productivity.

### OptiComm acquisition strengthens Uniti’s competitive offer
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/uniti-opticomm-acquisition-infrastructure-analysis
- Published: 2020-06-25
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses Uniti Group's $532mn acquisition of OptiComm, a move that consolidates two major non-NBN infrastructure players into a combined entity valued at over $1bn. The deal significantly expands Uniti's footprint to over 110,000 active premises and a pipeline of 188,000 lots, primarily in Victoria and NSW. The analysis explores the strategic shift toward brownfield competition, the competitive threat to NBN's greenfield dominance, and the potential for 5G fixed wireless to serve as a high-speed alternative in regional areas.

### Venture survey: NZ mobile consumers driven by price
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-mobile-consumer-price-drivers-2020
- Published: 2020-06-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the New Zealand mobile consumer market based on a February 2020 survey of 1,000 respondents. It identifies price as the primary driver for 92% of consumers, significantly outpacing network performance and coverage. The findings highlight a growing interest in Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) and a general reluctance to pay premiums for 5G technology, suggesting sustained ARPU pressure for major Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in the post-COVID-19 economic environment.

### Optus Q4FY20: a challenging quarter likely to have implications for mobile ARPUs
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-q4fy20-earnings-arpu-pressure
- Published: 2020-06-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes Optus' Q4FY20 financial performance, highlighting a significant 84% decline in net profit to $37 million. The results reflect the dual impact of the Australian bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely curtailed handset sales and international roaming revenue. With mobile service revenues down 5.5% and enterprise EBITDA falling by 59.1%, the analysis explores the long-term implications for 5G adoption, spectrum auctions, and the potential sale of tower assets to stabilize the balance sheet.

### Australian Consumer Behavioural Survey – 2020 Part 2: Emerging Trends
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-consumer-behavioural-survey-2020-emerging-trends
- Published: 2020-06-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses emerging trends in telehealth, online education, and social communication following the COVID-19 crisis. Based on a survey of 1,006 Australian broadband users, the findings reveal that 48% of respondents who had a medical consultation in the two months prior to April 2020 used telehealth. The study highlights significant growth in online primary and secondary education, with usage of online classrooms increasing from 20% to 30% post-outbreak, alongside a 10% rise in social video calling.

### Australian Consumer Behavioural Survey – 2020 Part 3: Opportunities for growth in local online shopping
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-consumer-local-online-shopping-growth
- Published: 2020-06-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the shift in Australian consumer habits during the COVID-19 lockdown, revealing that 49% of respondents increased their online shopping expenditure. While 70% of consumers express a desire to support local businesses, a significant gap exists due to limited online presence from these vendors. The findings highlight a critical need for small and medium enterprises to invest in e-commerce functionality, innovation, and delivery services to capture the growing demand in both metropolitan and regional markets.

### Local start-ups drive supply chain improvement and environmental sustainability
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/local-startups-supply-chain-sustainability
- Published: 2020-05-21
- Author: Bob Jin

This report examines the role of local Australian start-ups in improving environmental and economic outcomes within supply chains. It identifies four critical sectors—logistics, agriculture, food and beverage, and Greentech—where innovation is driving sustainability. With over $250m raised by shortlisted start-ups in the last five years, the analysis explores how technologies like IoT and AI are creating new growth avenues for the telco and IT industries while reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

### Imperative to improve self-service customer experience channels
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-telco-self-service-cx-benchmarking
- Published: 2020-05-01
- Author: Umesh Thanai

This report analyses the self-service customer experience (CX) performance of ten ANZ telcos across IVR, website, and social media channels. Benchmarking reveals that leading operators maintain surprisingly poor IVR structures with over 100 options and near-zero self-containment. The study highlights how COVID-19 has amplified these existing gaps, driving call centre overloads and customer frustration. It provides a strategic response plan for operators to transition to a 'new normal' by elevating scalable self-serve channels and fixing long-standing digital friction points.

### Australian Consumer Behavioural Survey – 2020 Part 1: Working from Home
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-consumer-behavioural-survey-working-from-home
- Published: 2020-05-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the first of three behavioural change surveys conducted by Venture Insights and commissioned by NBN Co, focusing on the shift to remote work during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Based on a national sample of 1,006 broadband-connected respondents, the study explores how access to fast internet has influenced job security and productivity. Key findings indicate that 81% of remote workers feel more secure in their roles due to fast broadband, while 67% anticipate a permanent increase in working from home post-pandemic.

### COVID-19 impact on mobile ARPUs, 5G adoption and MVNO wholesale prices
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/covid-19-impact-mobile-arpu-5g-mvno-2
- Published: 2020-04-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the immediate and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Australian mobile market, focusing on ARPU pressure and 5G adoption. Consumer interest in 5G has declined to 43% in 2020, down from 52% in 2019, as price remains the primary purchasing factor for 91% of respondents. The shift toward WFH has spiked mobile call volumes and data usage, yet voluntary data bonuses from major telcos mean these traffic increases will not translate into immediate revenue gains.

### COVID-19 and the ANZ Telco market: Forecast market impact and Telco responses to date
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/covid-19-anz-telco-market-impact
- Published: 2020-04-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications markets, forecasting a stall in consumer growth throughout 2020. While mobile revenues face downward pressure from a 4% ARPU compression and reduced sales activity, fixed broadband demonstrates significant resilience with connections expected to rise 2% above baseline. The analysis evaluates telco responses across product, channel, and network categories, highlighting that while immediate needs were met, long-term strategic upsell opportunities remain largely untapped compared to international peers.

### COVID-19 impact on mobile ARPUs, 5G adoption and MVNO wholesale prices
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/covid-19-impact-mobile-arpu-5g-mvno
- Published: 2020-04-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the immediate and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Australian mobile market, highlighting a significant shift toward price-sensitive consumer behavior. With 91% of survey respondents identifying price as a key purchasing factor, the industry faces sustained ARPU pressure. The analysis covers telco initiatives like bonus data, the slowing momentum of 5G adoption, and the potential for MNOs to raise wholesale prices to manage declining retail margins during the inevitable economic downturn.

### Unpacking Facebook’s Deal with Reliance Jio Platforms
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/facebook-reliance-jio-platforms-deal-analysis
- Published: 2020-04-01
- Author: Shiv Putcha

This report analyzes Facebook's $5.7 billion investment for a 9.9% stake in Jio Platforms, valuing the entity at $65 billion. The deal represents a strategic pivot toward commerce in India, leveraging WhatsApp's 400 million users and Jio's 370 million subscribers. It examines the implications for the TMT sector, regulatory hurdles from the CCI, and the potential for a 'WhatsApp for Business' strategy to monetize the combined user base through hyperlocal retail and digital payments.

### Fixed broadband and COVID-19: Demand up, but ARPU under pressure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fixed-broadband-covid-demand-arpu-pressure
- Published: 2020-04-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the Australian fixed broadband market, highlighting a massive shift toward working from home (WFH). While data traffic has surged—with Zoom usage up 1211% in a single week—telcos face significant revenue headwinds. Voluntary data increases and a looming economic downturn are expected to drive consumer churn toward cheaper plans, putting sustained pressure on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) despite the increased reliance on residential networks.

### Recommendations: Dealing with COVID-19 based cyberattacks and scams and the massive increase in work from home
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/covid-19-cyber-scams-wfh-recommendations
- Published: 2020-03-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the surge in COVID-19 themed cyberattacks and the security implications of the massive global shift to remote work. With 33% of Australian consumers planning to increase work-from-home days, cyber criminals are leveraging pandemic-related misinformation and phishing to steal sensitive data. The brief provides seven immediate recommendations for businesses to secure remote staff, including hardware updates, Wi-Fi segregation, and the use of VPNs to mitigate risks from unsecure home environments.

### New Zealand Telco Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-telco-market-outlook-2020
- Published: 2020-03-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the New Zealand telecommunications market, forecasting a total retail revenue of NZ$5.5bn by 2023. It examines the structural decline of fixed voice services, the moderate growth of fixed broadband driven by UFB rollout, and the dominance of mobile revenues, which are expected to account for 61% of the market. The analysis highlights the competitive impact of 5G and Chorus's Hyperfibre, alongside the rise of challenger brands and utility-telco convergence.

### New Zealand 5G update: Still waiting on spectrum auctions with 2degrees yet to enter
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-5g-update-spectrum-auctions-2degrees
- Published: 2020-02-13
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes the 2019-2020 New Zealand 5G landscape, highlighting that while Vodafone and Spark have launched initial services, 2degrees remains on the sidelines awaiting spectrum auctions. Survey data indicates 6% of consumers intend to adopt 5G at launch, with a further 25% within two years. However, uptake is currently limited by network coverage, a lack of 5G-enabled iPhones, and pending 3.5 GHz spectrum allocations. The report also examines Chorus's 'Hyperfibre' response to the 5G fixed-wireless threat.

### Allocation limits advice for the 26 GHz spectrum allocation Consultation Paper
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/accc-26ghz-spectrum-allocation-limits-consultation
- Published: 2020-02-01
- Author: Tara Morice

This report outlines the ACCC's consultation process regarding the allocation of 2400 MHz of spectrum in the 26 GHz band across 29 defined areas. It examines the necessity of imposing allocation limits to prevent spectrum monopolisation and ensure a competitive landscape for 5G services. The paper identifies the national retail mobile, fixed broadband, and enterprise markets as key downstream sectors impacted by the upcoming 2021 auction and the concurrent apparatus licensing regime in the 26 GHz and 28 GHz bands.

### Vocus 1H20 update: Network Services and New Zealand perform well, Retail doesn’t
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/vocus-1h20-network-services-retail-update-2
- Published: 2020-02-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses Vocus Group's 1HFY20 results, highlighting a period of transition where strong performance in Network Services and New Zealand was tempered by a significant decline in the Retail segment. While statutory revenue fell 6.9% to $901.9 million, underlying EBITDA grew 1.6% to $179.3 million. The analysis focuses on the shift from legacy copper services to NBN and the strategic push into energy bundling to mitigate high churn rates in the consumer market.

### Vocus 1H20 update: Network Services and New Zealand perform well, Retail doesn’t
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/vocus-1h20-network-services-retail-update
- Published: 2020-02-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses Vocus Group's 1HFY20 results, highlighting a 1.6% increase in underlying EBITDA to $179.3m despite a 6.9% decline in statutory revenue to $901.9m. The performance reflects a stark divergence between the flagship Network Services segment, which saw 11% EBITDA growth, and the Retail division, where EBITDA fell by $11m due to legacy product erosion. The analysis evaluates the ongoing three-year transformation strategy and the impact of NBN migration on margins.

### Australian 5G update: Telstra and Optus build continues, VHA entry to influence price?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-5g-update-telstra-optus-vha
- Published: 2020-02-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the 2019 Australian 5G launch phase and forecasts market dynamics for 2020. Telstra has activated 5G in 26 cities, while Optus has deployed over 300 live sites. Despite high consumer interest, with 52% of survey respondents willing to migrate within 24 months, uptake remains constrained by coverage and device availability. The analysis highlights upcoming spectrum auctions in the 26 GHz and 850/900 MHz bands scheduled for 2021 as critical milestones for network densification and fixed wireless expansion.

### Telstra and Optus: Falling ARPUs, increase in price sensitive market and Enterprise declines
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-optus-falling-arpu-enterprise-decline
- Published: 2020-02-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the 1H20 and 3QFY20 financial results for Telstra and Optus, highlighting a trend where subscriber growth is failing to translate into revenue gains. Intense competitive pressure in the fixed and mobile markets has led to significant ARPU declines, particularly in the price-sensitive segment. The analysis explores the impact of NBN migration, the strategic importance of 5G rollout, and the unexpected decline in enterprise revenues as smaller competitors disrupt the market.

### Top 5 Telco Trends in 2021
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/top-5-telco-trends-2021
- Published: 2020-01-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report identifies five pivotal shifts in the Australian telecommunications landscape for 2021, focusing on the resurgence of Mobile Network Operator (MNO) sub-brands and the strategic monetisation of infrastructure assets. It analyzes how the completion of the NBN rollout and the 5G transition are forcing operators to adopt new structural models, such as Telstra's InfraCo split. The analysis highlights a significant competitive reset in the wholesale market, where Telstra is projected to reach a 56% market share following Optus' acquisition of Amaysim.

### The rise of smart homes in Australia – we are only getting started…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-smart-home-market-growth-2023
- Published: 2019-12-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyses the current state and future growth of the Australian smart home market, which is currently valued at approximately A$1bn. Based on a consumer survey of 1,009 respondents, the study identifies key drivers such as energy efficiency, convenience, and security. It forecasts significant expansion, with the market expected to grow fivefold by 2023. The analysis also explores brand trust, the potential for bundled telco and energy services, and the competitive landscape between global tech giants and local providers.

### IoT Growth and Cyber Security
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/iot-growth-cyber-security-risks
- Published: 2019-12-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the expected growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) and the associated cyber security risks to individuals, businesses, and society. Globally, IoT devices are forecast to grow from 5.6 billion in 2016 to 18.1 billion by 2022, with 88% of these being short-range devices. Despite this expansion, only 25% of companies have a formal strategy for securing IoT, compared to 71% for traditional cyber security. The brief explores vulnerabilities such as low-cost hardware, standard passwords, and limited update capabilities.

### Streaming wars and the future of Foxtel
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/streaming-wars-future-of-foxtel
- Published: 2019-11-08
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the structural challenges facing Foxtel as international SVOD players like Disney+ and Apple TV+ enter the Australian market. With EBITDA declining by over 40% in the last three years and ARPUs falling from $96 in 2014 to $78 in 2019, Foxtel's traditional monopoly is under severe pressure. The analysis explores the risks of subscriber cannibalisation from Kayo Sports, rising programming costs of $1.6bn, and the necessity for Foxtel to transition into a content aggregator to survive.

### Telstra FY19 Investor Day – InfraCo, Enterprise and 5G to remain in focus
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-fy19-investor-day-infraco-5g
- Published: 2019-11-01
- Author: Nitish Kumar, PhD

This report analyzes Telstra's FY19 Investor Day, highlighting the company's progress on its T22 strategy and the structural separation of InfraCo. Telstra has expanded its 5G footprint to 25 cities and is preparing for the 2021 mmWave auction. The analysis covers the rationalization of 20% of enterprise product offerings and the strategic partnership with Microsoft for gaming. Financial guidance for FY20 remains unchanged, with a focus on offsetting NBN costs through productivity improvements and reducing the capex-to-sales ratio to under 14%.

### Global & Australian gaming market trends – mobile, cloud and 5G to drive growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-gaming-market-trends-5g-mobile
- Published: 2019-10-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the transition of the gaming market toward a mobile-first landscape, noting that mobile gaming is now the dominant revenue driver globally. In Australia, the gaming market reached A$4bn in 2018, growing at 25% year-on-year. The analysis explores consumer preferences across the US, UK, China, Japan, and Australia, highlighting the critical role of 5G infrastructure in enabling cloud-based delivery models and reducing latency for high-performance gaming experiences.

### Australian MVNO Market Overview
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-mvno-market-overview-2019-2
- Published: 2019-10-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the Australian Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) market, which has grown from 1.5 million subscribers in 2010 to 3.2 million in 2018. It examines key purchase factors, the impact of 5G, and the convergence of energy and data services. With MVNOs holding over 20% share in major metropolitan areas, the study forecasts continued expansion into the business segment and niche 5G use cases like gaming and video streaming.

### Shared Infrastructure Models and O-RAN Vendor Disruption
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/shared-infrastructure-oran-vendor-disruption
- Published: 2019-10-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report examines the shift toward shared infrastructure models and the emergence of O-RAN as a disruptive force in the telecommunications sector. With RAN representing up to 70% of total network costs, operators are increasingly looking at active and passive sharing to achieve savings of up to 30%. The analysis covers regional blackspot programs in Australia, neutral host trials in New Zealand, and the strategic implications of the O-RAN Alliance, which now includes 22 operator members seeking to break the vendor triopoly.

### eSports and 5G – can telcos cash in…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/esports-5g-telco-revenue-opportunity
- Published: 2019-09-24
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the intersection of 5G technology and the eSports market in Australia, identifying a significant revenue opportunity for telecommunications providers. With global eSports audiences projected to reach 557 million by 2021, the sector offers a high-engagement channel to reach affluent younger demographics. The analysis highlights that 60% of eSports viewers are willing to pay a premium for 5G mobile plans, significantly higher than the 19% recorded for general survey respondents, positioning eSports as a critical 5G use case.

### TPG FY19 update – there’s a lot riding on the merger…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-fy19-earnings-merger-update
- Published: 2019-09-05
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses TPG's FY19 financial results, which saw reported profits drop 56% to A$174mn following a significant write-down of spectrum assets. The company faces multiple headwinds, including the cessation of its mobile network rollout and margin compression from NBN migration. While the Corporate division remains a growth opportunity with a 5% revenue increase in Data/Internet, the outlook remains heavily dependent on the outcome of the proposed merger with Vodafone Australia (VHA).

### Use cases for AI in Telco: An era of mainstream adoption
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/ai-telco-mainstream-adoption-use-cases
- Published: 2019-09-01
- Author: Sameer Parker

This report analyses the mainstream adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) within the telecommunications sector, focusing on tier 1 telcos and RSPs. It identifies three primary areas of adoption: network applications, customer service, and sales/retention. The analysis forecasts that AI-driven initiatives can deliver a 1-2% reduction in network capex, a 10% improvement in sales hit-rates, and a 90% reduction in customer support wait times. It provides a strategic framework for telcos to transition from manual business intelligence to automated machine learning at scale.

### Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: August 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-australian-tmt-wrap-august-2019
- Published: 2019-08-31
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Australian Telecommunications, Media, and Technology (TMT) sectors for August 2019. It details major corporate actions including Nine Entertainment's $275.4 million enterprise value offer for Macquarie Media and Zip Co's acquisition of PartPay. The analysis covers full-year financial results for major players like Telstra, which reported a 3.6% revenue decline to $27.8 billion, and provides sector-specific performance benchmarks and valuation multiples for leading ASX-listed entities.

### Vocus: building their identity as an infrastructure business
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/vocus-fy19-infrastructure-pivot-analysis
- Published: 2019-08-22
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes Vocus Group's FY19 financial performance and its strategic pivot toward becoming an infrastructure-focused business. While the company met its FY19 guidance with group revenues of $1,892.3 million, it faces significant headwinds in its retail segment where revenue fell 15% YoY. The analysis explores the growth in the Networks division, the impact of NBN migration on margins, and the company's outlook for FY20, which remains subdued due to competitive intensity in the Australian consumer market.

### Telstra FY19 earnings update: adjusting to a new normal…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-fy19-earnings-nbn-impact-2
- Published: 2019-08-15
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses Telstra's FY19 financial results, highlighting a 3.6% revenue decline to $27.8bn and a significant 39.6% drop in net profit to $2.1bn. The analysis explores the dual pressures of NBN-related EBITDA impacts, which reached $0.6bn in FY19, and intensifying competition in the mobile sector where postpaid ARPU fell 4.7%. It evaluates Telstra's strategic response through the T22 transformation, 5G rollout, and expansion into IoT and sports streaming to offset legacy declines.

### Telstra FY19 earnings update: adjusting to a new normal...
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-fy19-earnings-nbn-impact
- Published: 2019-08-15
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses Telstra's FY19 financial performance, highlighting a 3.6% revenue decline to $27.8bn and a significant 21.7% drop in EBITDA to $8.0bn. The results reflect the ongoing impact of the NBN rollout, which contributed $0.6bn in negative EBITDA impact, alongside intense competitive pressure in the mobile segment where postpaid ARPU fell 4.7%. While the T22 strategy shows progress in cost reduction and asset sales, the report suggests a 12-24 month wait before 5G and IoT initiatives materially offset legacy earnings erosion.

### Finally, a long-term perspective
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/infrastructure-australia-audit-telecom-long-term
- Published: 2019-08-15
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report provides a brief summary of the Telecommunications chapter within Infrastructure Australia’s (IA) recent ‘An Assessment of Australia’s Future Infrastructure Needs’. It analyzes the shift from short-term industry debates to long-term infrastructure challenges, focusing on 5G deployment, regional connectivity, and the inherent tensions within the nbn investment model. The report highlights that while 5G can accelerate digital transformation, success depends on addressing planning challenges and evolving infrastructure sharing models to balance competition with efficiency.

### Optus 1QFY20 earnings update: 5G and Optus Sport will drive growth…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/optus-1qfy20-earnings-5g-sport-growth
- Published: 2019-08-08
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses Optus' 1QFY20 financial performance, highlighting a 3.3% revenue increase to $2,250mn despite a 7% decline in mobile service revenues. Growth was primarily driven by a 40% surge in mobile equipment sales and NBN migration payments. The analysis focuses on the strategic shift toward 5G handset launches in September 2019 and the success of the Optus Sport platform, which has reached 0.7mn subscribers, as critical drivers for future subscriber retention and ARPU stabilization.

### VHA and TPG need a Plan B
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/vha-tpg-merger-plan-b-analysis
- Published: 2019-08-01
- Author: Simon Brookes

This report analyses the regulatory and legal landscape surrounding the proposed $15 billion merger between TPG and VHA. Following the ACCC's opposition in May 2019, the parties have escalated the matter to the Federal Court. The analysis evaluates the 'counterfactual' arguments regarding TPG's ability to build a fourth mobile network despite the Huawei 5G ban and VHA's claims of financial insolvency. It concludes that the merger parties likely require a 'Plan B' undertaking to secure approval.

### Finally, a long-term perspective!
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/infrastructure-australia-audit-telco-long-term
- Published: 2019-08-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the Telecommunications chapter of Infrastructure Australia’s (IA) 2019 audit, identifying long-term challenges across transport, energy, and water sectors. It highlights the critical role of mobile internet and fixed broadband in driving productivity, while addressing the 'inherent tension' between NBN user outcomes and taxpayer return on investment. Key focus areas include regional mobile blackspots, the 5G service opportunity, and the growing digital divide where the lowest 20% of households spend 6.2% of disposable income on telecommunications.

### Australian MVNO market overview – no longer just about price
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-mvno-market-overview-2019
- Published: 2019-07-24
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the Australian Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) market, which has grown from 1.5 million subscribers in 2010 to 3.2 million in 2018. While MVNOs hold a 13% national market share, their penetration exceeds 20% in major metropolitan areas. The analysis explores how players like Amaysim, Kogan, and Woolworths are diversifying beyond price-based competition into bundled energy, insurance, and refurbished device offerings to combat margin compression and prepare for the 5G transition.

### Vocus Strategy update: leverage fibre, subsea and mobile to build Enterprise, Government & Wholesale market share
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/vocus-strategy-update-turnaround-analysis
- Published: 2019-07-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses Vocus Group's strategic pivot following its July 2019 strategy day and four unsuccessful acquisition bids. Facing intense NBN-driven margin compression in the consumer sector, Vocus is reorganising into three units—Network Services, Retail, and NZ—to better utilise its 25,000km fibre network and subsea assets. The company maintains FY19 underlying EBITDA guidance of $350-$370m while targeting market share growth in Enterprise (4.5%) and Government (11.5%) sectors through improved infrastructure utilisation and 5G backhaul opportunities.

### Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: June 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-australian-tmt-wrap-june-2019
- Published: 2019-06-30
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Australian Telecommunications, Media, and Technology (TMT) sectors for June 2019. Despite a relatively quiet month, significant corporate actions occurred, including Vocus Group's termination of a $4.85 per share acquisition proposal from AGL and Afterpay Touch's successful $317.2m institutional placement. The report details sector-specific performance, EBITDA forecasts for major players like Prime Media and Arq Group, and forward EV/EBITDA multiples for leading industry stocks.

### Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: May 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-australian-tmt-wrap-may-2019
- Published: 2019-06-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Australian Telecom, Media, and Technology (TMT) sectors for May 2019. It highlights a busy month for M&A activity, including the ACCC's opposition to the VHA-TPG merger and multiple indicative proposals for Vocus and Superloop. The report also details significant acquisitions such as Hansen Technologies' $166.2m purchase of Sigma Systems and IRESS's acquisition of QuantHouse, alongside key financial results and executive appointments across the media and technology landscapes.

### Network Slicing – business transformation opportunities from media to emergency services to MVNOs
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/5g-network-slicing-business-transformation
- Published: 2019-06-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses the transformative potential of 5G network slicing across the Australian and New Zealand mobile markets, currently valued at A$22.3bn and NZ$2.9bn respectively. It explores how virtualizing network resources allows operators to move beyond 'one-size-fits-all' models to offer dedicated 'Network as a Service' (NaaS) solutions. While global forecasts suggest a 34% CAGR for slicing revenues, local adoption is expected to scale from the early 2020s as operators like Telstra trial use cases in eSports and finance.

### Transforming the live sports experience – it’s game on for 5G
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/5g-live-sports-fan-engagement-stadium
- Published: 2019-06-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report examines the transformation of the live sports ecosystem driven by 5G, AI, and wearable technology. With 60% of fans expressing interest in apps that offer real-time player stats and variable camera angles, the industry is shifting toward immersive, on-demand experiences. The analysis highlights how Australian sports codes and global telcos are deploying 5G networks and AR/VR solutions to enhance in-stadium connectivity and fan engagement, addressing a 67% year-on-year increase in stadium data usage.

### Mobile Blackspot Programs: Telstra likely to be the future winner (again)
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-mobile-blackspot-program-winner
- Published: 2019-06-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the Australian Government's Mobile Blackspot Program, focusing on the upcoming Rounds 5 & 6 which involve $160 million in federal funding. With total investment potentially reaching $295 million including state contributions, the analysis evaluates historical performance where Telstra secured 76% of base stations. It examines the strategic advantages of existing regional footprints and the challenges of 5G rollout, roaming mandates, and declining co-contribution incentives for major mobile network operators.

### An alternative model to the proposed TPG-Vodafone merger
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-vodafone-merger-alternative-netco-model
- Published: 2019-05-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the ACCC's decision to block the $15 billion merger between TPG and Vodafone (VHA) and proposes an alternative 'netco' operating model. The ACCC's primary concern is that the merger would preclude TPG from entering as a fourth mobile network operator, potentially reducing competition. Venture Insights argues that a model separating infrastructure from retail operations would allow for necessary 5G investment while fostering competition through an open-access MVNO regime and infrastructure sharing.

### Say goodbye to SIM cards – the rise of eSIMs
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/rise-of-esims-telco-impact
- Published: 2019-05-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyzes the transition from conventional SIM cards to embedded SIM (eSIM) technology, forecasting a market growth rate of 25% to 30% CAGR between 2018 and 2023. While eSIMs present a threat to traditional telco business models by simplifying the churn process, they offer significant opportunities in the IoT and wearable markets. The analysis explores the benefits for device manufacturers, the shifting power dynamics for consumers, and the strategic imperatives for telecommunications providers to adapt their pricing and bundling strategies.

### Sports streaming and 5G – everyone wants in…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/sports-streaming-5g-network-slicing-telco-opportunity
- Published: 2019-05-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the disruption of traditional sports broadcasting by OTT streaming and the emerging role of 5G technology. With 43% of sports viewers now using streaming apps, telcos have a significant opportunity to leverage 5G network slicing to offer premium, high-throughput experiences. The analysis explores consumer willingness to pay for 5G-enabled sports content, the rising costs of premium rights like AFL and NRL, and the strategic shift of traditional TV operators toward on-demand platforms to maintain audience reach.

### ‘Is Orange the new Bank?’ Telcos and Fintech
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telcos-fintech-orange-new-bank
- Published: 2019-05-01
- Author: Bob Jin

This report analyses the strategic shift of global telecommunications operators into the fintech sector to offset moderating core revenues. While global fintech investment rose to US$111.8bn in 2018, Australian and New Zealand telcos remain cautious due to strong incumbent finance players. The analysis explores how telcos use their natural strengths—large user bases and distribution networks—to launch mobile wallets, insurance, and banking services, creating synergistic ecosystems that improve ARPU and customer retention.

### Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: April 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-australian-tmt-wrap-april-2019
- Published: 2019-04-30
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the significant uptick in M&A activity within the Australian TMT sector during April 2019. Key highlights include the shareholder approval of KKR's $1.6bn takeover of MYOB and its subsequent replacement by Nearmap in the S&P/ASX200. The analysis covers major corporate movements, including Nine Entertainment's $115m sale of its regional media business and Seek's strategic $142m investment into global online education platforms FutureLearn and Coursera.

### Mobile Sports Streaming, Gaming and E-sports: A revenue opportunity for 5G operators?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/mobile-sports-gaming-esports-5g-revenue
- Published: 2019-04-09
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the revenue potential for 5G operators in Australia by examining consumer behavior across sports streaming, mobile gaming, and e-sports. Based on a survey of 1,026 respondents, the findings highlight that 62% of consumers are aware of 5G build plans and a significant segment is willing to pay a price premium for enhanced experiences. The analysis suggests that network slicing for low-latency gaming and high-definition sports viewing could provide a sustainable $5-$10 monthly add-on opportunity for telcos.

### Apple Card – allowing the fox into the henhouse…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/apple-card-australia-banking-disruption
- Published: 2019-04-01
- Author: Giorgio Kringas

This report analyses the strategic launch of Apple Card and its potential to disrupt the Australian banking sector. With Apple Pay on track to process 10 billion transactions in 2019, the introduction of a digital-first credit card threatens the lucrative payments business of major banks. The report evaluates Apple's competitive advantages in user experience and privacy, the specific revenue risks for Australian incumbents, and the potential for neobanks or telcos to partner with Apple to challenge the Big Four banking oligopoly.

### NBN update plus our views on sale options and timing
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-hy19-update-sale-options
- Published: 2019-04-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyzes NBN's HY19 financial results and the strategic implications of its current rollout progress. While revenue increased 46% year-on-year to $1.3bn, the growing number of Service Class 0 premises—now at 1.4 million—presents a significant risk to activation targets and an opportunity for 5G fixed wireless bypass. The brief also outlines five strategic sale scenarios for the Australian Government, forecasting that any divestment process will likely span several years and remain a key political issue through the next election cycle.

### TPG 1H19 – Business sector to be a key focus as NBN erodes Consumer
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-1h19-earnings-nbn-consumer-pivot
- Published: 2019-03-19
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses TPG's 1H19 financial results, highlighting a significant profit decline to A$46.9mn from A$198.6mn in 1HY18. The downturn is primarily attributed to a A$227.4mn write-down of mobile network assets following the decision to cease its small cell rollout. While consumer revenues fell by A$28mn, the corporate segment showed resilience with a 48% EBITDA margin, signaling a strategic shift toward high-margin business fibre and Data/Internet services to offset NBN-driven margin compression in the residential market.

### Vocus 1H19 earnings update: Losses in both Consumer and Business
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/vocus-1h19-earnings-consumer-business-losses
- Published: 2019-03-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses Vocus Group's 1H19 financial results, highlighting a period of significant structural transition. While group revenue increased slightly by 1% to $974.2 million, underlying EBITDA fell 7% to $176.4 million. The company is currently navigating a 'reset year' involving an organisational restructure into three divisions: Networks, Retail, and New Zealand. The analysis focuses on the sustainability of consumer NBN margins and the strategic pivot toward mobile and fixed wireless services to offset legacy declines.

### Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: March 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-australian-tmt-wrap-march-2019
- Published: 2019-03-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Australian Telecommunications, Media, and Technology (TMT) sectors for March 2019. It highlights a period of relatively low transaction volume compared to February, contrasted by significant capital raisings from major players like Megaport and Telstra. A central case study examines the Lyft IPO on the NASDAQ, analyzing the disconnect between fundamental valuation models, such as Aswath Damodaran’s $16 billion estimate, and the market's initial $24 billion pricing.

### Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: February 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-australian-tmt-wrap-february-2019
- Published: 2019-02-28
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the Australian TMT sector performance for February 2019, highlighting a significant increase in market activity compared to January. Key developments include the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the TPG-VHA merger, which may necessitate a $168m write-down of spectrum licenses and mobile assets. The report details financial results for major players including Telstra, REA Group, and Megaport, while tracking the best and worst stock performers across the telecommunications, media, and technology sectors.

### Australian Telco Breakfast Roundtable: Five key discussion topics for 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-telco-roundtable-2019-key-topics
- Published: 2019-02-19
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report synthesises findings from a telco industry roundtable discussing five pivotal themes for 2019. It examines how 5G leadership may drive market share gains, the potential for fixed wireless to substitute fixed broadband, and the fragmented state of the IoT market. Additionally, the report outlines the 3.5+ year NBN sale process and evaluates the strategic implications of the proposed TPG-VHA merger on competition and infrastructure investment in the Australian market.

### Telstra and Optus – nbn pain, falling ARPUs and the fight for 5G supremacy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-optus-5g-nbn-earnings-update
- Published: 2019-02-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the February 2019 earnings updates from Telstra and Optus, highlighting a market characterized by subdued revenue and earnings growth. While subscriber numbers continue to grow, falling ARPUs and a slowdown in NBN migration payments are putting significant pressure on margins. The analysis forecasts a 2.3% CAGR for the Australian telco market over the next five years, with 5G and fixed wireless emerging as the primary battlegrounds for future growth and margin recovery.

### New Zealand Mobile Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-mobile-market-outlook-2022
- Published: 2019-02-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report provides a comprehensive outlook on the New Zealand mobile market, forecasting total revenue to reach NZ$3.2bn by 2022 at a 3.1% CAGR. It analyzes the shift from prepaid to postpaid segments, the impact of 2degrees' aggressive market share pursuit, and the rising demand for mobile data, which has surged 25x over six years. The analysis also covers the role of MVNOs, the emergence of 5G, and the strategic importance of media content bundling for MNOs.

### Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: February 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-tmt-wrap-february-2019
- Published: 2019-02-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the Australian Telecom, Media, and Technology sectors for February 2019, noting a significant increase in market activity compared to January. Key developments include the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the TPG-VHA merger, which may necessitate a $168m write-down of spectrum licenses and mobile assets. The report details half-year financial results for major players including Telstra, REA Group, and Altium, while highlighting a surge in fiber demand and data center expansions by Megaport and NextDC.

### Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: January 2019
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/monthly-australian-tmt-wrap-january-2019
- Published: 2019-02-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Australian Telecom, Media, and Technology sectors for January 2019. It highlights a relatively quiet M&A environment dominated by the ELMO Software/BoxSuite agreement and significant developments in the 5G landscape. Key focus areas include the results of the 3.6GHz spectrum auctions, TPG Telecom's decision to cease its mobile network rollout due to regulatory equipment bans, and various corporate updates across the media and technology verticals including earnings guidance and leadership changes.

### Six ways 5G will change the future of media and entertainment
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/five-g-future-media-entertainment
- Published: 2019-01-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses how 5G technology is set to disrupt the media and entertainment value chain. It identifies six key transformation areas, including sports viewing, immersive AR/VR, and infrastructure substitution. With 5G offering speeds up to 100x faster than 4G and theoretical peaks of 10Gbps, the report forecasts significant shifts in user-generated content and cloud gaming. It specifically highlights the transition from traditional satellite-based broadcasting to remote 5G-enabled production models.

### TPG's mobile announcement will shift focus to the ongoing competitiveness of MVNOs
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-mobile-halt-mvno-competitiveness
- Published: 2019-01-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the strategic implications of TPG's decision to cease its mobile network rollout following the Australian government's ban on Huawei 5G equipment. With TPG exiting as a potential fourth mobile operator, the focus shifts to the Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) sector, which currently holds a 22% market share in metro areas. The analysis explores how this shift impacts the proposed TPG-VHA merger and the necessity for regulated 5G wholesale access to maintain market competitiveness.

### 5G Update December 2018 – Telstra leading the race to 5G
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-5g-leadership-spectrum-auction-results
- Published: 2018-12-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the state of the Australian 5G market as of late 2018, highlighting Telstra's dominant position following the ACMA 3.6 GHz spectrum auctions. Telstra invested $386 million to secure 143 lots, positioning itself ahead of Optus and TPG-Vodafone. The analysis covers consumer willingness to upgrade, with 47% of users open to 5G within 24 months, and explores enterprise use cases across agriculture, mining, and logistics that will drive long-term data growth.

### 5G Update December 2018 – Telstra leading the race to 5G
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-5g-leadership-spectrum-auction-update
- Published: 2018-12-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the Australian 5G landscape following the ACMA 3.6 GHz spectrum auctions. Telstra has emerged as the clear leader, securing 143 lots for $386 million and demonstrating world-first 5G voice calls. While Optus and Vodafone face infrastructure hurdles due to the Huawei ban, Telstra is on track for a 2019 service launch. The analysis forecasts that 5G will achieve faster adoption rates than previous generations, driven by fixed wireless and enhanced mobile broadband use cases.

### Radcomms 2018 & the upcoming 3.6GHz spectrum auctions
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/radcomms-2018-3-6ghz-spectrum-auctions
- Published: 2018-11-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses the key outcomes of the ACMA Radcomms 2018 conference and the strategic implications of the upcoming 3.6GHz spectrum auctions. It examines the shift toward 5G, the rise of wireless substitution currently at 36% for voice, and the booming Australian space industry valued at $3.9 billion. The analysis focuses on how regulatory frameworks must adapt to support small cell deployment and spectrum defragmentation to ensure Australia remains competitive against leading global regions in innovation.

### UBS Australasia Conference – 5G’s accelerating progress
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/ubs-australasia-conference-5g-progress
- Published: 2018-11-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the accelerated 5G deployment timelines in Australia following the 2018 UBS Australasia Conference. While initial market expectations targeted a 2020 release, technology advances and regulatory support have pulled the first commercial services forward to 2019. The analysis focuses on the strategic importance of low latency and network slicing for verticals like healthcare and manufacturing, while evaluating the ongoing relevance of the NBN and the competitive impact of the TPG-Vodafone merger on the 5G landscape.

### Future Trends In Telecom and Video
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/future-trends-telecom-video-5g-adoption
- Published: 2018-10-10
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the evolving Australian mobile market based on a survey of 1,008 respondents in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. It highlights a significant consumer appetite for 5G technology, with 41.8% awareness of planned networks and 47% of users planning to migrate within two years of launch. The findings also detail the dominance of YouTube in mobile video consumption and a growing trend of fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution, with 30% of households at risk of switching to wireless solutions.

### The role of IoT in the Healthcare Industry
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/iot-healthcare-australia-market-forecast
- Published: 2018-10-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the transformative potential of the Internet of Things (IoT) within the Australian healthcare sector, forecasting a market value of up to A$9.2bn by 2025. It examines enabling technologies such as NB-IoT, cloud systems, and AI, while identifying critical barriers including legacy system transitions, privacy concerns, and regulatory delays. The analysis highlights how IoT-driven data collection and remote monitoring will shift medical roles toward data science and improve patient outcomes through real-time insights.

### New Zealand consumer interest growing for 5G mobile
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-consumer-interest-5g-mobile
- Published: 2018-10-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the New Zealand consumer mobile market, revealing that 30% of respondents are aware of operator 5G plans and 31% intend to migrate within two years. While interest is growing, adoption intent lags behind Australia due to regulatory uncertainty regarding spectrum availability. Key use cases identified include mobile video streaming, which 43% of respondents engage in regularly, and fixed wireless broadband, with 18% of current fixed users considering a switch to 5G-based alternatives.

### nbn Corporate Plan 2019 – challenging times ahead
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-corporate-plan-2019-analysis
- Published: 2018-09-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyzes the nbn 2019 Corporate Plan, highlighting significant performance misses in FY18 due to HFC rollout delays and wholesale pricing shifts. While total revenue reached $2.0bn, activations fell 400,000 short of previous forecasts. The analysis explores the strategic shift toward 50 Mbps plans, the $1.3bn increase in fixed wireless CAPEX, and the growing threat of 5G fixed wireless substitution which now matches the original 15% business case assumption.

### Telcos and the battle for HDMI 1 – bringing everything under one roof
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telcos-battle-hdmi-1-aggregation
- Published: 2018-09-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the strategic importance of the HDMI 1 slot in the Australian digital TV era, where fragmented video markets are driving a return to aggregated platforms. Telcos are positioned as the primary aggregators, utilizing a single user interface and billing relationship to manage FTA, Pay TV, and SVOD services. The analysis highlights how Telstra TV and Fetch have captured over 2 million households, emphasizing that integrated TV tuners and universal search are critical enablers for maintaining market dominance against global tech giants.

### Unlimited mobile data – not quite all you can eat…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/unlimited-mobile-data-australia-tpg-impact
- Published: 2018-07-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the re-emergence of unlimited mobile data plans in Australia, driven by TPG’s entry into the mobile market with a disruptive A$9.99 monthly offering. Mobile data usage in Australia is forecast to increase six-fold between 2017 and 2021, reaching 348 petabytes per month. While incumbents like Telstra, Optus, and Vodafone have introduced unlimited tiers, these plans include significant caveats such as speed throttling and data caps, reflecting the technical challenges of maintaining network performance under high consumption loads.

### LEO Satellites: The race to connect the unconnected
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/leo-satellites-race-connect-unconnected
- Published: 2018-06-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the emergence of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite technology as a disruptive force in the global telecommunications market. It examines how LEO constellations, operating at altitudes of 500-1500 km, address the limitations of traditional GEO satellites by providing low-latency connectivity (1-7 ms) and cost-effective solutions for the 4 billion people currently without internet access. The analysis covers key global players like SpaceX and OneWeb, alongside Australian developments involving Myriota and Optus.

### Blockchain in Telecom – moving from concept to reality…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/blockchain-telecom-concept-to-reality
- Published: 2018-05-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the transition of Blockchain from a conceptual framework to a practical utility within the telecommunications sector. With the business value add of Blockchain projected to reach US$176bn by 2025 and US$3.1tn by 2030, global operators including Orange, Verizon, and AT&T are investing in distributed ledger technology to address security vulnerabilities in IoT and 5G environments. The analysis explores key use cases such as micropayments, roaming authentication, and automated smart contracts for network resource management.

### NBN update: more fibre + better pricing will lead to higher speeds
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-update-fibre-pricing-higher-speeds
- Published: 2018-05-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the NBN's progress as of May 2018, highlighting that over 7.5 million premises are now ready for service, representing more than two-thirds of the targeted rollout. While revenue more than doubled year-on-year to $891 million in 1HY18, the network faces significant headwinds from rising customer complaints, HFC rollout delays, and the emerging threat of 5G and fixed wireless substitutes. The analysis explores how new wholesale pricing structures are driving a shift toward higher speed tiers, with 33% of users now on 50Mbps plans or higher.

### IoT & Cryptocurrency Mining: Cyber Security Update
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/iot-cryptocurrency-mining-cyber-security-update
- Published: 2018-04-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the intersection of the Internet of Things (IoT) and cryptocurrency mining malware, specifically the rise of 'crypto-jacking'. It highlights that 2017 saw a 50% growth in cryptocurrency mining cyber-attacks, with up to 59% of home network attacks being cryptocurrency related. The analysis explores how criminals leverage the distributed computing power of hijacked IoT devices to avoid electricity costs and maintain anonymity, while posing risks to business-critical assets and service continuity.

### MarTech and AdTech – it’s going to be a Mad(Tech) world…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/martech-adtech-convergence-madtech-world
- Published: 2018-03-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the convergence of MarTech and AdTech into 'MadTech', driven by the need for a seamless and personalised customer experience. With over A$15bn of advertising expenditure at stake in Australia, the integration of disparate data sets is becoming a necessity for accountability and transparency. The brief explores how AI and Machine Learning are accelerating this process, the role of Telcos in leveraging first-party data, and the competitive risks posed by the 'walled gardens' of global technology giants like Facebook, Google, and Amazon.

### Telco Roundtable Breakfast – key findings: The impacts of fixed-mobile substitution
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/fixed-mobile-substitution-tpg-5g-impact
- Published: 2018-03-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyzes the growing risk of fixed-mobile substitution in the Australian broadband market, driven by the upcoming availability of 5G and TPG’s entry as a mobile network operator. Survey data indicates that 30% of fixed broadband households are at risk of switching to mobile, particularly those with monthly data usage under 200GB. The analysis forecasts market share shifts and ARPU compression as operators adjust to aggressive pricing and changing consumer viewing habits on mobile devices.

### 5G Update February 2018
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/5g-update-february-2018-rollout-plans
- Published: 2018-02-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses the accelerating 5G landscape in Australia and New Zealand, highlighting that Telstra and Optus have both outlined plans to deploy fixed wireless 5G networks by late 2018 or early 2019. It examines the impact of the 3GPP's December 2017 standards release, the role of the government-led 5G Working Group, and the strategic importance of nbn's existing 3.4 GHz and 3.5 GHz spectrum holdings. The brief also covers international developments, including US carrier plans and global 5G trials.

### Unlicensed Spectrum – a wireless pathway for OTT disruption?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/unlicensed-spectrum-ott-disruption-australia
- Published: 2018-02-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the emergence of unlicensed spectrum as a disruptive force in the Australian telecommunications market. With mobile internet traffic growing 9x over the past five years, reaching 175,076 Terabytes in 2017, new technologies like LTE-A in Unlicensed and MulteFire are enabling OTT providers to bypass traditional infrastructure. The report examines how players like Facebook, Google, and Amazon are lobbying for spectrum liberalization to deploy their own wireless broadband solutions, potentially challenging established MNOs and the NBN.

### Universal Service Obligation – past its sell-by date
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/universal-service-obligation-past-sell-by-date
- Published: 2018-01-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes the transition from the legacy Universal Service Obligation (USO) to the new Universal Service Guarantee (USG) in Australia. With the NBN rollout nearing completion and mobile coverage reaching over 99% of the population, the current A$297mn annual subsidy for fixed-line voice and payphones is deemed anachronistic. The analysis explores the Productivity Commission's findings, the financial impact on Telstra's long-term contracts, and the technical requirements for ensuring 100% broadband and voice availability under the new framework.

### The Wireless Threat to Fixed Broadband Services
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/wireless-threat-fixed-broadband-substitution
- Published: 2018-01-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the increasing threat of mobile substitution to fixed broadband services in Australia. Based on recent consumer survey data, it identifies that 30% of fixed broadband households are considering a switch to wireless alternatives, driven by improved mobile technology and dissatisfaction with NBN service quality. The analysis explores the drivers and inhibitors of this shift, highlighting the impact of upcoming 5G networks and new market entrants like TPG on the competitive landscape.

### Top Australian Telco trends to watch in 2018
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/top-australian-telco-trends-2018
- Published: 2018-01-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report identifies ten critical trends shaping the A$40bn Australian telecommunications sector in 2018. It highlights the transition from 4G to 5G, the rise of IoT use cases, and the emergence of edge computing as key drivers for future revenue. The analysis also covers the ongoing NBN rollout challenges, TPG's disruptive mobile market entry, and the increasing importance of cybersecurity and media content differentiation for incumbents facing margin pressures.

### New Zealand Telco Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-telco-market-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-12-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report provides a comprehensive outlook on the New Zealand telecommunications market, forecasting a shift toward mobile dominance and high-speed fiber adoption. While the overall retail market is expected to remain flat with a 1.1% CAGR through 2021, mobile revenues are projected to reach NZ$3.5 billion, driven by 4G/5G migration and post-paid plan growth. The analysis details the impact of the Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) rollout, regulatory reforms, and the competitive dynamics between incumbents and new energy-sector entrants.

### Edge Computing – decentralising the cloud but not replacing it
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/edge-computing-decentralising-cloud-iot
- Published: 2017-12-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the rise of edge computing as a necessary extension of the technology cycle to support the massive scale of IoT. With more than 250mn connected devices expected in Australia by 2021, traditional centralised cloud platforms face challenges in latency, bandwidth, and real-time analysis. Edge computing provides the solution by placing processing capabilities near the data source, enabling a hybrid model where the cloud and edge work together to manage unprecedented data volumes and sophisticated applications.

### IoT Growth and Cyber Security
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/iot-growth-cyber-security-risks-2
- Published: 2017-11-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the rapid expansion of the Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem and the corresponding rise in cyber security risks. Globally, IoT devices are forecast to grow from 5.6 billion in 2016 to 18.1 billion by 2022, creating a massive increase in potential attack vectors. Despite this growth, only 25% of companies have a formal strategy for securing IoT, compared to 71% for traditional cyber security. The brief explores vulnerabilities such as low-cost hardware, standard passwords, and limited update capabilities.

### Telecommunications Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telecommunications-market-outlook-2017-2021
- Published: 2017-11-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report provides a comprehensive outlook for the Australian telecommunications market through 2021, forecasting a total retail revenue CAGR of 2.4%. It details the structural decline of fixed voice services, which are expected to drop to a 5% market share, while mobile and corporate data segments expand. The analysis covers the impact of the NBN rollout on wholesale revenues, the entry of TPG as a fourth mobile operator, and the transformative potential of 5G technology on network design and performance metrics.

### Disruptive mobile business models – Is TPG going to be ‘Free’?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tpg-disruptive-mobile-business-models-australia
- Published: 2017-11-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the potential for TPG to disrupt the A$18bn Australian mobile market following its A$1.26bn spectrum acquisition. By examining international precedents like Free Mobile in France and 2degrees in New Zealand, the study identifies five key success factors for new entrants. TPG's strategy involves deploying a high-density small cell network to cover 80% of the population, aiming to pressure incumbent margins through aggressive pricing and higher data limits as mobile services become increasingly commoditised.

### New Zealand Mobile Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-mobile-market-outlook-2021
- Published: 2017-10-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report forecasts the New Zealand mobile market to remain the largest telecommunications segment, reaching NZ$3.6 billion in revenue by 2021. Growth is underpinned by a structural shift from prepaid to postpaid plans, rising data consumption following the entry of SVOD services like Netflix, and the expansion of M2M/IoT connectivity. While Vodafone NZ and Spark currently dominate, increasing competitive intensity from 2degrees is expected to shift market shares, particularly in the high-ARPU business and postpaid sectors.

### Australian MVNOs are here to stay but...
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-mvno-market-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-10-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the role of MVNOs in the Australian mobile market, examining key differentiators, MNO relationships, and the impact of TPG’s entry as the fourth MNO. While MVNOs have doubled their market share to 10% since 2010, driven by BYO and non-contract plans, the landscape is shifting. The analysis forecasts a reduction in MVNO share to 8% by 2021 and explores how 5G network slicing and service bundling will define future competitiveness.

### Australia’s 5G roadmap – on your mark, get set, go…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-5g-roadmap-spectrum-strategy
- Published: 2017-10-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the Australian Government's strategic policy framework for the 5G rollout, highlighting key measures such as spectrum management and regulatory modernisation. With the first 5G networks expected to go live in approximately two years, the strategy prioritises the refarming of the 3.6GHz band and the establishment of a 5G working group. The analysis examines how these initiatives, alongside ACMA and AMTA reports, will transform the telecommunications landscape and drive innovation across industry sectors through improved connectivity and low latency.

### Get your hands off it: How a driverless future impacts Media
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/driverless-future-impacts-media-strategy
- Published: 2017-09-01
- Author: Robin Jordan

This report analyses the impact of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on the media landscape, forecasting that AVs will be a commercial reality within five years. With the average Sydney car commute taking 26 minutes each way, the transition to driverless technology could free up millions of hours of commuter time daily. While visual media and ad-funded models stand to gain significantly, the report warns of existential threats to the radio and out-of-home industries as drivers' visual focus shifts from the road to in-car screens.

### NBN Corporate Plan 2018 – stepping on the gas…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-corporate-plan-2018-analysis
- Published: 2017-09-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes the NBN Corporate Plan 2018, highlighting that the network has reached the 50% rollout milestone with 5.7 million premises ready for service. While FY17 revenues doubled to A$1 billion, the NBN faces significant challenges in increasing ARPU from A$42 to A$52 by FY21. Key obstacles include RSP resistance to CVC charges, the rising number of complex 'Service Class Zero' premises, and a consumer preference for base-tier speed plans (12/1 and 25/5 Mbps).

### Cybercrime - The Upside
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/cybercrime-the-upside-market-growth
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the four key growth areas in the Australian cybersecurity market: education and training, managed security services, insurance, and cyber-start-ups. While cybercrime costs Australia over $1 billion annually, the resulting market disruption is driving a significant increase in cybersecurity spending. The report forecasts the domestic market will grow from A$2.2 billion to A$6 billion by 2026, highlighting the critical role of telecommunications operators and innovative start-ups in addressing the widening skills gap and evolving threat landscape.

### The 5G Evolution, Part 2 – Standards, Deployment and Challenges
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/5g-evolution-standards-deployment-challenges
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses the global and domestic trajectory of 5G technology, forecasting that while initial networks will emerge in 2020, mass commercial deployment is expected from 2022 onwards. It evaluates the competitive landscape in Australia, where Telstra is positioned as the frontrunner, and examines the critical role of spectrum allocation in the 3.5 GHz and mmWave bands. The analysis highlights the shift toward small cell densification and the ongoing importance of 4G as a complementary service through the mid-2020s.

### ACMA review of the NBN and RSPs – it takes three to tango!
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/acma-nbn-rsp-review-tango
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report examines the regulatory response to the significant increase in consumer complaints following the NBN rollout reaching 5.7 million premises. With complaints growing 3x between 2014 and 2016, the ACMA and ACCC have initiated monitoring programs to determine if performance issues are caused by NBN infrastructure or Retail Service Providers (RSPs) failing to purchase adequate Connectivity Virtual Circuit (CVC) capacity. The analysis highlights the tension between maintaining RSP margins and delivering promised broadband speeds.

### The 5G Evolution, Part I – Enabling Technologies; a Revolutionary Impact
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/5g-evolution-enabling-technologies-impact
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses the transition to 5G as a fundamental shift in communication networks, moving beyond simple data rate improvements to a universal connectivity platform. It forecasts that total mobile data in Australia will reach approximately 100 petabytes by 2020, doubling 2015 levels. The analysis details key enabling technologies including massive MIMO, mmWave spectrum, and small cell densification, while evaluating the strategic impact on telcos, handset manufacturers, and adjacent industries like autonomous vehicles and industrial automation.

### UFB Market to 2020 and beyond – Why the Kiwis are winning…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-ufb-market-structure-2020-beyond
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the evolution and success of New Zealand’s Ultra-fast Broadband (UFB) initiative, which is on track to reach 80% of the population by the end of 2019. It examines the structural separation of Telecom New Zealand into Spark and Chorus, the regulatory shift toward utility-style pricing, and the competitive dynamics between 87 active Retail Service Providers. The brief also provides a comparative analysis against Australia's NBN, highlighting differences in technology, funding models, and take-up rates.

### Mobile Telco Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/mobile-telco-market-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-07-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the Australian mobile market, forecasting total revenue to reach A$22.2bn by 2021 at a 3.6% CAGR. While the market is traditionally mature, it faces significant disruption from the planned entry of TPG as a fourth mobile operator and the transition toward 5G and IoT services. The analysis covers revenue market shares, subscriber growth, and the strategic shift from connectivity-based to service-driven revenue models as incumbents look to media content for differentiation.

### Risks to NBN becoming more visible
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-risks-visible-fy16-analysis
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Chris Blyth

This report provides a detailed analysis of NBN Co's FY16 results and future outlook through FY22. While NBN achieved a dramatic turnaround in FY16 with revenue growing 156.7% to A$421m, significant risks to ARPU and connection targets are emerging. The analysis explores the impact of CVC pricing on Retail Service Provider (RSP) economics, the threat of fixed mobile substitution from major players like Telstra and TPG, and the potential for a capital write-down to address profitability and government ROI concerns.

### The Future of Wi-Fi – Applications and Revenue Opportunities
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/future-wifi-applications-revenue-opportunities
- Published: 2017-03-01
- Author: Yifei Huang

This report analyses the evolving Wi-Fi ecosystem, forecasting a global market value of $33.6 billion by 2020. It examines how the technology is transitioning from a simple consumer convenience to a strategic asset for carriers and operators. Key growth drivers include the Internet of Things (IoT), which is expected to connect 30 billion devices by 2020, and the rise of data analytics, a market projected to reach $4.12 billion for telcos. The analysis also compares Wi-Fi with competing 5G and small cell technologies.

### New Zealand Telecommunications Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nz-telecom-market-outlook-2017
- Published: 2017-03-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report provides a comprehensive outlook on the New Zealand telecommunications market, focusing on the structural shift from fixed voice to mobile and the expansion of the Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) network. It forecasts retail market revenues across fixed voice, broadband, and mobile segments through 2021, highlighting a 7.3% CAGR for mobile services. The analysis covers infrastructure rollouts by Chorus, market share shifts among key players like Spark and Vodafone, and the impact of video streaming on data consumption.

### ComCom says no to ‘Skodafone’ – What now?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/comcom-rejects-vodafone-sky-merger
- Published: 2017-02-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyzes the New Zealand Commerce Commission's decision to reject the proposed NZ$3.44 billion merger between Vodafone NZ and Sky TV. The regulator's primary concern centered on the merged entity's ability to leverage exclusive premium sports rights to create an insurmountable advantage in triple-play bundling. The decision maintains high competitive tension across fixed and mobile markets, while leaving Sky TV to navigate a standalone future amidst declining revenues and subscriber numbers.

### The pace of consolidation continues — Superloop acquires BigAir
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/superloop-acquires-bigair-nbn-alternative
- Published: 2016-10-01
- Author: Bob Lin

This report provides an overview of the recently announced acquisition of BigAir by Superloop to create a wholesale and retail alternative to the NBN across corporate, campus, metro and regional markets in Australia with a merged entity enterprise value of around $500 million. The transaction marks the continuance of a long trend of consolidation in the Australian telecommunications market, driven by strategic benefits, business expansion opportunities, and significant revenue/cost synergies.

### Drones – soaring to great heights?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/anz-commercial-drone-market-forecast
- Published: 2016-10-01
- Author: Dhanu Narenthiran

This report analyses the evolving drone landscape in Australia and New Zealand, forecasting that the commercial market will exceed A$400M at full penetration. While DJI maintains a 60% share of the consumer market, the commercial sector remains fragmented with no clear incumbents. Growth is driven by regulatory shifts from CASA and CAA, alongside emerging use cases in infrastructure, mining, and agriculture. The analysis highlights that the majority of future value will derive from drone-related services rather than hardware sales.

### Telecommunications Market Outlook
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telecommunications-market-outlook-2016-2020
- Published: 2016-09-01
- Author: Bob Lin

This report forecasts the Australian telecommunications market through 2020, highlighting a significant structural shift from fixed line services to mobile and data. While the total retail market is expected to grow at a 2.7% CAGR, individual segments show divergent paths: mobile revenue is projected to reach $22.5bn by 2020, while fixed voice revenues are expected to contract at a 15.8% CAGR. The analysis covers retail and wholesale dynamics, including the impact of the NBN rollout and ACCC regulatory decisions on termination rates.

### Big Data in Australia | Why every CEO needs to have a Big Data plan
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/big-data-australia-ceo-strategy
- Published: 2016-07-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the transition from traditional business intelligence to Big Data analytics within the Australian market. It highlights that 80% of global data is now unstructured, with 90% created since 2003, reaching a total of 4.4 zettabytes by 2013. The analysis explores the 'four Vs'—volume, variety, velocity, and value—and provides a strategic framework for CEOs to implement data-driven decision-making while navigating a significant shortage of qualified data scientists in the local region.

### Spectrum Implications and Research Plan
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/spectrum-implications-5g-research-plan
- Published: 2016-06-01
- Author: JJ

This report analyses the evolving global spectrum landscape, focusing on the implications for 5G development and Free-to-Air (FTA) spectrum in Australia. It examines regulatory precedents from the FCC in the USA, 5G trials in Japan achieving 2GBPS throughput, and China's commercial trial plans for 2018. The brief outlines the strategic importance of the ITU WARC in harmonising international cooperation across the EU, China, and Japan to meet the specific spectrum demands of 5G technology.

### Mobile gaming — Moving beyond child’s play
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-mobile-gaming-market-forecast-2020
- Published: 2016-03-21
- Author: Dhanu Narenthiran

This report analyses the Australian mobile gaming market, forecasting growth from $910m in 2015 to $1.5bn by 2020. It explores market segmentation by platform, complexity, and genre, highlighting the shift from traditional 'hard-core' male gamers to a broader demographic where 47% of players are female and the average age is 33. The brief evaluates the dominance of freemium monetisation models and identifies emerging opportunities for TMT players in digital media, advertising, and cross-platform integration.

### All together now – Why aggregation is the future of TV
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/aggregation-future-of-australian-tv
- Published: 2016-01-29
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the shift from 'app-ification' back to aggregated TV platforms in Australia. As the market fragments across FTA, Pay-TV, and SVOD services, aggregators like Telstra TV, Fetch TV, and Apple TV are positioned to own the audience by providing a single user interface. The analysis highlights the strategic importance of 'pucks'—low-cost streaming devices—and Universal Search as key differentiators for telcos seeking to maintain margins during the NBN migration.

### TV and Video Viewing in 2025
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/tv-video-viewing-2025-forecast
- Published: 2016-01-21
- Author: Dan

This report outlines the strategic framework for forecasting Australian TV and video viewing habits through 2025. It establishes a methodology to recreate the Enders report for the local market, focusing on viewing time across age demographics and the split between traditional broadcast and digital platforms. The brief identifies key data sources including OzTAM, Fetch, and MCN to map the total addressable leisure time and industry-wide measurement initiatives like BARB Dovetail and Nielsen US.

### Australian MVNOs – ‘Peak MVNO’ is here…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-mvnos-peak-mvno-forecast
- Published: 2016-01-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the Australian Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) landscape, arguing that the market has reached a saturation point termed 'Peak MVNO'. While MVNOs successfully captured market share during Vodafone's period of network instability, reaching 8.3% in 2015, structural changes are now reversing this trend. The analysis forecasts a decline in market share to 6.6% by 2020, driven by rising wholesale costs, narrowing price differentials with Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), and a resurgent Vodafone.

### Our 5G future – More spectrum, smaller cells, greater impact
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australia-5g-spectrum-small-cells
- Published: 2016-01-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report analyses the impending shift in the Australian spectrum environment, forecasting a four-fold increase in data consumption by 2020. It identifies small-cell infrastructure and spectrum availability as the two primary hurdles for 5G deployment. The analysis highlights that while the US is moving toward millimetre-wave spectrum, Australia is likely to follow European standards, with initial 5G implementations expected in the fixed wireless space to address capacity and latency needs.

### NBN RSP Outlook –Australia’s next oligopoly
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-rsp-outlook-australia-next-oligopoly
- Published: 2015-12-15
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the structural shift in the Australian telecommunications market as the NBN rollout progresses. It forecasts a transition toward an oligopolistic market where 3-4 players dominate over 95% of market share. The analysis highlights how the uniform wholesale access price removes traditional on-net margin advantages, forcing RSPs to differentiate through content bundling, customer service, and scale. Key impacts include significant margin erosion for incumbents like Telstra and TPG, while off-net players like M2 are positioned for margin improvement.

### FLASH – Telstra Summit 2015: No going back now
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-digital-summit-2015-disruption-analysis
- Published: 2015-10-30
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyzes key takeaways from the 2015 Telstra Digital Summit, focusing on the intersection of people, business, and digitalization. It highlights the Australian Government's shift toward a digital mindset, the emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) as the next computing frontier, and the blurring lines between traditional telecommunications and technology companies. With 87% of businesses anticipating disruption within five years, the report emphasizes the urgent need for investment in digital talent and infrastructure to maintain relevance in a mobile-first economy.

### NBN – first million homes passed but a long way to go…
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/nbn-first-million-homes-passed-forecast
- Published: 2015-10-23
- Author: Dan Blair

This report provides a deep dive into NBN forecasts, assessing key trends as the rollout passes the one million premises milestone. While the rollout is expected to be delayed by 2-3 years, NBN revenues are forecast to grow at a 65% CAGR to reach A$2.0b by 2020. Growth will be primarily driven by a take-up rate increasing to 37% of premises, while ARPU remains flat due to necessary declines in CVC charges to maintain RSP margins.

### Turnbull takes the reins
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/turnbull-takes-reins-media-nbn-innovation
- Published: 2015-10-12
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the implications for the TMT sectors following Malcolm Turnbull’s swearing-in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister. It examines the likelihood of media reform, the strategic direction of the NBN, and the government's pivot toward innovation and digital transformation. While media reform is considered inevitable, the report suggests it may be delayed by political priorities, including the need for consensus with the Nationals and the upcoming federal election timeline.

### Telco Market Outlook – NBN putting the squeeze on Fixed Voice
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telco-market-outlook-nbn-fixed-voice-squeeze
- Published: 2015-09-24
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the material changes in how Australian telco products are delivered and consumed, forecasting a broadly flat total market through 2020 with a 1.6% CAGR. While overall household spending remains stable, a significant shift in product share is expected as the NBN rollout reaches 72% of its target by 2020. Fixed Voice is projected to decline sharply at a -10% CAGR, offset by growth in Mobile (2.6% CAGR) and Fixed Broadband (3.8% CAGR) as challengers use VOIP bundling to take share from Telstra.

### SVOD and NZ telcos – Bro’s or Foes?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/svod-nz-telcos-partners-foes
- Published: 2015-07-29
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the strategic intersection of Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) and the New Zealand telecommunications market. With video expected to constitute over 85% of network traffic by 2019, telcos face a critical choice between acting as video enablers through partnerships or becoming direct content competitors. The analysis evaluates the current landscape for major players including Spark, Vodafone, 2degrees, and CallPlus, highlighting how content rights—particularly sports—and global scale dictate the viability of standalone video offerings.

### FLASH – Netflix 2Q Content and that’s the bottom line
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/netflix-2q-content-investment-analysis
- Published: 2015-07-20
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses Netflix's 2Q results, which saw subscriber additions of 3.3m exceed consensus estimates of 2.5m. The growth is primarily attributed to aggressive investment in original content, with the company planning to spend US$5b on content in 2016. The analysis highlights the significant contribution of the Australia and New Zealand markets to international growth and explores Netflix's strategic pivot into movie production and potential new genres like reality and sports to maintain its competitive moat.

### Telstra Air – here, there and everywhere
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/telstra-air-wifi-strategy-analysis
- Published: 2015-07-16
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the launch of Telstra Air and its implications for the Australian telecommunications landscape. Telstra is investing $100m over five years to deploy approximately 8,000 public WiFi hotspots, augmented by 2 million Fon Community Hotspots. The strategy aims to alleviate mobile network capacity constraints, where traffic is forecast to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2019. By integrating WiFi into its core network strategy, Telstra seeks to drive customer retention and create new revenue streams through location-based services and IoT opportunities.

### DisruptionIn – Coming soon to an industry near you
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/australian-economy-disruption-framework-analysis
- Published: 2015-07-09
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the accelerating impact of digital disruption on the Australian economy, forecasting a rise from 15% to nearly 60% impact over the next 5-10 years. While TMT, Retail, and Travel are currently in the midst of disruption, the proprietary Disruption Framework identifies Financial Services, Professional Services, Manufacturing, and Education as the next sectors ripe for transformation. The analysis details five primary drivers of disruption, including core technology drivers, empowered customers, and collapsed industry structures.

### SVOD and telco – Frenemies or Foes?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/svod-telco-frenemies-foes-australia
- Published: 2015-06-30
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the strategic options for Australian telecommunications operators as video becomes the primary driver of network traffic, expected to constitute 85% of all traffic by 2019. It evaluates the 'partner' versus 'standalone' models, concluding that the Australian market's unique structure—including anti-siphoning laws and Telstra's 50% ownership of Foxtel—favours a partnership approach. The brief examines how telcos can monetise this shift through retail distribution, billing capabilities, and tiered network pricing while navigating net neutrality concerns.

### Moneyball — Sports rights negotiations
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/moneyball-sports-rights-negotiations-2015
- Published: 2015-06-02
- Author: Dan Blair

This report assesses the global and local trends for sports rights as the AFL and NRL enter critical renegotiation cycles. Australian sports rights have seen inflation of approximately 70% over the most recent cycle, equating to a 10% CAGR. While costs are rising, sports remain the single biggest expense for networks, typically representing 20% of the cost base. The analysis evaluates the financial capacity of Nine, Seven, Ten, and Foxtel to secure future rights in an increasingly fragmented media ecosystem.

### Disruption In – Disruption is good for health
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/healthcare-disruption-mhealth-big-data
- Published: 2015-05-01
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the Australian healthcare industry, which contributes over A$130b to the economy annually. Using a proprietary Disruption Framework, it identifies A$23b of revenue as susceptible to technological disruption, specifically within the healthcare IT, medical equipment, and general practice segments. The analysis highlights big data in eHealth, mobile-enabled point-of-care testing, and the evolution of TeleHealth into mHealth as the primary drivers of change, with Telstra emerging as a significant disruptive force in the market.

### Review of the Australian Communications and Media Authority—Terms of Reference
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/telecom/acma-root-and-branch-review-terms-of-reference
- Published: 2015-01-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report outlines the terms of reference for a comprehensive review of the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA). Established in 2005, the regulator faces a rapidly evolving environment driven by the National Broadband Network and digital platforms like Google and YouTube. The review, conducted by the Department of Communications, aims to assess if the ACMA's structure and $1 billion deregulation targets are fit-for-purpose for the current and future communications regulatory landscape.

## Digital Infrastructure

### Red Stack Rising: Why Chinese Technology Is Winning Australia's Energy Transition
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/red-stack-rising-china-ev-battery-solar-ai-australia-2030
- Published: 2026-07-29
- Author: Venture Insights

Australia faces a consequential technology choice. Over the five years to 2030, the infrastructure decisions made by households, enterprises, and policymakers in electric vehicles, home and grid-scale batteries, solar generation, and AI compute will lock in supplier relationships and strategic dependencies that will define energy costs, industrial competitiveness, and national security posture for a generation. The evidence assembled in this report demonstrates that China has already achieved structural dominance across every layer of this technology stack: manufacturing scale, supply-chain control, price competitiveness, and market penetration in Australia. Cost-of-living pressure is accelerating adoption. The security risks are documented but not yet matched by proportionate policy response. These risks are not just emerging, they are a present reality.

### Beyond the Green Data Centre: Australia's AI Sovereignty Gap Is In Compute, Not Kilowatts
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/beyond-green-grid-australia-ai-sovereignty
- Published: 2026-07-15
- Author: David Kennedy

The Albanese government's July 2026 AI strategy speech at the University of Sydney marks the most significant declaration of AI policy intent in Australian history. Its centrepiece, a legal mandate requiring large-scale data centres to become net-generators of renewable energy, returning at least as much power to the grid as they consume, sets a genuine world precedent. Venture Insights endorses this measure. Our prior analysis of ATO Corporate Tax Transparency data established that six major tech platforms paid effective tax rates of 1.0% to 6.1% on total Australian income in FY2022/23. The new AI Standards framework contains no compute access provisions, no reform of venture capital incentives, and no mechanism ensuring domestic AI companies can compete on the infrastructure that matters most: high-performance GPU and TPU capacity. Without an offensive posture on compute access, venture capital architecture, and tax reform, Australia risks becoming exactly what the Prime Minister warned against: still a data warehouse, but perhaps a very well-powered one.

### Australia's AI Bargain: Capital Without Control
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/australias-ai-bargain-capital-without-control
- Published: 2026-06-11
- Author: Venture Insights

Australia is absorbing large-scale AI infrastructure investment — led by Anthropic and Microsoft — under a policy framework that is deliberately non-binding. The National AI Plan (2026) positions Australia as a destination for foreign AI capital but imposes no mandatory guardrails on frontier AI deployment, data centre energy use, or workforce displacement. This brief argues that the current settings transfer economic risk to Australia while ceding strategic control to a small number of US-based corporations.

### 21.6% Decline for Cogent Leads Mixed Digital Infrastructure Performance in May 2026
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/digital-infrastructure-may-2026-commentary
- Published: 2026-06-03
- Author: Venture Insights

The digital infrastructure sector saw divergent performance in May 2026, characterized by aggressive capital raising and strategic divestments. Cogent Communications led the downside with a 21.6% decline following a major asset sale, while Nextdc rose 7.0% on the back of a significant $1.8 billion debt expansion and successful equity raise.

### Digital Infrastructure Surges in April 2026 on Record Data Center Utilization and Graphene Breakthroughs
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/digital-infrastructure-april-2026-commentary
- Published: 2026-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

### 2026 New Zealand Data Centre Outlook - investment surge boosts capacity growth
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/2026-nz-data-centre-outlook
- Published: 2026-03-06
- Author: David Kennedy

New Zealand's digital infrastructure is currently experiencing a significant acceleration in capital inflow. The market is rapidly evolving from a geographically isolated digital terminus into a strategic transit hub, supported by a mix of global hyperscalers, local telecommunications incumbents, and specialist operators. This report explores the drivers, constraints, and forecasts for the New Zealand data centre market through 2030.

### Google’s Grand Reset - From Search Giant to Sovereign System
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/google-grand-reset-sovereign-system
- Published: 2025-06-20
- Author: David Kennedy

Google is no longer just a search engine - it’s positioning itself as the digital operating system for life. This pivot is not merely technological - it represents a deliberate attempt to reshape the digital economy around a proprietary, AI-first ecosystem. This will radically reshape how users discover content, make decisions, and interact online. For Australia and New Zealand, this transformation carries profound risks: collapsing media revenues, deeper dependence on foreign infrastructure, and eroded digital sovereignty. This report unpacks Google’s strategic ambitions, the threat to Australia’s and New Zealand’s open web and telco sectors, and the scope for broader economic entrapment via software and cloud licensing. Without bold regulatory intervention, we face a future locked into a high-cost, low-control digital ecosystem controlled from offshore. The implications for Australia and New Zealand are significant, echoing two strategic vulnerabilities Venture Insights has previously flagged: the erosion of media diversity (Appendix A) and an overdependence on foreign digital infrastructure (Appendix B).

### Digital Infrastructure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/digital-infrastructure-valuation-benchmarking-dec-2024
- Published: 2024-12-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report provides a comprehensive performance and valuation benchmark for the digital infrastructure sector as of December 2024. It tracks share price movements, valuation metrics including EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA, and growth profiles for key players like Nextdc, Digital Realty, and Equinix. The analysis highlights a significant performance spread, with Adisyn gaining 156.5% over 12 months while Global Data Centre and DigitalBridge saw declines. Valuation multiples remain highly sensitive to forward revenue and EBITDA growth projections across the peer group.

### Digital Infrastructure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/digital-infrastructure-valuation-metrics-may-2024
- Published: 2024-05-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the digital infrastructure sector as of May 2024, focusing on valuation metrics and share price performance for key global players. It highlights a significant performance gap, with Uniti Group (US) achieving a 93.5% 12-month share price increase while Chorus saw a 13.6% decline. The analysis utilizes EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, and EV/EBIT multiples to benchmark companies like Equinix, Nextdc, and Digital Realty against industry averages.

### Power challenge will drive data centre innovation
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/power-challenge-data-centre-innovation
- Published: 2024-04-01
- Author: Eduardo Fichmann

This report analyses the critical energy challenges facing the data centre industry as it transitions to support high-density AI workloads. While the sector maintains double-digit growth, traditional facilities designed for 3-5 kW per rack are ill-equipped for the 20 kW requirements of modern AI hardware. The analysis explores emerging cooling technologies, the strategic shift toward renewable energy procurement to meet sustainability targets, and the rise of specialized platforms like Verrus that utilize dynamic power allocation and battery storage.

### Digital Infrastructure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/digital-infrastructure-valuation-performance-summary
- Published: 2024-03-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report provides a comprehensive performance and valuation analysis of the digital infrastructure sector, focusing on key players like Equinix, Nextdc, and Digital Realty. It tracks share price changes over 1-month and 12-month periods, highlighting Global Data Centre's 70.3% annual surge. The analysis evaluates valuation metrics including EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA for FY24 and FY25, correlating these multiples against revenue and EBITDA growth forecasts to identify market leaders and laggards in the current fiscal cycle.

### Digital Infrastructure
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/digital-infrastructure-valuation-performance-fy25
- Published: 2024-02-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the digital infrastructure sector's financial performance, focusing on share price volatility and valuation multiples for FY24 and FY25. Global Data Centre emerged as the top 12-month performer with a 58.0% increase, while Adisyn saw a significant 52.9% jump in just one month. The analysis evaluates EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, and EV/EBIT metrics across key players including Equinix, Nextdc, and Digital Realty to provide a benchmark for sector growth and valuation trends.

### Do EVs change everything, and by when?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/ev-adoption-australia-2050-forecast
- Published: 2019-08-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the trajectory of Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption in Australia, forecasting a transition to a near-total electric fleet by 2050. It examines the economic drivers, including a decline in battery prices and lower running costs compared to internal combustion engines. The analysis further explores the integration of EVs into household energy systems as backup batteries and the critical role of charging infrastructure and zero-emissions public transport in urban planning.

### Do batteries change everything, and by when?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/australia-household-battery-forecast-2050
- Published: 2019-06-25
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report examines the role of household batteries in the Australian residential electricity market. It forecasts that battery take-up will reach approximately 30% by 2030 and 65% by 2050, driven by declining technology costs and the emergence of aggregation models like Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). The analysis highlights that while current adoption remains in early stages with only ~2,600 batteries integrated into VPPs, the technology represents a fundamental shift for the entire electricity supply chain.

### Batteries powering our residential homes?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/australia-residential-battery-solar-outlook-2030
- Published: 2019-06-01
- Author: Pooja Mallard

This report analyses the Australian residential battery storage market, forecasting that 27% of households will have batteries installed by 2030. With solar PV penetration expected to reach 50-55%, the combination of solar and storage will significantly impact grid demand, potentially reducing consumption by 15% over the next decade. The analysis focuses on economic drivers, specifically the 'tipping point' where battery payback periods reach 4-6 years, incentivising mass market adoption across key Australian states.

### Wind Farms – Adding wind to Australia’s energy sails
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/australia-wind-farm-energy-market-analysis
- Published: 2018-01-01
- Author: Paul Simos

This report analyses the Australian wind energy sector, highlighting its role as a leading source of renewable power. In 2016, wind supplied 5.3% of Australia's total electricity and 30.8% of its renewable supply. Despite policy uncertainty following the Coalition government's move to end subsidies after 2020, falling costs and technological improvements in turbine size and location selection ensure wind remains a critical, cost-effective component of Australia's future energy mix, including emerging offshore opportunities.

### AEMO Report – exacerbating our issues not finding solutions
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/aemo-report-energy-policy-critique
- Published: 2017-09-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyzes the AEMO's findings on the National Electricity Market (NEM), specifically the urgent need for 1,000 MW of dispatchable capacity following the scheduled 2022 closure of the Liddell Power Station. It critiques the government's reactionary stance, arguing that current policy adds to market hysteria rather than incentivizing appropriate generation assets. The analysis highlights a failure to prioritize demand-side management, which could offer a cheaper alternative to capital-intensive supply interventions that risk becoming stranded assets.

### ‘Charging’ ahead – Five key trends reshaping the electricity industry
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/five-trends-reshaping-electricity-industry
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report identifies five key disruptive trends upending the traditional A$39bn Australian retail electricity industry. Rapid technological advances in battery storage, which saw a 65% price decline between 2010 and 2015, are enabling the rise of 'prosumers' and distributed networks. As solar and wind become cheaper than fossil fuels, the industry is evolving from a simple power supply model into a complex platform for multiple players in a digital, distributed, and personalised ecosystem.

### Snowy Hydro 2.0: Good but not enough?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/snowy-hydro-expansion-analysis
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Sarah Kasher

This report analyses the proposed Snowy Hydro 2.0 expansion, a $2 billion project intended to alleviate the Australian energy crisis by adding 2,000 megawatts of peak load capacity. While the project is a significant step toward stabilizing the grid and supporting renewable energy integration, it faces substantial hurdles including a 4-year minimum construction timeframe and technical risks that could delay completion by an additional 2 years. The analysis weighs the benefits of pumped hydro against alternative solutions like battery storage and demand-side management.

### The Finkel Review - A politically acceptable outcome for now?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/finkel-review-energy-market-analysis
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the Finkel Review's blueprint for Australia's National Electricity Market, contrasting its conservative modelling against CSIRO's disruptive technology forecasts. While Finkel recommends a Clean Energy Target to incentivise low-emissions generation, the review's assumptions on electric vehicle adoption and solar PV growth appear conservative. The analysis suggests that declining technology costs and behavioral economics will likely drive a more rapid shift toward renewables than the review's 'politically acceptable' middle path suggests.

### Batteries have become the mainstream solution to the energy crisis
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/batteries-mainstream-solution-energy-crisis
- Published: 2017-04-01
- Author: Sharmeline Jayamanne

This report examines the transformation of the Australian electricity industry following the 2016 South Australian blackout. It details the shift from centralized fossil fuel models to decentralized renewable solutions, highlighted by the state's $550 million Energy Plan. The analysis covers the impact of coal plant closures, such as the 1,600 MW Hazelwood facility, and the entry of new technology disruptors like Tesla and Carnegie Energy into a market representing $46 billion in annual revenues.

### Disruption In: Transport
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-infrastructure/disruption-in-transport-australia-2016
- Published: 2016-05-19
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the three macro-disruptive trends set to transform the Australian transport industry over the next ten years: Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), Big Data, and clean vehicle technologies. With the sector contributing A$40.9bn to the economy (3% of GDP), the analysis explores how increased vehicle interconnection and digitisation will address the A$16.5bn social cost of congestion. It evaluates market concentration across road, rail, aviation, and maritime subsectors while forecasting the impact of autonomous vehicles and electric adoption on traditional industry structures.

## Digital Economy

### SUBMISSION on the Interim Report of the “Harnessing data and digital technology” inquiry: Promoting microeconomic reform for a sustainable AI ecosystem
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/submission-harnessing-data-digital-technology-inquiry
- Published: 2025-09-12
- Author: David Kennedy

The Productivity Commission's Interim Report on "Harnessing data and digital technology" floated a proposal to create a Text and Data Mining (TDM) exception to copyright law to fuel AI development.

### An Industry Explainer on the Australian Copyright System
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/australian-copyright-system-industry-explainer
- Published: 2025-08-19
- Author: Venture Insights

This industry explainer outlines the foundational principles of the Australian copyright system, including the idea/expression dichotomy and the requirements for originality and material form. It details the various categories of protected material under the Copyright Act 1968 and provides a breakdown of protection durations. Furthermore, the report maps the complex ecosystem of government bodies and collecting societies while addressing the significant legal tensions introduced by the rise of generative Artificial Intelligence.

### Productivity Commission Misfires on Content Ownership in the AI Economy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/productivity-commission-ai-copyright-misfire
- Published: 2025-08-11
- Author: David Kennedy

The Productivity Commission's (PC’s) interim report, "Harnessing data and digital technology," released on 5 August 2025, proposes amending the Copyright Act to Include a Fair Dealing Exception for Text and Data Mining (“TDM Exception”). The proposal has triggered a firestorm of criticism from rights holders, including musicians, visual artists, and publishers, who argue that the innovation benefits of better informed AI technology do not justify the transfer of property rights. The vociferous reaction makes sense because the AI companies’ conduct has already been questionable; while lobbying for relief from copyright, AI companies are knowingly using copyright material for training without regard for the legalities. This report examines whether a new 'fair dealing' exemption should be granted to technology companies to train AI models using copyrighted material in order to promote AI innovation. In our view, the Australian Government (and also the New Zealand Government) should be wary of making concessions to the global AI operators. Instead of proposing exemptions, the Productivity Commission should promote streamlined marketplaces where buyers and sellers of intellectual property can negotiate mutually beneficial deals - not one-sided exemptions that will primarily benefit foreign technology firms at the expense of local creative industries.

### Trade Wars, Market Turmoil: Australia’s Digital Imperative - and Opportunity
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/trade-wars-market-turmoil-australia-s-digital-imperative-and-opportunity
- Published: 2025-03-19
- Author: David Kennedy

The OECD has downgraded global GDP growth due to escalating trade tensions, primarily driven by U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. Financial markets have sharply declined, while the risk of a U.S. recession continues to rise. The real threat is its dependence on U.S. tech giants, which imposes substantial economic costs outside traditional trade figures (see our report “”). Australia will not escape the effects of the economic slowdown. What makes us see this as an opportunity? Australia’s low trade exposure to the U.S. market gives it freedom to respond that other countries lack. With global uncertainty growing, Australia has the opportunity to adopt a more strategic trade and technology policy to safeguard its economic future.

### Monthly Economics Summary
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/monthly-economics-summary-july-2023
- Published: 2023-07-14
- Author: Venture Insights

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Australian economic landscape as of July 2023, highlighting a significant slowdown in GDP growth to 0.2% for Q1 2023. Key indicators such as the cash rate target reaching 4.10% and annual CPI holding at 7.00% suggest a tightening fiscal environment. The summary also tracks financial market performance across the ASX200, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500, noting a general recovery trend despite broader macroeconomic headwinds and low consumer sentiment.

### Half Year Results Summary 2022
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/nab-1h22-results-summary
- Published: 2022-05-05
- Author: Ross McEwan

This report summarizes National Australia Bank's (NAB) financial performance for the first half of 2022, highlighting a 4.1% increase in cash earnings to $3,480 million. Revenue rose 4.6% on the back of 10% growth in lending and 12% growth in deposits compared to March 2021. Despite competitive pressures reducing the Net Interest Margin by 11 basis points to 1.63%, the bank maintained a strong capital position with a CET1 ratio of 12.48% and announced an interim dividend of 73 cents per share.

### Elephant in the room? No energy policy
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/elephant-room-no-energy-policy
- Published: 2019-08-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report reviews the energy component of Infrastructure Australia’s 2019 Audit, highlighting the critical lack of a coherent federal energy policy. While electricity prices have risen 63% in the past decade, the Audit identifies 11 major challenges but only 8 opportunities. Venture Insights argues that the transition to renewables and distributed energy (solar and batteries) represents a significant economic opportunity that is currently being inhibited by policy uncertainty and a continued focus on legacy fossil fuel assets.

### Green Hydrogen – Opportunity or hype?
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/green-hydrogen-australia-energy-opportunity
- Published: 2017-11-01
- Author: Vinay Chhoda

This report analyses the potential for green hydrogen to transform Australia's A$39bn electricity market. As large-capacity fossil fuel generators reach the end of their economic lives, hydrogen offers a clean, flexible option for overcoming intermittency in renewable energy. The analysis explores four key transformation areas: network integration, industrial electrification, export market development, and natural gas network decarbonisation. While long-term benefits are compelling, significant hurdles remain regarding infrastructure investment, policy coordination, and the current high cost of extraction via electrolysis.

### Energy Roundtable Breakfast – key findings
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/australia-energy-future-2030-scenarios
- Published: 2017-10-01
- Author: Nigel Pugh

This report analyses the key findings from a 2017 roundtable discussing Australia's energy landscape in 2030. It identifies that while technological advancements in the last 15 years facilitate a more efficient market, political inertia and the behavior of industry incumbents remain primary bottlenecks. The analysis explores four scenarios ranging from a 'Renewable Utopia' with over 80% clean energy to a 'Nuclear Future' providing 80% of generation, highlighting the critical need for long-term policy certainty to drive private investment.

### Residential rooftop solar set to soar
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/residential-rooftop-solar-soar-forecast
- Published: 2017-08-01
- Author: Sharmeline Jayamanne

This report analyses the accelerating adoption of residential rooftop solar PV in Australia, which currently sits at 17% penetration. Driven by a 10-20% expected increase in retail electricity prices between 2017 and 2020, households are increasingly turning to solar for cost savings rather than ideological reasons. The analysis forecasts that penetration will reach 30% by 2030 and eventually plateau at 45-50% by 2050 as larger, more efficient systems reduce payback periods and improve household energy independence.

### Global landscape: US, China lead race to become DNA superpower
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/us-china-dna-superpower-race
- Published: 2017-06-01
- Author: Venture Insights

This report examines the competitive landscape of the global genomics sector, highlighting the leadership of the US and China. Global financing for genomics reached US$1.3b in 2016, marking the third consecutive year of investment exceeding US$1b. The analysis focuses on the China Precision Medicine Initiative, valued at US$9.2b, and the US Precision Medicine Initiative (All of Us Research Program) worth US$215m, detailing how these government-led programs are driving innovation in personalized healthcare and genomic services.

### Beyond Bitcoin: The implications of the rapid rise of Blockchain technology
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/beyond-bitcoin-blockchain-financial-disruption
- Published: 2016-06-01
- Author: Justin Jameson

This report analyses the rapid evolution of blockchain technology from its origins in Bitcoin to its current application in wholesale financial services. With investment growing from US$3m in 2011 to nearly US$500m in 2015, the technology promises to disintermediate traditional gatekeepers by enabling peer-to-peer verification. The analysis explores the shift toward private, permissioned blockchains among Tier 1 institutions and the potential for commercial rollouts as early as 2017, while highlighting regulatory and liquidity risks.

### US and UK TV ad markets – apples and pears
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-economy/us-uk-tv-ad-markets-comparison
- Published: 2015-05-07
- Author: Daniel Blair

This report analyses the structural and operational differences between the US and UK television advertising markets, challenging the assumption that digital media growth will have identical effects on both sides of the Atlantic. While both regions face steep declines in younger audience viewing, the UK market exhibits higher digital maturity and lower TV adspend per capita. The study highlights that US TV adspend is 11 times larger than the UK, with significantly higher advertising clutter and different regulatory constraints on airtime supply.

## Digital Regulation

### Public broadcasting role in news ecosystem will grow
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/public-broadcasting-role-news-ecosystem-growth
- Published: 2024-08-30
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the increasing importance of public broadcasting within the Australian news ecosystem. As commercial media organisations face declining advertising revenues and reduced news-gathering capacity, particularly in regional markets, the role of the ABC and SBS is set to expand. The analysis highlights that social media misinformation and the rise of generative AI content pose national security risks, requiring the Federal Government to prioritize public broadcasting as a key pillar of media policy to maintain democratic engagement and reliable reporting.

### Gambling crackdown exposes broadcast policy gap
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/gambling-crackdown-broadcast-policy-gap
- Published: 2024-08-09
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Federal Government's proposed crackdown on gambling advertising and its disproportionate impact on the free-to-air (FTA) television sector. With the gambling industry spending approximately $186m on television advertising in 2022, new restrictions including a cap of two ads per hour and bans around live sports could cost broadcasters $40m annually. The brief argues that these piecemeal reforms, coupled with the denial of spectrum tax relief, threaten the long-term sustainability of the Australian broadcasting policy framework.

### TV broadcast shutdown on the agenda in New Zealand
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/nz-tv-broadcast-shutdown-agenda
- Published: 2024-07-12
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the New Zealand Ministry for Culture & Heritage's briefing regarding a transition strategy for the free-to-air (FTA) TV industry. The proposed shift moves away from digital terrestrial transmission (DTT) toward a fully online delivery model. While TVNZ aims for a digital-first status by 2030, significant obstacles remain in rural connectivity. The brief also compares these developments with the Australian market, where geography and broadband diversity make a near-term migration less likely.

### Regional TV’s crisis: a new approach needed
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/regional-tv-crisis-new-approach
- Published: 2024-07-05
- Author: David Kennedy

This report examines the precarious state of regional TV broadcasting in Australia, highlighted by the recent shutdown of Network Ten services in Mildura. It identifies irreversible structural trends in video entertainment and advertising markets, such as the expansion of metropolitan BVOD services and rising transmission costs, which are eroding regional ad revenues. The analysis argues that current media policy objectives, particularly access to local news, are at risk, necessitating urgent government intervention and a rethink of regional broadcasting support.

### No Budget comfort for FTA TV on spectrum tax
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/no-budget-comfort-fta-tv-spectrum-tax
- Published: 2024-05-24
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the increasing financial pressure on Australia's free-to-air (FTA) television industry following the lack of regulatory relief in the recent Federal Budget. With advertising revenues forecast to decline by 9% in FY24 following an 8% drop in FY23, the industry remains burdened by the CPI-indexed Commercial Broadcasting Tax (CBT). The brief examines why the CBT is now considered a relic of 2017 reforms and the risks associated with delaying its removal during a broader five-year media sector review.

### NZ Newshub closure a shock to the system
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/nz-newshub-closure-industry-brief
- Published: 2024-03-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the closure of Warner Bros. Discovery’s Newshub newsroom in New Zealand, a move resulting in the loss of over 250 jobs. The decision follows a significant decline in the local TV advertising market, which has dropped NZ$100 million since mid-2022. The brief examines the structural shifts in global online media that are eroding free-to-air TV viewing and the resulting implications for news diversity and government policy in both New Zealand and Australia.

### Remote TV is still a policy pain point
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/remote-tv-policy-pain-point-vast
- Published: 2023-05-10
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the Australian Government's 7-year funding commitment to the Viewer Access Satellite TV (VAST) service, which provides the only television signal for over 1.5 million people. While the funding offers stability, the report highlights critical challenges including the financial instability of Indigenous broadcaster Imparja TV and the looming obsolescence of over 118 terrestrial retransmission sites. It argues that satellite transmission subsidies alone cannot resolve the broader policy pain points regarding remote area media participation.

### VOZ launches, but a privacy reform is a threat
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/voz-launch-privacy-reform-threat
- Published: 2023-04-17
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the 1 May launch of the Virtual Australia (VOZ) ratings system, a critical milestone for the Australian TV industry. While VOZ enables accurate de-duplicated measurement across traditional broadcast and BVOD apps like 7plus and 10 Play, the Australian Government’s privacy review poses a significant threat. Proposed restrictions on third-party data trading and de-identified information could undermine targeted advertising effectiveness, potentially disadvantaging local broadcasters against global platforms like Google that possess vast first-party data troves.

### Broadcast TV policy needs a rethink
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/broadcast-tv-policy-rethink-australia
- Published: 2023-03-27
- Author: David Kennedy

This report analyses the critical role of free-to-air (FTA) broadcasting in meeting Australian policy objectives under the Broadcasting Services Act. While online viewing growth on SVOD and AVOD platforms has disrupted global markets, approximately 15% of Australian households remain without fixed broadband, making traditional broadcast indispensable for universal availability. The brief argues that current 'harmonisation' efforts and spectrum shifts toward telecommunications operators threaten the economic viability of the FTA industry and its ability to deliver local content.

### Regional commercial TV in Australia: challenges and opportunities
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/regional-commercial-tv-australia-challenges-opportunities
- Published: 2021-09-01
- Author: David Kennedy

This report reviews the current situation of the regional television industry and analyses potential solutions to the challenges it faces. It concludes that ongoing viability is difficult to foresee under current regulatory and commercial settings. The growth of competition from online alternatives and metropolitan networks' broadcast video-on-demand (BVOD) services will inevitably erode regional advertising revenues. The industry faces structural problems, including high transmission costs and declining viewer minutes, that require immediate structural solutions from the Federal Government.

### Australian’s long-awaited media reforms pass
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/australian-media-reforms-pass-senate
- Published: 2017-10-01
- Author: Hamish Cruden

This report analyses the passage of the Australian Government's comprehensive media reform package in September 2017. Following three months of negotiations, the bill passed the Senate 31-27 with cross-bench support. Key changes include the removal of the 75% audience reach rule and the 'two-out-of-three' rule, alongside new local content obligations and a $60 million innovation package for regional and small publishers. The reforms aim to enable a pathway to scale for traditional media businesses facing industry headwinds.

### Australian media reforms are sensible ...but they come far too late
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/australian-media-reforms-analysis-2017
- Published: 2017-05-01
- Author: Gabbi Stubbs

This report analyzes the Australian Government's 2017 media reform package, which includes the abolition of broadcast license fees and the repeal of the 'two out of three' and '75% audience reach' rules. While the reforms provide a $90m annual net benefit to Free-to-Air players and unlock a decade of stalled industry consolidation, they do not alter the market fundamentals where global platforms like Facebook, Google, and Netflix continue to capture increasing shares of the sector's profit pools.

### FLASH – Foxtel-Ten…content is king and the #1 issue for the ACCC
- URL: https://ventureinsights.com.au/research/digital-regulation/accc-delays-foxtel-ten-decision
- Published: 2015-09-16
- Author: Dan Blair

This report analyses the ACCC's Statement of Issues regarding Foxtel's proposed 15% acquisition of Ten and Ten's 24.99% acquisition of MCN. The regulator identifies three primary competition concerns, with the acquisition of premium sports content cited as the most significant threat to market dynamics. Venture Insights evaluates the likelihood of regulatory intervention, noting that the ACCC intends to announce its final decision by 22 October 2015, potentially requiring structural changes to the deal.